🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[crals]

Costa is having a 2nd Christmas honestly

[crals]

My grandpa thinks that with Rio re-elected as PSD leader and the CDS still in freefall, Chega and IL will surely gain votes. Just thought it was an interesting prediction.

Chega is jumping from controversy to controversy and IL fell under the radar, with CDS moving into their space a bit. So far I don't think they'll be making a big breakthrough.

[crals]

Some resignations today:

Abel Matos Santos, deputy leader of CDS, who was under fire for praising Salazar, PIDE and calling Aristides Sousa Mendes as a "Jew moneylender", resigned today after just 2 weeks in the job.

around 2 years and half ago, you writed:

PNR is the only party that publicly hails Salazar or fells nostalgic about the Estado Novo regime.
 
Basically every time the PSD or PSD/CDS are in power, the leftwing parties, and some times the PS, portrait PSD and CDS as the "heirs" of Salazar. But no one really buys that. It's just stupid.


So was not full true

It is true. AMS had to resign because of how outlandish those remarks were for CDS. I don't think even Chega would tolerate them.

[crals]

Ferro Rodrigues is only helping Chega with these antics.

[crals]

Early summary of the Azores regional elections, to be held on late September/mid October:

Polls in Azores are quite rare as it is very difficult to poll because of the big population disparity in the region, but in the last few elections the PSD has polled around 30% almost always, PS polls around 40%, but here's the doubt as they can rise to 44% or more and secure their majority. The Covid-19 management of the regional government can also favour incumbency. CDS seems to be losing steam and could be surpassed by BE, in my opinion. CDU could drop to sixth place and PAN will likely win a seat this time. PPM will hold their seat in Corvo. I believe no other party will receive enough votes to elect seats.

Using the 2019 elections as a model, here's the results:

2020 Azores election projection, using the 2019 general election results:

Vote share % and seats: (29 needed for a majority)

40.1% PS, 28/29 seats (-1/-2)
30.2% PSD, 19/20 (0/+1)
  8.0% BE, 4 (+2)
  4.8% CDS, 2 (-2)
  2.7% PAN, 1 (+1)
  2.4% CDU, 1 (nc)
  0.9% Livre, 0
  0.9% Alliance, 0
  0.8% CHEGA, 0
  0.7% IL, 0
  0.5% PPM, 1 (nc)
  8.0% Others/Invalid

36.5% Turnout
  
PS wins 8 islands
PSD wins 1 island  

Using these results, the PS could hold on or lose their majority by the slimmest of margins. It all depends on the Compensation' 5 seats, as both PS and PSD will fight for one seat, according to my analysis of the 2019 results

But, again, the Covid-19 management could affect voting intentions as Azores is one of the least hit regions of the country. I would like to hear Crals opinion as he is from the Azores and has a more in depth knowledge of Azorean politics.

As elsewhere in the country, it's all about Covid at the moment, and the regional government is perceived to be handling the situation well. But even regardless of that a PS victory is once again not really in doubt.

[crals]

If PSD win the next election (and there's no left-wing majority) I don't think they even need to talk to Chega to form a government. Ventura won't get in the way of bringing down the Socialist government.

As for CDS, I think it would make more sense for them to form a joint list with IL as the parties to the right of PSD and to the left of Chega, but I don't see it happening either as they're on opposite sides of certain culture wars such as euthanasia and cannabis.

[crals]

Ventura is a very intelligent and unprincipled man who saw his chance for power and took it. It's very obvious that he doesn't believe what he preaches in the slightest. However I don't understand his move saying he'll resign if Ana Gomes beats him. He couldn't have done her a bigger favor and I dare say he may have ensured that she will beat him.

Aside from both being female left-wingers with EU experience I don't see that much overlap between Marisa and Ana. Marisa is a standard BE candidate for BE voters and is essentially standing as the face of a party and focusing on their pet issues. Gomes has a much more widespread appeal and running as an independent with her reputation as a brave anti-corruption maverick rather than being a PS apparatchik is the strongest point in her favor.

[crals]

The Costa-Benfica controversy continues:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1304772425943576577

Government: Costa's support for Vieira opens controversy and raises doubts about violation of Code of Conduct

The story dominated the weekend and continues as of this morning. Costa's support for the reelection of Benfica President, Luís Filipe Vieira, which is currently being investigated for several corrupt and shady deals, is being condemned by pundits, parties and presidential candidates. Pundits suggest Costa made a huge mistake and don't understand why he did this, unless he thinks he's "teflon" and nothing will damage him. Some add that, nonetheless, he will regret deeply making this decision. The only two parties commentating on this affair were PSD and BE. PSD leader, Rui Rio, criticized Costa for mixing professional football with politics, adding the justice problems Mr Vieira has. BE leader, Catarina Martins, says it's shamefull the PM is supporting someone who left a hole of 200 million euros in the Novo Banco, and that taxpayers are paying it. In this regard, Mr Vieira is accused of damaging the Novo Banco by not paying 200 million euros in debts from his businesses.

Presidential candidate, Ana Gomes, has also hammered Costa for supporting Vieira saying she's shocked by the PM's decision and that she wants consequences from his actions. Many law experts also point that Costa is violating his own government code of conduct and the media is showing clips of Costa saying that ministers cannot forget they're still ministers even in coffee tables. This because Costa, when pressed by the media, says this has nothing to do with politics and that he's only supporting Mr. Vieira as a Benfica fan.  

Interesting how Chega is suddenly quiet about this

[crals]

It's more like 86 or 90 monarchists. And I don't think it's because Corvo is monarchist, the PPM MP in the Azores parliament is very popular and helps a lot the island in the regional parliament and his influence is strong there. The PS normally leads the vote in Corvo, but 4 years ago, in the 2016 regionals, it was basically a 3-way race between PS, PPM and PSD: 37% PS, 32% PPM, 26% PSD. We'll see what happens this year, but the PPM candidate will probably be reelected.

A town hall of voters is basically a forum where everybody living in the parish meets in a room, discuss topics and then vote by secret ballot on issues and for a new parish president. A report, from Jornal do Fundão, shows the scenes in a parish town hall in São João do Peso, Vila de Rei.

Well yes I know what a town hall is, and I have seen images of ones in Massachusetts I think, although I had no idea they existed in Portugal. Just I have never seen one in the flesh because they are not used here.

So the PPM representative has no actual ideology besides assuring the pork barrel for Corvo? Which would not be at all surprising to be honest.
[also, funny name; that word means raven in Italian too]

This applies to pretty much every relevant party in the Azores aside from the far-left. The Azorean PS, PSD and CDS are basically identical.

[crals]

My brother is undecided between Livre, IL, Aliança and (for tactical reasons) PSD. My mother, a lifelong CDS sympathizer, is voting PSD because, in her words, "CDS is over". Based on this purely anecdotal evidence, it does not bode well for CDS.

[crals]

My brother is undecided between Livre, IL, Aliança and (for tactical reasons) PSD. My mother, a lifelong CDS sympathizer, is voting PSD because, in her words, "CDS is over". Based on this purely anecdotal evidence, it does not bode well for CDS.

Your brother is a liberal who dislikes socialists I assume?

I hope your mother is right by the way, lol.

I think he's more anti-establishment than anything else tbh (and in the Azores the PS is effectively the establishment), he used to vote BE in the past, I also recall he supported Marinho e Pinto (MPT) in 2014, and his political opinions have fluctuated quite a lot. Indeed he dislikes PS (everyone in our family does tbh) but in Portugal that doesn't necessarily mean disliking socialism or the left as a whole.

Back in 2019 leftist Twitter rejoiced when CDS bombed and Cristas stepped down, which really puzzled me. CDS disappearing doesn't mean the space to the right of PSD will magically disappear too, it just means something else (probably worse) will fill that space, and indeed Chega and to a lesser extent IL are far more unsavory imo. Similarly Cristas getting the boot obviously led to a more conservative leadership (though less than expected).

In any case I still think/hope CDS will at least retain their seats for Terceira (their party leader) and São Jorge (their strongest island).

[crals]

Mixed feelings. PS losing the absolute majority after more than 2 decades of unchecked power would be great, but the possibility of a right-wing government with Chega is scary.

[crals]

Well, the geringonça is not just dead but buried now

[crals]

PPM doing shockingly well outside Corvo! Seems the exit poll was wrong about PAN winning a seat.

[crals]

PPM officially won a 2nd seat

[crals]

PPM officially won a 2nd seat

Do you think PAN and CDU will get a seat in the compensation district? It seems unlikely, right?

I agree, especially CDU is toast. They went from winning in Flores to getting 3% there, lol

[crals]

PPM officially won a 2nd seat

Do you think PAN and CDU will get a seat in the compensation district? It seems unlikely, right?

I agree, especially CDU is toast. They went from winning in Flores to getting 3% there, lol

Exactly, what the hell happened there?

Their popular incumbent MP didn't run, instead his sister was the lead candidate.

[crals]

Very interesting (and messy) result. The obvious PS+CDS majority isn't there either. Surprised both PAN and IL managed to get a seat.

[crals]

CDS are way too happy about their result for a party that lost a quarter of their seats

[crals]

CDS are way too happy about their result for a party that lost a quarter of their seats

Well, they survived. They're happy for just being alive.

Yeah, and 3rd place with 3 seats was realistically the best they could hope for. But still.

[crals]

Ventura is rejecting deals with PSD-Azores:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1320513083354292225

Ventura rejects agreements with the PSD in the Azores: "CHEGA doesn't govern with parties of the system"

Such a hypocrite, he was a proud member of PSD only a few years ago.

So a PS minority government it is. Will be interesting to see.

[crals]

The 2 indie MPs won't vote the budget down, which means it will pass the first reading.

[crals]

As an Azorean it bothers me that Ventura seems to think this is a matter for the national leadership to settle.

PSD leader Bolieiro was in Terceira today to negotiate with CDS leader Artur Lima. It seems PS and PSD are both trying to get PAN on their side. If Chega decides to abstain it will be up to the 1 PAN MP to decide who will govern.

[crals]

Wow CDU really is a sinking ship

[crals]

This is totally unsurprising imo. Like many other right-wing populist parties Chega is a combination of commited right-wingers who want influence and anti-system arsonists who just to protest. Ventura has been sitting on the fence trying to please both sides but it's no longer possible once they're given an opportunity for some power.