🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

34.1% PS (+0.6)
33.5% PSD (-1.0)
  6.6% CHEGA (+0.1)
  5.5% BE (-0.2)
  5.3% IL (-0.4)
  5.1% CDU (+0.4)
  1.6% PAN (nc)
  1.2% Livre (nc)
  0.8% CDS (nc)
  6.2% Others/Invalid (+0.3)

Poll conducted between 19 and 22 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.

[Mike88]

Campaign events by the major parties:

PS - Socialist Party: Costa had very good receptions in Caxinas (Vila do Conde) and Guimarães city.

PSD - Social Democratic Party: Rio also had a very good reception in Guimarães city, where he campaigned during Sunday morning:

BE - Left Bloc: Catarina Martins held a big rally in Lisbon city.

CDU - Unitary Democratic Coalition: João Ferreira also held a rally with lot of supporters in Lisbon city.

CHEGA - CHEGA held a walkabout and rally in Póvoa de Varzim, Porto district.

[Mike88]

Costa is now open to talk with every party, bar CHEGA, after the elections:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1485608085364244484?cxt=HHwWiICsuder-J...

Costa available to dialogue with all parties except one

With polls showing a neck and neck race for first place, PM Costa seems to be changing strategy. After weeks asking for a majority and calling the "geringonça" dead, in an interview to Renascença Radio, Costa is now open to talk with every party after election, with the only exception being CHEGA. Yesterday, BE leader Catarina Martins, "invited" Costa for talks on 31 January, and now Costa says he's open to talk with the leftwing parties in order to have a stable government. Regarding talks with the PSD, Costa said that the choice in this election is between him and Rio, but added that in a democracy, the country is also a common basis of understanding, thus leaving also the door open for talks with the PSD, drawing, at the same time, the differences between both sides.

[Mike88]

This country... seriously. Several people had their wallets stolen during the PS and PSD campaign events in Guimarães city last Sunday.

https://twitter.com/ominhopt/status/1485639074442530822?cxt=HHwWjMCyib63hp4pAAAA

Several people are left without their wallets during partisan street parties in Guimarães

Several people were left without their wallets when they watched the party streets that took place, on Sunday, in Guimarães.

According to Guimarães Digital, of the Santiago Group, the PSP confirms that several complaints were presented, but without specifying the number for sure.

Also according to that body, there were people who managed to find the wallets, but without the money.

PS and PSD made walkabouts, yesterday, in Guimarães, with the presence of their respective leaders, António Costa and Rui Rio, clusters that facilitate this type of theft.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

35.3% PS (+1.2)
31.4% PSD (-2.1)
  6.9% CHEGA (+0.3)
  6.1% BE (+0.6)
  4.9% CDU (-0.2)
  4.7% IL (-0.6)
  1.6% PAN (nc)
  1.6% CDS (+0.8 )
  0.8% Livre (-0.4)
  6.5% Others/Invalid (+0.3)

Poll conducted between 20 and 23 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

Vote share %:

34.4% PSD (+5.9)
33.8% PS (-4.3)
  8.0% CHEGA (-1.0)
  6.6% BE (-0.8 )
  4.5% CDU (-0.3)
  3.2% PAN (+1.1)
  2.8% IL (-0.9)
  1.6% CDS (-0.2)
  1.4% Livre (new)
  3.7% Others/Invalid (-0.9)

Poll conducted between 16 and 21 January 2022. Polled 965 voters. MoE of 3.15%.

[Mike88]

Campaign update:

- Rio and Costa are throwing attacks against each other regarding negotiations after the elections. Rio accuses Costa of "zigzag", while Costa says he never closed any doors to other parties. Rio will campaign in the South today, Beja and Faro, while Costa will be in the North and Center of the country;

- Catarina Martins, BE leader, campaigned in Espinho, Aveiro, yesterday, and heard criticisms from voters because of the rejection of the 2022 draft budget.

- CDU temporary leader, João Ferreira, had a "misunderstanding" with PAN as in a speech, Ferreira said that PAN is the party of "artificial creations", and PAN suggested that the Communist-Green alliance were denying climate change. Ferreira then talked with Inês Sousa Real and clarified what he meant. Also, Jerónimo de Sousa is expected to return tomorrow to the campaign trail.

- CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, campaigned in Viseu city and said that Costa "smells of defeat" just like former Lisbon mayor Fernando Medina. Also, during last night, a CDS campaign car was vandalized in Faro city.

- PAN leader, Inês Sousa Real, is involved in another controversy as one of her farming companies asked to use dangerous pesticides in plantations. These events happened in 2015.

- CHEGA leader, André Ventura, is campaigning on increase support for former solders in the Colonial War, and has said that if he has more than 7%, he will demand cabinet posts in a PSD government, while bellow that share there will be no deals and his party would vote bill by bill.

- IL is accusing BE of being "desperate" for asking for a meeting with the PS on 31 January, and accused BE of having had policies, mainly on housing.

- Livre campaigned in Sintra city, yesterday, and their leader, Rui Tavares, said he also wants to participate in the meeting proposed by BE with the PS, saying that the meeting cannot be just with the two, but with all leftwing parties.

[crals]

No matter what happens next Sunday, it seems all but certain that the CDS and PAN leaders won't hold their jobs for much longer...

[Mike88]

No matter what happens next Sunday, it seems all but certain that the CDS and PAN leaders won't hold their jobs for much longer...

If those CDS numbers hold up, yep, Chicão is gone, but regarding PAN, I have my doubts. However, there could be an internal war on PAN between the more radical wing and the more moderate one, but there's no main figure opposing Sousa Real within PAN. But, of course, all of this can change.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal: (corrected)

Vote share %:

36.7% PS (+1.4)
31.4% PSD (nc)
  7.5% CHEGA (+0.6)
  5.7% BE (-0.4)
  4.3% CDU (-0.6)
  3.2% IL (-1.5)
  1.8% PAN (+0.2)
  1.4% CDS (-0.2)
  1.0% Livre (+0.2)
  6.9% Others/Invalid (+0.4)

Poll conducted between 21 and 24 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.

[Mike88]

Early voting for people in nursing homes and in isolation started today, but with disappointing numbers:

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1485971969782599682?cxt=HHwWhMCi0cXonZ8pA...

General elections. About 13,000 elderly people in nursing homes vote in advance

Today started the early voting for people in nursing homes and isolated due to Covid-19. However, the numbers are disappointing. If in nursing homes, 12,791 people have asked to vote early, of those isolated only 397 asked for an early ballot. The drop can be explained, probably, by the fact that the government has allowed those isolated to vote on Sunday, especially at the last hour of voting, between 6pm and 7pm.

[Mike88]

Campaign trail update:

Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP leader, returned to the campaign trail in a rally in Baixa da Banheira, Barreiro, Setúbal district:

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1486310919072370697

Also, PM Costa is in the middle of a "little" controversy between him and the Statistic Institute (INE) because of the 2021 GDP data. Yesterday, in a campaign event in Coimbra city, Costa announced that GDP grew 4.6% in 2021. However, INE reacted in a statement saying that they do not share GDP data with the government and that they haven't finished the work regarding the GDP numbers. In reaction to the INE statement, Costa said he didn't cited INE just used a number he has used several times in the campaign.

[Mike88]

Again, only in this country: A newspaper, Tal e Qual, made up a fake political party and people on the streets believe they were for real:

https://twitter.com/jornal_TaleQual/status/1486155586559483908?cxt=HHwWiIC5nbmo8...

We invented a party and everyone believed
We put up billboards, distributed flyers, walked with flags in hand through markets, fairs and streets. A Tal&Qual incursion into the world of parties, which say little or nothing to people.

[Mike88]

Final early voting numbers: 285,848 cast an early ballot.

The Interior ministry released the final numbers of early voting last Sunday, 23 January. Of the 315,785 voters that registered to vote early, 285,848 of them (90.52%) cast a ballot. The districts with the highest share of turnout were Évora (95.5%), Bragança (94.9%) and Castelo Branco (94.8%).

[Mike88]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

36.6% PS (-0.1)
30.9% PSD (-0.5)
  6.7% CHEGA (-0.8 )
  6.7% BE (+1.0)
  4.2% CDU (-0.1)
  3.8% IL (+0.6)
  1.8% CDS (+0.4)
  1.6% Livre (+0.6)
  1.0% PAN (-0.8 )
  6.7% Others/Invalid (-0.2)

Poll conducted between 22 and 25 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.

Also, yesterday's Pitagórica tracking poll had an error. It's PS 36.7%, not 37%. Already corrected the data in the post where the poll is posted.

[Continential]

Does Pitagórica have a left wing bias?

[Mike88]

Does Pitagórica have a left wing bias?

No, I don't think so. Pitagórica is, however, a polling company that has a lot of shifts between polls, and this tracking poll is like a rollercoaster: It started with the PS at around 10 points ahead of the PSD, then the gap closed and last weekend the PSD surpassed the PS, but since then the PS has grown again and the PSD dropped a bit.

[Mike88]

The campaign has entered in the last 48 hours.

The mood between PS and PSD is tense, very tense, with Rio accusing the PS of persuing a "shamefull dark campaign" against the PSD, while Costa is accusing the PSD of hidding their manifesto.

Rio is also furious with the PS because of a social media video where Rio accuses the Socialist campaign of perverting his words regarding the minimum wage. The PS campaign is hitting hard the PSD on the issues of NHS, taxes and wages as they accuse of being vague on these issues. Rio accuses Costa of lying to voters and says he's in favour of increases in the minimum wage, but with a robust economy that gives bigger salaries.

CHEGA is also a "weapon" between PS and PSD. Costa says that he's the enemy of CHEGA, that he's proud of it and that the PSD is being held hostage by CHEGA. Rio responds by saying that the more votes CHEGA has, the more likely Costa remains as PM adding that Costa wants CHEGA to weaken the PSD.

[Mike88]

The official election results page is now up:

https://www.legislativas2022.mai.gov.pt/afluencia

It has the list of candidates for each districts, parties/coalitions running, sample ballots, turnout updates during Sunday and after 8pm Sunday, will release official results.

[Mello]

What polls? Was there any poll besides Pitagórica's and an Aximage poll earlier this month that had something like 38-31 with PSD voters? I think all the other polls only had

I don't think party structures matter much at all during the primary era. Nobody's going to vote because some guy they barely know at the Distrital supports this or that candidate. The causation runs the other way around.

Hi there Mello Welcome to the forum. Nice to see another fellow Portuguese poster around here

There was a RTP-CESOP poll that had Rio leading Rangel 48-41% in the PSD electorate. Intercampus did also a poll, but only the data from the overall electorate was released and had Rio up 49-34%. They didn't release details of the PSD electorate data.

I can agree that party local big bosses don't have the power they once had, especially when leaders were elected by delegates in the past, but they still have some power and can sway members to one side or another, maybe not the majority, but a pretty big portion who can still make or break.

I missed that Catolica poll, thanks.

Pretty impressive how not only PSD voters seem to be a good proxy for PSD members, as you point out; but how relatively small sub-samples seem to be representative (the total sample of that poll was 878, so roughly a subsample of ~225 PSD voters).

Does Pitagórica have a left wing bias?

No, I don't think so. Pitagórica is, however, a polling company that has a lot of shifts between polls, and this tracking poll is like a rollercoaster: It started with the PS at around 10 points ahead of the PSD, then the gap closed and last weekend the PSD surpassed the PS, but since then the PS has grown again and the PSD dropped a bit.

Their 2019 tracking poll was pretty good - perhaps the most accurate one?. Didn't have these wild swings - very unusual to see this on tracking polls. No idea if it's mostly noise or undecided voters were flocking to PSD earlier in the campaign and later deciders in the last few days are going massively to PS.

Their European elections poll was also very good, their local elections poll in Lisboa was widely off the mark but so were most. Not enough data to calculate house effects but they don't seem to have a bias.


Rumour has it today's Sic/Expresso's poll is going to show PS-35, PSD-33, IL-6, CH-6, CDU-6, BE-5, PAN-2, so it seems an aggregate should show a slight PS advantage.

[Mello]

1 - I actually don't think a scenario where Chicão remains CDS leader is that implausible: good chance he's their only MP on the next legislature - that's probably the best case scenario at this point. And if that happens, there's zero chance he'll ever give up the job (except if, miraculously, he somehow manages to leverage that into a government position in the event of a Rui Rio right-wing government), regardless of who's in charge of the party.

Not really sure there are enough anti-Chicão members left to win an internal dispute in that scenario - I doubt many will be interested in the task in the first place.

Even if CDS elects no one - is the party worth saving for those people? Life as a political party without parliamentary representation is absolute hell in Portugal. Especially wrt finances. Off the top of my head, I can't think of any party that has recovered from losing AR representation? PRD? MDP/CDE? PDC?  PPM? That party of pensioners whose name eludes me right now (ps - had to check: PSN - Partido da Solidariedade Nacional - elected Manuel Sergio in 1991, no MPs in 1995, officially dissolved in 2006)?

I do think the most likely scenario is that Melo, Meireles or someone else supported by that Portas group makes a last effort to save and revive the party. But it's not far-fetched they'll just give up and a comatose CDS just goes on into a slow death under Chicão or one of his close friends.

CDS was, to a very large extent, a coalition of IL and Chega voters - the trouble is that Chega has hitherto been too low-brow, too acerbic, populist, and too much of a personality cult for most CDS members on that more conservative, traditionalist, wing (not necessarily their voters though); and IL is a bit too radical, socially liberal, strident, for those on the more liberal wing (once again, not necessarily the voters).

From Monday, they'll have larger parliamentary groups, will presumably moderate the tone (especially if they're in a majority), gain respectability - hardly surprising if, after taking over their voters, they (along with PSD) also capture what has always been CDS' biggest asset, their cadres and influencers. And this effect will be compounded if Rio becomes PM.

2 - Extremely sceptical that the entire infected/quarantined voters kerfuffle had any sort of non-negligible impact. I don't think the topic had any staying power and it didn't seem the criticism was particularly focused on the government/PS.

[Mike88]

Big polling dump:

UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper:

Vote share %:

36% PS (-1), 95/105 seats
33% PSD (nc), 89/99
  6% IL (+1), 5/10
  6% CHEGA (nc), 7/9
  6% BE (+1), 6/13
  5% CDU (-1), 4/10
  2% Livre (nc), 1/2
  2% CDS (nc), 0/2
  2% PAN (nc), 1/2
  2% Others/Invalid (-1)

Poll conducted between 19 and 26 January 2022. Polled 2,192 voters. MoE of 2.10%.

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC TV/Expresso newspaper:

Vote share %:

35% PS (-3), 92/106 seats
33% PSD (+2), 87/101
  6% CHEGA (-1), 6/12
  6% IL (+2), 7/13
  6% CDU (nc), 6/12
  5% BE (nc), 4/10
  2% PAN (nc), 1/3
  1% CDS (-1), 0/1
  1% Livre (new), 0/1
  2% Others (+1), 0
  3% Blank/Invalid (-1)

Poll conducted between 18 and 24 January 2022. Polled 1,003 voters. MoE of 3.10%.

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

36.7% PS (+0.1)
31.3% PSD (+0.4)
  6.1% BE (-0.6)
  5.7% CDU (+1.5)
  5.1% CHEGA (-1.6)
  4.3% IL (+0.5)
  2.1% CDS (+0.3)
  1.8% Livre (+0.2)
  1.0% PAN (nc)
  6.1% Others/Invalid (-0.6)

Poll conducted between 23 and 26 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.

[Mike88]

Hi there Mello. Nice to hear from you again. Hope you will post here more in the next few days.

Yeah, CDS is really feeling the heat from the divisions on the right of the PSD. CDS was for decades the "home" of those not aligned with the PSD: Conservatives, Liberals, and so on. You're right, that with the surge of IL and CHEGA, CDS has lost its market, so to speak, and, I wrote this here some time ago, the departure of Paulo Portas was traumatic for CDS. His exit for the leadership left a deep void in the party, as basically Portas was CDS, and CDS was Portas. We'll see if they elect MPs, normally polls underpoll CDS by a lot, we'll see.

I don't see CHEGA's new parliamentary caucus to become more moderate in tone. In fact, because CHEGA is just Ventura, we're not sure what kind of people will be elected and how will they react. We have the example of the Azores, where the party basically collapsed, and CHEGA is a very weird party, without Ventura holding things up, the party wouldn't last for a day.

The isolated/infected vote controversy may have hurt the whole of the system, rather than just the government. I mean, almost every country in the world prepared for elections during Covid, while here nothing was basically done. However, will this impact turnout? Will some voting blocks be fearfull of voting thus hurting some parties, and benefiting other? Only on election day we will know.

[Mike88]

Last 24 hours of the campaign.

PS and PSD campaign events in Porto city: (PS yesterday, PSD this Thursday afternoon, all in the same street, Saint Catherine Street, a busy commercial street)

PS - Socialist Party
https://twitter.com/MorgadoGuedes/status/1486473316915458055

PSD - Social Democratic Party
https://twitter.com/slvdrmalheiro/status/1486761861425082372

This Friday, the PSD will close its campaign in Lisbon, the PS will be again in Porto, BE will also be in Porto, CDU will close in Braga, CDS and PAN also in Lisbon as well CHEGA and IL.

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for SIC TV/Expresso newspaper:

Big age gap in this poll:

18-24 years old: (10% of the electorate)

24% PSD
  8% PS
  8% BE
  6% IL
  5% CHEGA
  2% PAN
  1% CDU
  1% CDS
45% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

25-44 years old: (28%)

22% PS
20% PSD
  9% IL
  7% CHEGA
  5% BE
  5% CDU
  2% PAN
  1% CDS
29% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

45-64 years old: (35%)

31% PS
30% PSD
  5% CHEGA
  3% BE
  3% IL
  2% CDU
  1% PAN
  1% CDS
  1% Livre
23% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

65+ years old: (27%)

38% PS
25% PSD
  9% CDU
  2% CHEGA
  2% BE
  2% IL
  1% CDS
  1% Livre
20% Others/Undecided/Will not vote

Poll conducted between 18 and 24 January 2022. Polled 1,003 voters. MoE of 3.10%