🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0 (Snap general election: 30 Jan 2022)
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crals
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« Reply #1875 on: January 13, 2022, 06:36:43 AM »

First of all, welcome to the forum Cheesy Smiley

You just summed up what PAN is. They seem like center-left, but their position is more like Syncretic, and actually they defend that the left-right divide is ancient history, and are willing to talk to either the PS or PSD, and their policies reflect that, but I'm of the opinion that they would work better with the PS rather than the PSD. But, the PS in this campaign isn't very keen in conceding stuff, and PAN is letting the door open to the PSD.
Thanks, long-time lurker but thought I'd finally start posting Smiley

Those are fair explanations, particularly about the PS making a conciliatory campaign difficult. It makes sense that they would want to avoid being pigeonholed as left wing in order to try to appeal to pro animal/environment voters who don't consider themselves as left wing (and there is already competition from more overtly eco-socialist parties on the left anyways), but it seems obvious they would get more of their agenda done with the left and the 'tax cuts combined with spending increases and more regulation' bit seems a tad populist/not well thought through.
I'd just like to add that PAN was not originally intended to be a left-wing party though. They were founded with a focus on environmentalism and animal rights obviously but also had cutting public spending and taxes as a goal. The parliamentary situation (and the fact the PS in practice adopted much of the right-wing's economic agenda anyway) led them to cooperate almost exclusively with the left-wing bloc for influence, but being perceived as becoming a generic left-wing party under the leadership of André Silva caused some friction within the party. Inês Sousa Real is basically going back to square one.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1876 on: January 13, 2022, 09:41:35 AM »

UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper:

Vote share %:

39% PS (+1)
30% PSD (-2)
  6% BE (nc)
  6% CHEGA (+1)
  5% CDU (-1)
  4% IL (-1)
  3% PAN (+1)
  2% CDS (nc)
  2% Livre (+1)
  3% Others/Invalid (nc)

Preferred PM:

49% António Costa (-3)
35% Rui Rio (+2)
16% Undecided (+1)

Poll conducted between 6 and 10 January 2022. Polled 1,246 voters. MoE of 2.80%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1877 on: January 13, 2022, 02:41:21 PM »
« Edited: January 13, 2022, 02:56:58 PM by Mike88 »

Less than a hour before the Rio vs Costa debate starts. The coverage so far looks like if it's a US Presidential debate...

If anyone is interested, and/or understands some Portuguese, here's some live feeds of the debate:

https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp3

https://cnnportugal.iol.pt/direto

I believe none are geo blocked.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1878 on: January 13, 2022, 06:17:46 PM »
« Edited: January 14, 2022, 07:19:23 AM by Mike88 »

Rio vs Costa debate: PS and PSD leaders clash of economics, NHS and taxes.


Quote
Differences between Costa and Rio were noticed after intense debate

Both PS and PSD leaders faced off in the only debate between them in this campaign. Rio started the debate by saying the PSD was a "civilized opposition" and helped the government during the pandemic, but pointed to the many failures of Costa as PM, from the economy to the NHS. Costa attacked Rio by saying that Mr Rio only thinks of numbers and of treating people's problems with lightness. Regarding election outcomes, Rio warned that if Costa fails to get a majority, he doesn't have anyone to talk to as, he said, Costa closed the doors to the left and right, and said that the PS would have a new leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, who could persue a PS-BE coalition government. Confronted with this, Costa was a bit vague and made his argument for an absolute majority, but said he's open to governing case by case or with the support of PAN. On the economy, Rio "trashed" the PS policies and accused Costa of putting Portugal on "the tail of Europe", highlighting that Portugal is being surpassed by former USSR countries. In his part, Costa promised tax cuts for families, while Rio continued to press on the bad economic record of the PS. On taxes, Costa accused Rio of not being trusted by people, while Rio accused Costa of having no plan at all.

Both also clashed on the minimum wage, with Costa accusing Rio of not wanting to raise the minimum wage, which was rejected by Rio. Costa proposed that the State should help businesses raise wages, but Rio rejected the policy accusing the PS of impoverishing the country. During the debate, Costa talked a lot about his 2022 draft budget, that was rejected, in which Rio joked that the 2022 PS budget is like the discovery of the path to India. On the NHS the differences was clear. To solve the problem of 1 million people without a family doctor, Rio proposed the creation of the "assistant doctor", in which patients would be treated in a private hospital until they have a doctor in the NHS. Costa trashed the policy and accused the PSD of wanting the middle class to pay for healthcare in which Rio responded by saying that 4 million people have private health insurance and that this is proof the system isn't working. On the Justice system, Costa accused Rio of trying to "control" judges with his policies, which was denied by Rio. The final topic was TAP airlines, with Costa defending the bailout and that the company is crucial for Portugal, while Rio said that the company charges ridiculous prices for air travels and that he will privatize the airline as fast as possible.

The full debate:

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Mike88
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« Reply #1879 on: January 13, 2022, 07:09:55 PM »

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal on who won the Rio vs Costa debate:

Q: Who won the debate?

42% Rui Rio
38% António Costa
20% Tie

Poll conducted on 13 January 2022 after the debate. Polled 260 voters. MoE of 6.17%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1880 on: January 14, 2022, 06:40:21 AM »

DA office is now investigating former Interior minister Eduardo Cabrita as a suspect for negligent homicide:


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Portugal - Eduardo Cabrita will be investigated on suspicion of negligent homicide in the hit-and-run case...

The DA office has reopened the investigation surrounding the deadly run over of a road worker by Eduardo Cabrita's official car in July 2021. Last December, the DA only accused Mr Cabrita's chauffeur of negligent homicide, but Cabrita's reaction to the accusation sparked fury and he resigned in disgrace, but now, the DA is now considering also accusing Mr Cabrita of negligent homicide. The DA says that in the previous accusation, some omissive conducts of the minister weren't investigated and now it's important to review all of the evidence and accuse, or not, the minister.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1881 on: January 14, 2022, 09:37:58 AM »
« Edited: January 14, 2022, 10:13:41 AM by Mike88 »

Rio vs Costa debate: PS and PSD leaders clash of economics, NHS and taxes.

Some funny moments during the debate:

- Costa's "Mike Pence fly moment":


- And Costa showing off the 2022 draft budget in a weird way, at the end of the debate:


Also, the debate was watched by 3,334,000 viewers on the 3 main networks plus the 3 cable news channels. It surpassed the 2015 Costa vs Passos Coelho debate viewing figure, becoming the most watched debate in Portuguese history.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1882 on: January 14, 2022, 02:10:02 PM »

Russiagate: Lisbon city hall fined for 1.2 million euros for sharing personal data of Russian activists.


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Lisbon City Hall fined in 1.2 million due to the Russiagate case

The Russiagate case, that broke last July, had a new chapter today. The Commission for Data Protection fined Lisbon city hall in 1.2 million euros for sharing personal data of Russian activists to Russian authorities, plus to other countries. The Commission trashed Lisbon city hall for the handling of the situation, saying that the sharing of this data to outside authorities could violate fundamental Constitutional rights, and that the fine is only lower because of the pandemic fiscal restrictions Lisbon city has. In a statement, Lisbon mayor Carlos Moedas said that "this is a heavy legacy" the former mayor leaves to the city, that the money is needed for other social protection services and that they will analyse the fine in order to "protect the interests" of Lisbon city.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1883 on: January 14, 2022, 05:32:29 PM »

1st Pitagórica daily tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

38.9% PS (-0.7)
29.7% PSD (-0.3)
  6.9% CHEGA (+1.2)
  6.2% BE (-0.2)
  5.4% IL (+0.3)
  4.6% CDU (-0.5)
  2.1% PAN (+0.3)
  1.7% CDS (+0.2)
  1.2% Livre (+0.1)
  3.3% Others/Invalid (-0.4)

Poll conducted between 10 and 13 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1884 on: January 14, 2022, 06:32:46 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2022, 07:15:25 AM by Mike88 »

Today's debates: PAN vs CHEGA, PS vs IL and CDS vs BE

- PAN vs CHEGA: Unlike other debates where Ventura was like a "boiling pot", this time it was a strangely calm debate. PAN leader, Inês Sousa Real, started the debate by saying that PAN is ready to be a solution in the government formation either with the PS or PSD, but drawing "red lines" like regarding the eucalyptus forests issue. Ventura accused PAN of being a "cane" of the PS and that they should had run in a coalition with the PS. Sousa Real then attacked CHEGA for having no policies regarding climate change, while Ventura responded by accusing PAN of just wanting to forbid and tax stuff. PAN leader then used Ventura's pet rabbit (yes, Ventura has a pet rabbit called Acácia), to defend their policy of banning hunting and asked if Ventura wanted "Acácia" to be killed. Ventura responded that he loves animals as much Sousa Real does, but that forbiding things isn't the answer but rather regulate them. The debate ended with both using arguments against each other regarding women and animals.

- PS vs IL: After yesterday's "bad night" for Costa, the PM faced IL leader João Cotrim Figueiredo. The debate started with Figueiredo trashing Costa's economic record and that Portugal has one of Europe's worst numbers on purchasing power parity and productivity, adding that Portugal's current growth isn't enough. Costa congratulated Figueiredo for acknowledging that Portugal was growing before the pandemic and that we need to keep growing and bet on more innovation and qualifications. On his response, IL leader said that Portugal was is indeed generating a lot of qualified people, but that they are leaving the country to find better opportunities. The debate then went on to taxes, with Costa criticizing IL's tax policies and saying that the 2022 draft budget had income tax cuts, and on Social Security, Figueiredo reminded Costa that 20% of the SS fund is invested on the stock market, while Costa responded by saying he raised pensions and criticized any idea of SS on the stock market. Figueiredo trashed the idea of a 4 day working week saying the country cannot afford it, while Costa said that in this matter he's very "liberal" and that his dream was to live in a country like the Nordic countries. In the end, Cotrim Figueiredo literally showed a roll of promises unfulfilled by Costa.

- CDS vs BE: The debate started with Martins justifying the costs of BE's nationalization plan and that it would cost 20 billion euros, and Rodrigues dos Santos, CDS leader, trashed the plan as "radical" and that it would lead to an "overdose" of taxes that would "kill" families and the economy. Martins said that some transport companies would have lower prices if they weren't privatized and accused the rightwing of "believing in Santa Claus". Regarding TAP airlines, Rodrigues dos Santos said that company is to be privatized immediately as it has been deflecting billion of euros from businesses and families. Martins is against the privatization and says it would be like "throwing away" all the money injected in TAP. Rodrigues dos Santos then defended tax cuts for families and accused BE of being "a factory of taxes", while Martins accused the rightwing of benefiting those at the top by their policies of tax cuts.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1885 on: January 15, 2022, 05:41:32 PM »

Pitagórica daily tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

38.8% PS (-0.1)
29.3% PSD (-0.4)
  7.8% CHEGA (+0.9)
  6.8% BE (+0.6)
  4.9% IL (-0.5)
  4.6% CDU (nc)
  1.9% PAN (-0.2)
  1.5% Livre (+0.3)
  1.3% CDS (-0.4)
  3.2% Others/Invalid (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 11 and 14 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1886 on: January 15, 2022, 05:52:29 PM »

The last one-on-one debate was tonight: PSD vs PAN

Rui Rio and Inês Sousa Real faced each other in the only debate outside Lisbon city, as it broadcast from RTP studios in Porto city. Despite the openness from each side to talk after the elections, there were clear disagreements between both sides that could make a deal complicated. Sousa Real criticized Rio's positions on Parliamentary debates, which were reduced after a PS-PSD deal in 2020, and that these kind of moves are damaging for democracy. Rio defended the changes, saying that Parliamentary debates are to control the government and not to be front page news on newspapers or on TV. Regarding forests, both disagree with PAN criticizing PSD for proposing the continuation of eucalyptus plantation, while Rio said it's crucial for any land owner to have a profit in its land. On taxes, both agree on substance, but disagree on the timing. Rio said that reducing corporate and income taxes at the same time could be a disaster for the country's finances, while Sousa Real reminded Rio of several private-state deals that are hurting the country and cost a lot more.

The one-on-one debates are now over. Next week there will be 3 debates: On Monday, all party leaders, represented in Parliament, will face off in a debate on RTP1; On Tuesday, the non represented parties will debate also on RTP1; and on Thursday, party leaders will face off in a debate broadcast by the 3 main news radio stations in Portugal, Antena1, TSF and Renascença.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1887 on: January 15, 2022, 06:59:09 PM »

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

Vote share %:

38.1% PS (+2.7)
28.5% PSD (-4.7)
  9.0% CHEGA (+2.8 )
  7.4% BE (+0.1)
  4.8% CDU (-0.3)
  3.7% IL (nc)
  2.1% PAN (-0.4)
  1.8% CDS (+0.5)
  4.6% Others/Invalid (-0.7)

Poll conducted between 6 and 12 January 2022. Polled 807 voters. MoE of 3.45%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1888 on: January 16, 2022, 07:15:02 AM »

The official campaign period began this midnight. Until 28 January, party leaders will travel across the country to win votes.

Also, today opened the registration for early voting, to be held next Sunday 23 January. Voters have until 20 January to register. PM Costa has registered to vote early and advised voters to do the same.

I will also cast an early ballot next Sunday. Smiley
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Velasco
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« Reply #1889 on: January 16, 2022, 07:53:53 AM »


Both PS and PSD leaders faced off in the only debate between them in this campaign. Rio started the debate by saying the PSD was a "civilized opposition" and helped the government during the pandemic, but pointed to the many failures of Costa as PM, from the economy to the NHS. Costa attacked Rio by saying that Mr Rio only thinks of numbers and of treating people's problems with lightness. Regarding election outcomes, Rio warned that if Costa fails to get a majority, he doesn't have anyone to talk to as, he said, Costa closed the doors to the left and right, and said that the PS would have a new leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, who could persue a PS-BE coalition government. Confronted with this, Costa was a bit vague and made his argument for an absolute majority, but said he's open to governing case by case or with the support of PAN. On the economy, Rio "trashed" the PS policies and accused Costa of putting Portugal on "the tail of Europe", highlighting that Portugal is being surpassed by former USSR countries. In his part, Costa promised tax cuts for families, while Rio continued to press on the bad economic record of the PS. On taxes, Costa accused Rio of not being trusted by people, while Rio accused Costa of having no plan at all.

Both also clashed on the minimum wage, with Costa accusing Rio of not wanting to raise the minimum wage, which was rejected by Rio. Costa proposed that the State should help businesses raise wages, but Rio rejected the policy accusing the PS of impoverishing the country. During the debate, Costa talked a lot about his 2022 draft budget, that was rejected, in which Rio joked that the 2022 PS budget is like the discovery of the path to India. On the NHS the differences was clear. To solve the problem of 1 million people without a family doctor, Rio proposed the creation of the "assistant doctor", in which patients would be treated in a private hospital until they have a doctor in the NHS. Costa trashed the policy and accused the PSD of wanting the middle class to pay for healthcare in which Rio responded by saying that 4 million people have private health insurance and that this is proof the system isn't working. On the Justice system, Costa accused Rio of trying to "control" judges with his policies, which was denied by Rio. The final topic was TAP airlines, with Costa defending the bailout and that the company is crucial for Portugal, while Rio said that the company charges ridiculous prices for air travels and that he will privatize the airline as fast as possible.

I envy Portugal for having a "civilized" centre-right opposition. Said this, I am personally interested in "the problem of 1 million people without a family doctor". Is it the NHS in so bad shape that it's unable to reach all the population? Are these 1 million people covered by private insurances, or rather they are poor and excluded from the system?
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Mike88
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« Reply #1890 on: January 16, 2022, 08:19:47 AM »

I envy Portugal for having a "civilized" centre-right opposition. Said this, I am personally interested in "the problem of 1 million people without a family doctor". Is it the NHS in so bad shape that it's unable to reach all the population? Are these 1 million people covered by private insurances, or rather they are poor and excluded from the system?

The problem of people without a family doctor has plagued governments for a long time now, and we seem to end up in the same situation over and over again. The issue is that the NHS, currently, is in a bad shape, unfortunately. Low wages, bad organization and no prospects of better working conditions are pushing doctors and nurses away from the NHS, and they either go to the private sector or immigrate to EU countries or the Emirates. The pandemic didn't help, of course, as NHS staff is overwhelmed and the lack of staff isn't helping. I don't know if those 1 million people are covered with private health insurance, but a study from 2019 found out that there's a correlation between lack of family doctors and private health insurance, and that low and middle class families are the ones that buy more private health insurance mainly in the regions of Lisbon, Setúbal and the Algarve, the areas with the lowest rate of coverage of family doctors.

There are two types of insurance in Portugal, private and public: About 3 million people have private health insurance of their own, either from their employer or bought by themselves; And then there's the health insurance for public employees, ADSE, that covers 1 million people, thus having 4 million people with some kind of health insurance.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1891 on: January 16, 2022, 02:40:21 PM »

Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?
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Mike88
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« Reply #1892 on: January 16, 2022, 03:40:35 PM »
« Edited: January 16, 2022, 05:38:50 PM by Mike88 »

Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Yep, the PS seems to be growing, although I'm skeptical of the near 40% polls are giving them, as well CHEGA, meaning that all that idea that Ventura was losing steam in the debates and that would hurt him, was not very truthfull. The PSD has drooped to pre-congress levels, 29-30%, while BE and CDU, especially BE, continue to fall. Livre also seems to be forging a comeback, but I'm a bit skeptical. Also, the PS vs PSD debate seems to have had no impact in polling, so far. Today's Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

39.6% PS (+0.8 )
29.6% PSD (+0.3)
  8.1% CHEGA (+0.3)
  6.0% BE (-0.8 )
  5.1% CDU (+0.5)
  4.7% IL (-0.2)
  1.7% PAN (-0.2)
  1.5% Livre (nc)
  0.9% CDS (-0.4)
  3.0% Others/Invalid (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 12 and 15 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.

If nothing extraordinary happens in the next two weeks, this election is shaping up to be a remake of the 2021 Canadian election...
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Mike88
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« Reply #1893 on: January 16, 2022, 04:07:28 PM »
« Edited: January 16, 2022, 07:38:46 PM by Mike88 »

First day of campaigning:

PS - Socialist Party



Costa kicked off the campaign in the Azores, with a rally presenting the islands candidates for the elections.

PSD - Social Democratic Party



Rio got a really good welcoming in Barcelos and Braga cities, with lot of supporters, but the day was "haunted" by a joke Rio make regarding Costa voting early, saying that Costa will not vote for himself. Rio was forced to downplay the issue and labeled as just a joke but the PS accused Rio of trying to misled people and doesn't know how early voting works.

CDU - Unitarian Democratic Coalition



With Jerónimo de Sousa still recovering from his surgery, João Oliveira campaigned in Setúbal, while João Oliveira in Beja district.

IL - Liberal Initiative



The Liberals opened their campaign with a sporting event in Matosinhos beach, Porto district.

CH - CHEGA



Ventura started the campaign in Batalha city, Leiria, where he visited the Batalha monastery.

Will try to do daily summary of the campaign during the week and add, when available, the political broadcasts from parties. Smiley
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Mike88
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« Reply #1894 on: January 16, 2022, 05:45:31 PM »

Will try to do daily summary of the campaign during the week and add, when available, the political broadcasts from parties. Smiley

Here they are, from some parties, big and small:

Social Democratic Party - PSD



Left Bloc - BE



Liberal Initiative - IL



Livre - L



Socialist Alternative Movement - MAS


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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1895 on: January 16, 2022, 07:21:42 PM »

Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Costa is going to get his majority.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1896 on: January 16, 2022, 07:37:07 PM »

Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Costa is going to get his majority.

I may be wrong, but I don't think that's going to happen. In order to that to happen, he needs a PSD colapse, for the moment it's not happening, and he needs that the smaller parties perform badly and that's not plausible. Plus, polls, may be underpolling the other/invalid share, as normally it has 7-8% of the votes and we are seeing 3-4% share in the polls. I also have a feeling that in the minor parties, Tino de Rans RIR could poll well, as he's been in a lot of talkshows and he recently did an interview that was a ratings success. Again, I may be wrong, my predictions about Portuguese politics since the Azores elections have been a fiasco. xD We'll see.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1897 on: January 16, 2022, 08:19:52 PM »

Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?

Normally there is one, and it will probably be made, but parties manifestos are still being presented, and maybe only in one/two weeks there will be a votecompass.

Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/
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crals
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« Reply #1898 on: January 17, 2022, 05:52:14 AM »

Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Costa is going to get his majority.
No way. That would require getting approximately 45% of the vote, perhaps a bit less but certainly not less than 40%.
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Very Radical Roman Catholic Battista Minola
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« Reply #1899 on: January 17, 2022, 06:02:32 AM »

Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?

Normally there is one, and it will probably be made, but parties manifestos are still being presented, and maybe only in one/two weeks there will be a votecompass.

Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/

One thing that caught my eye when opening the "votómetro" was seeing the CDU in blue. I somehow had no idea this was a thing - I find it very bizarre given that the PCP by itself, like all communist parties, uses red.
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