🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Another voting compass, now from Público newspaper called "Electoral dating":

https://www.publico.pt/eleicoes-legislativas-2022/propostas-partidos

[Mike88]

Early voting well bellow expectations: Just 310,000 voters asked to vote early.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1484531461705318401?cxt=HHwWgoCyjfjfjpop...

Early voting on mobility. More than 310 thousand voters signed up, the Government wanted a million

The deadline to ask to vote early next Sunday, ended at midnight today and the final numbers are a disappointment. The government planned for more than a one million voters casting an early ballot, but only around 310,000 voters asked to vote early. Because of the rising numbers of covid-19, the government advised voters to vote early in order for election day, 30 January, to be calmer and with less people at the same time, but the advised was a bit ignored by voters.

[Mike88]

Campaign update:

- The PS campaign is a bit "under fire" after this morning Rosa Mota, gold medal winner in the 1988 Seoul Olympics, called Rio a "little Nazi" and that he damaged Porto city as mayor. Rio has already reacted by saying that the PS is "nervous" and is already starting with the insults. Costa is hold a rally in Castelo Branco city later tonight;

- Rui Rio took the morning off campaigning to do a medical check up after bleeding from his nose twice in the last few days. He will campaign in Coimbra district today, with a walkabout in the city center and a rally at the end of the afternoon;

- Catarina Martins, BE leader, visited a Health Center in Lisbon, this morning, to raise awareness of the bad working conditions of NHS workers. She downplayed the polls, that are giving very low results to her party, and warned that are still a lot of undecideds;

- João Oliveira, CDU "temporary" campaign head, campaigned today in Silves, Algarve and, like Martins, also visited a Health Center. He trashed Costa for running away from a possible negotiations with the leftwing parties after 30 January. Jerónimo de Sousa is expected to return to the campaign trail next Wednesday;

- João Cotrim Figueiredo, IL, visited an University in Lisbon this morning, and talked about the polls that put the Liberals "neck and neck" with CHEGA, BE and CDU, and that he thinks it's fun having so much parties fighting for 3rd place;

- André Ventura, CHEGA leader, is campaigning in the North of the country today, but CHEGA's campaign was haunted, yesterday evening, with the news that their website and database were hacked. Despite news agencies saying that the website appears to be running as normal, the party said they cannot access some of their data.

- CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, campaigned in Porto city, this morning, and that he's confident about a possible rightwing majority in order to block Costa from governing. Regarding the possibility of cabinet posts in a PSD government, Rodrigues dos Santos wants to see first his party's final result.

- PAN leader, Inês Sousa Real, was received with insults in Beja city, from bullfighting supporters and workers, plus some farmers also. They accused her of being "fascist", and Sousa Real said the insults towards her and her party are regrettable.

[CumbrianLefty]

New polling:

SNIP

I hope this isn't cherry-picking and we actually will soon have a race on our hands. Competition is good.

Yes, we'll have to wait for more polls to see if this trend is clear or not, because so far the race has been like a "yo-yo": the PS down, PSD up, then PS up, PSD down, and so on. By the end of the weekend, we will know for sure. The election is in 9 days.

Could these latest poll moves be the PSD getting a bit of a "debate bounce"?

[Mike88]

New polling:

SNIP

I hope this isn't cherry-picking and we actually will soon have a race on our hands. Competition is good.

Yes, we'll have to wait for more polls to see if this trend is clear or not, because so far the race has been like a "yo-yo": the PS down, PSD up, then PS up, PSD down, and so on. By the end of the weekend, we will know for sure. The election is in 9 days.

Could these latest poll moves be the PSD getting a bit of a "debate bounce"?

Oh, yes, absolutely. Rio's good performance in the "prime ministerial debate" last week, plus the positive feedback he got from the media, are helping the PSD. Plus, their campaign has also been having a positive feedback from the media, as they report that the PSD events have always a lot of people. The main question is if it will last, we'll have to wait for more polls.

[Mike88]

Rui Moreira, Porto mayor, acquitted of all charges in the Selminho case:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1484554149911928832?cxt=HHwWgICptciImZ...

Rui Moreira acquitted in the Selminho case for "manifest lack of evidence"

The mayor of Porto, Rui Moreira, was acquitted of all charges in the Selminho case, regarding a piece of land in Porto city where Mr Moreira was accused of benefiting his family realestate while he already mayor of the city. The judge in a Porto city court ruled that there's lack of evidence and that the DA evidences were inefficient and that the witnesses didn't corroborate the DA's accusation. Shortly after, in a statement from Porto City Hall, Mr Moreira accused those who used this case against him, and attacking Rui Rio for using the case against him in the 2021 local elections, as both have a long feud for a long time now, and that this case was always political. The DA office will, however, appeal this ruling.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

34.6% PS (-1.9)
33.5% PSD (+0.6)
  6.3% CHEGA (nc)
  6.3% IL (+1.1)
  4.9% BE (-0.1)
  4.5% CDU (-0.5)
  1.6% PAN (-0.3)
  1.6% Livre (+0.1)
  1.2% CDS (+0.2)
  5.3% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%

[crals]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

34.6% PS (-1.9)
33.5% PSD (+0.6)
  6.3% CHEGA (nc)
  6.3% IL (+1.1)
  4.9% BE (-0.1)
  4.5% CDU (-0.5)
  1.6% PAN (-0.3)
  1.6% Livre (+0.1)
  1.2% CDS (+0.2)
  5.3% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%

PS+BE+CDU+PAN+Livre=47,2%
PSD+Chega+IL+CDS=47,3%

Very interesting...

[Mike88]

PS+BE+CDU+PAN+Livre=47,2%
PSD+Chega+IL+CDS=47,3%

Very interesting...

If my research is correct, this is the first poll since June 2012 that has the rightwing parties ahead of the leftwing parties.

P.S.: Sócrates is back. He appeared tonight on CNN Portugal to talk about his new "battle front" against the judge who investigated him. He now says that the judge was illegally picked and that everything surrounding the course of the investigation was illegal. He also gave a little word to Costa, saying that if wants a majority, he should not trash the only majority the PS won, in 2005 under Sócrates.

[Oryxslayer]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

34.6% PS (-1.9)
33.5% PSD (+0.6)
 6.3% CHEGA (nc)
 6.3% IL (+1.1)
 4.9% BE (-0.1)
 4.5% CDU (-0.5)
 1.6% PAN (-0.3)
 1.6% Livre (+0.1)
 1.2% CDS (+0.2)
 5.3% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%

PS+BE+CDU+PAN+Livre=47,2%
PSD+Chega+IL+CDS=47,3%

Very interesting...

If this was to be the final result - a big if - do you think there would be an (unworkable given Rio and Ventura's relationship) Right wing majority of seats or Left Wing majority? PS might be the marginal beneficiary or D'Hondt, but the smaller Right parties would probably be winning more seats than the smaller Left one - benefiting in a similar comparative fashion from the electoral system.

[crals]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

34.6% PS (-1.9)
33.5% PSD (+0.6)
 6.3% CHEGA (nc)
 6.3% IL (+1.1)
 4.9% BE (-0.1)
 4.5% CDU (-0.5)
 1.6% PAN (-0.3)
 1.6% Livre (+0.1)
 1.2% CDS (+0.2)
 5.3% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%

PS+BE+CDU+PAN+Livre=47,2%
PSD+Chega+IL+CDS=47,3%

Very interesting...

If this was to be the final result - a big if - do you think there would be an (unworkable given Rio and Ventura's relationship) Right wing majority of seats or Left Wing majority? PS might be the marginal beneficiary or D'Hondt, but the smaller Right parties would probably be winning more seats than the smaller Left one - benefiting in a similar comparative fashion from the electoral system.

I would guess a left-wing majority. CDS votes wouldn't result in any MP and IL and (especially) Chega would also have many wasted votes in rural constituencies.

[Mike88]

If this was to be the final result - a big if - do you think there would be an (unworkable given Rio and Ventura's relationship) Right wing majority of seats or Left Wing majority? PS might be the marginal beneficiary or D'Hondt, but the smaller Right parties would probably be winning more seats than the smaller Left one - benefiting in a similar comparative fashion from the electoral system.

Actually, if this was the final result, the PSD would win the most seats, while the PS would win more votes. Using this simulator: https://tiagotvv.github.io/app/vote.html, the PSD would win 97 seats, and the PS 94, with the total seats for the rightwing at 118 and 112 for the leftwing. This difference can happen as the PSD is strong in small districts and could win crucial seats from the PS in these areas, while the PS gains a lot of votes in the heavily populated districts of Lisbon and Setúbal. Because this is a parliamentary election, the party with the most seats wins, even though they would lose the popular vote. Costa would probably resign and Rio would form a minority with the possible "blessing" of the PS, at least until 2024.

[crals]

If this was to be the final result - a big if - do you think there would be an (unworkable given Rio and Ventura's relationship) Right wing majority of seats or Left Wing majority? PS might be the marginal beneficiary or D'Hondt, but the smaller Right parties would probably be winning more seats than the smaller Left one - benefiting in a similar comparative fashion from the electoral system.

Actually, if this was the final result, the PSD would win the most seats, while the PS would win more votes. Using this simulator: https://tiagotvv.github.io/app/vote.html, the PSD would win 97 seats, and the PS 94, with the total seats for the rightwing at 118 and 112 for the leftwing. This difference can happen as the PSD is strong in small districts and could win crucial seats from the PS in these areas, while the PS gains a lot of votes in the heavily populated districts of Lisbon and Setúbal. Because this is a parliamentary election, the party with the most seats wins, even though they would lose the popular vote. Costa would probably resign and Rio would form a minority with the possible "blessing" of the PS, at least until 2024.

Interesting. This tracking poll is even worse news for the PS than it seemed.

[Mike88]

If this was to be the final result - a big if - do you think there would be an (unworkable given Rio and Ventura's relationship) Right wing majority of seats or Left Wing majority? PS might be the marginal beneficiary or D'Hondt, but the smaller Right parties would probably be winning more seats than the smaller Left one - benefiting in a similar comparative fashion from the electoral system.

Actually, if this was the final result, the PSD would win the most seats, while the PS would win more votes. Using this simulator: https://tiagotvv.github.io/app/vote.html, the PSD would win 97 seats, and the PS 94, with the total seats for the rightwing at 118 and 112 for the leftwing. This difference can happen as the PSD is strong in small districts and could win crucial seats from the PS in these areas, while the PS gains a lot of votes in the heavily populated districts of Lisbon and Setúbal. Because this is a parliamentary election, the party with the most seats wins, even though they would lose the popular vote. Costa would probably resign and Rio would form a minority with the possible "blessing" of the PS, at least until 2024.

Interesting. This tracking poll is even worse news for the PS than it seemed.

I'm actually quite surprised by the sudden shift in the polls, was not expecting this. But, it's still early in my view. Until mid next week, Wednesday, there will be much more polls and by then, it's basically too little too late. Also, I have my doubts about turnout and how this could affect the outcome. The whole mess of the isolated voting could be a factor.

[Mike88]

A curious topic of this general election campaign: Cats and dogs... yep

https://twitter.com/sapo/status/1484180462318723085

Zé Albino, Bala and Camões. Why did these names enter the campaign

During this week, the campaign was also dominated by a curious "dispute" on twitter surrounding cats and dogs. It started when PSD leader Rui Rio posted a tweet with a picture of his cat, saying that Zé Albino, Rio's cat, was "devastated by PAN's approach to PS". The tweet had thousands of likes and had responses from Rui Tavares cat, Camões, João Cotrim Figueiredo's dog, Bala, and even André Ventura's rabbit, Acácia, join in the debate. Rio's cat has become a sensation on social media, and this "animal debate" was even mocked in a talk show, similar to the daily show, here in Portugal by comedian Ricardo Araújo Pereira.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

34.5% PSD (+1.0)
33.5% PS (-1.1)
  6.5% CHEGA (+0.2)
  5.7% IL (-0.6)
  5.7% BE (+0.8 )
  4.7% CDU (+0.2)
  1.6% PAN (nc)
  1.2% Livre (-0.4)
  0.8% CDS (-0.4)
  5.9% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 18 and 21 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.

[Oryxslayer]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

34.5% PSD (+1.0)
33.5% PS (-1.1)
 6.5% CHEGA (+0.2)
 5.7% IL (-0.6)
 5.7% BE (+0.8 )
 4.7% CDU (+0.2)
 1.6% PAN (nc)
 1.2% Livre (-0.4)
 0.8% CDS (-0.4)
 5.9% Others/Invalid (+0.6)

Poll conducted between 18 and 21 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.

Saw in my twitter feed that this is the first poll in six years without a PS lead

[FredLindq]

What would  a poll like this be in seats?

[Mike88]

Saw in my twitter feed that this is the first poll in six years without a PS lead

Yep, the last time the PSD was ahead of the PS in a poll was March 2016.

What would  a poll like this be in seats?

In terms of seats, it would be like this: PSD - 101; PS - 90; CHEGA - 11; IL - 9; BE - 9; CDU - 8; PAN - 1; Livre - 1. Rightwing at 121, Leftwing at 109.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I'm in Portugal for now but don't really speak the language (and am leaving soon anyway) so I don't have any sense for what's cutting through, but I wonder if the whole affair with people isolating due to covid being allowed to go out to vote has hurt the government by making it seem desperate and reckless. Certainly my dad was angry about it.

[Mike88]

I'm in Portugal for now but don't really speak the language (and am leaving soon anyway) so I don't have any sense for what's cutting through, but I wonder if the whole affair with people isolating due to covid being allowed to go out to vote has hurt the government by making it seem desperate and reckless. Certainly my dad was angry about it.

Hope your stay here is going well.

Well, the whole isolated vote thing is actually a big mess, but, unfortunately, it was expected. The Portuguese electoral law is quite restrictive in terms of voting, as you are only basically free to vote on election day. The rest of options are still quite restrictive. Even for early voting, you have to register. There's no mail voting or proxy vote. The media and pundits are, of course, criticizing the government for not planning the election and they cite what happened in other countries like the US, the Czech Republic, Israel, etc. Parliament and parties are also to blame because they didn't do a thing also, nor propose changes in November. The Attorney General is even advising the government to change the law all together in order to "liberalize" the way of voting, and the media is also pushing for that, but, as I Portuguese, I doubt that parties will change a thing and I would pay to see it, to be honest.

I don't know if this subject is hurting the PS, maybe it is. One can perceive as, like you said, as reckless and many accuse the government of doing things in a hurry and "above the knee". But, other things may be on voters minds: the NHS, economy and wages, social services. And in these topics, the government is also being heavily attacked from left to right. Plus, Costa's message of "give me a majority" may not be resonating well with voters, and could also be hurting him.

[Mike88]

Early voting day.

Around 315,000 voters are registered to vote early today. The number is well bellow expectations. Unlike last year, in the Presidential elections, where there were long lines, the media is reporting no lines of voters waiting and a very calm scene across the country. There are 2,600 polling station for early voting.

I myself will vote later this morning.

[Mike88]

Just came back from voting. No lines, in 5 minutes everything was done. The weather is quite good today, sunshine, 14ºC, no wind, and there was enough time for a little walk by the sea shore and now lunch.

[Mike88]

It seems that 3 polling companies: CESOP-UCP, Pitagórica and Intercampus are doing an exit poll on early voting.

Not sure if the results will be released today.

[Mike88]

Polls for early voting are now closed.

There isn't data yet regarding turnout today, but in Lisbon city, until 6:30pm, almost 80% of voters, that registered between 16 and 20 January, voted.

There were few lines across the country, however in Oeiras city, there were lines in polling stations:
https://twitter.com/JASG1969/status/1485300752612564993