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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  Portugal's politics and elections 2.0
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Mike88
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« Reply #75 on: January 31, 2020, 08:29:06 pm »

Euthanasia approval likely: Parliament will vote on February 20th as PS, BE, CDU and PAN have legislation to pass it.


Quote
Euthanasia: Parliament schedules debate for February 20

After the failed vote of 2018, Euthanasia could become legal in Portugal. Parliament has schedule a vote on the legalization of Euthanasia on 20 February, as PS, BE, CDU and PAN have legislation to pass it. These 4 parties/coalition have a total 143 seats, more than enough to pass a bill. On the right, PSD leader Rui Rio will give freedom of vote to PSD MPs. Rio himself is in favour of the legalization of Euthanasia. The Liberal Initiative could also present a bill to legalize and monitor euthanasia practices in Portugal. The only parties totally against are CDS and CHEGA, which only have 6 seats in Parliament. However, it's expected that a big portion of the PSD caucus will vote against any legalization of euthanasia.
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Farmlands
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« Reply #76 on: January 31, 2020, 08:39:12 pm »

Seems as if there might be quite a couple of social issues likely to pass through with this Parliament, compared to its predecessor, given its bigger left majority. I look forward to this bill passing, as are many PSD voters I know. I'm also personally hoping for marijuana legalisation to be the next issue discussed on the table.
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Mike88
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« Reply #77 on: February 01, 2020, 08:15:22 am »

Seems as if there might be quite a couple of social issues likely to pass through with this Parliament, compared to its predecessor, given its bigger left majority. I look forward to this bill passing, as are many PSD voters I know. I'm also personally hoping for marijuana legalisation to be the next issue discussed on the table.

Yes, previous polling showed that legalization of Euthanasia was approved by a considerable part of the electorate, and even in the PSD, although their electorate is divided, the legalization of euthanasia has a lot of support, almost half. I myself as a PSD voter, approve the legalization of euthanasia. About marijuana, it could also pass in the future as the PSD, I believe in 2018, voted in congress a motion to legalize marijuana. We'll see.

A side note: The most curious vote will be the VAT on electricity in the next few days. PSD, BE, CDU, and maybe CDS, want to lower it from 23% to 6% and, according to the media, the PSD is analyzing the possibility of increasing VAT on hotels in order to please BE and for their cuts in government management be accepted by BE and CDU. I'm skeptical that anything will pass, but what would be Costa's reaction, if this goes ahead? He cannot force a political crisis as parliament can only be dissolved until May. Or could this accelerate Mario Centeno's exit from the government earlier than expected?
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Mike88
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« Reply #78 on: February 03, 2020, 03:53:56 pm »

2020 Budget final vote: VAT cut on electricity likely to fail as PSD budget cuts aren't supported by BE/CDU:

Parliament is voting, bill by bill, the final draft of the 2020 budget. So far, some bills will be added to the budget against the wishes of the PS, but the main one, VAT cut on electricity, might fail. According to last weekend's press, the PSD was willing to increase some taxes, on the environment f.e., to please BE and CDU, but either they retracted or used the media just for spin, as the party says that they will not propose any tax hike. The PSD proposed cuts in government services were struck down by PS, BE and CDU, but the PSD says that they will fight for VAT cut until the last minute.

A number of bill passed during the afternoon:

- Extra increase of pension, of 10 euros per month, for those who earn at least 658 euros of pension;
- A CHEGA bill was passed, with the votes of PSD, BE, PAN and CDS to force the government to publish, every 3 months, a list of all institutions, public and private, funded by the government;
- A PSD bill giving university teachers the "full restoration" of their frozen career progressions, approved by PSD, BE, CDU and PAN;
- Extra financing of Lusa, the main news agency in Portugal, by 1,5 million euros, after the PS flip flopped their vote;

Other bills were struck down:

- Joacine Katar Moreira's bill of giving back all former colonies patrimony to their respective countries was struck down with the votes of PS, PSD, CDS, CH and IL;
- A PSD bill failed by just one vote as André Ventura, CHEGA MP, arrived late. The PSD bill was to stop funding cuts to Foundation of Science and Technology;
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Mike88
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« Reply #79 on: February 03, 2020, 04:09:23 pm »

Tancos air base scandal trial begins: Judge says he's perplexed by the different versions of the Tancos case.


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Tancos case. Azeredo Lopes heard of a manufactured call and did not report.

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Former Defense Minister Azeredo Lopes assumes he was aware that the weapons of Tancos' storerooms were found following a manufactured call, SIC said.

Argued in the process, Azeredo Lopes was heard this Monday by the investigating judge, Carlos Alexandre.

The former defense minister said he did not inform the authorities about the staging because he had no duty to do so, SIC said.
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Mike88
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« Reply #80 on: February 04, 2020, 02:49:35 pm »

Some resignations today:

Abel Matos Santos, deputy leader of CDS, who was under fire for praising Salazar, PIDE and calling Aristides Sousa Mendes as a "Jew moneylender", resigned today after just 2 weeks in the job.

Joacine Katar Moreira leaves Livre for good. She announced she handed over her party membership card and becomes a full Independent MP.

Also, there seems to be a small revolt in the PS caucus regarding VAT on bullfights. The plan to increase VAT from 6% to 23% in bullfights events is creating a bad mood in the PS caucus, as 38 MPs are totally against the policy but are forced to vote in favour as the party is forcing vote discipline, meaning that any MP that violates the order could be punished. However, they say that this matter will not end here.
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Mike88
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« Reply #81 on: February 05, 2020, 03:07:42 pm »

2020 budget vote: Huge tensions regarding VAT on electricity and the vote against a circular line in Lisbon's subway:

It's still ongoing, but the day was full of tensions. VAT on electricity and the cancellation of a new circular line of Lisbon's subway created a huge moments of tensions between the PS and the opposition, but especially with the PSD. First the subway vote. The government was planning to change the map of the Lisbon subway to create a circular line and this line would force the construction of 3 new underground station in the center of Lisbon. The leftwing parties proposed a bill to cancell the line and it was approved by all the opposition parties, which infuriated the PS. The parliament is then advising the government to expand the subway to the northen suburbs of Lisbon. The PS is furious and accuses the parties, especially the PSD, of irresponsibility and of jeopardizing almost 100 million euros in EU funds and say they will send the bill to the Constitutional Court.


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Politics - PSD's proposal to lower VAT on light should fail. PCP will abstain

Then, VAT on electricity. Until today, everyone though the bill was dead, but the PSD changed its bill and gained the support of BE, CDS, CHEGA and IL. The PS is, once again, furious with the PSD accusing them of being irresponsible and of making the governance of the country chaotic. But, a breaking development arised, as PCP will abstain in the PSD vote meaning that VAT reduction could still fail. We'll see.


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Tancos: António Costa may have violated justice secrecy. Carlos Alexandre informs the DA office.

Costa is also in hot waters today, as he delivered his responses to the Tancos scandal judge... but posted them on twitter. The judge is very upset with the Prime Minister and says that Costa could have violated justice secrecy and will send this to the DA office for investigation.
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Mike88
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« Reply #82 on: February 07, 2020, 06:27:15 pm »

2020 budget: Tense final vote as PSD tried to pass their VAT cut on electricity, but PCP and CDS saved the government.


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High voltage led electricity VAT decrease to suffer blackout in Budget vote.

The PSD last minute change seemed, according to the media, to put the government in panic mode. The PSD gained the support of BE, CHEGA and IL, and was supposedly from the CDS, but we'll get to that. PCP was the big doubt but in the last minute, they voted against the PSD demands of lowering the tax only in October 2020, and the PSD withdrew their bill. But, the big surprise was the CDS position as they abstained in the vote, killing the PSD tax cut and helping the government. Rio himself accused the CDS of now helping Costa and being an "ally of the PS". In fact, according to this weekend's media, Costa talked with the new CDS leader during the VAT Parliament debate and they the PS gave the CDS their approval for a CDS bill in exchange of a CDS abstention in the PSD VAT tax cut.

In the end, the 2020 budget was approved with the PS votes, while the leftwing parties, BE and CDU, abstained and PSD, CDS, CHEGA and IL voted against. This time the 3 PSD Madeira MPs voted against the budget.
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Mike88
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« Reply #83 on: February 08, 2020, 06:53:04 am »
« Edited: February 08, 2020, 06:58:07 am by Mike88 »

PSD national congress starts in Viana do Castelo city:



The PSD national congress started yesterday evening in Viana do Castelo city. Rui Rio opened the congress with a speech where he highlighted the biggest challenge the PSD faces right now: the 2021 midterm local elections. He said it's very important for the party to win a lot of cities and councillors to have then a good momentum to win the next general elections. He asked for loyalty and credibility from party members and defined the PSD as not rigthwing or leftwing, but a centrist party that represents all people. He also said he's willing to lead a rightwing front against the PS.

The congress is expected to be quite boring and without many surprises. Rio's opponents in the primaries, a few weeks ago, will speak today.
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Mike88
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« Reply #84 on: February 08, 2020, 08:00:08 am »
« Edited: February 08, 2020, 08:12:33 am by Mike88 »

New polling.

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper:

Vote share %:

37.4% PS (+0.2)
26.7% PSD (+0.2)
  9.0% BE (-0.6)
  6.5% CDU (-0.1)
  3.3% CDS (-0.2)
  3.1% PAN (-0.5)
  2.5% CHEGA (+0.3)
  1.1% IL (-0.2)
  0.5% Livre (-0.1)
  9.9% Others/Invalid (+1.0)

Poll conducted between 2 and 6 February 2020. Polled 1,020 voters. MoE of 3.08%.

Intercampus poll for CM/CMTV on Rui Rio's leadership:

Q1: Do you think Rui Rio is the best candidate to face the PS in the next general election?

41.2% Yes
40.4% No
18.4% Undecided

Q2: Do you think Rio will last as PSD leader until the next general election?

61.6% Yes
21.0% No
17.4% Undecided

Q3: What do you think is best for the PSD right now?

44.6% Rio as PSD leader
33.1% Someone else as leader
  8.9% Pedro Passos Coelho as leader

Q4: About Rio's main challenger, Luís Montenegro, what do you think about his future?

44.1% Still has a shot in leading the PSD
35.7% His political career is over
20.2% Undecided

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 January 2020. Polled 619 voters. MoE of 3.90%.
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Mike88
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« Reply #85 on: February 08, 2020, 08:31:29 am »

JUST IN: André Ventura, CHEGA leader, announces his candidacy for the Presidency of the Republic in 2021.


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MP criticizes Marcelo's silence on topics such as fighting corruption and says that the current President of the Republic is the "face" of the system.

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The leader of Chega, André Ventura, announced this Saturday that he will run for President of the Republic in the January 2021 elections.

In a video released by TVI24, Ventura states that he will not suspend his MP mandate in the Assembly of the Republic and admits losing the presidential candidacy.

The deputy justifies the entry into the race to Belém with "the silence" of the current President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, in the face of the "big problems" that Portugal faces.
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Mike88
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« Reply #86 on: February 10, 2020, 02:09:55 pm »
« Edited: February 10, 2020, 02:17:04 pm by Mike88 »

Euthanasia debate: Conservative forces are pushing for a national referendum.

Many conservative groups and the Catholic Church are pushing for a referendum to be held on the matter of euthanasia. The probably victory for the Yes side in Parliament, is making many rightwing groups to defend a referendum as the only way to stop the legalization of euthanasia. The PSD will also discuss a possible support for a referendum, even though leader Rui Rio isn't very favourable of it, but has said he will accept the party's base choice.

The media is also reporting that the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is also very concerned about a possible Yes victory in Parliament and also wants a referendum.

IMO, if a referendum does happen, a similar situation like the 1998 abortion referendum could happen: a majority of the population in favour, but low interest and low turnout will favour the most motivated voter base, the No side. We'll see.
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Farmlands
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« Reply #87 on: February 10, 2020, 07:35:10 pm »

Euthanasia debate: Conservative forces are pushing for a national referendum.

Many conservative groups and the Catholic Church are pushing for a referendum to be held on the matter of euthanasia. The probably victory for the Yes side in Parliament, is making many rightwing groups to defend a referendum as the only way to stop the legalization of euthanasia. The PSD will also discuss a possible support for a referendum, even though leader Rui Rio isn't very favourable of it, but has said he will accept the party's base choice.

The media is also reporting that the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is also very concerned about a possible Yes victory in Parliament and also wants a referendum.

IMO, if a referendum does happen, a similar situation like the 1998 abortion referendum could happen: a majority of the population in favour, but low interest and low turnout will favour the most motivated voter base, the No side. We'll see.

I think you could be underestimating how much the country has moved to the left, in terms of social issues, in the past 20 or so years. It's a similar situation to Ireland in my view, in that we also have a history richly influenced by Catholicism, but people no longer hold the conservative values that usually come with it, as seen in their referendums.
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Mike88
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« Reply #88 on: February 11, 2020, 02:21:38 pm »

Euthanasia debate: Conservative forces are pushing for a national referendum.

Many conservative groups and the Catholic Church are pushing for a referendum to be held on the matter of euthanasia. The probably victory for the Yes side in Parliament, is making many rightwing groups to defend a referendum as the only way to stop the legalization of euthanasia. The PSD will also discuss a possible support for a referendum, even though leader Rui Rio isn't very favourable of it, but has said he will accept the party's base choice.

The media is also reporting that the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is also very concerned about a possible Yes victory in Parliament and also wants a referendum.

IMO, if a referendum does happen, a similar situation like the 1998 abortion referendum could happen: a majority of the population in favour, but low interest and low turnout will favour the most motivated voter base, the No side. We'll see.

I think you could be underestimating how much the country has moved to the left, in terms of social issues, in the past 20 or so years. It's a similar situation to Ireland in my view, in that we also have a history richly influenced by Catholicism, but people no longer hold the conservative values that usually come with it, as seen in their referendums.

I agree with what you said, but my point is that a referendum will generate, very likely, quite low turnout and the decision will be made by the side that is most motivated. The majority of voters, according to polling, is in favour of euthanasia legalization, but the topic of euthanasia isn't very exciting for the vast majority of voters and will probably won't generate a lot of interest. Therefore, I believe a referendum is a waste of money and time as Parliament has all the legitimacy to vote and decide on this matter.
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Mike88
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« Reply #89 on: February 13, 2020, 02:10:22 pm »

Euthanasia poll done by Egas Moniz Institute:

Q1: Are you in favour of the legalization of Euthanasia?

50.5% Yes
25.6% No
23.9% Undecided

Q2: What should be the best way to decide the legalization?

63.7% Referendum
23.0% Don't know
13.3% Parliament approval

Q3: What's your degree of info on Euthanasia?

56.0% Moderate
22.1% Low or none
21.6% High

Poll conducted between late December 2019 and early January 2020. Polled 1,695 voters.
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Mike88
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« Reply #90 on: February 14, 2020, 02:07:00 pm »
« Edited: February 14, 2020, 08:41:58 pm by Mike88 »

GfK/Metris poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2019 election results)

33% PS (-3)

28% PSD (nc)
  9% BE (-1)
  8% CDU (+2)
  6% CHEGA (+5)
  4% CDS (nc)
  3% PAN (nc)
  2% IL (+1)
  1% Livre (nc)
  1% Others (-3)
  5% Blank/Invalid (nc)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 10)

8.1 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+0.5)
5.6 António Costa (+0.1)
4.6 Catarina Martins (-0.2)
4.4 Rui Rio (+0.7)
4.3 Jerónimo de Sousa (nc)
3.3 André Silva (-0.4)
3.2 André Ventura
2.7 João Cotrim Figueiredo
2.1 Joacine Katar Moreira

Government's job approval:

57% Approve (+7)
34% Disapprove (-3)
  9% Undecided (-4)

Poll conducted between 22 January and 5 February 2020. Polled 800 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.
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FrancoAgo
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« Reply #91 on: February 14, 2020, 07:41:37 pm »


around 2 years and half ago, you writed:

PNR is the only party that publicly hails Salazar or fells nostalgic about the Estado Novo regime.
 
Basically every time the PSD or PSD/CDS are in power, the leftwing parties, and some times the PS, portrait PSD and CDS as the "heirs" of Salazar. But no one really buys that. It's just stupid.


So was not full true
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Mike88
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« Reply #92 on: February 14, 2020, 08:30:24 pm »


around 2 years and half ago, you writed:

PNR is the only party that publicly hails Salazar or fells nostalgic about the Estado Novo regime.
 
Basically every time the PSD or PSD/CDS are in power, the leftwing parties, and some times the PS, portrait PSD and CDS as the "heirs" of Salazar. But no one really buys that. It's just stupid.


So was not full true
CDS has always had a small group of voters from the rightwing that, yes, had some good things to say about Salazar. However, that never came to the surface and damaged CDS image, as the party tried to sell, successfully for a considerable period, a moderate image. But these problems are a proof of the scale of the disaster CDS is in right now. For years, the party tried to be a "small catch all" party on the right, being appealing to moderate centrist voters, and at the same time trying to hold on to their conservative base. The 2019 elections blew everything apart. The arrival of CHEGA meant that many CDS voters now had a party that really defended what they believed in, and many ditched CDS. Now, CDS is deeply divided on their future. The new leadership, formed by many people from the rightwing part of the party, wants to confront CHEGA and win back their old electorate, even if that means using the same tools as CHEGA. But, the other faction believes that Ventura and CHEGA are populists and the CDS should never try to become a copy of CHEGA. Abel Matos Santos posts are quite old, from 2016 and 2017, just around the time I wrote that, and he was just a simple CDS member with ideas the national leadership would never accept or tolerate.

When I wrote that, I wouldn't have imagine how divided the rightwing in Portugal would be by 2020, and how damaged and at risk CDS was.
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crals
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« Reply #93 on: February 15, 2020, 06:33:03 am »


around 2 years and half ago, you writed:

PNR is the only party that publicly hails Salazar or fells nostalgic about the Estado Novo regime.
 
Basically every time the PSD or PSD/CDS are in power, the leftwing parties, and some times the PS, portrait PSD and CDS as the "heirs" of Salazar. But no one really buys that. It's just stupid.


So was not full true
It is true. AMS had to resign because of how outlandish those remarks were for CDS. I don't think even Chega would tolerate them.
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Mike88
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« Reply #94 on: February 15, 2020, 08:41:22 am »


around 2 years and half ago, you writed:

PNR is the only party that publicly hails Salazar or fells nostalgic about the Estado Novo regime.
 
Basically every time the PSD or PSD/CDS are in power, the leftwing parties, and some times the PS, portrait PSD and CDS as the "heirs" of Salazar. But no one really buys that. It's just stupid.


So was not full true
It is true. AMS had to resign because of how outlandish those remarks were for CDS. I don't think even Chega would tolerate them.
Well, CHEGA is having some problems with the far-right groups within the party. Ventura is trying to stop the proliferation of some of these groups in CHEGA, but it's a difficult task.
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Mike88
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« Reply #95 on: February 16, 2020, 07:34:37 am »

Local by-election in Mindelo parish, Vila do Conde, Porto district today:

Around 3,300 voters are called, today, to elect a new parish assembly in Mindelo parish, Vila do Conde. The former PS minority cabinet fell after disagreements between them and the opposition, which made the management of the parish impossible. For this by-election, 6 lists will be on the ballot: PS, PSD, CDS, BE, CDU and an Independent. In terms of electoral history, Mindelo is a swing parish, where the PS and the PSD are always very close. In the 2017 local elections, there was a 3-way race between PS, Independent and PSD, while in the 2019 general elections, the PSD won with a comfortable margin:

2017 local election:

26.2% PS , 3 seats
25.5% Independent, 3
24.3% PSD/CDS, 2
14.9% Independent, 1
  2.6% BE
  1.9% CDU
  4.7% Blank/Invalid

63.1% Turnout

2019 general election:

37.3% PSD
29.1% PS
10.0% BE
  4.7% CDS
  3.7% PAN
  3.2% CDU
  2.2% IL
  1.4% Livre
  1.2% RIR
  1.2% CHEGA
  0.5% Alliance
  5.5% Others/Invalid

60.1% Turnout

This race is too early to call. It could be a PS hold, an Independent gain or a PSD gain. We'll see.
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Mike88
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« Reply #96 on: February 16, 2020, 05:28:34 pm »
« Edited: February 16, 2020, 05:54:24 pm by Mike88 »

Mindelo parish by-election: Independent gain from PS.

Vote share %: (compared with the 2017 elections)

42.2% Independent (+16.7), 5 seats (+2)
23.2% PSD (-1.1), 2 (nc)
21.9% PS (-4.3), 2 (-1)
  6.7% BE (+4.1), 0 (nc)
  4.2% CDS*, 0
  1.9% CDU (nc), 0 (nc)
  3.9% Blank/Invalid (-0.7)

47.3% Turnout (-15.9)

*CDS ran in a coalition with the PSD in 2017.
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Mike88
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« Reply #97 on: February 17, 2020, 02:54:27 pm »

The "Marega case" has entered in full on the political scene, as all political leaders have reacted to the case where FCPorto player, Moussa Marega, was subject to racist slurs during a match in Guimarães.

All political leaders are reacting to the case that is making headlines in Portugal, right now. The PM, the leader of the opposition and all other party leaders have reacted to this case. The PM António Costa and PSD leader Rui Rio reacted on twitter:


Quote
Any and all acts of racism are criminal and intolerable. No human being should be subjected to this humiliation. No one can remain indifferent. I condemn any and all acts of racism, under any circumstances.

Total solidarity with #Marega, who in the field proved to be not only a great player, but also a great citizen.
#no to racism


Quote
What happened yesterday in the Guimarães-Porto game has obvious racist outlines that clash with our values; but it highlights, above all, primary behaviors, responsible for an intolerable increase in violence in sport that a civilized society cannot tolerate.

The only political leader not condemning the case is CHEGA leader André Ventura. After he downplayed the case and called many people "hypocrites", he's criticizing António Costa' reaction to this case:
Quote
It was this hypocrisy that I was referring to.
The Prime Minister immediately sympathizes with the football player, but we have never seen him do this in relation to police officers, teachers or doctors who are beaten, insulted and humiliated every day.
#sindrome_Joacine

The foreign affairs minister is also worried about this case, as he says it will damage Portugal's image abroad.
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Mike88
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« Reply #98 on: February 18, 2020, 07:03:14 pm »

Venezuela-Portugal crisis: President and the Government calls "unacceptable" Venezuela action to forbid TAP air flights to that country.


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Portugal and Venezuela are in the most serious diplomatic crisis ever

The decision of the Venezuela government of forbidding TAP Portugal air flights to Venezuela is being received with anger by the government and the President of the Republic. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says that the actions of Venezuela are "unacceptable" and they need to be repudiated, adding that this is the same view as the government. The foreign minister has also repudiate the decision and said that TAP didn't do anything wrong and called, like the President, unacceptable the decision.

The Venezuelan government accuses TAP of helping to transport explosives to the country and demands Portugal to accept Nicolás Maduro as the rightfull President of Venezuela. Around 500,000 Venezuelan citizens have Portuguese ancestry.
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Mike88
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« Reply #99 on: February 19, 2020, 06:24:01 pm »

Euthanasia debate: Divisions on the PSD as the legalization is set to be approved tomorrow:


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Assisted death: Euthanasia has almost certain approval and causes controversy in the PSD

The euthanasia vote is to be held tomorrow and the approval is almost a certainty. The PS will vote overwhelmingly in favour, although some MPs, 11 at least, will abstain or vote against. In the PSD, there is divisions. The party is divided on the topic itself and on the question of the referendum. Although the majority of the caucus will vote against, PSD leader, Rui Rio will vote in favour. Plus, some PSD MPs are forging a petition to ask for a referendum, something Rui doesn't want and there are already some PSD MPs that have retracted their support for the petition.

The Catholic Church, medical associations and other movements are asking for a nationwide referendum on Euthanasia, and a petition, promoted by the church, has already 40,000 signatures, and the leaders of the petition believe that by the end of the month, they will have enough signatures, 60,000 minimum, to force a debate on a referendum in Parliament.
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