🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

In general, centre alliances are not a good idea and a recipe for polarization to more extreme parties, but I'm curious whether or not that will play out here as I don't know Portuguese politics well

PS and PSD agreements are very common. In fact, before 2015, the exception was the PS finding support on the left. But now, it seems we have gone back to the pre-2015 situation. PS and PSD have some common ground on, for example, labour laws, regulations, and others and some parts of both parties constantly press that Portugal needs strong reforms that can only happen with strong PS and PSD agreements. Formal coalitions are not on the table as both parties compete directly and don't accept that.

The electorate seem to not punish this kind of agreements, on the contrary. The "common ground" affect has in the past benefited either the PS or the PSD. It's not something that the general electorate hates, the same cannot, probably, be said for both party bases that normally don't any talk with the other side, but this doesn't seem to affect the parties in polling. But, of course, this could change, especially with the current existence of IL and CHEGA on the right, but, for now, there's no proof of any change.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for SOL newspaper, Porto Canal and other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

38.4% PS (+0.4)
29.3% PSD (nc)
  8.4% BE (+0.4)
  6.0% CDU (+0.7)
  4.4% CHEGA (+0.3)
  2.8% PAN (-0.2)
  2.2% CDS (-0.5)  
  1.1% IL (nc)
  7.4% Others/Invalid (-1.1)

Poll conducted between 29 June and 2 July 2020. Polled 1,025 voters. MoE of 3.06%.

[Mike88]

2021 local elections: Main parties, PS and PSD, start to consider some candidates:

The 2021 local elections are 1 year and 3 months away and, in a normal time, many candidate would already be announced, but the Covid-19 pandemic changed all plans and official candidates are only expected to be announced during or after January 2021. Nonetheless, parties, especially the 2 main parties, are starting to consider candidates and strategies.

In Lisbon, PS mayor Fernando Medina is expected to run for another term and the PSD is considering running MP Ricardo Baptista Leite. He has become a very known person as he is a doctor and is normally on TV. He even appeared sometimes on UK's ITV Good Morning Britain. If it will be a PSD or PSD/CDS candidacy is still to be decided.

PSD leader, Rui Rio, has also steeled the rule book for the 2021 elections for the party and the national leadership will choose the candidates in the main cities, Lisbon and Porto especially, the party should run alone and only in specific races with other parties, mayor who can run for another term can present their candidate if they want, and the candidates with judicial problems could be removed by the national leadership.

The PS is also staring to consider some candidates. In Cascais, a PSD stronghold, the PS is considering running former Health minister Adalberto Campos Fernandes and in Viseu city, the PS has already chosen their candidate and João Azevedo will lead the PS list in this also PSD stronghold. In Castelo Branco, a PS stronghold, the PS is having problems as the current mayor is in danger of being thrown out of office due to corruption charges and some in the party say that the situation is very bad and that the national leadership should lead the process of choosing a candidate.

https://twitter.com/SolOnline/status/1279482886484373504

PS launches Ex-Minister of Health in Cascais

In Madeira, PSD and CDS are discussing possible coalitions in the main cities, particularly in Funchal. This would be the first time the PSD-Madeira runs in a coalition, but, for now, it's only a discussion. In Oeiras, mayor Isaltino Morais is becoming closer with the PSD and some in the party are considering supporting or Isaltino Morais leading the PSD lists. Mr Isaltino was expelled from the party in 2005, due to corruption charges and spent some years in jail until he was released from jail and won, again, the 2017 elections in Oeiras in a landslide.

https://twitter.com/etcetaljorna/status/1273538550613540865

PSD wants reconciliation with Isaltino Morais

So, a lot to happen in the next few months in the local level.

[Mike88]

Azores 2020 regional election: Parliament approves early voting for the regional elections.

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1280602936658341889

Parliament: AR approves early vote and mobility for the Azores regional elections

Parliament has approved early voting for the Azores regional elections, scheduled for early/mid October this year. The proposal was presented the Azores regional parliament and passed with the votes of PS, PSD and BE. CDU, CDS and IL abstained in the vote.

The date of the elections is still to be decided, but a date is expected by early August.

[Mike88]

Minister of Infrastructures, Pedro Nuno Santos, says he will not vote for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1281154877792620545

Pedro Nuno Santos says he will vote for PCP or BE presidential candidates if PS doesn't present one - RTP Notícias

During an interview to RTP News, Pedro Nuno Santos, Minister of Infrastructures, said he wanted the PS to have its own presidential candidate to the 2021 elections, but refused to vote for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, saying he will never support the candidate of the right. He added that he has nothing against Marcelo, but that he's a Socialist and if the PS doesn't present a candidate from its area, he will vote in either the PCP or BE candidate.

Earlier this May, António Costa basically endorsed Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa's reelection which signaled a future support of the PS for the President's reelection bid. Nonetheless, Carlos César, PS' chairman, also made an interview to Público newspaper and talked directly to Pedro Nuno Santos.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1281144153993293825

Carlos César warns Costa's successors: they will have to wait seated

In the interview, Mr César guaranteed that António Costa will go on and on and that he sees Costa winning a 3rd term as PM. asked about the 2 possible successors of Costa, Pedro Nuno Santos and Fernando Medina, he said that they will have to wait a long time and advise them to wait seated.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for the 2021 Presidential elections:

Vote share:

65% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
13% Ana Gomes
  7% André Ventura
  4% Marisa Matias
  2% Adolfo Mesquita Nunes
  1% Jerónimo de Sousa
  8% Others/Undecided

Some crosstabs data by age and party:

50-64 years old:

50% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
26% Ana Gomes
11% André Ventura

18-24 years old:

73% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
  8% Marisa Matias

PSD

82% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa

PS

67% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
23% Ana Gomes

BE

56% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
13% Ana Gomes

CDU

52% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
13% Ana Gomes

Poll conducted between 7 and 8 July 2020.

[Mike88]

Parliament strucks down PSD proposals to change some Parliamentary procedures:

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1281592377883406336

Parliament "strucks down" PSD proposals on how AR works

The PSD saw their proposals to change some rules on how Parliament works rejected by PS, BE, CDU, CDS and IL. Only CHEGA supported the PSD policies. The Social Democrats proposed two main changes: the end of the transparency committee and the creation of a new one without MPs to analyze and rule on MPs conflict of interests and others, and the inclusion of, also, non MPs in Parliamentary committees, mainly independents.

Parties trashed the PSD proposals accusing them of defending populist ideas, which angered PSD leader Rui Rio. Speaking to reporters, Rio accused particularly the PS MP Jorge Lacão, who attacked the PSD proposals, of being the reason reform is needed as Mr Lacão "is in Parliament since the 80's and is basically part of the furniture". He added that the corridors of Parliament have to be aired.

[Mike88]

Azores 2020 elections: PS approves lists and renominates Vasco Cordeiro as candidate for the Presidency of the Government.

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1282053316768419848

Azores / Elections: PS approves lists and appoints Vasco Cordeiro for president of the Regional Government

The PS-Azores has approved the lists for the October 2020 regional elections last Saturday. They also renominated Vasco Cordeiro as PS candidate for the Presidency. Mr Cordeiro will run for a third, and last, term as President of the Azores Government and will lead the PS list in the main island, São Miguel. The PS will have lists in all 9 islands, plus the compensation constituency. 70% of the candidates on the lists are re-nominations and 50% are independents. The deputy president of the region, Sérgio Ávila, will lead the list in the second most populated island, Terceira, and the speaker of the regional parliament, Ana Luís, will lead the list in Faial island. The PS caucus leader, Francisco César, son of former Azores President and current PS president Carlos César, will be place number 5 in the list of São Miguel islands.

The election date is still to be announced.

[Mike88]

PS and PSD agree to reduce time of intervention of smaller parties in Parliament, infuriating smaller parties:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1283843781540884485

Smaller parties fear being hit by the Central Bloc.

PS and PSD seem to have agreed on a series of changes in Parliamentary procedures to eliminate the biweekly PM Q&A debates and turn it to a monthly one, reduce the time of intervention of smaller parties and the rights of MPs to start their own legislative initiatives. These changes are infuriating the smaller parties in Parliament, BE, PCP, CDS, PAN, PEV, CH and IL, accusing the two main parties of creating a huge setback in Parliamentary procedures in Portugal and that this will reduce Parliament's scrutiny of the government and the PM.

[Mike88]

Financial situation of the main parties: PS and CDS in near bankruptcy, PSD surpasses PCP to become the richest party in the country.

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1284063429490176000

PS and CDS-PP in technical bankruptcy. PSD and PCP are the parties with most solid accounts

The Public Accounts and Financing Entity, a bureau of the Constitutional Court, revealed that in 2019, the PS and CDS were in "technical bankruptcy" as both parties had bigger debts than their overall assets, with the PS having a negative balance of 3,8 million euros and CDS a negative balance of 1,3 million euros. On the other hand, PSD surpassed the PCP, until now the party with more assets, and becomes the biggest party in terms of assets and with biggest positive balance. The party led by Rui Rio ended 2019 with 27,9 million euros in assets and positive balance of 19,1 million euros. The PCP presented assets worth 20,7 million euros and a positive balance of 16,7 million euros. The rest of the parties, BE, PAN, CH and IL, also presented good financial numbers and all with a positive balance.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN newspaper and TSF radio:

Government' job approval:

57% Positive
26% Negative
13% Average
  4% Undecided

Opposition' job approval:

37% Positive
33% Negative
21% Average
  9% Undecided

António Costa' job approval:

63% Positive
18% Negative
12% Average
  7% Undecided

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa' job approval:

61% Positive
22% Negative
12% Average
  5% Undecided

Trust in the PM and President:

41% Trust more the President
33% Equal trust
17% Trust more the PM
  9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 5 and 8 July 2020. Polled 624 voters. MoE of 3.90%

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN newspaper and TSF radio:

Vote share %:

40.4% PS (+0.5)
26.7% PSD (+0.9)
  8.5% BE (+0.5)
  6.0% CDU (+1.1)
  5.2% CHEGA (-0.1)
  2.6% PAN (-1.7)
  2.1% CDS (+0.9)  
  2.1% IL (+0.7)
  0.1% Livre (-0.1)
  6.3% Others/Invalid (-2.7)

Poll conducted between 5 and 8 July 2020. Polled 624 voters. MoE of 3.90%

[Mike88]

More polling.

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:

Vote share %:

39.0% PS (-1.0)
23.9% PSD (-0.2)
10.4% BE (+0.6)
  6.2% CHEGA (-0.6)
  6.2% CDU (nc)
  4.8% CDS (+0.7) 
  3.0% PAN (-0.1)
  2.8% IL (+0.9)
  0.4% Livre (-0.4)
  0.2% Others (-1.3)
  3.0% Invalid/Blank (+1.3)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.4 António Costa (-0.4)
3.2 Rui Rio (nc)
3.0 Catarina Martins (-0.2)
2.6 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.2)
2.6 André Silva (-0.3)
2.6 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.1)
2.5 João Cotrim Figueiredo (-0.1)
2.2 André Ventura (nc)
1.7 Joacine Katar Moreira (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 8 and 13 July 2020. Polled 620 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

[Mike88]

PS regional primaries held this weekend. More left wing of the party defeated as candidates closer to Costa win across the country:

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1285151854641344518

"Costism" overturns Pedro Nuno Santos' intention to gain weight in the PS federal elections

The Socialist Party (PS) held regional party election during last weekend. Around 50,000 PS members were registered to vote and 56.3% cast a ballot. All 19 party regional structures were up for election. Pedro Nuno Santos, minister of Infrastructures and possible future contender in the PS leadership more aligned with the left wing of the party, supported several candidates that were defeated by more moderate candidates, like in Viseu and Coimbra where candidates close to Pedro Nuno Santos polled at 47% and 38% respectably. Nonetheless, some PS members close to Pedro Nuno Santos were reelected in Lisbon, Braga and Aveiro but were single list elections and had support from both wings.

António Costa, PM and PS leader, thanked every one who ran in the elections adding that they contributed for reaffirming the wealth of pluralism and diversity of opinions whitin the PS. However, and although the left wing of the PS didn't make gains this time, some media outlets are considering these party elections another step in Pedro Nuno Santos strategy for the future. No one is challenging Costa right now, or in the very near future, but many of the candidates elected during the weekend will probably be candidates for the 2021 local elections which could be crucial for the future of the PS in power for the next few years.

[Mike88]

PS and PSD approve new Parliamentary rules: PM only has to go to Parliament every 2 months.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1285509718828560390

Parliament: PS and PSD want Prime Minister to only go to Parliament every two months

The two main parties, PS and PSD which control 81% of Parliament, passed, today, new Parliamentary rules that end the biweekly PM Q&A debates and only demands the PM to be part in Q&A debates every 2 months as the Q&A debates are monthly but the PM and cabinet members can alternate their presence. The PS proposal, negotiated with the PSD, was the one that passed. Smaller parties, BE, CDU, CDS, PAN, CHEGA and IL, all criticized the new rules accusing the 2 main parties of having no "shame", that this is a big scandal and that Parliament is being downgraded by PS and PSD.

[Mike88]

2021 elections: Mayor of Castelo Branco forced out of office by the Courts.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1285557161926422529

Mayor of Castelo Branco loses mandate

The mayor of Castelo Branco, Luís Correia (PS), has lost his mandate by order of the Constitutional Court. Mr Correia is involved in a corruption investigation where he's accused of signing several contracts with his father's company with no competition. The mayor has accepted the Court' decision but says it's an unjust one and that he's being attacked by a "smear and demagogic campaign". He added that in his 7 years as mayor he worked always for the people of Castelo Branco and that he did everything in a clear conscience. Mr Correia was in his 2nd term and was eligible for a 3rd run in 2021.

The deputy mayor will now succeed him and run the city until the 2021 elections. However, the local PS is very divided with internal infighting between the more "younger" wing of the party, in which Mr Correia was part of, and the old guard of the party who want to take back power. Some even suggest talking with the PSD in order to defeat a PS led by Mr. Correia' wing. Nonetheless, this tactic isn't very well seen in the PSD.

Castelo Branco is a PS stronghold, as the PS only polled 2nd once in the last 27 years. Therefore, the PS will likely hold this city in 2021, even with party infighting. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll on the 2021 Presidential election:

Vote share %:

70.8% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+8.2)
  9.7% Ana Gomes (-1.1)
  5.0% André Ventura (-4.8 )
  4.0% Marisa Matias (-1.4)
  2.6% Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.7)
  3.9% Others
  4.0% None/Undecided

Poll conducted between 8 and 13 July 2020. Polled 620 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

[Mike88]

Azores 2020 elections: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is receiving parties, today, to call a date for the regional elections:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1285937199083659266

Elections: PPM-Azores suggests that regional elections take place on 25 October

The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is meeting with the regional parties represented in the Azores Parliament, PS, PSD, CDS, CDU, BE and PPM, in order to call a date for the regional elections in the islands. PPM-Azores, the first party to be received by the President, suggested 25 October as election day. During the rest of the day, the rest of the parties will suggest a data. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa could announce a date during today or in the next few days.

[Mike88]

Many PS and PSD MPs are angry with the proposal of ending the biweekly PM Q&A debates and will vote against:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1286211954441412608

Divisions in the "Central Bloc" over the Prime Minister's presence in the AR every two months

The ending of the biweekly PM Q&A debates and changing it to a format where the PM is only forced to go to Parliament every 2 months, is revolting many PS and PSD MPs who are planning to vote against the proposal, colading with the intentions of Rui Rio and António Costa. Jorge Lacão, PS MP, says that almost half of the PS caucus will vote against. In the PSD the number could be even higher. If half of both the PS and PSD caucuses vote against the proposal, the ending of the biweekly debates would fail by 137 votes. The vote is schedule for this afternoon.

Media and pundits are also criticizing heavily Rio and Costa for supporting this. Público newspaper editoral even says that Costa and Rio share a "Salazarist DNA", like many Portuguese, by downgrading Parliamentary debates.

[Mike88]

End of biweekly PM Q&A debates approved: 21 PS MPs and 5 PSD MPs voted against, alongside the smaller parties:

The controversial end of the PM biweekly Q&A debates passed in Parliament with 161 votes in favour and 69 against. In the PS caucus, 21 MPs voted against while in the PSD it was fewer with 5 MPs voting against. Smaller parties continued to criticized the meassure accusing PS and PSD of creating a big stain in their history and CHEGA is considering sending this new meassure to the Constitutional Court as it "violates the strongest tradition of parliamentarism", said Ventura.

PS and PSD defended the new rule saying that the oversight of the government isn't in question, but the responses, from both caucus, for their spokespersons were very shy with few MPs clapping.

[Mike88]

UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper:

Vote share %:

39% PS
26% PSD
  7% BE
  7% CHEGA
  6% CDU
  3% CDS
  3% IL
  3% PAN
  6% Others/Invalid

President of the Republic job approval:

87% Good/Very good
10% Bad/Very bad
  3% Undecided

Government's job approval:

73% Good/Very good
21% Bad/Very bad
  6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 13 and 18 July 2020. Polled 1,482 voters. MoE of 2.5%

[Mike88]

State of the Nation debate: PS and PSD attack each other as Costa asks the left for a long term agreement.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1286656710527070208

State of the Nation. Costa between a Rio in combat mode and a left standing behind - RTP News

The mood between PS and PSD was quite tense in the State of the Nation debate this morning in Parliament. PSD leader, Rui Rio, attacked the government's hydrogen energy plan accusing the government of creating a new monopoly to serve special interests and that the costs for the taxpayers will be very big. PM António Costa accused the PSD of being a "fossilized" party that lives in the past and said that the hydrogen energy plan is very important for the country. Rio also accused the government of managing badly the public debt. The Novo Banco case was once again used as a weapon between PS and PSD to attack each other.

Nonetheless, in this debate, Costa challenged the left parties, BE and CDU, to form a new agreement. However the message was received with skepticism by the leftwing. CDU accused the government of pursuing policies in the wrong direction and that will not solve anything. BE said that the 2021 budget needs to answer the worries of unemployment, the NHS problems and investment in social services. The PS responded that they are willing to talk with BE but they seem to disagree on the way to solve the crisis.

The 2019-2020 parliamentary session now ended. The 2nd session of the 14th Parliament will start in mid September.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: IL nominates Tiago Mayan Gonçalves as candidate for the presidency:

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1286981965841915905

Presidency of the Republic: Liberal Initiative already has a candidate for Belém: his name is Tiago Mayan Gonçalves and he says he is "uncompromised"

The Liberal Initiative, IL, has chosen Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, a 43 year old lawyer from Porto city, as the party's candidate for the January 2021 Presidential election. Mr Gonçalves becomes the 2nd official candidate to announce his candidate, the other being André Ventura, CHEGA leader. PCP will announce their candidate in the next couple of weeks, BE will likely also present a candidate and Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is expected to officially announce his reelection candidacy in November. Ana Gomes is still considering running.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV about racism in Portugal:

Q1: Is there racism in Portugal?

68.1% Yes
29.4% No
  2.6% Undecided

Q2: Do you, or someone you know, have been victim of racism in Portugal?

82.0% No
18.0% Yes

Poll conducted between 8 and 13 July 2020. Polled 620 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: PDR leader, Bruno Fialho, also presents his candidacy to the Presidency.

https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1287678006551613440

Bruno Fialho, PDR leader, announces candidacy "on the center" for Belém

The Democratic Republican Party (PDR) leader, Bruno Fialho, has announced his candidacy for the Presidency of the Republic. Mr Fialho, a lawyer and businessman, was elected PDR leader in January 2020. He accuses Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa of being too close to the government and that, from the President, the people expect decision that help them and that the current President actions were not very positive.

Mr Fialho is the 3th candidate to officially announce a candidacy for the 2021 January Presidential election.