🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Former President tack50]

Another interesting point from the polling released today:

https://twitter.com/pt_politica/status/1273963067458666496

Aximage: The CDS, if the elections were held today, according to Aximage, would have its worst result ever and would not be able to elect a deputy to the Assembly of the Republic.
However, the Intercampus survey shows an opposite trend, upward.

At this point I am almost tempted to say that CDS should just fold and merge into PSD. It seems to be on life support.

[VPH]

Another interesting point from the polling released today:

https://twitter.com/pt_politica/status/1273963067458666496

Aximage: The CDS, if the elections were held today, according to Aximage, would have its worst result ever and would not be able to elect a deputy to the Assembly of the Republic.
However, the Intercampus survey shows an opposite trend, upward.

At this point I am almost tempted to say that CDS should just fold and merge into PSD. It seems to be on life support.

They were already in freefall and then CHEGA stole their thunder. The lane of "socially conservative but not right-wing populist" is really tiny as they get squeezed from PSD and CHEGA on both sides. And then IL is pushing the economic-right message more effectively than CDS-PP ever could.

[Mike88]

Another interesting point from the polling released today:

https://twitter.com/pt_politica/status/1273963067458666496

Aximage: The CDS, if the elections were held today, according to Aximage, would have its worst result ever and would not be able to elect a deputy to the Assembly of the Republic.
However, the Intercampus survey shows an opposite trend, upward.

At this point I am almost tempted to say that CDS should just fold and merge into PSD. It seems to be on life support.

They were already in freefall and then CHEGA stole their thunder. The lane of "socially conservative but not right-wing populist" is really tiny as they get squeezed from PSD and CHEGA on both sides. And then IL is pushing the economic-right message more effectively than CDS-PP ever could.

Polls can differ a bit, for example, Intercampus poll has CDS rising to 4%, basically what they got in 2019, but, nonetheless, it's a really bad result for the party. CDS is being squeezed by CHEGA and in some extent from PSD, as the more conservative voters are leaving for CHEGA while the more moderate are going for the usefull vote in the PSD against the PS. Plus, CDS seems that is always reacting not acting as they have very poor initiatives and are in a battle with CHEGA for their place on the right. Now, the problem is that CDS is becoming a copy of CHEGA and no one goes for the copy as they preffer the original.

But this creates a big difficulty for the center-right bloc in the future. Absolute majorities in Portugal's current party system are basically impossible. If the PS didn't get one in 2019, you can see the difficulty. So, this creates a problem for the PSD as they see that the only way they can get into power in the future is by negotiating with CHEGA, as IL isn't growing and CDS is collapsing. Even if in a future election, the right bloc gets a majority, it's unclear if there could be a stable pact if CHEGA becomes the dominant party on the right of the PSD.

[VPH]

Another interesting point from the polling released today:

https://twitter.com/pt_politica/status/1273963067458666496

Aximage: The CDS, if the elections were held today, according to Aximage, would have its worst result ever and would not be able to elect a deputy to the Assembly of the Republic.
However, the Intercampus survey shows an opposite trend, upward.

At this point I am almost tempted to say that CDS should just fold and merge into PSD. It seems to be on life support.

They were already in freefall and then CHEGA stole their thunder. The lane of "socially conservative but not right-wing populist" is really tiny as they get squeezed from PSD and CHEGA on both sides. And then IL is pushing the economic-right message more effectively than CDS-PP ever could.

Polls can differ a bit, for example, Intercampus poll has CDS rising to 4%, basically what they got in 2019, but, nonetheless, it's a really bad result for the party. CDS is being squeezed by CHEGA and in some extent from PSD, as the more conservative voters are leaving for CHEGA while the more moderate are going for the usefull vote in the PSD against the PS. Plus, CDS seems that is always reacting not acting as they have very poor initiatives and are in a battle with CHEGA for their place on the right. Now, the problem is that CDS is becoming a copy of CHEGA and no one goes for the copy as they preffer the original.

But this creates a big difficulty for the center-right bloc in the future. Absolute majorities in Portugal's current party system are basically impossible. If the PS didn't get one in 2019, you can see the difficulty. So, this creates a problem for the PSD as they see that the only way they can get into power in the future is by negotiating with CHEGA, as IL isn't growing and CDS is collapsing. Even if in a future election, the right bloc gets a majority, it's unclear if there could be a stable pact if CHEGA becomes the dominant party on the right of the PSD.

Yeah, this analysis makes a lot of sense. I worry about what happens if CHEGA gets an actual say in government policy. They're already pushing the overton window of Portuguese politics with 1 MP... Doesn't help that they obtain such an outsized proportion of media coverage.

[CumbrianLefty]

Aximage poll on Madeira region for JE newspaper: [/url]

Vote share %: (compared with the 2019 elections)

42.2% PSD (+2.8 )
27.5% PS (-8.3)
  2.3% CDS (-3.5)
  2.1% BE (+0.4)
  2.1% CDU (+0.3)
  9.6% Others/Invalid (-5.7)
14.2% Undecided

Poll conducted between 8 and 11 June 2020. Polled 415 voters in the Madeira islands. MoE of 4.80%.

The Centeno resignation had no impact in the polling so far. And some curious notes: according with the Aximage poll, the PSD wins the young vote (18-34 years) with 33.2% to the PS' 27.8%, plus threre's a considerable gender gap with the PS barely winning men, 34.6% vs the PSD' 33.2%, but crushing among women, 44% vs the PSD' 20.1%.

Quite a big swing against PS since last year, any possible reason?

[Mike88]

Quite a big swing against PS since last year, any possible reason?

The Madeira regional government has managed really well the pandemic, as Madeira is the only region of the country with no deaths and just 2 or 3 active cases as of today. Plus, the regional government is persuing measures, like in airports, to tightly control who enters in the islands, for example, someone who enters in Madeira has to do a test for Covid-19 that is fully paid by the government, then they wait a day for the results and if it's negative they can go out and explore the islands as normal, but if it's positive they are put in quarantine. The same is also done in Azores, I believe, but not in the rest of the country. So, this good management of the pandemic is helping the PSD, and hurting the PS. Plus, the PS-Madeira is in a process to choose a new leader and their opposition is still not very stable.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper on the 2021 presidential election:

Vote share %:

62.6% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-1.9)
10.8% Ana Gomes (+2.6)
  9.8% André Ventura (+2.4)
  5.4% Marisa Matias (+1.0)
  3.3% Jerónimo de Sousa (+1.2)
  2.8% Paulo Portas (new)
  4.1% Others/None
  1.1% Undecided

Poll conducted between 9 and 13 June 2020. Polled 610 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

TAP airlines bailout: Court accepts judicial order by the Commercial Association of Porto to block the State injection of 1.2 billion euros in TAP airlines.

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1275457223330631683

Court accepts precautionary measure from Porto Commercial Association and paralyzes State capital injection in TAP

The Supreme Administrative Court has accepted the judicial order delivered by the Commercial Association of Porto to block the State injection of 1.2 billion euros in TAP airlines. The Court will now analyze the order and will ask the State to defend themselves and will also ask the State to provide several non public documents in order to make a decision. Any negotiations for the loan are completely frozen until the Court takes a decision. The Commercial Association of Porto persued this legal action against the State because, according to them, TAP is too much concentrated in Lisbon creating a "territorial imbalance", that TAP is a private company and should find other ways to finance and that if the State will inject billion in the airline, the State should honour taxpayers by providing a service of national dimensions, contrary to the current situation.

[Mike88]

Crisis in PAN continues: PAN branch in Madeira is dissolved as all members leave the party.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1275762115664474113

PAN Madeira dissolves with criticism of the national leadership

The leadership of PAN-Madeira has left the party and has basically dissolved the party in the islands as other party members in the region are also leaving the party. The now former members of PAN are criticizing heavily the national leadership, by André Silva, labeling the leadership as intolerant with different ideas, heavily concentrated in just a few people and that, in the case of Madeira, constantly persues policies against the interests of Madeira.

PAN national leadership has already responded by attacking their former members of trying to hide their "huge political incompetence" as the results of the 2019 elections in Madeira were proof.

But, the feud between André Silva and PAN' former MEP, Francisco Guerreiro, continues to make headlines in the press.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1275538071459676160

The discussion between André Silva and Francisco Guerreiro that precipitated his exit and revealed cases of false green receipts in the PAN

According to Observador newspaper, PAN leader, André Silva, and Francisco Guerreiro had an ugly exchange of words in a party meeting, in late May 2020, in which several bad practices in PAN were disclosed. Several party aides on Parliament were being paid by Lisbon city hall in the form of green receipts, independent workers who collaborate with a company without a work contract, but these aides never set foot in Lisbon city hall. The problem is that PAN is against these kind of practices but it seems they are used inside the party. According to newspaper, party members in the meeting were shocked by the revelations.

[Mike88]

More crisis in PAN: Party loses an MP and its caucus is reduced to 3 MPs

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1276083351120605184

Another resignation in PAN. MP Cristina Rodrigues leaves the party

MP Cristina Rodrigues, elected from Setúbal district, has left PAN and will become an independent MP alongside Joacine Katar Moreira. This is another blow to PAN as the party is facing a wave of resignations and departures from the party due to the leadership of Andre Silva. Ms Rodrigues accuses the party leadership of silencing her and of blocking her work in Parliament. She also adds that the party' rhetoric has become very radical and too aggressive.

Is PAN becoming a Livre 2.0? We'll see.

[Mike88]

CHEGA will hold a "Portugal isn't racist" rally next Saturday, even though the Covid-19 virus is surging in Lisbon.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1275829312726466560

CHEGA maintains Saturday demonstration and expects 1,500 participants.

CHEGA party is expected to hold a rally in Lisbon, next Saturday, called "Portugal isn't racist". Even though the Covid-19 virus is surging in the Lisbon area, the party has announced it will hold the rally and expects around 1,500 people to show up. The party has already sent letters to Lisbon city hall and to the Interior minister announcing the rally and that all safety precautions will be met. The party has also met with the police to make the arrangements. But, CHEGA leader André Ventura had to distance himself from the intentions of several far-right groups that wanted to join the rally. Ventura had to say that CHEGA is against any violent movement that doesn't respect democracy.

[Mike88]

António Costa nominates Mário Centeno as governor of the Bank of Portugal:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1276235526056673283

Government puts Centeno ahead of the Bank of Portugal

PM António Costa informed Parliament, today, that he will nominate the former finance minister Mário Centeno as the next governor of the bank of Portugal. This nomination was expected, but a bill proposed by PAN could had blocked Centeno but the PS asked for a feedback from the ECB and that delayed the bill for more than a month, paving the way for Centeno nomination. PSD has also said it is totally against the nomination but it can't and won't stop it. All other parties are also against Centeno' nomination, only the PS says yes.

A recent poll, by Intercampus for CMTV/CM newspaper, showed that the electorate is divided on Centeno' nomination as governor of the Bank of Portugal:

Q: Do you think Mário Centeno should be Governor of the Bank of Portugal?

51.8% Yes
48.2% No

Poll conducted between 9 and 13 June 2020. Polled 610 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[CumbrianLefty]

CHEGA will hold a "Portugal isn't racist" rally next Saturday, even though the Covid-19 virus is surging in Lisbon.

Portugal isn't racist........but we are?

[Former President tack50]

But this creates a big difficulty for the center-right bloc in the future. Absolute majorities in Portugal's current party system are basically impossible. If the PS didn't get one in 2019, you can see the difficulty. So, this creates a problem for the PSD as they see that the only way they can get into power in the future is by negotiating with CHEGA, as IL isn't growing and CDS is collapsing. Even if in a future election, the right bloc gets a majority, it's unclear if there could be a stable pact if CHEGA becomes the dominant party on the right of the PSD.

I mean, it is not that hard to imagine an scenario where CHEGA props up a PSD minority government?

Granted Deputy PM Andre Ventura is a lot harder to imagine, but a minority government propped up by CHEGA is a lot more likely.

If PSD+CHEGA get a majority (but not PSD+CDS and IL), I am sure PSD would probably get into government. It would not be perfect but it would be stable enough.

The question would be whether some moderate conservatives do defect for PS in that case (and of course whether PS moderates to try and coopt PSD from the center)

[CumbrianLefty]

So there is no "cordon sanitaire" around CHEGA as there is with many similar European FR parties?

[Mike88]

So there is no "cordon sanitaire" around CHEGA as there is with many similar European FR parties?

I mean, it is not that hard to imagine an scenario where CHEGA props up a PSD minority government?

Granted Deputy PM Andre Ventura is a lot harder to imagine, but a minority government propped up by CHEGA is a lot more likely.

If PSD+CHEGA get a majority (but not PSD+CDS and IL), I am sure PSD would probably get into government. It would not be perfect but it would be stable enough.

The question would be whether some moderate conservatives do defect for PS in that case (and of course whether PS moderates to try and coopt PSD from the center)

There is a informal "cordon sanitaire" around CHEGA. No party aligns with them and all want distance. However, the relation between PSD and CHEGA is, right now, almost nonexistent. If in the beginning, a few months ago, PSD and CHEGA held some meetings to see what common ground there was between them, since then communications between both parties ceased. If fact, PSD has adopted a strategy of ignoring everything CHEGA does and says, for example, everytime Ventura says something controversial there is a huge backlash from the media, the left and some on the right, but PSD and Rio basically don't comment and ignore it. It's like the PSD is saying "he's always in the headlines because you keep talking about him".

Now, is there common ground between PSD and CHEGA if in the future, or in the next elections, they are forced to talk? Maybe, but it would be uncomfortable with the current data. CHEGA would not be part of a government as they are not prepared yet, although many of the people advising Ventura are people that left the PSD and some from the PS. PSD and CHEGA would probably reach agreements in the economic/fiscal front as both defend liberal conservatism, but the big "wall" would be social issues as the PSD is very liberal and Rio is in favour of abortion, gay marriage/adoption, euthanasia, legalization of prostitution, etc, and CHEGA is against all of this. Plus, personal relations are important here, as Rio doesn't like Ventura one bit.

However, we don't know how will CHEGA evolve. Ventura has a problem, right now, with far-right groups that are infiltrating CHEGA and although they are very small, they can make big damages in the party, and Ventura, could, in the future need to moderate his tone to turn CHEGA into a government party. The CDS had this evolution in the 90's, where after the 1991 PSD landslide, they turn to the right and became anti-Europe, very hostile towards minorities, etc and basically terminated their relation with the PSD. Some historic CDS members even left the party for the PSD. But, in the late 90's the party was deeply divided on their political standing and the more moderate wing, led by Paulo Portas, won and started to change the image of the party and became, once again, closer to the PSD. CHEGA could find it self divided in the future between those who want to persue a more moderate stand to be closer to power and those who want to continue a more aggressive tone. By then, they would have to make a decision.

Curiously, in the last few days, a political investigator in a Lisbon University, Riccardo Marchi, published a book about CHEGA and its foundation and organization:

https://twitter.com/JooSilvaCar5/status/1276256066733572097

"Chega is a party with a face but no spine"

In the book he says that CHEGA is still to associated with the image of André Ventura and doesn't have a "spine" or structure even though it has around 10,000 members. It's still a young party that is still, you can say, having their teeth born. He also talks about the feuds on the far-right and their infiltration in CHEGA, like I talked above. An interesting interview to understand what could be the future of the Portuguese right.

[Mike88]

More than 1,000 people attended CHEGA' "Portugal isn't racist" march and rally in Lisbon:

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1276904918104891393

Hundreds of people parade in Lisbon at the Chega demonstration.

More than 1,000 people attended the "Portugal isn't racist" march and rally in Lisbon, organized by CHEGA. André Ventura led the march that started in the Marquis of Pombal square and ended in the Commerce Square in downtown Lisbon. In his speech, Ventura proclaimed himself as the heir of Francisco Sá Carneiro, former PM and PSD leader, as he is the only one, according to him, that is fighting for the country against the left. He also criticized Rio and CDS leader Francisco Rodrigo dos Santos for not attending the rally, saying that this is time to fight for the country, that according to him, is being humiliated and bent by the left.

[Mike88]

Health minister in danger? PM Costa called her a liar during the meeting between scientists and politicians last week:

https://twitter.com/Visao_pt/status/1276168041638899714

Covid-19: Costa gets angry with Marta Temido and forced Marcelo to end meeting at Infarmed

It was a tense meeting the one held last week between politicians and scientists at Infarmed in Lisbon. The media is reporting that PM António Costa was quite upset during the whole meeting as specialists and scientists debunked every single theory about the surge of cases in the Lisbon area. Costa blamed the big amount of tests conducted and young people for the surge, but scientists said that doesn't explain nothing. But, Costa exploded when his Health minister, Marta Temido, was speaking and saying that the Portuguese people were put into lockdown to stop the virus. According to the press, Costa interrupted his minister, said what she was saying was a lie and that the country didn't went into full lockdown. Costa, visibly upset and angry according to sources, continued to lash out saying that if cases continue to grow it will not be his fault as no one is giving answers. Costa then abruptly ended the meeting at the dismay of the President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.

On the next day, reporters asked the health minister about the tense meeting, and Ms Temido said if the PM criticized her then he was right. Media outlets were quite stunned by this response and some are considering if Marta Temido could be in her way out of government very soon.

[crals]

If PSD win the next election (and there's no left-wing majority) I don't think they even need to talk to Chega to form a government. Ventura won't get in the way of bringing down the Socialist government.

As for CDS, I think it would make more sense for them to form a joint list with IL as the parties to the right of PSD and to the left of Chega, but I don't see it happening either as they're on opposite sides of certain culture wars such as euthanasia and cannabis.

[Mike88]

TAP airlines: Negotiations between the government and private owners near collapse. Nationalization is on the table.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1277900281771184129

TAP: Privates reject the State's proposal for TAP

Negotiations are still ongoing but the private share owners of TAP, around 45%, seem to be rejecting the State's proposal in order to inject 1,2 billion euros to bailout the airline. However, there seems to be contradictory signs on what's happening as different media outlets are reporting the story differently. Expresso newspaper is reporting that negotiations have completely failed and that the nationalization of the airline will happen, while others like Público and Observador say that the nationalization is a public threat of the government to force the private owners to reach an agreement. We'll see how this plays out.

[Mike88]

If PSD win the next election (and there's no left-wing majority) I don't think they even need to talk to Chega to form a government. Ventura won't get in the way of bringing down the Socialist government.

As for CDS, I think it would make more sense for them to form a joint list with IL as the parties to the right of PSD and to the left of Chega, but I don't see it happening either as they're on opposite sides of certain culture wars such as euthanasia and cannabis.

Yes, CHEGA wouldn't stop a PSD government, but, like I said, it's still unclear if CHEGA will persue a "moderation" of their tone, although Ventura is holding on to the radical tone. A continuing radical tone from CHEGA, in a advent of a PSD government, wouldn't necessarily bring it down, but would create a lot of headaches to Rio, if he becomes PM.

About CDS, it's a party split down the middle. The current leader isn't unifying the party and the more moderate wing constantly criticizes him. If there's a change of leadership in the near future, like Adolfo Mesquita Nunes taking over CDS' leadership, CDS could become closer with IL and form some kind of alliance. The PSD would probably see with very good eyes this alliance, as it would give them an alternative rather than talking to CHEGA.

[Mike88]

PS and PSD agree to scrap biweekly PM Q&A debates and change it to monthly Q&A debates:

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1278348260650954752

Parliament: PS agrees to pass monthly debates with the Prime Minister.

PSD leader, Rui Rio, presented a series of rules changes for Parliamentary procedures and one of them is to scrap the current biweekly PM Q&A debates and change it monthly one, as it was done prior to 2007. The PSD also proposes that Parliamentary committees should have non MPs in them, and that MPs should not evaluate incompatibilities and an Independent committee with non MPs should be created. The PS has accepted the proposal to reduced the PM Q&A debates from biweekly to monthly but is rejecting the other PSD proposals.

The changes could be implemented in the 2nd Parliament session after August 2020.

[Mike88]

TAP airlines nationalization aborted. Government and private owners seem to have reach an agreement at the last minute.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1278652138151833601

TAP. Check-in for nationalization? Flight canceled

TAP airlines will not be nationalized as it was feared a few hours ago. The option Costa's government most disliked, nationalization, was avoided in the early hours of the morning as the government and the private owners reached an agreement. The details are still being drafted, but the State will buy the 22.5% David Neelman has in TAP and will have a total of 72.5% of the company. The other 27.5% are distributed by workers, 5%, and Barraqueiro Transports, 22.5%.

[Mike88]

PSD decisive in negotiating the emergency budget with the PS, makes PCP to vote against. BE will abstain but is also unhappy with the PS.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1278790680891047937

How Rui Rio hurt the "Geringonça" with a summer Central Block

The PSD negotiated several policies with the PS during the budget debate yesterday, which surprised PCP and BE. Policies like support for managing partners, expansion of unemployment support, health workers support and childcare payments were expected to create several "negative coalitions" against the PS government, but the PSD leader, Rui Rio, decided to negotiate several of their proposals with the PS and win the support of the Socialists. Others parties were quite surprised by this "Central Bloc" and are criticizing the PSD for aligning with the PS. Nonetheless, the PSD was successful in passing many of their proposals, with some changes, with the help of the PS.

But, parties on the left aren't happy. PCP will vote against the budget, the first time in 5 years in which the Communists will not support a PS budget, as they say the convergence of PS and PSD demands an alternative. BE also criticizes this convergence between the 2 main parties. On the right, the Liberals, IL, are saying that the PSD has given up opposing the government and the PS.

The final vote of the 2020 emergency budget or supplementary budget, will be tomorrow and will only pass with the votes of the PS. PSD, BE and PAN will abstain, while PCP, PEV, CDS, CHEGA and IL will likely vote against.

[GlobeSoc]

In general, centre alliances are not a good idea and a recipe for polarization to more extreme parties, but I'm curious whether or not that will play out here as I don't know Portuguese politics well