🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

CDS-PP approves their lists unanimously:

The CDS national council approved the lists for the January 2022 general elections. None of the candidates running are current MPs. The head-list candidates by district are the following:

Azores: PSD-CDS-PPM coalition
Aveiro: António Loureiro, mayor of Albergaria-a-Velha;
Beja: Francisco Palma
Braga: José Paulo Areia de Carvalho
Braganza: António Lemos Mendonça
Castelo Branco: Maria Inês Amaral
Coimbra: Jorge Alexandre Almeida
Évora: Jorge Alexandre Almeida
Faro: José Pedro Caçorino
Guarda: João Mário Amaral
Leiria: António Galvão Lucas
Lisbon: Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, CDS leader;
Madeira: PSD-CDS coalition
Portalegre: Bruno Batista
Porto: Filipa Correia Pinto
Santarém: Pedro Melo
Setúbal: Cecília Anacoreta Correia, CDS spokeswoman;
Viana do Castelo: Joana Mendes
Vila Real: Vítor Pimentel
Viseu: Manuel Marques
Europe: Francisca Sampaio
Outside Europe: Rahim Ahmad

Of the main parties, only CHEGA and IL have yet to officially announce their lists.

[Mike88]

Party lists: CHEGA approves their lists for the election.

CHEGA (CH)

Azores: José Pacheco, regional MP;
Aveiro: Jorge Valsassina Galveias
Beja: Ana Moisão, councillor in Serpa city;
Braga: Filipe Melo
Braganza: Jorge Pires
Castelo Branco: João Dias Ribeiro
Coimbra: Paulo Ralha, former PS and BE member and former Union leader;
Évora: Edalberto Figueiredo
Faro: Pedro Pinto
Guarda: José Marques
Leiria: Gabriel Mithá Ribeiro, former PSD member and current CHEGA deputy leader;
Lisbon: André Ventura, CHEGA leader;
Madeira: Martinho de Gouveia
Portalegre: Júlio Paixão
Porto: Rui Afonso
Santarém: Pedro dos Santos Frazão, councillor in Santarém city;
Setúbal: Bruno Nunes, councillor in Loures city;
Viana do Castelo: Manuel Rego Moreira
Vila Real: Manuela Tender, former PSD MP;
Viseu: João Tilly, youtuber known for propagating fake news;
Europe: João Batista
Outside Europe: José Dias Fernandes

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:

Vote share %:

29.4% PS (-5.3)
22.2% PSD (-2.8 )
  7.4% CHEGA (+1.8 )
  5.5% BE (-1.4)
  5.3% IL (+1.6)
  3.7% CDU (-1.1)
  2.9% PAN (-1.0)
  1.3% CDS (-0.5)
  0.7% Livre (-0.5)
  4.4% Others/Invalid (+1.9)
17.1% Undecided (+6.2)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 1 and 5)

3.1 António Costa (-0.1)
3.0 Rui Rio (+0.2)
2.8 João Cotrim Figueiredo (+0.1)
2.6 Inês Sousa Real (-0.2)
2.6 Catarina Martins (nc)
2.5 Jerónimo de Sousa (+0.1)
2.3 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (nc)
2.0 André Ventura (+0.1)

Poll conducted between 7 and 14 December 2021. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

* For some reason, Intercampus only published the raw poll numbers. No projection.

[Mike88]

And here it is:

2022 election debates: The debate calendar is revealed.

2 January: PS vs Livre (9PM on RTP1)
                 BE vs CHEGA (10PM on SIC Notícias)

3 January: PSD vs CHEGA (9PM on SIC)
                 BE vs CDU (10PM on CNN Portugal)

4 January: BE vs Livre (Afrer 6PM on SIC Notícias)
                 PS vs CDU (9PM on TVI)
                 CDS vs PAN (10PM on RTP3)

5 January: CDS vs IL (Afrer 6PM on RTP3)
                 PSD vs BE (9PM on SIC)
                 CHEGA vs Livre (10PM on CNN Portugal)

6 January: CDU vs Livre (Afrer 6PM on CNN Portugal)
                 PS vs CHEGA (9 PM on RTP1)
                 BE vs IL (10PM on SIC Notícias)

7 January: PSD vs CDS (9PM on TVI)
                 CDU vs CHEGA (10PM on RTP3)

8 January: PS vs PAN (9PM on TVI)
                 PSD vs Livre (10PM on RTP1)
                 CDS vs CDU (11PM on CNN Portugal)

9 January: PS vs CDS (9PM on SIC)
                 IL vs CHEGA (10PM on RTP3)
                 PAN vs Livre (11PM on SIC Notícias)

10 January: BE vs PAN (After 6PM on RTP3)
                   PSD vs IL (9PM on SIC)
                   CDS vs Livre (10PM on CNN Portugal)

11 January: IL vs PAN (After 6PM on SIC Notícias)
                   PS vs BE (9PM on RTP1)
                   CDU vs PAN (10PM on CNN Portugal)

12 January: CDS vs CHEGA (After 6PM on CNN Portugal)
                   PSD vs CDU (9PM on SIC)
                   IL vs Livre (10PM on SIC Notícias)

13 January: PS vs PSD (9PM; Joint broadcast by RTP1, SIC and TVI)

14 January: PAN vs CHEGA (After 6PM on SIC Notícias)
                   PS vs IL (9PM on TVI)
                   BE vs CDS (10PM on RTP3)

15 January: PSD vs PAN (9PM on RTP1)
                   CDU vs IL (10PM on RTP3)

17 January: All party debate (9PM on RTP1)

18 January: Minor party's debate (9PM on RTP1)

Adding to this, CMTV will do a series of interviews with party leaders. Radio stations could also propose debates, as in 2015 and 2019, Antena1, TSF and Renascença Radio held an all party debate.

[VPH]

Wait, so we're not getting an all-minor-party TV debate? I unironically love those.

[Mike88]

Wait, so we're not getting an all-minor-party TV debate? I unironically love those.

If it's like previous election years, they will protest, threaten legal actions and the networks will give in. In 2011, the debate was on RTP2, with the hilarious performance of PTP's candidate José Manuel Coelho. In 2019, it was, well, entertaining, to say the least.

[Mike88]

Wait, so we're not getting an all-minor-party TV debate? I unironically love those.

If it's like previous election years, they will protest, threaten legal actions and the networks will give in. In 2011, the debate was on RTP2, with the hilarious performance of PTP's candidate José Manuel Coelho. In 2019, it was, well, entertaining, to say the least.

Update: There will indeed be a debate between parties not represented in Parliament.

RTP1 will host a debate between parties not represented in Parliament on 18 January. The network will also host a debate between parties that elected MPs to Parliament in 2019: PS, PSD, BE, CDU, CDS, PAN, CHEGA, IL, Livre. This one will be held on 17 January.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for TVI/CNN Portugal:

Vote share %:

37.0% PS (-1.3)
31.7% PSD (-0.4)
  6.3% CHEGA (-0.8 )
  5.9% CDU (+0.7)
  5.9% IL (+1.7)
  4.9% BE (-0.5)
  3.0% PAN (+1.1)
  1.0% CDS (+0.2)
  4.3% Others/Invalid (-0.8 )

Q: Should António Costa be reelected or replaced?

46% Replaced
45% Reelected
  9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 7 and 12 December 2021. Polled 625 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

PSD national congress started today in Santa Maria da Feira, Aveiro:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1471978025579212801

Rio attacks PS and promises courage to make ruptures and reforms

The 39th PSD national congress started this evening in Santa Maria da Feira, Aveiro district. PSD leader, Rui Rio, opened the congress with a speech presenting his motion to the delegates. He first thanked the party's membership base for their work and commitment in the defense of a social democracy that promotes liberty, social justice, development and tolerance. He went on saying the PSD is a party of the center, that fights the excesses of the rightwing and the leftwing and he praised the party's founder, Francisco Sá Carneiro. He promises to govern with "rigor and courage", accusing the PS of being brilliant in propaganda but a major disappointment in action. With the slogan "Portugal in the Center", Rio proposed a series of reforms on the political system and in the Justice system, accusing once more the PS of not having any courage in resolving the problems of the country.

The congress will last until Sunday afternoon, 19 December, and it will end with another speech from Rui Rio. The majority of the delegates in the congress are not from Rio's lists, and the votes for the different party structures, the party's tribunal and the National Council, will be closely followed.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JN/DN newspapers and TSF radio:

Vote share %:

35.4% PS (-3.1)
33.2% PSD (+8.8 )
  7.3% BE (-1.5)
  6.2% CHEGA (-1.5)
  5.1% CDU (+0.5)
  3.7% IL (-1.0)
  2.5% PAN (-0.3)
  1.3% CDS (-0.7)
  5.3% Others/Invalid (-1.1)

Preferred PM:

46% António Costa (+2)
21% Rui Rio (+2)
19% Neither (-10)
  5% Both (+4)
  9% Undecided (+2)

Party leaders approval ratings: (compared with last poll)

António Costa: 42% Approve (+8); 23% Disapprove (-15)
Rui Rio: 33% Approve (+14); 25%; Disapprove (-16)
João Cotrim Figueiredo: 22% Disapprove (-5); 20% Approve (nc)
Catarina Martins: 35% Disapprove (-8); 25% Approve (+3)
Inês Sousa Real: 32% Disapprove (+7); 17% Approve (-8)
Jerónimo de Sousa: 38% Disapprove (-8); 18% Approve (+2)
Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos. 46% Disapprove (+9); 13% Approve (+1)
André Ventura: 63% Disapprove (+3); 12% Approve (-3)

Poll conducted between 9 and 13 December 2021. Polled 810 voters. MoE of 3.44%.

This is the smallest margin between PS and PSD in a poll since April 2016.

[Mike88]

The PSD congress has been quite calm with no major stories from it, but, for some reason, the media is saying that there's the possibility of Pedro Santana Lopes, mayor of Figueira da Foz, coming to the party's congress and make some kind of statement.

Santana and the PSD had a bitter dispute in Figueira da Foz.

[Mike88]

Costa says that the "geringonça" is over and that now it's a choice between him and Rio:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1472296937831469060

Legislative Elections 2022: Costa emphasizes that “contraption” ended in 2021 and the choice is between him or Rio

In a speech in the PS youth wing congress, PM António Costa said that the "geringonça" is over and that a leftwing majority is only with the PS, adding that in these elections that choice is between him and Rui Rio. Costa said that the last thing the country wanted was a general election and the government did everything on their power to prevent a crisis. He went on by saying that only a  PS majority can give stability to the country, as Portugal cannot have crisis every two years. He asked for the mobilization of the PS warning that the "elections are never won from the start".

During the PSD congress, at the same time Costa was speaking, many speakers were demanding that the PS should put on the table a possible support for a PSD minority government, an idea the Rui Rio, in an interview to RTP, agreed.

[Mike88]

The PSD congress has been quite calm with no major stories from it, but, for some reason, the media is saying that there's the possibility of Pedro Santana Lopes, mayor of Figueira da Foz, coming to the party's congress and make some kind of statement.

Santana and the PSD had a bitter dispute in Figueira da Foz.

Of course he didn't appear, but its' still interesting that the PSD still gets "butterflies in their stomach" every time Santana suggests he will pop up, even though everything he did in the last few years. Anyway.

PSD congress: Rui Rio says he's ready to be PM and labels the "geringonça" as a bad memory solution.

https://twitter.com/RTPNoticias/status/1472597598787674114

PSD leader regretted that the Government did not take advantage of the favorable economic situation to reduce public debt.

In his closing speech to the PSD delegates, in the party's congress, PSD leader Rui Rio said he's ready to govern and blamed the PS, and the leftwing parties" for the current crisis adding that the solution on the left is "exhausted" and is now of "bad memory". Rio went on by saying that the left parties don't propose anything for the future and only think in the present, and he trashed the Socialist's management of the last 6 years. Rio trashed their management on Education, NHS, Economy and the bailouts to Novo Banco and TAP airlines. Rio proposed "reforms without revolution", on Education, where he promissed valorization of teaching careers and on the NHS a deeper articulation between public and private systems in order to give more and faster treatments to the population. On the Environment, Rio said the fight against Climate Change is the biggest battle ahead of us, and Rio proposed a decentralized plan involving local government that would persue the reduction of polluting emissions, less cars and more green spaces in urban areas. Rio closed his speech with a Churchill quote and that the Portugal of the 21st century has to be as great as its nine centuries history.

In reaction to the speech, the PS says that Rio is aligning himself with the rightwing but refused to respond if the PS is willing to support a PSD minority government in the sake of stability. PCP said Rio's speech was "populist" and warned of the approximation between PS and PSD in "central Bloc of interests". CDS says their willing to govern with the PSD, while IL said that even though they don't see a reformist approach in the PSD, they are willing to negotiate with them. BE and CHEGA were invited to the congress but didn't showed up.

[Mike88]

Party lists: The Liberals presented their lists on Saturday, on Porto city:

Liberal Initiative (IL)

Azores: Pedro Ferreira
Aveiro: Cristiano Santos
Beja: Ana Paula Pereira
Braga: Rui Rocha
Braganza: Teresa Aguiar
Castelo Branco: Diogo Oliveira
Coimbra: Orlando Monteiro da Silva, IL's candidate for Vila Nova de Gaia city in 2021;
Évora: Maria Cabral
Faro: Cláudia Vasconcelos
Guarda: Ângelo Videira dos Santos
Leiria: Dário Rafael Florindo
Lisbon: João Cotrim Figueiredo, IL leader and current MP;
Madeira: Duarte Gouveia, IL's candidate for Funchal city in 2021;
Portalegre: Carlos Roquette
Porto: Carlos Guimarães Pinto, former IL leader 2018-19;
Santarém: Ana Rodrigues
Setúbal: Joana Cordeiro
Viana do Castelo: Ivone Marques
Vila Real: Joana Magalhães Ferreira
Viseu: Sérgio Lopes Figueiredo
Europe: Carolina Diniz
Outside Europe: Nuno Garoupa

Of the parties represented in Parliament, only PAN will not run in all districts. This Monday, 20 December, will be the deadline for parties/coalitions to present their lists in the courts. On Tuesday, the Courts will draw the lists in the ballots. The ballot order will be different in each of the 22 districts.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Oh lol. I thought that 15 debates for the last presidential election were weird, but I guess I had seen nothing yet. Congratulations to Portuguese TV networks for creating something that looks more like a sports league calendar than anything.

[Mike88]

Oh lol. I thought that 15 debates for the last presidential election were weird, but I guess I had seen nothing yet. Congratulations to Portuguese TV networks for creating something that looks more like a sports league calendar than anything.

It's a bit insane, in fact. Even the networks admit it's to much, but parties are always complaining, especially the smaller ones. Like I said in a few posts before, this model worked fine when there were just 4 or 5 parties in Parliament, but now it's just, yeah, ridiculous. The majority of people will only hear from the majority of the debates in the highlights of the 1pm or 8pm news. The debate model needs to change, maybe to, I don't know, insted of having one-on-one debates, having 3 or 4 parties debating, like two from the right versus two from the left, or something.

[xelas81]

Do party leaders have to show up debates or could the parties send someone else representing them?

[Mike88]

Do party leaders have to show up debates or could the parties send someone else representing them?

When there's a coalition, in some debates, someone else other than the coalition leader can appear. In 2015, for example, Paulo Portas represented the PSD/CDS coalition in some debates, the leader was Pedro Passos Coelho. But overall, it's basically mandatory otherwise it would give a bad image to that leader and that party.

[Mike88]

Do party leaders have to show up debates or could the parties send someone else representing them?

When there's a coalition, in some debates, someone else other than the coalition leader can appear. In 2015, for example, Paulo Portas represented the PSD/CDS coalition in some debates, the leader was Pedro Passos Coelho. But overall, it's basically mandatory otherwise it would give a bad image to that leader and that party.

Now that you mentioned, in fact, there is already an issue about the debates: PCP leader, Jerónimo de Sousa, will only appear in the main network debates and not in the news channels debates.

PCP leader Jerónimo de Sousa will only attend the two one-on-one debates next January. Jerónimo will, therefore, only debate the PS and PSD leaders on TVI on 4 January and on SIC on 12 January. He will also attend the all party debate on 17 January. In the rest of the debates between CDU and other parties, all of them in the news channels of the main networks, SIC Notícias, RTP3 and CNN Portugal, the Communists will not be represented. They accuse the networks of not ensuring "impartiality" and of creating first rate parties, PS and PSD, and then second rate parties. They refuse taking part in debates with low ratings and will not be "understated". Looking back to 2019, the exact same thing happened, I just didn't remember it.

So, the number of debates could be reduced if indeed CDU goes ahead with their position, from the current 36 one-on-one debates, to 29. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Left Bloc (BE) unveils their election manifesto:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1473307506428547073

Bloco fires at the PS's “lack of clarity” and asks for a “new cycle” with a left-wing program for four years

The BE leader, Catarina Martins, unveiled this Tuesday, 21 December, the party's election manifesto for the 30 January general elections. The main policies of BE are focused on the NHS and salaries. Catarina Martins also accused the PS of "lack of vision", and criticized Costa for opening the door for deals with the PSD, adding that they will fight for a true 4 year deal on the left and that their goal is to block the rightwing to form a government. Overall, BE's main policies are the following:

- Creation of a program to fight against informal work;
- Removal of all labour laws approved during the Troika years;
- More funding to the NHS;
- Approval of the exclusivity of doctors and nurses in the NHS;
- Reinforcement of the NHS taking into account the aging population of the country;
- Reinforcement of social supports;
- Creation of a National Care Service, public net for child, elderly and disable care;
- Investments in fighting climate change and focus on public transportation;
- Increase of the minimum wage by 10%;
- Fight against the excessive energy rents;
- Expansion of IRS tax on cryptocurrencies;

[Mike88]

Victory for the government as the EU approves the TAP airlines bailout, but with some more harsh measures:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1473363150535729154

Brussels gives 'green light' to TAP's restructuring plan but imposes remedies

The EU has approved, this Tuesday, the TAP airlines restructuring plan but imposed additional measures. The plan itself will cost almost 3 billion euros and the EU is forcing TAP to give up 18 slots per day to other airlines and to sell or close several sister companies, like Portugália for example. The EU says the company is viable in the long hall. The TAP debate divides the country, and the government defended the plan strongly, saying that with no plan, TAP would close. This is specially a victory for minister Pedro Nuno Santos, who headed the negotiations, and who is Costa's "foe" in the PS. The minister says this is a historic day for TAP airlines and the country, adding that the government's work in now done. It's expected that during the implementation of the plan, TAP will be privatized and Lufthansa or Air France are the preferred companies by the government.

[Mike88]

Parties/coalitions running in the 30 January 2022 general elections:

Districts running; Abbreviation; Name; Ideology

  7 A - Alliance, center-right
13 ADN - National Democratic Alternative, center (former PDR)
22 BE - Left Bloc, leftwing
20 CDS-PP - CDS-People's Party, center-right (only in mainland Portugal and overseas)
22 CH - CHEGA, far-right
22 E - Rise Up, far-right (former PNR)
22 IL - Liberal Initiative, center-right
  6 JPP - Together for the People, center
22 L - Livre, center-left
22 MAS - Socialist Alternative Movement, far-left
22 MPT - Earth Party, center-right
  9 NC - We, the Citizens, center-right
22 PAN - People-Animals-Nature, center-left
22 PCP-PEV - Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), leftwing
  9 PCTP/MRPP - Portuguese Workers' Communist Party, far-left/maoism
20 PPD/PSD - Social Democratic Party, center-right (only in mainland Portugal and overseas)
  1 PPD/PSD.CDS-PP.PPM - Coalition "Democratic Alliance", center-right (only in Azores)
  1 PPD/PSD.CDS-PP - Coalition "Madeira First", center-right (only in Madeira)
  1 PPM - People's Monarchist Party, right-wing (only in Madeira)
22 PS - Socialist Party, center-left
16 PTP - Portuguese Labour Party, center-left
22 RIR - React, Include, Recycle, syncretic
19 VP - Volt Portugal, center-left

Rejected by the Courts:

19 PPM.PURP - Coalition "We are Together", center to rightwing - Rejected because of irregularities in signatures and for not issuing a response to the Court at the time required by law;

Party budgets for the election campaign:

2,450,000€ PS
2,055,000€ PSD (includes coalitions in Madeira and Azores)
   695,000€ CDU
   610,053€ BE
   500,000€ CHEGA
   385,000€ IL
   350,000€ CDS
   228,340€ PAN
     50,000€ JPP
     50,000€ NC
     48,000€ Livre
     26,000€ Volt Portugal
       2,000€ PCTP/MRPP
          200€ PTP
              0€ MPT

7,449,593€ Total

*Some parties have yet to publish their campaign budgets.

[Mike88]

CHEGA unveils their manifesto for the general elections:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1474091459003355166

Chega proposes a single IRS tax, life imprisonment and immigrant quotas

CHEGA leader, André Ventura, presented today, 23 December, the party's election manifesto for the 30 January general elections. The event happened in Loures city, where Ventura's political career really took off, and the manifesto has the slogan that Ventura said in the party congress in Viseu, last November: "God, Fatherland, Family and Work". Overall, the manifesto has 8 pages and focuses on 14 topics from economics to health, education and immigration. The main policies are the following:

- Fiscal reform that will abolish the municipal housing tax (IMI) and the creation of single IRS tax rate;
- Creation of a guaranteed minimum pension;
- Corporate tax reduction;
- Aggravation of penalties for corruption crimes and also for crimes of rape and sexual abuse of minors;
- Reinstatement of life imprisonment for crimes of murder, terrorism and sexual nature;
- Creation of a Ministry of Family;
- Creation of quotas for immigrants in Portugal;
- Increase supervision regarding the gypsy community;
- Reversal of all positive discrimination policies covering minorities;
- NHS reform with integration of public and private services;
- Impose reinforcement of police authority;
- Reforms in the Education system to increase the authority of schools and teachers;
- 45% cut in number of political jobs;

[CumbrianLefty]

Usual predictable populist right sloganising, then.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Usual predictable populist right sloganising, then.

Yes, it leapt out to me how generic these are too...