🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

That poll, wow. Rangel really failed to read the room.

its not very clear what the results will look like...
i would prefer Rui Rio but it seems like Paulo Rangel has some hard support from high PSD figures and regional leaders.
These people control a lot of voters and preferences soo its still a bit to soon to make assumptions.
And these last polls have been called as very strange because the best result for the PSD in some years is right now when the party is in a battle LMFAO

What's weird about this leadership election is that polls show that Rangel isn't wanted by the electorate, while he has gained massive support in the party's structures. The PSD campaign has been somewhat calm, nothing compared with previous leadership ballots were things got nasty, but, like I wrote in my post earlier, I feel that the electorate likes Rio's "stability strategy" and are willing to support the PSD because of this. Rangel has been very vague and there's nothing really concrete from his campaign in order for the electorate to connect with him.

Looking at past elections, PSD electorate polls normally predict the winner of the PSD membership ballots, and the only exception seems to be the 2007 Menezes vs Marques Mendes race which resulted in a surprise win for Menezes, completely out of the blue. Of course, Menezes leadership was quite ephemeral, only 8 months or so.

[MaxQue]

That poll, wow. Rangel really failed to read the room.

its not very clear what the results will look like...
i would prefer Rui Rio but it seems like Paulo Rangel has some hard support from high PSD figures and regional leaders.
These people control a lot of voters and preferences soo its still a bit to soon to make assumptions.
And these last polls have been called as very strange because the best result for the PSD in some years is right now when the party is in a battle LMFAO

What's weird about this leadership election is that polls show that Rangel isn't wanted by the electorate, while he has gained massive support in the party's structures. The PSD campaign has been somewhat calm, nothing compared with previous leadership ballots were things got nasty, but, like I wrote in my post earlier, I feel that the electorate likes Rio's "stability strategy" and are willing to support the PSD because of this. Rangel has been very vague and there's nothing really concrete from his campaign in order for the electorate to connect with him.

Looking at past elections, PSD electorate polls normally predict the winner of the PSD membership ballots, and the only exception seems to be the 2007 Menezes vs Marques Mendes race which resulted in a surprise win for Menezes, completely out of the blue. Of course, Menezes leadership was quite ephemeral, only 8 months or so.

If Rangel won and the poll happens to be right, would he be kicked out quickly?

[Mike88]

If Rangel won and the poll happens to be right, would he be kicked out quickly?

Oh yes. No doubt about that. Unlike Rio, Rangel supporters have really, really high expectations from him and if he fails, it's over. If he gets elected as PSD leader and still loses the general election but gives the PSD a good result anyway, he could stay on but would probably be challenged. But, if he gets the result forecast in that poll, it's gameover.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership ballot today:

45,973 PSD members will decide, this Saturday, who will lead the party into the 30 January 2022 general election. Polls open at 2pm and close at 8pm.

Results will be posted on this website after 8pm: https://resultados.psd.pt/

[Mike88]

Polls are now open for the PSD leadership ballot.

[CumbrianLefty]

I presume, given the shortness of the timetable, that this is an online thing?

[Mike88]

I presume, given the shortness of the timetable, that this is an online thing?

Nope, paper ballot.

[CumbrianLefty]

So how does that work?

[Mike88]

So how does that work?

The 46,000 party members with paid fees, go to a polling station in a local party headquarters or in a venue rented by the party, and there they receive two ballots: One to elect the leader of the party, and another to elect delegates to the party congress.

[Mello]

That poll, wow. Rangel really failed to read the room.

Yeah, the poll results are quite surprising. It's just one poll, though, and the PSD rising trend was already visible, just like in the PS, plus, I also believe this is the best PSD share in a poll in 5 years or so. Also, some Rangel supporters had a meltdown, yesterday, on social media because of this poll. Oh, well.

Now, more seriously, I don't know if Rio's strategy of "stability at all costs", isn't sounding like music to the ears of many voters. Rio is campaigning that he's ready to talk to the PS and/or the right (CDS and IL), in order to have a stable government, the PSD winning or losing. At the same time, the PS is still undecided on which strategy to follow: talk to the right, mend things with the left or bank everything on an absolute majority? Plus, Rangel is also very vague about the "PS talk" issue, and continues pressing on the ludicrous fantasy, IMO, of a PSD absolute majority. Even though Rio's strategy is trashed daily on the media and by his internal foes, amid a pandemic surge, economic anxiety and uncertainty about the future, maybe Rio's speech is just what voters want to hear. That's my view.

That Rangel wasn't reading the room, meaning voters overall, was clear for some time now as no single poll shows him ahead of Rio, even in PSD voters. Now, let's see if the PSD members also read the room, meaning, what polls are saying, of course.

What polls? Was there any poll besides Pitagórica's and an Aximage poll earlier this month that had something like 38-31 with PSD voters? I think all the other polls only had

I don't think party structures matter much at all during the primary era. Nobody's going to vote because some guy they barely know at the Distrital supports this or that candidate. The causation runs the other way around.

[Mike88]

What polls? Was there any poll besides Pitagórica's and an Aximage poll earlier this month that had something like 38-31 with PSD voters? I think all the other polls only had

I don't think party structures matter much at all during the primary era. Nobody's going to vote because some guy they barely know at the Distrital supports this or that candidate. The causation runs the other way around.

Hi there Mello Welcome to the forum. Nice to see another fellow Portuguese poster around here

There was a RTP-CESOP poll that had Rio leading Rangel 48-41% in the PSD electorate. Intercampus did also a poll, but only the data from the overall electorate was released and had Rio up 49-34%. They didn't release details of the PSD electorate data.

I can agree that party local big bosses don't have the power they once had, especially when leaders were elected by delegates in the past, but they still have some power and can sway members to one side or another, maybe not the majority, but a pretty big portion who can still make or break.

[Mike88]

PSD leadership ballot update:

Turnout seems to be high, as in Porto city, at 6pm, more than 70% had already cast a ballot, and in Lisbon, at 5pm, more than 50% also had already cast a ballot.

In January 2020, the final turnout rate was around 80%, with more than 40,600 members registered to vote.

Polls close in an hour and a half.

[Mike88]

Polls are now closing in the PSD leadership ballot. The votes will now start being counted.

In an hour or so, we should have enough votes to see trends.

[Mike88]

First results: 7% counted

50.6% Paulo Rangel
49.4% Rui Rio

[Mike88]

34.3% counted:

54.0% Rui Rio
46.0% Paulo Rangel

[Mike88]

This is going to be really, really close. Right now, Rio has 50.3% and Rangel 49.7%, with 59% counted.

[Mike88]

Rui Rio is reelected as PSD leader.

With 94% of the votes counted:

52.3% Rui Rio (17,564)
47.7% Paulo Rangel (15,992)

[Mike88]

Almost final results, just 4 precincts yet to report:

52.5% Rui Rio (18,794)
47.5% Paulo Rangel (17,008)

  1.4% Blank/Invalid (513)

78.2% Turnout (36,315)

[Mike88]

Reactions by the candidates:

Rui Rio claims victory saying "End of chapter. Period. Now, let's win the elections":

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1464745623182196739?cxt=HHwWhoCqwceY6d...

Rio attributes victory to "grassroots members" and promises to victory in the general elections

PSD leader Rui Rio began his speech by saying that the leadership dispute is now over and now it's time for the party to focus on winning the general elections. Rio said that his victory is due to grassroots members that put always country over party. He added that many of the top bosses in the party are disconnected from the party membership. Rio also thanked Paulo Rangel for his concession and dignity, adding that they had a lengthy phone conversation. Rio went on to promise tax cuts and a series of NHS policies like family doctors for all the population.

Paulo Rangel conceded defeat and asked for unity in the party:

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1464727911458652171?cxt=HHwWloC-8cyR4dMoAAAA

Rangel has already congratulated Rui Rio on his victory and calls for "unity" in the party for the general election

MEP Paulo Rangel conceded defeat just before 10pm and congratulated Rui Rio on his reelection. He recognized that Rui Rio's position as PSD leader is now even more strengthened and called for unity in the party for the general election campaign. He added that he will he "loyal" and "supportive" of Rio in the next two months of campaigning. He also confirmed he will stay on was MEP, but ruled out any future possible run, again, for the party leadership.

[Oryxslayer]

Almost final results, just 4 precincts yet to report:

52.5% Rui Rio (18,794)
47.5% Paulo Rangel (17,008)

  1.4% Blank/Invalid (513)

78.2% Turnout (36,315)

So what do we think this means: the PSD membership wants unity and a strong alternate in the face of a chaotic election...but they also want a Conservative coalition? The coalition thing is weird given that it is driven more by outcomes then by agreeable pre-election desires.

[Mike88]

Almost final results, just 4 precincts yet to report:

52.5% Rui Rio (18,794)
47.5% Paulo Rangel (17,008)

  1.4% Blank/Invalid (513)

78.2% Turnout (36,315)

So what do we think this means: the PSD membership wants unity and a strong alternate in the face of a chaotic election...but they also want a Conservative coalition? The coalition thing is weird given that it is driven more by outcomes then by agreeable pre-election desires.

I believe the PSD membership didn't understand Rangel's candidacy and what it stand for and decided with continuity. Regarding coalitions, do you mean the possible PSD-CDS coalition, or the possibility of PSD-PS government pacts?

[Mike88]

Also, maps:

Most voted candidate by district and municipality:


Image link

[Oryxslayer]

Almost final results, just 4 precincts yet to report:

52.5% Rui Rio (18,794)
47.5% Paulo Rangel (17,008)

  1.4% Blank/Invalid (513)

78.2% Turnout (36,315)

So what do we think this means: the PSD membership wants unity and a strong alternate in the face of a chaotic election...but they also want a Conservative coalition? The coalition thing is weird given that it is driven more by outcomes then by agreeable pre-election desires.

I believe the PSD membership didn't understand Rangel's candidacy and what it stand for and decided with continuity. Regarding coalitions, do you mean the possible PSD-CDS coalition, or the possibility of PSD-PS government pacts?

Yes thank you for you your updates on the election BTW. It seemed like most of the emphasis, now that an election was imminent, was on each candidate's approach to government. Given however that outcomes decide government options, even at time break down cordons and defy pre-election statements, preferred coalitions didn't seem like a meaningful division. But maybe that's just it - few clear known divisions with the surrounding circumstances dictating the outcome.

[Mike88]

Almost final results, just 4 precincts yet to report:

52.5% Rui Rio (18,794)
47.5% Paulo Rangel (17,008)

  1.4% Blank/Invalid (513)

78.2% Turnout (36,315)

So what do we think this means: the PSD membership wants unity and a strong alternate in the face of a chaotic election...but they also want a Conservative coalition? The coalition thing is weird given that it is driven more by outcomes then by agreeable pre-election desires.

I believe the PSD membership didn't understand Rangel's candidacy and what it stand for and decided with continuity. Regarding coalitions, do you mean the possible PSD-CDS coalition, or the possibility of PSD-PS government pacts?

Yes thank you for you your updates on the election BTW. It seemed like most of the emphasis, now that an election was imminent, was on each candidate's approach to government. Given however that outcomes decide government options, even at time break down cordons and defy pre-election statements, preferred coalitions didn't seem like a meaningful division. But maybe that's just it - few clear known divisions with the surrounding circumstances dictating the outcome.

Thanks for the feedback, Well, the main difference between both, Rio and Rangel, was regarding the PS, and possible pacts with them, similar to what happened in the past. Rio is in favour of talking to the PS in order to have stability, winning or losing the elections, while Rangel refused any talks with the PS, but when pressured by the media, he was vague on what to do. My hunch, looking at recent polling and like I already posted in a few posts above, is that the electorate seems to be appreciating Rio's stability talk in a time of massive instability due to the pandemic. Many of Rangel's supporters accuse, over and over again, Rio of being Costa's puppet by not persuing a tough opposition against Costa, and Rio's position about possible talks with the PS post-election, only infuriated them more.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

So Rui Rio was re-elected after all, but by a very narrow margin, which makes sense to me. Being who I am, my interest was particularly piqued by the maps you posted - thanks as always! - I am trying to see if there are trends in where the respective candidates' support comes from, but it seems so... random. To be fair this does not surprise me since evidently in many rural municipalities it must have been a couple dozen voters at most (on which note, a real troll move would be to produce a map by freguesia). Still, any ideas?