🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Farmlands]

The notion that LIVRE is going to potentially expel their one MP they worked so hard to elect over an Israel/Palestine vote is pretty telling about how serious of a contender the party can be. I think their voters will go to PAN or BE if the party continues to not get itself together.

It's been a hilarious trainwreck to watch from here. As someone who was once considering voting for them in the next European elections, due to their pro-EU stance: no way, no how. They've proven themselves to be one of the most incompetent elected parties in Portugal's history.

[Farmlands]

Seems as if there might be quite a couple of social issues likely to pass through with this Parliament, compared to its predecessor, given its bigger left majority. I look forward to this bill passing, as are many PSD voters I know. I'm also personally hoping for marijuana legalisation to be the next issue discussed on the table.

[Farmlands]

Euthanasia debate: Conservative forces are pushing for a national referendum.

Many conservative groups and the Catholic Church are pushing for a referendum to be held on the matter of euthanasia. The probably victory for the Yes side in Parliament, is making many rightwing groups to defend a referendum as the only way to stop the legalization of euthanasia. The PSD will also discuss a possible support for a referendum, even though leader Rui Rio isn't very favourable of it, but has said he will accept the party's base choice.

The media is also reporting that the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is also very concerned about a possible Yes victory in Parliament and also wants a referendum.

IMO, if a referendum does happen, a similar situation like the 1998 abortion referendum could happen: a majority of the population in favour, but low interest and low turnout will favour the most motivated voter base, the No side. We'll see.

I think you could be underestimating how much the country has moved to the left, in terms of social issues, in the past 20 or so years. It's a similar situation to Ireland in my view, in that we also have a history richly influenced by Catholicism, but people no longer hold the conservative values that usually come with it, as seen in their referendums.

[Farmlands]

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF on the popularity of political leaders:

PM António Costa' job approval:

60% Approve (+7)
32% Disapprove (-8 )
  8% Undecided (+1)

Government' job approval:

47% Average (+5)
33% Approve (+3)
20% Disapprove (-8 )

Opposition' job approval:

48% Average (+18 )
35% Disapprove (-26)
17% Approve (+8 )

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa' job approval:

85% Approve (-2)
15% Disapprove (+2)

Poll conducted between 13 and 21 March 2020. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

It seems like the US is an outlier when it comes to country leaders seeing their approval ratings massively improve in relation to this crisis. And in my opinion, Costa deserves it too, since he's been very responsible and objective in his appearances whenever he's addressing the nation. I'm glad most of our party leaders are competent politicians.

[Farmlands]

During yesterday morning, the word "Decolonization" was sprayed in the statue and many parts of the statue were also sprayed.

This is so stupid, Father António Vieira was a defender of Jewish people, slaves and the opressed, who frequently spoke out against colonisation and the evils of the Inquisition. Just because he was a priest in the medieval times doesn't mean he's a symbol of the powerful and opression.

[Farmlands]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa slaps PS and PSD by vetoing several new parliamentary rules like fewer debates about Europe and the increase of signatures needed to petitions to be discussed.

Smaller parties applauded the President' decision while PS and PSD haven't made an official comment. If the main parties don't change the rules, the President can only use the power of veto 2 more times and if no changes occur, the new rules become permanent. However, it's somewhat expected that PS and PSD will make changes in the new rules.

Thank God for the President. Without his veto, I have no doubt that the big two parties would continually try to get rid of norms and procedures unfavourable to them, practically the only time they ever get together to do something now. Goes to show the importance of checks and balances in a healthy, functioning democracy.

[Farmlands]

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV on the 2021 presidential election:

Vote share %:

56.2% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-4.1)
17.2% Ana Gomes (+3.2)
 8.2% André Ventura (-1.2)
 6.1% Marisa Matias (-0.1)
 2.6% João Ferreira (-0.3)
 1.5% Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (+1.0)
  4.1% None
  4.1% Undecided

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 October 2020. Polled 609 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

So basically zero chance this could become competitive?

Pretty much. Firstly, Marcelo is a lot more warm and personable than our previous president, which alone should net him some votes. Also, he has used his veto power extremely competently, in my opinion, only voting down what were really bad measures, like a self-serving Party financing bill.

[Farmlands]

Numbers a bit different compared with the RTP poll. However, Marisa Matias, like the RTP poll, isn't polling well within her own electorate, and CDS is really divided. Also, Ventura is able to attract 8% of the Communist electorate.

You can count me in as a BE-Marcelo voter. I strongly respect both the man and the job he's been doing so far. As for Ventura, it's exactly what's happening in other parts of the world, with rural voters taking a hard turn towards nationalist parties recently, though a much slower shift here.

[Farmlands]

Well, that's a pretty clear statement... Not really what I hoped for though. Doesn't seem like it will ever be able to go past Marcelo, no matter what the parliament does, right? Maybe the national referendum on euthanasia really is the only way forward.

[Farmlands]

Two interesting articles about the last stronghold for the Communists in Portugal:


https://www.politico.eu/article/red-flag-flying-portugal-communist-party-election/

https://www.publico.pt/2011/01/29/jornal/avis-o-concelho-irredutivel-do-pcp-nasceu-na-reforma-agraria-21160443

There's little reason to vote PCP if you're socially progressive when you have the Left Bloc. Plus, like in Ireland, there's been a big change on attitudes towards social issues, propelled by younger people. And with Chega now in the mix in some rural areas, I don't see the PCP performing better any time soon.

[Farmlands]

Uhm, not a good timing for snap elections now that Portugal is slowly coming out of the pandemic and the possibility of rising infections over the cold season. Hopefully Costa can win a functioning majority this time.

Covid numbers have been consistently low recently and vaccination rates very high, it's unlikely that will be too much of an issue. Of course, the big news here is the budget crisis. It's just surprising that the PS made it work for 4 years with a much smaller range of options, before 2019, but couldn't do it again now.

[Farmlands]

Can confirm my ballot looked like this.

Voted at around 2pm; I was the only voter at my polling station in exurban/rural Ribatejo, with literally no other voter nowhere in sight. First time voting in Portugal in years so was a tad surprised; was told this wasn't too unusual for this time of the day but that turnout seems a bit lower. Poll workers were wearing plastic coverall suits and the place was extremely white inside, which gave the thing a slightly dystopian vibe.  

If you voted in those Estado Novo style schools, they are all painted white. Polling workers have to use those suits because of infected people that could show up. It's recommended to vote after 6pm, but you never know.

Are you sure? Fortunately, everyone was dressed normally in both the poll stations I went to today here in Porto, with the disinfectant at the entrance, and I wasn't aware it was supposed to be any other way.

[Farmlands]

Any theories as to which parties are helped or hurt by a high turnout?

Well, we have had low and high turnout elections, and there isn't a clear pattern: we've had low turnout elections with PS and PSD victories, and high turnout elections with PS and PSD victories. Plus, there's few data on who's showing up to vote. If it's more younger voters, the rightwing parties will be benefited, but if there's also a high turnout on the elderly, the leftwing, and specially the PS, are the main benefited.

Are young voters more right-wing because of IL and Chega? I'm asking because PSD comes off as such a dull, charmless party that it would be strange to see it do well among young people.

The subtext here is that it is 'usual' for parties alligned with the left to do well with the youth. But it is also worth remembering that (sometimes once) big Socialist/Labour/SPD-style parties in Europe are often pensioner parties. There are are variety of reasons for this that have been discussed elsewhere, but this feature is why some parties like the PvDA are in seemingly terminal decline and the youth is nested with other parties.

One unique reason why this exists in Portugal though is cause if you are over 60 years old, you are likely to have spent some time of your life before, during, or right after the Revolution, which will forever color an individuals perspective in a way unimaginable to subsequent generations.

It's pretty common here that whoever senior people first voted for after the Carnation Revolution is the party they've stuck with for all their life, as I can personally attest to. In my grandma's case, she's a convicted egalitarian, so that's the PS.

[Farmlands]

It seems the Right-wing vote went up significantly but could not stop as likely PS majority.

The problem for them, but mostly the PSD, is that the D'Hondt system rewards the kind of left-wing unification behind the PS that seems to have taken place, while not favoring a fragmentation of the vote between the right parties.