🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: Rui Rio fails to win in the 1st ballot by just 300 votes. A second round between Rio and Montenegro to be held next Saturday.

Final tally:

49.3% Rui Rio (15,469 votes)
41.6% Luís Montenegro (13,039 votes)
  9.2% Miguel Pinto Luz (2,886 votes)

77.1% Turnout

Rio seemed poised to win in the first ballot, but late returns were very favourable to Montenegro and Pinto Luz. The 3 candidates spoke after the final results were announced:

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1216168514668634113

Rui Rio Rui Rio thanks "expressive victory" that forces the second round by new rules.

Rui Rio thanked the PSD members and ordinary voters who urged him to run for a second term and said that victory is very near, as the margin to achieve 50%+1 is just 0.6%. Rio congratulated the other candidates and said that if he wins the 2nd round, he will count on the support of Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz. Rio also refused a TV debate between him and Montenegro.

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1216154242999889921

"More voted for change than continuity," says Luís Montenegro

Luís Montenegro thanked his supporters and acknowledged that more PSD members voted against Rio than in favour in the 1st round. He did a special tribute to Miguel Pinto Luz, thanking him for his service to the party. He also challenged Rio for a TV debate. He ended his speech singing the Portuguese national anthem.

https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1216137885356822528

Miguel Pinto Luz: "We surprised all"

Miguel Pinto Luz started his speech by acknowledging his defeat and congratulating Rui Rio and Luís Montenegro. He said his candidacy surprised all because of the result and the reform proposals he laid out during the campaign.

[Mike88]

Maps of the 1st round of the PSD leadership election:



Rio was able to win the big urban areas in Porto and Aveiro, and was able to hold on to considerable support in places where Montenegro and Pinto Luz were hoping for huge margins for them, like Braga and Lisbon.

[VPH]

Maps of the 1st round of the PSD leadership election:



Rio was able to win the big urban areas in Porto and Aveiro, and was able to hold on to considerable support in places where Montenegro and Pinto Luz were hoping for huge margins for them, like Braga and Lisbon.

Interesting that Montenegro carried the PSD-heavy areas of the middle of Portugal like Leiria but that Rio nonetheless did well in the North.

[Mike88]

Interesting that Montenegro carried the PSD-heavy areas of the middle of Portugal like Leiria but that Rio nonetheless did well in the North.

He did win a lot of places in the center of the country, but not by big margins. For example, in Leiria city, Montenegro got just 2 more votes than Rio. The same happened in Viseu city, where Montenegro polled just 1 vote ahead of Rio. Plus, Rio racked up ridiculous margins in Porto and Aveiro, places where Montenegro was hoping to gain some support.

The media is basically saying Rio will probably win the second round. Miguel Pinto Luz didn't endorse any candidate, and his supporters don't like Montenegro that much. Some newspapers, like Expresso, say that the PSD base dislikes more Montenegro than Rio and that they didn't forget the January 2019 attempted "coup" by Montenegro. But, only next Saturday we'll know for sure.

[Mike88]

Also today, Local by-election in Caniçada e Soengas parish, Vieira do Minho, Braga district:

584 voters are registered to vote and there are 2 lists in the ballot: Independent and the PS. The incumbent is an independent, who is running for reelection.

[Mike88]

Caniçada e Soengas by-election - Independent hold:

71.2% Independent, 5 seats
25.6% PS, 2
  3.3% Blank/Invalid

73.6% Turnout

[Mike88]

Tensions continue in Livre: Joacine Katar Moreira could be booted out from her MP seat next weekend.

https://twitter.com/dinheiro_vivo/status/1216772282250493953

Livre holds vote to remove Joacine Katar Moreira from parliament.

Livre continues deeply divided towards Joacine Katar Moreira. Next weekend, the party's congress will be held and one vote demands the resignation of Joacine Katar Moreira as a MP, and if she refuses that, the solution is to strip the party's support for her, meaning she would become an Independent MP and Livre loses representation in Parliament.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: Rio and Montenegro start gaining Pinto Luz supporters in almost equal rate so far.

48 hours after the 1st round of the PSD leadership election, both Rio and Montenegro start gaining support from Miguel Pinto Luz supporters. Montenegro, so far, has gain the support of the PSD district leader in Setúbal and former general-secretaries of the PSD Matos Rosa and Miguel Relvas. While Rio has gained the support of former Cavaco Silva minister, Mira Amaral, and the head list MPs from Aveiro and Setúbal. At the same time, both sides are trying to mobilize their voters for a 2nd round, as fears of demobilization are real.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: PSD-Madeira boycots the second round.

https://twitter.com/tvi24ultimas/status/1217196261545259013

PSD-Madeira will boycott second round of the party' elections.

The PSD-Madeira members will not vote in next Saturday's second round of the leadership election. The leadership of PSD-Madeira made this decision to boycott the elections after the electoral commission of the party declared invalid the more than 1,700 votes from Madeira. PSD and the PSD-Madeira are in collision course due to the number of members registered to vote, as PSD-Madeira has refused to adopt the new membership fee payments rules approved last year.

[crals]

Costa is having a 2nd Christmas honestly

[bigic]

Is a split of PSD Madeira from the national PSD inevitable?

[Mike88]

Weekend of decisions in PSD and Livre:

This Saturday, almost 41,000 PSD members will vote in the second round of the PSD primaries. The last few days were marked by accusations of influences buying by both sides, and with Montenegro accusing Rio supporters of election fraud. Nonetheless, the media is predicting a Rio win and even Montenegro supporters don't believe in a victory and are now openly asking to Pedro Passos Coelho to return:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1218255012205400065

PSD. Montenegro supporters are already calling for a return of Passos (that is not turned to that).

We'll see what happens tomorrow.

And in Livre, there will be also a decision regarding the position of Joacine Katar Moreira in the party. In the party's congress, to be held this weekend, there is a motion to dump her from the party, and Ms Moreira isn't even registered to be in the party's congress. The outcome is still wide open. Livre could expell her from the party, but she could continue as a MP and Livre loses parliamentary representation. The option of Ms. Moreira resigning is quite unlikely.

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1217890681538207744

Politics - Livre's Assembly points to "avoidable" political errors from Joacine Katar Moreira.

[Mike88]

Costa is having a 2nd Christmas honestly

Well, we have seen this film several times: the PS after the 1991 election, the PSD after the 1995 election, the PSD after the 2005 election and the PS during the Costa-Seguro feud, between 2011-2014. Costa continues to ride the wave of a good economic situation, but, even with this, he got just 36% of the votes and polling after the election doesn't point to a honeymoon for Costa. IMO, the welfare crisis continues to hurt Costa and he doesn't seem very keen on proposing strong policies towards the NHS, Education, Infrastructure, etc.

But, you're right that this benefits Costa. If the biggest opposition party continues in internal battle, only the faithfull will only vote for them leaving Costa open to gain swing voters and becoming the domineering figure in current Portuguese politics.

Is a split of PSD Madeira from the national PSD inevitable?

That's basically impossible, and relations between the national PSD and PSD-Madeira have a long history of being sometimes quite tense. Cavaco Silva had feuds with Alberto João Jardim, as did Passos Coelho, and this time the PSD-Madeira has, literally, omelettes in their suits. Their argument is that they are an autonomous part of the PSD and that the national rules don't apply to them, which isn't true as PSD-Azores, the PSD-Madeira sister party, is following national rules. The relation between Rio and Albuquerque also deteriorated quite fast, and by no apparent reason, with the possibility of Albuquerque thinking that Rio was a dead men walking and that ignoring him was the way to go.

[PSOL]

Wait, why are Livre booting Ms. Moreira out?

[Mike88]

Wait, why are Livre booting Ms. Moreira out?

It's not a final decision, but it's highly likely. It all started with a vote, last November, condemning Israel's treatment of Palestine, proposed by BE. Livre' position was to vote in favour, but Joacine Katar Moreira abstained without communicating her decision to the party leadership. Then, this evolved into an accusation match between both sides, with Ms Moreira accusing Livre of not listening to her and that she was an "Independent", while Livre accused her of being bossy and not responding to their messages and calls. A party meeting tried to calm down the situation, but the tension was still there. Now, her budget vote was the final straw. Livre's official position was abstention, but she said that Livre' position didn't apply to her and that she would make her own mind. She ultimately abstained, but only after she had a meeting with the government, where also she failed to communicate the existence of that meeting to the Livre leadership. Many party members are fed up with her behavior and want her out.

[Mike88]

Big tense moment in the Livre congress when Joacine Katar Moreira spoke:

https://twitter.com/ordemespontanea/status/1218507458139893760

What it is being done here, is unacceptable. These are lies! Lies! Shame! These are utter lies! Coming here to say all these lies in front of the country?

Also during her speech, she announced she has no intentions of resigning from her MP seat and accused Livre of only using her for being black, that stutters and that was usefull to get party subsidies.

[Former President tack50]

Is a split of PSD Madeira from the national PSD inevitable?

Beyond what Mike88 said, I am fairly sure such a split would be illegal considering Portugal has a constitutional ban on regional parties

[VPH]

The notion that LIVRE is going to potentially expel their one MP they worked so hard to elect over an Israel/Palestine vote is pretty telling about how serious of a contender the party can be. I think their voters will go to PAN or BE if the party continues to not get itself together.

[Farmlands]

The notion that LIVRE is going to potentially expel their one MP they worked so hard to elect over an Israel/Palestine vote is pretty telling about how serious of a contender the party can be. I think their voters will go to PAN or BE if the party continues to not get itself together.

It's been a hilarious trainwreck to watch from here. As someone who was once considering voting for them in the next European elections, due to their pro-EU stance: no way, no how. They've proven themselves to be one of the most incompetent elected parties in Portugal's history.

[Mike88]

Livre congress: Decision on expelling Joacine Katar Moreira as a MP defeated by just 2 votes (52 to 50)

Joacine Katar Moreira expulsion as an MP was postponed to a later Livre meeting as the vote to decide her future was defeated by just 2 votes, 52 to 50. Her position will, now, be decided in a Livre party assembly with the new elected members of the party leadership, which are being elected in this weekend's party congress.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: Polls opened at 14:00 and will close at 20:00h:

Polls for the 2nd round of the PSD leadership election are now open. They opened at 14:00h and will stay open until 20:00h. There are almost 41,000 members registered.

Results will start to be released after polls close in here: https://www.psd.pt/psd-ao-segundo/

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: According to SIC Notícias, turnout seems lower than in the 1st round, a week ago, when 79% of PSD registered members voted. It's unclear who's benefiting from this.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership election: Rui Rio is re-elected.

53.1% Rui Rio (17,009 votes)
46.9% Luís Montenegro (15,018 votes)

79.7% Turnout

[Mike88]

Candidates reactions:

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1218682615772913665

Rui Rio, President of the PSD. "There was a time to mark differences, now it is time to mark the unity"

Rui Rio said the party voted for estability and also said he hopes he can work with "stability and loyalty", adding that the party isn't "divided" and it's time to unite the party. He concluded saying that he won the PSD and now it's time to win the country.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1218665501196464128

Montenegro: "May Rui Rio give back unity to the PSD"

Luís Montenegro congratulated Rui Rio and asked Rio to unite the party after these primaries. He said he would go back to became an ordinary party base member but, added that people should not declare him as politically dead.

[Mike88]

Maps of the 2nd round of the PSD leadership election: