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Pericles
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« Reply #200 on: June 04, 2020, 05:27:18 PM »

Portugal seems to have done relatively well against coronavirus, especially compared to Spain. So the government reacted earlier than the Spanish one? And has there been a big polling bump? That poll you posted seems like a big swing from the last election, but overall it doesn't look like it has changed much.
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Mike88
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« Reply #201 on: June 04, 2020, 05:59:44 PM »
« Edited: June 04, 2020, 06:07:47 PM by Mike88 »

Portugal seems to have done relatively well against coronavirus, especially compared to Spain. So the government reacted earlier than the Spanish one? And has there been a big polling bump? That poll you posted seems like a big swing from the last election, but overall it doesn't look like it has changed much.

No question about that. Although there's concern, currently, of what's happening in Lisbon, contrary to the rest of the country, the situation never seemed out of control or anything like Spain. The government acted early, but even before the government took several confinement measures, people were already preparing themselves with many parents refusing to let their kids go to school and many businesses putting into practice teleworking. The fact that Portugal was one of the last countries in Europe to have the virus helped, plus the broad political support for the government to enact measures like closing borders or calling the state of emergency also helped.

Costa is enjoying a considerable bump in the polls, as he was polling quite badly before March. Compared with the 2019 elections, and if you average the polls, the PS has a 4.6% bump, while the PSD drops around 2.8%. But, on the left, the PS is eating up a lot of support from BE, which is making CHEGA rise to 3rd place, at least in one poll. But the trend is consistent in the transfer of votes from BE to PS. PSD isn't dropping a lot, and in some polls is even recovering some ground.

The main differences between now and the last election isn't in the 2 major parties, but rather in the smaller parties with the BE fall, like I explained above, the eruption of CHEGA, the management of decline of CDU and the colapse of CDS.
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Mike88
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« Reply #202 on: June 06, 2020, 06:22:24 AM »

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper and other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

38.0% PS (+0.3)
29.3% PSD (-0.1)
  8.0% BE (-0.3)
  5.3% CDU (-0.2)
  4.1% CHEGA (+0.1)
  3.0% PAN (+0.5)
  2.7% CDS (-0.3) 
  1.1% IL (-0.1)
  8.5% Others/Invalid (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 1 and 4 June 2020. Polled 1,021 voters. MoE of 3.07%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #203 on: June 06, 2020, 12:47:26 PM »
« Edited: June 06, 2020, 01:17:11 PM by Mike88 »

More data from the Eurosondagem poll:

Q1: Do you think Mário Centeno should stay on as minister or go the Bank of Portugal?

55.5% Stay on as minister
25.2% Go to the Bank of Portugal
19.3% Undecided

Q2: How do you rate the support António Costa gave for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa' reelection?

69.0% Good
21.0% Wrong
10.0% Undecided/Don't care

Poll conducted between 1 and 4 June 2020. Polled 1,021 voters. MoE of 3.07%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #204 on: June 07, 2020, 05:04:05 PM »

PCP held the first rally since the State of Emergency was lifted:


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PCP rally at the top of Edward VII park, Lisbon

With the participation of Jerónimo de Sousa, Secretary General of the PCP
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Mike88
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« Reply #205 on: June 08, 2020, 09:34:53 AM »
« Edited: June 08, 2020, 09:53:12 AM by Mike88 »

The political fallout of Saturday's anti-racism demonstrations in Lisbon continues:

PSD leader, Rui Rio, criticized today the government for allowing "rallies and demonstrations of the leftwing" while funerals, bars and football matches have very strict rules. This criticism comes after last weekend' anti-racism demonstrations and PCP rally in Lisbon:


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What is the Government' criteria to allow gatherings? Funerals, football, masses, discos, sports in general, no! Leftwing rallies and demonstrations, yes! Hopefully the virus understands what no one else can understand.

Many pundits and commentators are indeed criticizing the government for their inconsistent rules in terms of public gatherings, which creates uncomfortable situations, like last Saturday's demonstration which put health official really concerned. The approval of the PCP summer festival in September, while other summer festivals were canceled, continues, also, to create a big amount controversy. Nonetheless, Rio is being criticized for painting last Saturday' demonstration as "leftwing" as many argue that the issue is nonpartisan.

Police associations and unions are also presenting complaints to the DA office to find and punish protesters that in Saturday's demonstrations held up sings against the police and that, according to the unions, encourage hatred towards the police:


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"Good cop is dead cop": PSP union files complaint due to posters
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Mike88
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« Reply #206 on: June 08, 2020, 12:17:33 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2020, 05:54:07 AM by Mike88 »

Regional Government support in handling the Covid-19 crisis:

Azores (PS majority)

Q: How do rate the Regional Government' measures to fight COVID19 and defend the Azores?

70.9% Very Good
15.2% Average
  9.1% Bad
  4.8% Undecided

Poll conducted by Eurosondagem between 17 and 19 May 2020. Polled 525 voters in Azores islands. MoE of 4.27%

Madeira (PSD/CDS coalition)

Q: How do rate the Regional Government' handling of the Covid-19 crisis in Madeira?

89.1% Good/Very Good
  7.7% Average
  1.1% Bad/Very Bad
  2.1% Undecided

Poll conducted by Aximage between 1 and 2 June 2020. Polled 327 voters in Madeira islands.
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Mike88
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« Reply #207 on: June 09, 2020, 06:34:53 AM »

BREAKING NEWS: Mário Centeno resigns as Finance Minister. João Leão, current secretary of budget affairs, will be the new minister.


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Mário Centeno leaves the Government. João Leão takes over Ministry of Finance

The Finance minister and Eurogroup chairman Mário Centeno has resigned from the government and will be replaced by João Leão, current secretary of budget affairs, on June 15. The news was confirmed by the government and will be announced publicly by António Costa with Mário Centeno on the platform also.
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Mike88
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« Reply #208 on: June 09, 2020, 11:49:16 AM »
« Edited: June 09, 2020, 11:59:20 AM by Mike88 »

More updates on Mário Centeno' resignation:

The number 2 and 3 of Centeno's team in the Finance ministry, the secretaries of finance and of the treasury, have also resigned.

Also, a curious vote happened today in Parliament. In today' afternoon, a vote to change the rules of nominating the governor of the Bank of Portugal creating a five-year break for government officials to transition to the Bank of Portugal, was approved by the PSD, BE, CDS, PAN, CHEGA and IL, while PS voted against. The new rules will not block Centeno's chances of being governor as the law will still go to a committee and then the final draft approved. A process that takes months, and the job of governor is up grabs during July this year.

Nonetheless, the timing of all of this is quite curious.
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« Reply #209 on: June 09, 2020, 04:01:36 PM »

BREAKING NEWS: Mário Centeno resigns as Finance Minister. João Leão, current secretary of budget affairs, will be the new minister.


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Mário Centeno leaves the Government. João Leão takes over Ministry of Finance

The Finance minister and Eurogroup chairman Mário Centeno has resigned from the government and will be replaced by João Leão, current secretary of budget affairs, on June 15. The news was confirmed by the government and will be announced publicly by António Costa with Mário Centeno on the platform also.

What are the reasons for that decision?
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Mike88
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« Reply #210 on: June 09, 2020, 04:59:18 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2020, 06:32:02 PM by Mike88 »


Well, that's the answer every wants to know. Reporters asked him and Costa but no answer was given. But, pundits and the media are giving a serious of reasons: the first is that he wanted to be remembered as the minister of the "1st budget surplus in democracy" and not for the economic fallout of the next months and/or years; another is that his relation with Costa was on the ropes and he was fed up in being in the government; the other is that he wants to become Governor of the Bank of Portugal, as he has a personal grudge against the incumbent governor, Carlos Costa.

But, perhaps, the real reason is a mix of all the reasons mentioned above. And, it's still to be seen if Centeno will be chosen as Governor of the Bank of Portugal. Many parties are against it, only PS and perhaps BE would support it, but, the choice of the Governor is exclusive to the PM and the government and Parliament, for the moment as the law will probably change, doesn't have a say.
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Mike88
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« Reply #211 on: June 09, 2020, 05:43:23 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2020, 07:15:42 PM by Mike88 »

At the same time Centeno resigns from the government, the government has presented the Supplementary Budget for 2020, which is basically an emergency budget as the 2020 original budget was thrown into the garbage due to the Covid-19 pandemic.


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The main measures of the Supplementary Budget proposal
Mário Centeno, in the center; João Leão, on the left of Centeno

The new budget was still presented by Mário Centeno and changes all the economic and fiscal forecasts for 2020 and 2021. The main data is the following:

GDP 2020: -6.9%
Debt 2020: 134.4%
Deficit 2020: -6.3%
Unemployment 2020: 9.6%
1,2 billion euros to bailout TAP airlines
500 million euros in NHS investments

This budget could to be approved by many parties from left to right: PSD is open to vote in favour, as BE and PCP, CDS and PAN are still undecided.
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Pericles
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« Reply #212 on: June 09, 2020, 06:43:35 PM »

What are the implications of the Finance Minister resigning? Are there any policy differences between him and the new person?
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Mike88
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« Reply #213 on: June 09, 2020, 07:09:11 PM »

What are the implications of the Finance Minister resigning? Are there any policy differences between him and the new person?

Like I said above, the reasons for his resignation aren't fully clear yet, but many possibilities are out there. Now, this Centeno departure has very important implications. Like him or not, Centeno did one thing that until now no one did: re-brand the PS as a competent party in terms of fiscal issues. Until then, the PS was always seen as very incompetent in fiscal and budget issues, while the PSD was the responsible one. Centeno change that and helped Costa and the PS in cleaning their really bad reputation. And because of this, Centeno was very popular from left to right, in some polls he was just behind Rui Rio in terms of popularity in the PSD electorate, for example. Therefore, the PS and Costa lose a very important piece in the "fiscal responsibility" card, however, the new minister, João Leão, seems to be very similar to Centeno and he was part of his team, as he led the team that drafted the budgets. The new minister was also the supervisor of the controversial, but also a bit unpopular, budget captivations.

Now, there are some pundits that are criticizing the timing of all of this, as in "is it wise for a popular minister, like Centeno, to abandon the ship in these troubling times?" How the electorate sees all of this is also unclear, will they be upset by Centeno' departure and punish the PS? Or will they see a continuity in João Leão and trust Costa' handling of this change? We'll see.
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Mike88
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« Reply #214 on: June 12, 2020, 11:28:43 AM »

Parties react to the vandalism of Father António Vieira statue in Lisbon:


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PCP condemns vandalism, CDS blames extreme left and Chega wants deterrence team

Political parties are reacting to the vandalism of Father António Vieira statue in Lisbon, as it has become a major political story. During yesterday morning, the word "Decolonization" was sprayed in the statue and many parts of the statue were also sprayed. Lisbon city hall rapidly cleaned the statue and criticized who did this. And parties are weighing in: PCP is hoping that this act doesn't spark racist clashes, while CDS is blaming the extreme left for this vandalism and that they are no different from the vandals of ISIS that destroyed the city of Palmira. CHEGA on the other hand is proposing the creation of a special branch of the police to crack down these kind of actions, adding that the people who did this to the statue are motivated by an international movement that has no attachment to the Portuguese reality.

PSD leader, Rui Rio, although didn't spoke about the issue, posted on twitter an article of an Expresso newspaper columnist entitled "Leave the statues alone".
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« Reply #215 on: June 12, 2020, 01:48:12 PM »

During yesterday morning, the word "Decolonization" was sprayed in the statue and many parts of the statue were also sprayed.

This is so stupid, Father António Vieira was a defender of Jewish people, slaves and the opressed, who frequently spoke out against colonisation and the evils of the Inquisition. Just because he was a priest in the medieval times doesn't mean he's a symbol of the powerful and opression.
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Mike88
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« Reply #216 on: June 12, 2020, 05:29:53 PM »

During yesterday morning, the word "Decolonization" was sprayed in the statue and many parts of the statue were also sprayed.

This is so stupid, Father António Vieira was a defender of Jewish people, slaves and the opressed, who frequently spoke out against colonisation and the evils of the Inquisition. Just because he was a priest in the medieval times doesn't mean he's a symbol of the powerful and opression.

Indeed. If you know just a minimum of the history of Portugal, you know that all of this is ridiculous. Expresso newspaper says that the police believes that a far left group may be behind this.
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Mike88
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« Reply #217 on: June 13, 2020, 10:45:22 AM »

PS plans to obstruct the new law that creates "a disgust period" for former cabinet members to be nominated as members of the Bank of Portugal:


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Future of Mário Centeno. PS wants to delay bill that prevents government from going to BdP

Parties approved last week, curiously on the same day Mário Centeno resigned, a bill that forbides any cabinet member to go to the Bank of Portugal for a period of time after leaving cabinet. The number approved was 5 years, but PSD leader, Rui Rio, said that the number was too high and PAN, the party who drafted the bill, is willing to lower the number and reach a deal with the PSD. At first, the bill wouldn't be ready by next July when the nomination process of a new governor starts, but the parties that passed the new law want to speed up the process. But, the PS wants to block the process. According to Expresso newspaper, PM António Costa expressly ordered to block the bill in order for Mário Centeno to be governor by mid July. PAN is already criticizing the PS for obstructing Parliament.

The PS plans to obstruct the bill by delaying the works by asking committees to hear experts, and the advise of the ECB.
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Mike88
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« Reply #218 on: June 15, 2020, 09:20:10 AM »

New finance minister sworn in, but ceremony was overshadowed by Mário Centeno's future:


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"Did Mario Centeno commit any crimes?" Costa does not understand the "persecution" of ex-minister

The new finance minister, João Leão, was sworn in today in the Presidential Palace. But the ceremony was completely overshadowed by the role Mário Centeno will have in the future. The PM criticized parties and Parliament for drafting a bill to specifically attack someone, adding that some parties want to punish Mário Centeno. He ironically said that the Covid-19 confinement maybe was bad for some people. He finalized by saying that Centeno has all the conditions to be a candidate for governor.

João Leão, new finance minister, was also asked about Centeno's future role, and Mr Leão said that Centeno would be an "excellent choice" for governor of the Bank of Portugal.
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Mike88
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« Reply #219 on: June 16, 2020, 05:40:03 AM »

Crisis in PAN: PAN' sole MEP, Francisco Guerreiro, leaves the party because of disagreements but will remain as a MEP.


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PAN loses representation in the European Parliament. Francisco Guerreiro breaks with the party

PAN has lost their representation in the European Parliament. PAN's sole MEP, Francisco Guerreiro, has left the party due to "strong disagreements" with the party leadership, but will remain as an independent MEP until 2024. Mr Guerreiro adds that PAN's leadership has been limiting his actions as an MEP, and that the party has been breaking with their founding values, like being labeled as "leftwing" or by defending the military service for young people when, according to him, PAN is a pacifistic party. He will remain a MEP as an independent and caucus in the Greens–European Free Alliance.
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Mike88
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« Reply #220 on: June 17, 2020, 04:55:17 PM »
« Edited: June 18, 2020, 06:29:50 AM by Mike88 »

2020 supplementary budget passes only with the votes of the PS:


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Supplementary Budget: Government avoids austerity, but hasn't stop doubts about TAP and Novo Banco

The 2020 supplementary budget was approved, in general, this afternoon. Only the PS voted in favour, as the majority of parties opted to abstain and only CDS, CHEGA and IL voted against. However, parties are expected to present several amendments to the final document.

The PSD opted to abstain although was very critical of the document, particularly because of the economic forecasts of the government, the TAP bailout and the Novo Banco' support from the government. The PS and the government said that no austerity or spending cuts will be done, arguing against the former PSD/CDS government strategy. The vote by parties was the following:

108 In favour (PS)
    7 Against (CDS, CHEGA, IL)
115 Abstention (PSD, BE, CDU, PAN, JKM)
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Mike88
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« Reply #221 on: June 18, 2020, 06:59:13 AM »

PAN seems to be losing more members:


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They lost their only MEP and several municipal deputies. What is happening to PAN?

Quote
After the unexpected announcement of the departure of the only MEP that the party managed to elect, the municipal deputy of Cascais also announced that she was leaving the party. But there are more outlets in the PAN.

The municipal deputy from Cascais, that also left the party, is the wife of Francisco Guerreiro, recently former MEP from PAN now Independent. But there seems to be several other members leaving the party. The reasons seem to several for this crisis in the party: the non defense of the unconditional basic income; the way the party communicates as those who are leaving the party say it has become more radical and violent; and lack of debate and big centralization of decision in André Silva's leadership.
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Mike88
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« Reply #222 on: June 19, 2020, 07:10:10 AM »
« Edited: June 19, 2020, 09:05:20 PM by Mike88 »

A lot of polling released today:

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:

Vote share %:

40.0% PS (-0.3)
24.1% PSD (+0.8 )
  9.8% BE (+0.8 )
  6.8% CHEGA (nc)
  6.2% CDU (+0.3)
  4.1% CDS (+0.5)  
  3.1% PAN (-0.5)
  1.9% IL (-1.3)
  0.8% Livre (+0.1)
  1.5% Others (+0.8 )
  1.7% Invalid/Blank (-1.2)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.7 António Costa (-0.1)
3.2 Rui Rio (-0.2)
3.2 Catarina Martins (+0.1)
2.9 André Silva (+0.2)
2.8 Jerónimo de Sousa (nc)
2.7 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (nc)
2.6 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.1)
2.2 André Ventura (-0.1)
1.9 Joacine Katar Moreira (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 9 and 13 June 2020. Polled 610 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Aximage poll for JE newspaper:

Vote share %: (compared with the February poll)

39.9% PS (+4.8 )
25.8% PSD (-0.3)
  8.0% BE (+0.3)
  5.3% CHEGA (+1.0)
  4.9% CDU (-0.5)
  4.3% PAN (+0.2)
  1.4% IL (-1.1)
  1.2% CDS (-0.9)  
  0.2% Livre (-0.5)
  4.6% Others/Invalid (-2.1)
  4.5% Undecided (+0.8 )

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

15.9 António Costa (+5.5)
12.9 Rui Rio (+3.6)
11.1 Catarina Martins (+1.7)
  8.6 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.7)
  8.5 Jerónimo de Sousa (-1.2)
  8.5 André Silva (+1.0)
  7.6 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.2)
  6.5 André Ventura (-1.0)
  5.2 Joacine Katar Moreira (+1.7)

Preferred PM:

57.3% António Costa (+13.5)
18.2% Rui Rio (-3.6)

Poll conducted between 5 and 8 June 2020. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%

Aximage poll on Madeira region for JE newspaper:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2019 elections)

42.2% PSD (+2.8 )
27.5% PS (-8.3)
  2.3% CDS (-3.5)
  2.1% BE (+0.4)
  2.1% CDU (+0.3)
  9.6% Others/Invalid (-5.7)
14.2% Undecided

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 June 2020. Polled 415 voters in the Madeira islands. MoE of 4.80%.

The Centeno resignation had no impact in the polling so far. And some curious notes: according with the Aximage poll, the PSD wins the young vote (18-34 years) with 33.2% to the PS' 27.8%, plus threre's a considerable gender gap with the PS barely winning men, 34.6% vs the PSD' 33.2%, but crushing among women, 44% vs the PSD' 20.1%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #223 on: June 19, 2020, 09:15:52 AM »

Another interesting point from the polling released today:


Quote
Aximage: The CDS, if the elections were held today, according to Aximage, would have its worst result ever and would not be able to elect a deputy to the Assembly of the Republic.
However, the Intercampus survey shows an opposite trend, upward.
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Mike88
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« Reply #224 on: June 19, 2020, 08:25:19 PM »

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper and other regional newspapers on the 2021 Presidential election:

Vote share % for possible candidates: (compared with the previous poll)

69.6% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-1.1)
  7.2% André Ventura (+1.7)
  6.9% Ana Gomes (-1.5)
  6.9% Marisa Matias (-0.3)
  4.8% Arménio Carlos (-0.4)
  2.5% Miguel Albuquerque (new)
  2.1% Adolfo Mesquita Nunes (new)

Poll conducted between 15 and 18 June 2020. Polled 1,072 voters. MoE of 2.90%.
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