🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?

Normally there is one, and it will probably be made, but parties manifestos are still being presented, and maybe only in one/two weeks there will be a votecompass.

Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/

One thing that caught my eye when opening the "votómetro" was seeing the CDU in blue. I somehow had no idea this was a thing - I find it very bizarre given that the PCP by itself, like all communist parties, uses red.

Some media outlets use blue for CDU, and even the coalition uses that colour if you go to their website and social media pages. They have flags and campaign material in 4 colours: red, green, blue and white. The official colour of the coalition is actually blue, but because almost everybody links CDU to PCP, red is also used.

[Niemeyerite]

Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?

Normally there is one, and it will probably be made, but parties manifestos are still being presented, and maybe only in one/two weeks there will be a votecompass.

Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/

I for:

Livre 90%
BE 87%
PS 86%
CDU 75%
PAN 69%
PSD 63%
IL 53%
CDS 37%
Chega 25%

I guess I'd vote BE (or PS depending on the campaign) if I were Portuguese. I thought I had more in common with CDU and PAN. And I never really considered Livre a serious option. Can they really survive after the JKM debacle? That's surprising to me.

[Mike88]

I guess I'd vote BE (or PS depending on the campaign) if I were Portuguese. I thought I had more in common with CDU and PAN. And I never really considered Livre a serious option. Can they really survive after the JKM debacle? That's surprising to me.

I'm also a bit surprised about Livre's comeback in the polls. Yes, Tavares had good debate performances, but I'm still skeptical about Livre's chances. If they indeed survive and retain their 2019 seat, it would a major win as, like you said, the party after the whole Joacine fiasco went downhill.

Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Costa is going to get his majority.

No way. That would require getting approximately 45% of the vote, perhaps a bit less but certainly not less than 40%.

Actually, a party can achieve an absolute majority with a share bellow 40%, if the margin between the 1st and 2nd parties is wide enough, maybe 14-15%, and if smaller parties poll badly or if there is a big distribution of votes between smaller parties, as the D'Hondt method favours the largest party. But, unless the PSD colapses, it's almost mathematically impossible for Costa to win a majority.

[crals]

I guess I'd vote BE (or PS depending on the campaign) if I were Portuguese. I thought I had more in common with CDU and PAN. And I never really considered Livre a serious option. Can they really survive after the JKM debacle? That's surprising to me.

I'm also a bit surprised about Livre's comeback in the polls. Yes, Tavares had good debate performances, but I'm still skeptical about Livre's chances. If they indeed survive and retain their 2019 seat, it would a major win as, like you said, the party after the whole Joacine fiasco went downhill.

Looking like a bit of a polling recovery for both PS and (less good) Chega?

Costa is going to get his majority.

No way. That would require getting approximately 45% of the vote, perhaps a bit less but certainly not less than 40%.

Actually, a party can achieve an absolute majority with a share bellow 40%, if the margin between the 1st and 2nd parties is wide enough, maybe 14-15%, and if smaller parties poll badly or if there is a big distribution of votes between smaller parties, as the D'Hondt method favours the largest party. But, unless the PSD colapses, it's almost mathematically impossible for Costa to win a majority.

Sure, it's technically possible, but it would require a very unusual result.

[crals]

Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?

Normally there is one, and it will probably be made, but parties manifestos are still being presented, and maybe only in one/two weeks there will be a votecompass.

Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/

PSD 68%
PAN 64%
PS 64%
IL 61%
Livre 58%
BE 57%
CDS 52%
CH 51%
CDU 49%

More or less what I expected, I'm not a perfect fit for any party. Will probably vote for the PSD/CDS/PPM joint list (running in the Azores constituency).

[Mike88]

Sure, it's technically possible, but it would require a very unusual result.

Exactly.

[Mike88]

Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/

My results:

PSD 82%
CDS 74%
IL 69%
PAN 63%
CHEGA 59%
PS 52%
BE 49%
CDU 42%
Livre 39%

Pretty much as expected, but I was surprised by the 74% CDS for me... xD I supported abortion and gay rights, plus drug liberalization. Weird.

[Mike88]

Update on Jerónimo de Sousa's health:

Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP leader, was released from hospital this Monday morning after a successful vascular surgery last Thursday. He's expected to resume campaigning next weekend.

[Continential]

Are there any Portugalese votecompasses/vote matchers?

Normally there is one, and it will probably be made, but parties manifestos are still being presented, and maybe only in one/two weeks there will be a votecompass.

Here it is:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-legislativas-2022/

Got

[Mike88]

Last televised debate between the main parties: 9 party leaders debated NHS, taxes, economy and government formation.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1483223881079005186?cxt=HHwWhIC5od2QvJUpAAAA

Legislative Elections 2022: Costa asks for the first time for an absolute majority (with all the letters)

9 party leaders faced off, this evening on RTP1, to debate in the last televised debate of this election cycle between the main parties. PM Costa started the debate by asking for a strong "absolute majority", the first time he said these words, and beyond that he's quite vague and doesn't answer question regarding other scenarios. Rui Rio asked for tactical voting in the PSD, as he's the only one that can defeat Costa, but if he fails to win the election, Rio opened the door to staying on was PSD leader, depending on the party's share. BE and CDU are open to talk to the PS and resume the "geringonça". CDS tried to fight back the "tactical voting" strategy of the PSD, while PAN warned that they will not support a government that continues to sponsor bullfights. CHEGA demands ministerial position in order to support a PSD government, while IL trashed Costa for asking for a majority in exchange of nothing. Livre defended an eco-geringonça in order to influence the PS.

The debate went on to discuss topics regarding taxes, GDP, wages, etc. Catarina Martins, BE, trashed the rightwing policies, especially the PSD ones, about reducing first corporate taxes and only in second income taxes. Rio responded by saying that the country needs to create wealth in order to spread it, and that only businesses can do that, adding he would also like to reduce all taxes, but that the country's fiscal limitations forbid. Costa said that his goal is increase GDP growth and create better working conditions. When pressed by the moderator the Portugal is being surpassed by several former Iron curtain countries, Costa doesn't answer but adding that history explains it and that is time to look for the future. IL defended their flat tax policy, while PAN talked about poverty, by proposing tax and VAT cuts for families. Ventura criticized the social supports that drain money and that if the country is poor now it's PS blame. CDU defended wages increases for all, adding that the country needs to produce more. On the NHS, Rio criticized the PS for saying the PSD wants to privatize the health system, pressing that the system has issues and the fact that 4 million have health insurance is proof, while Costa responded by saying that more staff was hired and that they plan to invest more in the NHS. IL defended a "mix system" like those in Germany and the Netherlands, while CDU doesn't want the private sector in the NHS. BE criticized the PSD policies, saying that Social Democrats see as appetizing the health sector business.

On closing statements, Costa asked, again, for a stable majority, Rio defended a new economic and governmental model for Portugal, BE and CDU said, basically, that a vote in these parties is a vote to create solutions for the country, CDS trashed PAN on rural affairs, Ventura talked about corruption, PAN about gender equality, IL used TAP airlines to attack Costa and asked why the PM used Ryanair to go to a campaign event in the Azores, and Livre said that Portugal could be a leading edge economy in the European Union.

[S019]

My results:

PS: 73%
PSD: 71%
PAN: 58%
Livre: 57%
CDU: 52%
CDS: 49%
BE: 49%
IL: 45%
CH: 40%

To Mike88: Is there any polls on who the public believes won this last debate?

[Mike88]

To Mike88: Is there any polls on who the public believes won this last debate?

So far, no. There is only a poll regarding who won the Costa-Rio debate last week, (42% Rio; 38% Costa), but RTP will probably release a poll during this week and they could ask who won the all party debate. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Campaign update:

- Another change in the CDU campaign: João Ferreira, Lisbon councillor, candidate for MP and who was one of the substitutes of Jerónimo de Sousa while he's recovering from surgery, tested positive for Covid-19 and the CDU campaign is now fully in the hands of João Oliveira, PCP caucus leader and candidate in Évora district.

- Early voting registrations are ongoing, but, so far, only 167,000 voters asked to vote early next Sunday. The deadline is Thursday, but, unless there's a big last minute surge of registrations, the figure could be way bellow of what was expected. We'll see.

- Local governments are also freaking out for having no directives regarding voting for people infected or isolated because of Covid yet. The head of the mayors association, Luísa Salgueiro (PS-Matosinhos), is demanding an immediate decision from the Public prosecutor's office regarding the matter, otherwise they will not be able to organize the elections without having problems.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

39.8% PS (-0.3)
30.4% PSD (+1.6)
  7.5% CHEGA (-0.5)
  5.8% CDU (-0.1)
  4.5% BE (-1.4)
  4.3% IL (-0.7)
  1.7% PAN (+0.2)
  1.5% Livre (+0.2)
  1.3% CDS (+0.7)
  3.2% Others/Invalid (+0.3)

Poll conducted between 14 and 17 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%.

[VPH]

This minor party debate is just as hilarious and unhinged as I expected it to be. Between the stuffed elephant and the COVID denial insanity and the PNR guy basically owning up to being a racist, it's the most entertaining of all. At least people like Tino de Rans and the VOLT leader are relatively harmless, but thank goodness none of these have any chance of winning a seat.

Also while I'm a PS guy, the test gave me:
64% CDS
64% PSD
63% CDU
62% PS

[Mike88]

This minor party debate is just as hilarious and unhinged as I expected it to be. Between the stuffed elephant and the COVID denial insanity and the PNR guy basically owning up to being a racist, it's the most entertaining of all. At least people like Tino de Rans and the VOLT leader are relatively harmless, but thank goodness none of these have any chance of winning a seat.

Yeah, that ADN leader, Bruno Fialho, when he basically said that only 152 people died of Covid in Portugal because lawsuit BB26Xwhatever says so, I laugh so hard and even the moderator was like "What the hell?" xD. PNR, now Ergue-te, was as usual, racist, So, ADN and Ergue-te, former PNR, are parties against Covid restrictions, vaccines and testing (the ADN leader was on the debate by remote because he refused to do a Covid test or present one). PCTP/MRPP, the maoist party, was quite dull, the party was never the same after the death of their historic leader Arnaldo Matos. Tino, I thought he was quite unprepared, he was much more clearer in the Presidential campaign.

Also, the lights went out during the debate when the JPP candidate was talking about the high energy prices, the irony xD, and RTP was forced to cut to commercials.

Plus, the "elephant moment":
https://twitter.com/alf_jons/status/1483552724746657797?cxt=HHwWioCzwfnV0ZYpAAAA

[Babeuf]

Did the test (left a few Portugal-specific issues I am uninformed on as neutral) and got:

Livre 82%
BE 81%
PS 79%
PAN 69%
CDU 68%
PSD 58%
IL 46%
CDS 40%
Chega 35%

If I was Portugese I'd probably vote BE but would have to look more closely at the differences between them and CDU to be sure.

[Mike88]

Government announces that isolated people will be able to vote on 30 January:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1483791236980826116?cxt=HHwWiICjkZiRvp...

People in isolation will be able to leave their house to vote

After the government cancelled yesterday press conference about the issue, and with just 10 days before election day, the Interior minister, Francisca Van Dunem, announced, today, that voters isolated because of Covid will be allowed to vote on 30 January. There will be no special polling stations for these voters and the government will recommend that voters in this situation vote only at the last hour, between 6pm and 7pm. However, the government warns that they cannot prevent isolated people of voting during the rest of the day. The government also forecasts that, by election day, there will be around 383,000 people in isolation.

Regarding early voting, as of 2pm today, 208,030 voters have registered to vote early next Sunday. However, the government is disappointed with the current figures as they were expecting a larger number of voters, above 1 million.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

38.7% PS (-1.1)
30.4% PSD (nc)
  7.2% CHEGA (-0.3)
  5.3% CDU (-0.5)
  5.1% BE (+0.6)
  4.7% IL (+0.4)
  1.7% PAN (nc)
  1.1% Livre (-0.2)
  1.1% CDS (-0.2)
  4.7% Others/Invalid (+1.5)

Poll conducted between 15 and 18 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%

[Mike88]

Tomorrow will be the last debate before the elections, on the 3 main news radios: Antena1, TSF and Renascença. But the debate is expected to be low key as at least Rui Rio and André Ventura will not attend the debate.

Rio is campaigning in the North of the country and asked the radios if he could participate by remote, but this was rejected by the radios. Ventura's reasons are still unknown.

[Mike88]

Last debate: Governance situation was the main issue in the radios debate.

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1484122053129093122?cxt=HHwWhICqwZzJ1JgpAAAA

What will Marcelo do? Costa and opposition involve President in elections

In a debate where PSD and CHEGA leaders were absent, plus Costa arrived late to the debate, the main topic of discussion was the possible government scenarios after the 30 January elections. After arriving 10 minutes late to the debate, Costa first criticized Rio and Ventura for not being on the debate and then asked, again, for a majority and refused a new geringonça if he wins without a majority. Costa used President Marcelo as leverage against the other parties accusation that an absolute majority would be a danger to the country, saying that Marcelo will "control" the government. IL criticized Costa for using Marcelo in the campaign, while CDS asked if Costa is so close to Marcelo, why didn't his party supported him in 2021. BE and CDU didn't reacted to the Marcelo argument, accused the PS of creating a "staging" and that the PS isn't proposing anything to solve the countries problems. PAN is willing to support the PS, as does Livre. Other topics discussed were Health and Education.

[Mike88]

More political broadcasts from parties. (Big and small)

PS - Socialist Party

PAN - People's-Animals-Nature

E - Rise Up!

JPP - Together for the People

[Mike88]

New polling:

UCP–CESOP poll for RTP and Público newspaper:

Vote share %:

37% PS (-2)
33% PSD (+3)
  6% CHEGA (nc)
  5% BE (-1)
  5% CDU (nc)
  5% IL (+1)
  2% CDS (nc)
  2% PAN (-1)
  2% Livre (nc)
  3% Others/Invalid (nc)

Poll conducted between 12 and 18 January 2022. Polled 1,456 voters. MoE of 2.60%.

Pitagórica tracking poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

36.5% PS (-2.2)
32.9% PSD (+2.5)
  6.3% CHEGA (-0.9)
  5.2% IL (+0.5)
  5.0% CDU (-0.3)
  5.0% BE (-0.1)
  1.9% PAN (+0.2)
  1.5% Livre (+0.4)
  1.0% CDS (-0.1)
  4.7% Others/Invalid (nc)

Poll conducted between 16 and 19 January 2022. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.06%

[Oryxslayer]

New polling:

SNIP

I hope this isn't cherry-picking and we actually will soon have a race on our hands. Competition is good.

[Mike88]

New polling:

SNIP

I hope this isn't cherry-picking and we actually will soon have a race on our hands. Competition is good.

Yes, we'll have to wait for more polls to see if this trend is clear or not, because so far the race has been like a "yo-yo": the PS down, PSD up, then PS up, PSD down, and so on. By the end of the weekend, we will know for sure. The election is in 9 days.