🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[VPH]

My grandpa thinks that with Rio re-elected as PSD leader and the CDS still in freefall, Chega and IL will surely gain votes. Just thought it was an interesting prediction.

[Mike88]

My grandpa thinks that with Rio re-elected as PSD leader and the CDS still in freefall, Chega and IL will surely gain votes. Just thought it was an interesting prediction.

Well, I believe it's still to early to predict that. CDS is on the verge of disappearing, yes, but the PSD is polling at 26-27% right now, meaning that their October electorate is, for now, not going anywhere. Plus, CHEGA is going throw an interesting moment. Ventura is purging many party members that have connections with far-right movements and has even changed the party's description to become more "moderate". Rio himself, last week, opened the door to future coalition with CHEGA if they have a positive evolution, meaning, becoming more moderate.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1217882290442964998

Ventura investigates mass registrations in Chega. And it promises to take confidence from "extremist, subversive or racist" leaders

I don't know if Rio will last until the 2023 general election, the 2021 midterm local elections will be crucial for him, but I believe the big change could be what happens on the right of the PSD. IL isn't performing that well as all of the attention is on CHEGA and I don't think they will get big surge in the future.

[Mike88]

Maps of the 2nd round of the PSD leadership election:

Rio gained many votes in his strongholds and was able to reduce Montenegro's lead in places like Braga and Coimbra. Montenegro gained many Pinto Luz voters in Lisbon and Setúbal, but it wasn't enough to upset the big margins he lost by in Porto and Aveiro. On the map, Rio gained a lot of cities from Montenegro in the North, while Montenegro swept everything in Lisbon. On the district map, Montenegro won Lisbon and Setúbal from Pinto Luz and gained Portalegre from Rio.

[Mike88]

Livre congress: New elected party leadership board has a majority against Joacine Katar Moreira.

The new Livre leadership board was elected with 95 votes in favour out of 110, but it has a clear majority against Joacine Katar Moreira. 27 members were re-elected and they are clearly anti-Joacine, the 16 new members could still side in favour of Ms. Moreira, but it's not enough. It basically certain that Livre will lose its seat in Parliament and Joacine Katar Moreira will become an Independent... unless she creates her own party, who knows.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: PSD-Madeira congratulates Rui Rio and wants to unite the party.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1218913275171069957

PSD/Madeira congratulates Rio and says they're "available" to defend social democracy

It seems that PSD-Madeira wants truces after their bitter conflict with the national party regarding the membership registration. The PSD regional branch, who boycotted the second round, congratulated Rui Rio, wants to defend "social democracy" and unite and mobilize PSD voters for the 2021 midterm local elections. They also added that they are ready to fight the real adversaries, the PS. The PSD-Madeira finalized the statement saying all issues with the national PSD will be resolved in due process.

[Mike88]

Luanda Leaks hits Portuguese politics with Costa denying any special treatment to Isabel dos Santos:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1220047461378678785

Luanda Leaks. António Costa denies special treatment to Isabel dos Santos - RTP Notícias

The PM was forced to speak about the Luanda Leaks, an international investigation on the fortune of Isabel dos Santos, the daughter of Angola's former leader José Eduardo dos Santos, to deny any special treatment to Isabel dos Santos when she was buying shares in Portuguese banks and companies. Costa was asked by the media to react to BE's accusation that Costa' government, and himself, gave a special treatment to Isabel dos Santos in order to invest and buy shares in Portugal. Costa also said that relations between Portugal and Angola will not be hurt by this.

One thing Costa didn't answer, and he was asked about it, was the possible run for the 2021 Presidential elections of Ana Gomes, the former MEP that has been investigating Isabel dos Santos fortune for a long time, and other corruption scandals like the one involving hacker Rui Pinto and Benfica:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1220030645960876034

Ana Gomes. Does the fight against corruption make a presidential candidate? The hashtag # anagomes2021 gained new impetus with the release of Luanda Leaks documents. [Read more: http://bit.ly/38t9sn7]

Some PS members are pushing her to run and, on social media, she is gaining a lot of support. However, she herself has ruled out a possible run, but who knows at this point.

[Mike88]

Final results of the 2nd round of the PSD leadership election were published:

53.2% Rui Rio (17,157 votes)
46.8% Luís Montenegro (15,086 votes)

  1.0% Blank/Invalid (339 votes)

80.2% Turnout

[Mike88]

CDS leadership congress: Delegates meet this weekend to elect a new leader with fears the party could be on the verge of extinction.

CDS delegates will elect a new leader, this weekend, during the party's congress in Aveiro city. 5 candidates are in the race, with the 3 main contenders being João Almeida, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos and Filipe Lobo d'Ávila. However wins faces a daunting task of reviving the CDS, at a moment the party is polling at around 3% and behind CHEGA. Some pundits argue that CDS faces the real danger of becoming irrelevant and many CDS members, like former leader José Ribeiro e Castro, accuses Cristas of destroying the CDS by trying to transform CDS into a "new PSD", meaning, becoming a more moderate and catch-all party.

The new leader will be elected during Saturday evening, but the vote could last into the early hours of Sunday.

[Mike88]

CDS leadership congress starts: Assunção Cristas exits the leadership by saying "I've failed".

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1221039926025818114

Assunção Cristas, the still CDS leader, made her final speech, today, at the start of the CDS congress in Aveiro. She admitted her strategy failed and the voters perceived CDS as the party of "no, no, no" as they were alone in opposing the PS and that hurt them. She also said that her strategy was voted overwhelmingly in past congresses and that the she's not alone in the blame. After her speech, she left the congress and it's not expected that she will return during the weekend.

The new leader will be elected, possibly, tonight. There will first be a vote on candidate motions and after that result there will be another vote, this one to elect the leader. Coalition against candidates could be possible.

[Mike88]

Livre crisis: The party will meet on Monday to discuss Joacine Katar Moreira's position as MP.

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1221040934491693059

A week after the tumultuous party congress, the party leadership will meet to discuss the future of Joacine Katar Moreira as a MP. The meeting will be held Monday night and a decision will be made in that same meeting. At the same time, Joacine Katar Moreira is already planning her future outside Livre: she is developing a website where she will update her work as a MP. For now, that's her plans.

[Mike88]

CDS leadership congress: According to Expresso newspaper, the mood in the congress hall is very favourable towards Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, aka "Chicão", the right-wing leader of the CDS' youth wing. However many highprofile CDS members are giving their support to João Almeida, current MP and spokesperson of leader Assunção Cristas.

Vote to be held during the evening, early hours.

[Mike88]

CDS leadership congress: Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos will be the new leader.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1221388887634993152

"CDS will be the right arm of the Portuguese". The moment when Chicão knew he won:

Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos will be the new leader of CDS after his motion to the congress was the most voted. 1,445 delegates voted and the results were the following:

46.4% Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos
38.9% João Almeida
14.5% Filipe Lobo d' Ávila

The vote was just for motions, not the leadership, but João Almeida conceded defeat and congratulated Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos. This is a right-wing turn for CDS after many years of evolving into a moderate Christian democratic party. Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, aka "Chicão", is 31 years old and will become the youngest party leader in recent Portuguese history.

[Mike88]

First controversy in the CDS congress: New leadership team, led, and proposed, by Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, has no women.

[Mike88]

Livre crisis: Meeting to decide Joacine Katar Moreira's future postponed for Thursday, due to "procedural issues".

[Mike88]

Controversy between CHEGA and Livre: André Ventura asks for Joacine Katar Moreira to be "returned" to her country of birth after she proposed a bill that would provide for the return of heritage of museums to former colonies.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1222208186125602817

André Ventura "proposes" that Joacine "be returned to her country of origin". Livre complaints of racism:

André Ventura is under fire, today, after commenting on social media about a new bill proposed by Livre MP Joacine Katar Moreira. Ms Moreira bill proposes that former colonies heritages, currently displayed in Portuguese museums, should be returned to their country of origin. André Ventura, CHEGA leader, was quick to comment this on social media, saying that "MP Joacine should be returned to her country of origin". This comment is being criticized almost by everyone, and Livre is accusing Ventura of racism. However, Joacine Katar Moreira has yet to comment on Ventura statement.

This is the 2nd time, just this week, that Ventura and CHEGA are surrounded in controversy. During the weekend, on social media, a video of a CHEGA rally in Porto city showed at least one CHEGA supporter doing the Nazi salute during the national anthem. Ventura was forced to repudiate his supporter gesture and that he realized it on the rally and felt uncomfortable.

[crals]

My grandpa thinks that with Rio re-elected as PSD leader and the CDS still in freefall, Chega and IL will surely gain votes. Just thought it was an interesting prediction.

Chega is jumping from controversy to controversy and IL fell under the radar, with CDS moving into their space a bit. So far I don't think they'll be making a big breakthrough.

[Mike88]

My grandpa thinks that with Rio re-elected as PSD leader and the CDS still in freefall, Chega and IL will surely gain votes. Just thought it was an interesting prediction.

Chega is jumping from controversy to controversy and IL fell under the radar, with CDS moving into their space a bit. So far I don't think they'll be making a big breakthrough.

About IL, they are pretty irrelevant right now. CHEGA, I'm not that sure. They appeal to a big chunk of the conservative electorate that was always very muted and voted heavily on CDS, and some also on the PSD. Now, and because CDS is completely off the rails, they feel more comfortable in CHEGA, as the party is pro-life, anti-gay rights/marriage, and very populist against corruption and "socialism". The anti-corruption in CHEGA is very hypocritical, but everyone knows that.

Everthing points that there will be a battle on the rightwing of Portuguese politics between CHEGA and CDS. The new CDS leadership is very similar to CHEGA's rhetoric and there will be a fight for that electorate.

[Mike88]

War of words between PS and PSD because of the Social Democrats proposal to reduce to 6% VAT on electricity:

https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1222259469054365696

Centeno accuses PSD of making illegal proposal to lower VAT on electricity.

All of the parties represented in Parliament submitted, until yesterday, a record 1,300 changes to the 2020 budget. The PSD, the main opposition party, proposed a cut in VAT on electricity, from the current 23% to 6%, starting in July with a cost of 175 million euros, and with that being balanced with cuts in governmental management. The PS is criticizing this proposal saying it's illegal and would cost 700 million euros, although this figure has changed some times. The PSD responded saying that Mário Centeno should put all the card in table and prove the VAT cut is illegal and they accused Centeno and the PS of making stuff up and of acting like if he's the "owner of all this".

Nonetheless, the possibility of the VAT cut passing is real, as BE and CDU have similar proposals and both say they are willing to vote a reduction. The main doubt is will there be a common bill between PSD/BE/CDU.

[Mike88]

"Negative coalition" between PSD/BE/CDU to lower VAT on electricity looming:

The BE announced today that they will vote in favour of any bill that lowers VAT on electricity for families, accusing the PS of governing with "blackmail and intransigence". The PSD and CDU haven't announced how they will vote, but it's becoming more and more possible the likelyhood of PSD/BE/CDU coalition, which IL and CDS could be part of it to, against the PS minority government. Costa is attacking those who want to pursue this policy. In a speech to PS MPs, Costa said that some people are in a hurry to bring down the government and the VAT reduction is unfair, and bad for the environment.

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1222590753605672960

António Costa criticizes PSD proposal to reduce VAT on electricity.

Rui Rio, PSD leader, responded to the PM, on twitter, accusing him of making up illegalities:

https://twitter.com/RuiRioPSD/status/1222584628239896578

It seems to Mr PM that the alleged illegality depends on who proposes it and not on the measure itself. Yesterday, Minister Mário Centeno seemed to follow the same line of thought, only with much less discursive competence.

In other news, the CHEGA-Livre controversy continues. Ventura is being heavily criticized by the left and the right for his comments, and some parties, like PS and BE, will present votes in Parliament to condemn his remarks. Ventura himself, however, is doing some TV interviews and isn't retracting a single word of his statement:

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1222619344187904001

Videos - "If we are so racist, what is she doing here?": André Ventura after suggesting the deportation of Joacine Katar Moreira

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM:

Vote share %:

32.8% PS (-1.1)
25.8% PSD (+0.1)
11.9% BE (+1.2)
  6.2% CDU (-0.1)
  6.2% CHEGA (+0.5)
  6.0% PAN (-0.1)
  2.3% IL (-0.1)
  1.9% CDS (-2.0)
  1.7% Livre (+0.6)
  5.2% Others/Invalid (+1.0)

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 January 2020. Polled 619 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

[Mike88]

Another controversy on CDS: New deputy leader, Abel Matos Santos, praised Salazar, the former secret police PIDE and criticized Aristides Sousa Mendes on social media.

https://twitter.com/itwitting/status/1222833601030520833

Abel Matos Santos. PIDE was "one of the best police forces in the world"

The new CDS leadership is involved in another controversy. This time, some media outlets found, on the Facebook page of CDS's new deputy leader Abel Matos Santos, several posts were he praised former dictator António de Oliveira Salazar saying he was one the best Portuguese ever, hailed PIDE as "one of the world's best police forces" as they only harass communists and those who attempted against the State, and defined Aristides de Sousa Mendes as a "Jewish moneylender". He accuses the media of decontextualize his words.

[Former President tack50]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM:

Vote share %:

32.8% PS (-1.1)
25.8% PSD (+0.1)
11.9% BE (+1.2)
  6.2% CDU (-0.1)
  6.2% CHEGA (+0.5)
  6.0% PAN (-0.1)
  2.3% IL (-0.1)
  1.9% CDS (-2.0)
  1.7% Livre (+0.6)
  5.2% Others/Invalid (+1.0)

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 January 2020. Polled 619 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

Wow, big yikes for CDS. Is this the end of CDS? They would be dead as the dodo if they drop that low. May as well merge with Chega or PSD honestly.

On that note also surprised to see Chega that high. Any talks of putting a "cordon sanitaire" on them? Or would PSD reach a deal easily with them?

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM:

Vote share %:

32.8% PS (-1.1)
25.8% PSD (+0.1)
11.9% BE (+1.2)
  6.2% CDU (-0.1)
  6.2% CHEGA (+0.5)
  6.0% PAN (-0.1)
  2.3% IL (-0.1)
  1.9% CDS (-2.0)
  1.7% Livre (+0.6)
  5.2% Others/Invalid (+1.0)

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 January 2020. Polled 619 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

Wow, big yikes for CDS. Is this the end of CDS? They would be dead as the dodo if they drop that low. May as well merge with Chega or PSD honestly.

On that note also surprised to see Chega that high. Any talks of putting a "cordon sanitaire" on them? Or would PSD reach a deal easily with them?

CDS is in fact going to through a rough time, However, the poll was conducted before the CDS elected its new leader, but, to be honest, I doubt that would make any difference as the party is still divided, many CDS moderate members are already saying bad things about the new leader, and there are already 2 controversies surrounding him, just in one week. If CDS would to merge, which is very unlikely, it would be with PSD, not CHEGA. CHEGA, right now, is literally enemy nº1 of CDS, as Ventura has stolen the hard line conservative electorate from CDS.

Right now, on the center-right, the PSD has a carefull approach towards CHEGA. Rio isn't antagonizing CHEGA and avoids being involved in their controversy. The left, however, attacks constantly Ventura and CHEGA.

[Mike88]

Livre crisis: Joacine Katar Moreira loses support of Livre but will remain as a non-registered MP:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1223175982175137792

Livre Assembly removes confidence in Joacine Katar Moreira:

It was expected, but now it's confirmed. Joacine Katar Moreira will no longer represent Livre in Parliament, but will remain as a non-registered MP. Livre loses parliamentary representation, but will continue to receive public funding, as the party got more than the required 50,000 votes in October, but Joacine Katar Moreira MP funding will be cut from 117,000 euros to 57,000 euros per year.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CM/CMTV on the 2021 Presidential election:

Vote share %:

68.5% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (PSD)
  8.7% André Ventura (CHEGA)
  7.4% Marisa Matias (BE)
  3.2% Jerónimo de Sousa (CDU)
  1.6% Carlos César (PS)
10.6% Others/Undecided

Poll conducted between 19 and 24 January 2020. Polled 619 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

Note: Carlos César, Jerónimo de Sousa, Marisa Matias and André Ventura are hypothetical candidates for the moment.