🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Polls for Funchal city - PS/BE incumbent, 106,000 inhabitants:

Intercampus poll for Jornal da Madeira:

Vote share %:

38.8% PSD/CDS (+0.5)
29.8% PS/BE/PAN/MPT/PDR (-1.6)
  3.0% PTP (+2.1)
  2.3% CHEGA (-0.1)
  2.1% CDU (nc)
  1.6% JPP (+0.4)
  1.5% IL (-0.3)
  0.3% PPM (new)
  0.2% Livre (new)
  2.7% Others/Invalid (-0.9)
17.8% Undecided (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 3 and 20 September 2021. Polled 1,200 voters in Funchal city. MoE of 2.80%.

Eurosondagem poll for DN Madeira/TSF Madeira:

Vote share %:

42.5% PS/BE/PAN/MPT/PDR (-0.3)
40.9% PSD/CDS (+2.1)
  3.2% JPP (-0.4)
  3.0% CHEGA (-1.2)
  2.6% IL (+0.4)
  2.2% CDU (nc)
  1.2% PPM (+0.7)
  0.4% Livre (new)
  0.3% PTP (-1.3)
  3.7% Others/Invalid (-0.5)

Poll conducted between 18 and 20 September 2021. Polled 1,073 voters in Funchal city. MoE of 2.98%.

[Mike88]

Complaints to the Electoral Commission soar this year: so far, 730 complaints, double the number of 2017.

Complaints against candidacies to the Electoral Commission (CNE) soared this year. So far, 730 complaints have been issued, and this number is almost double of the number of complaints in 2017, which just 473 were issued. The majority of complaints are against incumbent mayors running for reelection for using municipal institutions and apparatus to make campaign for their party.

CNE is also expected, during this Thursday, to release a ruling regarding the controversial use of the Recovery Plan as a PS campaign pitch by the Prime Minister. CNE said their received half a dozen complaints against Costa, from ordinary citizens, and will issue a ruling about the use of the Recovery Plan in the campaign.

[Mike88]

Multidados poll for Gondomar city - PS incumbent, 164,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

55.6% PS (+10.1)
21.2% PSD/CDS (+10.2)
12.4% CDU (-3.0)
  4.7% BE (+1.1)
  2.5% CHEGA (new)
  1.7% IL (new)
  1.1% PAN (new)
  0.7% Others/Invalid (-23.7)

Poll conducted between 7 and 17 September 2021. Polled 1,000 votes in Gondomar city. MoE of 3.09%.

[Mike88]

CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, aka Chicão, in Barcelos city...

https://twitter.com/AFisgas/status/1441056487925637138

He really likes drums. xD

[Mike88]

Pitagórica/TVI polls for Lisbon and Porto cities:

Lisbon city, Vote share %:

40.6% PS/Livre (+0.8 )
33.1% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance (+0.5)
  7.6% CDU (-0.9)
  4.7% BE (-2.1)
  3.2% PAN (-0.6)
  3.2% IL (+0.2)
  2.1% CHEGA (-0.7)
  5.5% Others/Invalid (+2.8 )

Poll conducted between 15 and 21 September 2021. Polled 600 voters in Lisbon city. MoE of 4.08%.

Porto city, Vote share %:

52.7% Rui Moreira (-0.1)
15.3% PS (-0.4)
11.5% PSD (-2.5)
  6.1% CDU (+0.3)
  4.1% BE (+0.6)
  2.9% PAN (+0.7)
  2.7% CHEGA (+0.9)
  0.7% Livre (new)
  4.0% Others/Invalid (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 15 and 20 September 2021. Polled 600 voters in Lisbon city. MoE of 4.08%.

[Mike88]

Controversy as the secretary of internationalization, Eurico Brilhante Dias, said that Portugal "gained with Covid":

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1441045973229211658

"We gain with covid-19", says secretary of state

The secretary of internationalization in Costa's cabinet, Eurico Brilhante Dias, is in a middle of a controversy regarding a remark he made that has become a major "gaffe". Mr Dias told to reporters, in a Paris economic fair, that: "I'm going to say something that might not be politically correct. We gain with covid-19.", adding also that "people died and many people were very ill, but Portugal showed to be an organized country that successfully faced a very disruptive reality". These remarks are being received with surprise and amazement, with all opposition parties trashing the secretary. PM Costa devalued the remark, but even he gave a "reprimand" to his secretary by saying that "the pandemic control in Portugal is not a tourist poster".

The Foreign minister was forced to sent a press release correcting the words of the secretary and saying that Mr Dias is aware of the negative impacts of the pandemic and is sorry for the deaths due to the pandemic.

[Mike88]

CNE is also expected, during this Thursday, to release a ruling regarding the controversial use of the Recovery Plan as a PS campaign pitch by the Prime Minister. CNE said their received half a dozen complaints against Costa, from ordinary citizens, and will issue a ruling about the use of the Recovery Plan in the campaign.

CNE closes the complaints against Costa, but a group of mayors is now suing CNE because of this:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1441307884566892544

Election Commission archives complaint against António Costa and European bazooka propaganda

The Electoral Commission (CNE) decided to close the complaints against the PM for using the EU Recovery Plan (PRR) as a PS campaign platform. CNE ruled that although the facts in the complaints are true, they are not punishable. According to the Commission, more complaints against the PM arrived at their desk, but any decision will only be made after the elections. The CNE, last week, warned Costa that the use of the PRR could violate the "neutrality and impartiality duties" of an office holder.  And because of this, some mayors, headed by Isaltino Morais (Oeiras city mayor) are filling a lawsuit against CNE for violating the law. Mr Isaltino accuses the CNE of punishing him, while they didn't do anything to the Prime Minister, as Isaltino was forced to remove city hall publicity as the CNE rulled it violated the same "neutrality and impartiality duties".

[Mike88]

Last campaign events of the main candidates in Lisbon city:

Fernando Medina (PS) with PM Costa in the traditional walkabout in Lisbon downtown:
https://twitter.com/fmedinalisboa/status/1441449870204669954

Carlos Moedas (PSD) at a campaign rally last night:
https://twitter.com/Moedas/status/1441163965413855232

Beatriz Gomes Dias (BE) at a rally last night:
https://twitter.com/BGomesDias/status/1441359490146652170

João Ferreira (CDU) and Bruno Hugo Soares (IL) to hold events later in the day.

[Mike88]

Final campaign events of the rest of the candidates:

João Ferreira (CDU) in a rally in Lisbon city:
https://twitter.com/joao_ferreira33/status/1441513891364704262

Bruno Hugo Soares (IL) in his final rally with the IL national leader:
https://twitter.com/LiberalLisboa/status/1441507319284645890

[Mike88]

Main party leaders final campaign events:

- PM António Costa was today in rallies in Odivelas, Porto and finished in Viseu. In Porto city, Costa promissed a new referendum on regionalization to decide the matter once and for all, and in Viseu city, where the PS is really making a strong push in order to defeat the PSD, Costa said it's time for change in the city as the "future isn't built with the past", a reference to the PSD candidate, Fernando Ruas;

António Costa at a rally in Porto city.

- Rui Rio, PSD leader, spent his final hours of the campaign in the Azores islands. Mr Rio ended the campaign in the Azores because the PSD was able to return to power last year. Rio trashed, once again, Costa promisses with the Recovery Plan listing all the promisses Costa made in each town or city he passed, adding that the Socialists don't present solutions and don't won't to change anything suggesting that going to present reforms to the PS is like "the turkey voting for Christmas". He also said that the PS is in the pocket of special interests and doesn't support small businesses;

Rui Rio at a rally in Ponta Delgada, Azores.

- Catarina Martins, BE leader, ended her campaign in Porto city. She was part of a protest of Petrogal workers against PM Costa words about the shutdown of Matosinhos oil refinery in the morning, and during the afternoon she was part of a rally and walkabout with BE's candidate for Porto mayor. To supporters she said that the vote for BE is the only one that will avoid "absolute majorities";

- PCP leader, Jerónimo de Sousa, campaigned in Almada and Lisbon today. The Communist-Green alliance is doing everything they can in order to "reconquer" Almada city, and was also part of the final rally for their Lisbon candidate, João Ferreira, in which he said he wants more councillors in Lisbon city hall;

Jerónimo de Sousa at the final rally in Lisbon.

- Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, CDS leader, ended his campaign in Oliveira do Hospital, Coimbra, his hometown. He's running for the municipal assemble there, and he asked voters to "punish" the PS in these elections in order for the rightwing can go together to a victory in 2023, hinting an election coalition with the PSD in 2023;

- PAN leader, Inês Sousa Real, spent the last hours of the campaign in Braga city, and said that victory on election day would be the election of councillors across the country, and that they are ready to fight for animals rights, fight against climate change in town halls across the country;

- IL closed their campaign in Lisbon city, with their leader, João Cotrim Figueiredo, urging people to vote Liberal against the "absolute power of the PS". He added that people are tired of the decline of Portugal. There is currently some tension between PSD and IL, as some PSD members accuse IL of dividing the rightwing vote and hurting the PSD, mainly in Lisbon city;

João Cotrim Figueiredo at the IL rally in Lisbon.

- CHEGA leader, André Ventura, ended his campaign with a special guest: Vox leader Santiago Abascal. Despite relations between both parties being tense, they seem to have "buried the hatchet". Ventura and Abascal took part in Nuno Graciano's final rally in Lisbon city;

https://twitter.com/PartidoCHEGA/status/1441517111558422529

[Mike88]

Midnight, 25 September and the campaign is over. Today is reflection day. All campaign news, events and publication of polls are forbidden during the next 24 hours.

[Mike88]

Election day has arrived.

Polls will open at 8am and close at 8pm. Polls in the Azores islands will close one hour later, at 9pm Continental Portugal time, because of the time difference. At that hour, 9pm, TV networks will release exit polls and the first official results will be published.

There are 9,323,688 registered voters for this election that can vote in 13,821 precincts across the country. Voters will be given 3 ballots: a green ballot to elect Municipal Councils (Mayors), a yellow ballot to elect members of the Municipal Assembly and a white ballot to elect members of the Parish Assembly. There are 308 races for Municipal Councils and Assemblies, plus 3,070 of the 3,092 parishes will vote to elect Parish Assemblies. The remaining 22 parishes don't elect an assembly because they have 150 or fewer registered voters, and therefore elect their members in a town hall meeting.

The 3 main networks, RTP, SIC and TVI will, at 9pm, release exit polls for the main races: RTP will have exit polls for Lisbon, Porto, Coimbra, Almada and Figueira da Foz; SIC will have for Lisbon, Porto, Coimbra and Almada; and TVI just Lisbon and Porto. CMTV is expected to also release exit polls.

Results will be posted here: https://www.autarquicas2021.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

The site will also have turnout updates during the day.

[Mike88]

Polls opened 3 hours ago. Party leaders and the main candidates for the big cities are now voting and talking to the press.

Reports about turnout are few, so far. The first update will be released at 1pm, 2 hours from now.

[Mike88]

Election day update:

2 parish elections have been postponed because there are errors in the ballots. In one parish in Águeda (Aveiro) polling workers found that there's a list that isn't running, and in another parish in Idanha-a-Nova (Castelo Branco), polling workers realised that one candidacy is missing from the ballot.

Elections in these two parishes are now postponed and will happen in 2 weeks, on 10 October.

[Mike88]

Voter turnout at 12pm: (compared with past local elections at the same time)

2021: 20.94% (-1.11%)
2017: 22.05%
2013: 19.44%
2009: 21.23%
2005: 21.35%

[Mike88]

1 hour until the 4pm turnout update.

Reports on TV and newspapers say that turnout is normal, no surge of voters, no big lines and a waiting time of around 5/10 minutes in order to vote.

I myself didn't vote yet. I'm following the German elections also, so I will vote a bit later.

[Mike88]

Voter turnout at 4pm: (compared with past local elections at the same time)

2021: 42.34% (-2.05%)
2017: 44.39%
2013: 43.43%
2009: 45.30%
2005: 48.00%
2001: 42.50%

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

When will the polls close?

Turnout appears to be relatively low even if within normal bounds. Any indications as to whom this might favour?

[Mike88]

When will the polls close?

Turnout appears to be relatively low even if within normal bounds. Any indications as to whom this might favour?

Polls close in about 2 and half hours, at 8pm. Exit polls and results will be released one hour later, as polls in the Azores only close at that time.

Turnout is low, not that much, but, yeah, low. The voter registration rolls had an almost 100,000 voter drop compared with 2017, so even if the share % of turnout is basically the same as in 2017, the actual number of ballots cast would be lower.

There's no indications who favours with low turnout. It could benefit either side. In 2019, the low turnout benefited no one as the final result was very similar with the pre election polls. In urban areas, the turnout seems very low, while in more rural areas it seems to be much higher.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

When will the polls close?

Turnout appears to be relatively low even if within normal bounds. Any indications as to whom this might favour?

Polls close in about 2 and half hours, at 8pm. Exit polls and results will be released one hour later, as polls in the Azores only close at that time.

Turnout is low, not that much, but, yeah, low. The voter registration rolls had an almost 100,000 voter drop compared with 2017, so even if the share % of turnout is basically the same as in 2017, the actual number of ballots cast would be lower.

There's no indications who favours with low turnout. It could benefit either side. In 2019, the low turnout benefited no one as the final result was very similar with the pre election polls. In urban areas, the turnout seems very low, while in more rural areas it seems to be much higher.

Thank you! I'll be waiting.

The bolded is... intriguing. Why is that? Fear of longer lines or COVID in urban, denser areas?

[Mike88]

When will the polls close?

Turnout appears to be relatively low even if within normal bounds. Any indications as to whom this might favour?

Polls close in about 2 and half hours, at 8pm. Exit polls and results will be released one hour later, as polls in the Azores only close at that time.

Turnout is low, not that much, but, yeah, low. The voter registration rolls had an almost 100,000 voter drop compared with 2017, so even if the share % of turnout is basically the same as in 2017, the actual number of ballots cast would be lower.

There's no indications who favours with low turnout. It could benefit either side. In 2019, the low turnout benefited no one as the final result was very similar with the pre election polls. In urban areas, the turnout seems very low, while in more rural areas it seems to be much higher.

Thank you! I'll be waiting.

The bolded is... intriguing. Why is that? Fear of longer lines or COVID in urban, denser areas?

No, on the contrary, it's quite normal. In many urban areas, people don't have a strong link with local government and pay more attention to national government issues: healthcare, economy, transports, etc. In rural areas, where the national government is a distant institution, local government is crucial for everything rural communities have, therefore a higher turnout rate. In general elections, the trend is exactly the opposite: high turnout in urban areas, low turnout in rural areas.

[Mike88]

Just came back from voting. No lines, just one person ahead of me, in 5 minutes everything was done.

[Mike88]

TV coverage links:

RTP1: https://www.rtp.pt/play/direto/rtp1
SIC: https://sic.pt/direto
TVI: https://tviplayer.iol.pt/direto/TVI
TVI24: https://tviplayer.iol.pt/direto/TVI24

I believe none are geoblocked.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Let's see what the results are. I am very interested in the results in Silves, Portimão and Faro. Yes, I have my roots in the Algarve

[Mike88]

Let's see what the results are. I am very interested in the results in Silves, Portimão and Faro. Yes, I have my roots in the Algarve

Of those 3, I think that Faro may be the only one which could be at play. Silves, IMO, will be a CDU hold and Portimão a PS hold.