🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

A little bit of history:

This will be the 8th dissolution of Parliament, if an election is indeed called, since 1974.

https://twitter.com/PCMagalhaes/status/1453334588609241088

Of the 7 dissolutions, so far, only one returned an incumbent government: the 1987 PSD landslide victory of Cavaco Silva. All of the rest resulted in a change in the political colour of the government. What will happen this time? (if an election is indeed called, again. I'm all for everything, right now )

[Mike88]

Political crisis update:

President Marcelo informed PM Costa and Speaker Ferro Rodrigues that he intends to dissolve Parliament and call a snap election, during their meeting yesterday evening.

So, it's basically a forgone conclusion now. The main doubt is the date. Will Marcelo delay the election because of the PSD leadership? Or call a quick election for early January? We'll see.

[Conservatopia]

Mike I think you've said you're a PSD voter.  How would you vote in the leadership election?

[Mike88]

Mike I think you've said you're a PSD voter.  How would you vote in the leadership election?

I don't know, to be honest. I'm not a PSD member, just a voter, but I don't know who I would vote. Both have pluses and minuses: Rio should be entitled, in my view, to have another term because he indeed surpassed every expectations in the local elections, however, his weak opposition and sometimes erratic way of deciding policy is tiring and doesn't do any favours to the party. Rangel well, I like him, and he could be a more articulated PSD leader in terms of messaging, but many of his actions in the recent months are a bit disappointing and raise doubts for me. So, I don't know, but under pressure, I would say I would be leaning very, very slightly towards Rio.

[Mike88]

Political crisis: Parties update.

On the left, BE and PCP are being trashed on social media. The social media pages of BE and PCP are being flooded with criticisms of several leftwing voters because of the parties vote against the budget. Some voters say they will never vote again for them, that they are "selfish", and that they have put a red carpet for the rightwing parties.

But, in the rightwing parties, things aren't better. CDS is in a total war because of the possible postponement of their congress, schedule for late November. CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, wants to postpone the congress but his internal opposition is furious and accuses "Chicão" of an attempt coup d'état. In the PSD, things are calmer but with an air of rotten peace. Rio is furious with President Marcelo and Rangel and is expected to confront, tomorrow, President Marcelo regarding his audience with Paulo Rangel. Rio wants the general election to be called to mid January, but fears that Marcelo will side with Rangel and will call an election for February. Indeed, Paulo Rangel has said he wants an election on the 20 or 27 of February.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo meets with business leaders and Unions who are divided regarding an election:

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1454153682514321408

CGTP against early legislative elections

President Marcelo started the Presidential audiences to define the election calendar. He received business leaders and union leaders. Business leaders, which also asked a meeting because of their ongoing feud with PM Costa regarding Labour laws, want a stable government from the elections, but didn't propose a specific election date. Union leaders, on the contrary, don't see the need for a snap elections. CGTP, the union close to the PCP, told Marcelo that they don't see the need for an election but that they will respect the President's decision. This position is similar to PCP's, which is accusing Marcelo of being an "agent of instability", and PAN is also accusing President Marcelo of rushing for an election without any reason.

[Mike88]

But, in the rightwing parties, things aren't better. CDS is in a total war because of the possible postponement of their congress, schedule for late November. CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, wants to postpone the congress but his internal opposition is furious and accuses "Chicão" of an attempt coup d'état. In the PSD, things are calmer but with an air of rotten peace. Rio is furious with President Marcelo and Rangel and is expected to confront, tomorrow, President Marcelo regarding his audience with Paulo Rangel. Rio wants the general election to be called to mid January, but fears that Marcelo will side with Rangel and will call an election for February. Indeed, Paulo Rangel has said he wants an election on the 20 or 27 of February.

Night on tension in CDS, with a tense party meeting to discuss a possible postponement of the leadership elections. In the PSD, Rio also defends postponing the PSD leadership election and puts pressure on President Marcelo:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1454153686490439684

CDS. Nuno Melo wins one take: Tonight's National Council at risk of not taking place

CDS is living a very tense night. Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, CDS leader, wants to postpone the leadership election in the party and that is being voted and discussed this evening. But, the mood is tense and of outrage in his opposition. Nuno Melo, Rodrigues dos Santos challenger, is accusing "Chicão" of having perverted actions while the party leadership accuses Melo, and his supporters, of terrorism and of having no shame. At the same time, the party's tribunal has sided with Nuno Melo and ruled that any decision made in this Friday evening party meeting will be nullified. This could end in Courts, if it goes on.

In the PSD, Rio is putting pressure on President Marcelo because of the election date.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1454182753637965826

Rio pressures Marcelo to prove he's not with Rangel and defends the postponement of the leadership election

In an interview to SIC TV, Rio said that the President needs to stay true to his word that the elections have to be called quickly and in mid January. Any other later data, Rio said, is proof that Marcelo is siding with Paulo Rangel and, Rio added, will confirm his suspicions. Rio also said that he's considering postponing the elections, but he asked PSD members to think carefully about what is happening and that the party cannot enter in a "1908 war sketch", alluding to a popular comedy in the 60's where a war opened at 9am and closed at 4pm, concluding that how can the party win or even ask for a majority.

[crals]

Adolfo Mesquita Nunes has left CDS, saying the party he joined no longer exists. Another nail in the party's coffin.

[crals]

Crisis looming also in the Azores: IL is ready to reject the PSD regional budget because of SATA airlines.

https://twitter.com/Jornalacores9/status/1452962588472586253

IL votes against Azores Budget if Government maintains "plan and indebtedness"

If in the mainland there's a political crisis looming, in the Azores another may be forming. The current PSD/CDS/PPM minority government, with the outside support of IL, CHEGA and a CHEGA dissident, has always been shaky and now it seems it could break. The reason seems to be SATA airlines, the Azorean regional airline, and the inclusion of 133 million euros in the regional budget for the capital increase of SATA. IL is demanding a new budget where that would reduce the level of indebtedness to SATA. José Manuel Bolieiro, Azores President, reacted by saying that the regional government and political parties have to assume their responsibilities and that the government is working to present a budget to the regional Parliament.

Snap regional elections could also be inevitable in the Azores during 2022. In the local elections, the PSD gained a lot of ground in the islands, while the PS lost significantly. Could this be a prelude of a snap regional election? I would like to hear Crals opinion.

In case of a snap election I think the government (PSD, CDS, and PPM) has a chance of winning a majority. The population is willing to give them a chance to show what they can do and not enough time has yet passed to clear up the PS fatigue either.

[Mike88]

Adolfo Mesquita Nunes has left CDS, saying the party he joined no longer exists. Another nail in the party's coffin.

Just read about that. Depending on the PSD leadership result, he might end up in the PSD or in the Liberals, (IL). However, this is just my view, I think that all the "tensions" in CDS and also PSD are a bit ridiculous. Of course with a snap election in sight it's perfectly normal that the parties decide to postpone leadership elections in order to focus on the campaign. The accusations from the oppositions within PSD and CDS are just tiring, IMO.

In case of a snap election I think the government (PSD, CDS, and PPM) has a chance of winning a majority. The population is willing to give them a chance to show what they can do and not enough time has yet passed to clear up the PS fatigue either.

I also had that view, and I believe that I posted a year ago or so, that this term could likely end in a snap election if the PSD performed well in the local elections. Plus, the divisions on CHEGA could benefit the AD-Azores and, like you said, give them a majority. We'll see.

[Mike88]

A bit more info in the CDS situation:

Last night, the Party National Council meetings approved the postponement of the leadership congress to a date after the snap general elections. The result was 144 in favour, 101 against and 4 abstentions.

In the aftermath, Adolfo Mesquita Nunes announced he was leaving the party, and Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos challenger, MEP Nuno Melo, has asked President Marcelo to speak against the situation in CDS.

[VPH]

If the Azores go a snap election, I mainly want to see PPM do better.

[Mike88]

If the Azores go a snap election, I mainly want to see PPM do better.

PPM will run in a coalition with PSD and CDS, if there is a snap regional election. The 3 parties agreed to run the next regional election in a coalition, the AD-Azores Democratic Alliance, when they signed the government deal a year ago.

[Mike88]

A bit more info in the CDS situation:

Last night, the Party National Council meetings approved the postponement of the leadership congress to a date after the snap general elections. The result was 144 in favour, 101 against and 4 abstentions.

In the aftermath, Adolfo Mesquita Nunes announced he was leaving the party, and Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos challenger, MEP Nuno Melo, has asked President Marcelo to speak against the situation in CDS.

More exits from CDS in the last few hours:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1454420390944641031

Crisis in the CDS: multiple exits and displeasure in the party

It seems that it's not only Adolfo Mesquita Nunes who is leaving the party. Other former CDS MPs and members are announcing on social media their exit from the party. As of now, 3 other former CDS MPs, adding Mesquita Nunes, have left the party and others may follow.

CDS is literally falling apart, and I don't think the postponement of the congress is the main reason. This was expected for quite a while now. A PSD-CDS merger could happen sooner than anyone had expected.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Oh well. Guess it is time to start writing obituaries for the CDS-PP. Forty-seven years is a good run, after all.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Will any CDS voters not vote for the merged CDS-PSD?

[Oryxslayer]

Will any CDS voters not vote for the merged CDS-PSD?

Just commenting that the majority of parliamentary mergers, like cooperate ones, rarely are a net benefit for the two groups. There are always voters who came to the absorbed party because they disliked other groups, including the party benefiting from the merger. There are also absorbing party voters put off by some of the policies or individuals within the absorbed party.

Now sometimes it works out, and sometimes mergers have to occur to save a party from electoral thresholds, but Israel and the Netherlands offer a number of examples of failed mergers.

[Mike88]

Oh well. Guess it is time to start writing obituaries for the CDS-PP. Forty-seven years is a good run, after all.

The party is really in bad shape. However, looking back, the departure of Paulo Portas from the CDS leadership, in 2016, was probably the beginning of the end of the party. Under Portas, the party became deeply personalized around him, and like him or hate him, I have my doubts about him, he was an extraordinary leader as he was able to conciliate the hopes and positions of Rightwing Populists, Liberals, Social Democrats, Conservatives and Christian Democrats, all in one party. He could be pro EU and anti EU, pro welfare and anti welfare, pro business and more protectionist. For around 18 years, he was able to do this as party leader and his exit left a deep void in the party. The party felt difficulty in competing with the PSD as there were no differences between both, and voters preferred the original, PSD, rather than the copy, CDS. Then, the surge of IL and CHEGA left CDS even more weak as not only was the party competing with PSD but also with IL and CHEGA. Complicated times in the party.

Will any CDS voters not vote for the merged CDS-PSD?

The now cancelled leadership dispute between "Chicão" and Melo was a bit about a possible alliance with the PSD. Many in the party criticize the fact that CDS is becoming just a section of the PSD because of the many coalition it has been forging with them. They want to continue a relationship with the PSD, but also want to retain their "independence" and not be so close to the Social Democrats. But, I don't know, things are so complicated in the party right now, that they could have no choice than to merge. We'll see.

Just commenting that the majority of parliamentary mergers, like cooperate ones, rarely are a net benefit for the two groups. There are always voters who came to the absorbed party because they disliked other groups, including the party benefiting from the merger. There are also absorbing party voters put off by some of the policies or individuals within the absorbed party.

Now sometimes it works out, and sometimes mergers have to occur to save a party from electoral thresholds, but Israel and the Netherlands offer a number of examples of failed mergers.

PSD+CDS coalitions have worked quite well in the past, the only big failure being the 2004 EP elections. Like I wrote above, CDS has been losing voters, that Portas was able to appeal, to other parties like PSD, IL and CHEGA. What's now left in CDS are voters more aligned with the PSD and they seem fine with being close to the PSD as this would ensure safe seats for them in a coalition deal, unlike the danger of going alone and risk being wiped out.

A bit off topic, but the Left Bloc is also a merger of several far-left parties, UDP, PSR, PoliticsXXI, that alone were going nowhere but that together are now quite strong.

[Mike88]

President Marcelo finished the audiences with the parties represented in Parliament regarding the dissolution of Parliament and the calling of an election. The most proposed date for the elections is 16 January:

IL - 30 January or after;
CHEGA - 16 January;
PEV - Doesn't agree with an election, but prefers 16 January;
PAN - Also doesn't agree with an election, also prefers 16 January;
CDS - 9 or 16 January;
PCP - Again, doesn't agree with an election, but prefers 16 January;
BE - Doesn't agree with an election, prefers 16 January or after;
PSD - 9 or 16 January;
PS - 16 January;

However, the President is not obliged to follow the opinion of parties, and, according to this weekend's media, the President is actually considering 30 January or 6 February as the dates for the snap general election. The President still has to meet with the Council of State, next Wednesday 3 November, and only after that can announce a definitive date.

[Mike88]

It seems that it's not only Adolfo Mesquita Nunes who is leaving the party. Other former CDS MPs and members are announcing on social media their exit from the party. As of now, 3 other former CDS MPs, adding Mesquita Nunes, have left the party and others may follow.

More high profile CDS members are leaving the party:

- António Pires de Lima, former Economy minister (2013-15), announced his departure from the party saying the party is "at the end of the line";

- Michael Seufert, former CDS youth leader, also announced he's leaving the party, and said that "CDS is dead";

- João Almeida, CDS MP and challenger of Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos in 2020, announced he's resigning from his seat in Parliament;

[Mike88]

Political crisis update: President Marcelo to announce a decision next Thursday, 4 November.

The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, announced, today, that he will speak to nation next Thursday, 4 November, regarding the current political crisis and the calling of snap elections.

At the same time, the PSD also announced that they will hold an urgent National Council meeting next Saturday, 6 November, to discuss the political crisis. The President's decision on the election date will dominate the meeting, of course.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership: Rui Rio sends a letter to party members asking them to "reflect" about postponing the party elections in order to face the PS. Rangel forces accuse Rio of being "adrift".

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1455189006476529665

PSD: Rio sends a letter to militants asking for the postponement of the direct. Rangel supporter speaks of "disorientation"

The mood in the PSD continues, also, tense. Just days before President Marcelo announces the election date, Rui Rio has now sent a letter to party members in order for them to "reflect" about postponing the leadership elections. In the letter, Rio says he was right about warning the party about a possible crisis, which the party rejected, and now the PSD is in a complicated situation. He continues by saying the party cannot go into an internal battle as the same time the PS is already in campaign mode and that the party needs to be united and focused in defeating the PS. The Paulo Rangel campaign has already accused Rio of being "adrift" and of being "glued" to his post as President.

The party will hold an emergency party meeting next Saturday, which could be tense as the election date will already be known by then.

[Josecardoso17]

Mike,I dont know if anyone as already asked you,but who do you think will win the PSD leadership contest?
As a PSD supporter i like Rui Rio more ,but is oposition as been awful,but i hear a lot of PSD people say they don´t like Rangel .
History tell us that in the PSD leadeship contests a lot of suprises happen but in my point of view this time its a Lean Paulo Rangel.

[Mike88]

Mike,I dont know if anyone as already asked you,but who do you think will win the PSD leadership contest?
As a PSD supporter i like Rui Rio more ,but is oposition as been awful,but i hear a lot of PSD people say they don´t like Rangel .
History tell us that in the PSD leadeship contests a lot of suprises happen but in my point of view this time its a Lean Paulo Rangel.

I don't know who's going to win, to be honest. Rangel seems to have the edge on paper, because of his massive support from local party branches, but does this translates to actual votes? I don't know, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that the PSD base is pissed with Rangel running now, even if they have strong doubts about Rio's tenure as party leader, and, of course, we also have to wait for the election date announcement as it will have an impact on the leadership election being held or not. Overall, if there's one thing the last month taught us is that what is certain to happen, will most likely not happen. We'll see.

Conservatopia asked me, a few days ago, who I was supporting and I said I was leaning towards Rio, but, frankly, now I'm all in for Rio. Rangel, IMO, has been very disappointing and his recent actions are not very flattering.

One thing I find interesting is how demobilized the party membership is right now: only 25,351 members are registered to vote, members who have paid their party's fees, which is quite low. Members still have 15 days left to pay their fees and the final number will of course be much bigger, but I don't know if it will reach the 40,000 of January 2020. Curious.

[Mike88]

Council of State meeting held this afternoon. Majority of members voted for the dissolution of Parliament:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1456004621487558658

Council of State. Only Louçã and Domingos Abrantes were against the dissolution of the AR, Cavaco defended elections at the end of February

The last step until calling snap election was held this afternoon, where President Marcelo presided over the Council of State. In the meeting, the political crisis and the calling of a snap general election was on the table, and a majority of the members voted in favour of the dissolution, but some didn't:

- Francisco Louçã (BE) voted against the calling of a snap election;
- Domingos Abrantes (PCP) also voted against a general election;

Adding also, former President and PM Cavaco Silva (PSD) advised President Marcelo to call an election for late February, the same date as PSD candidate Paulo Rangel proposes. Recently, Cavaco Silva wrote an opinion piece trashing Rio's leadership in the PSD.

President Marcelo will announce the election date in a live broadcast speech tomorrow at 8pm.