🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

Controversy today as the PM wasn't informed of a 850 million euros loan to the Novo Banco by the State:

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1258789025709797377

Coronavirus: Novo Banco puts Government under fire again.

The report that the Finance ministry approved a 850 million euros loan to the Novo Banco, stunned the political scene. António Costa, during a debate in Parliament just yesterday, Thursday, said that no State loan to the Novo Banco would be given until the results of the audits into the banks numbers was complete. But it seems that Costa had to eat his words. According to the media, the loan was schedule since February and the PM wasn't informed about it. Costa was forced to apologize to parties in Parliament for the wrong information.

All parties, from left and right, are criticizing the loan, as the government shouldn't approve a loan before the audit results, and some accuse Costa of disrespecting Parliament. Pundits are also stunned by Costa's handling of this.

It's curious that this info, that suggests some kind of cut of communications between the PM and the Finance minister, comes out on the same day that a German newspaper says that Centeno will leave the Eurogroup chair.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper and other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

37.7% PS (+0.2)
29.4% PSD (+2.2)
  8.3% BE (-0.7)
  5.5% CDU (-0.5)
  4.0% CHEGA (+0.4)
  3.0% CDS(+0.2) 
  2.5% PAN (+0.1)
  1.2% IL (nc)
  8.4% Others/Invalid (-1.9)

Poll conducted between 4 and 7 May 2020. Polled 1,005 voters. MoE of 3.09%.

[Mike88]

Another controversy as the government bans all summer festivals until September 30th, but is open to allowing the PCP festival in September:

https://twitter.com/SICNoticias/status/1258889682693349378

Costa admits Festa do Avante if DGS recommendations are met.

The government approved a bill, to be voted next week in Parliament, that bans all summer festivals until September 30th. The Communist Party holds each year a annual big festival in early September and they were planning to hold the festival as normal. But, just hours after the government approved the bill, the wording of the texts was changes to include "festivals and other similar events", meaning the PCP festival, the Festa do Avante, was included and could not happen.

However, in an interview to Porto Canal, Costa opened the door to the possibility of the PCP festival happening as normal, with some limitations, adding that political activity of parties isn't forbidden. Costa also said that each party needs to be responsible, adding that his own Socialist Party postponed their congress "sine die".

The PCP will make a decision on the event after the bill is voted in Parliament.

[Mike88]

The Novo Banco loan controversy continues, with Centeno saying that Costa may have not known, but Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is also contradicting Centeno:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1260139166567981058

Centeno admits "communication failure" with António Costa about Novo Banco

Mário Centeno, Finance minister and Eurogroup chairman, continues in the center of a controversy surrounding the 850 million loan to the Novo Banco. In an interview to TSF radio, yesterday, Centeno said that the loan was in the 2020 budget and it was approved by the Council of Ministers. He added that there may have been a communication failure between him and the PM, but that their relationship has not been damaged, adding that his failure to inform the PM was that country couldn't afford to put at risk a big bank in the middle of huge crisis. He also said that no audit was necessary to approve this new loan. In Parliament, today, Centeno repeated the same things he said in the interview but was hammered by all parties, left to right, for his explanation of Costa's ignorance about the loan.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1260556904817967104

Marcelo pulls the rug out to Centeno: injection at Novo Banco could not happen without audit

And at the same time this happened, the PM and the President were visiting a car factory where reporters asked them about this controversy. Costa didn't talked about the issue, but Marcelo did and contradicted Centeno saying that a new loan could only happen after an audit was finished. The media is quite stunned with these remarks as it puts Centeno all alone while Costa and Marcelo start distancing themselves from Centeno. Some pundits are wondering if Centeno will really leave the government in the next few months.

And also, the PM told reporters that he hopes to visit the factory within a year again with the President "when he will be starting his second term". Media is saying that Costa has unofficially given the PS support to Marcelo reelection with this statement. The last time a PM supported a President of the opposite party was in 1991 when Cavaco Silva (PSD) supported the reelection of Mário Soares (PS).

[Mike88]

PSD leader, Rui Rio, demands the resignation of Mário Centeno

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1260638579321114626

Rui Rio aks the resignation of Centeno. "He is unable to continue"

The controversy of the Novo Banco loan is accelerating. After the PS refused to defend Centeno in Parliament and the President of the Republic contradicted the Finance minister, PSD leader Rui Rio has demanded the resignation of Mário Centeno as he was "disloyal to the Prime Minister" and that he has no ground to go on. He also attacked Costa for being silent in this whole process.

[Mike88]

Well, what a soup-opera the last few hours were.

After the President's words and the opposition demand that Centeno has to quit, the PM and Mário Centeno held an emergency meeting in the PM' official residence to discuss the situation. After a 3 hour meeting, Centeno and Costa exited together but didn't talk to the media and entered in separate cars. After that, the PM office gave a press release to the media where the PM says he has full personal and political confidence in Mário Centeno and that he will remain in the government.

The media is saying that Costa has weakened Centeno and that his exit is just a matter of time. Some media outlets say that Centeno will remain until the end of June, when his term of the Eurogroup ends, while others don't say a specific date. Many pundits, however, said that a possible exit of Centeno right now would send a bad message to markets as it would say that Portugal is in a political crisis. But, a weakened Finance minister isn't ideal also. Let's see how this plays out.

[Mike88]

More developments of the "mini political crisis" of yesterday: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has called Mário Centeno to explain his remarks about him.

The mini political crisis of yesterday, which has put Mário Centeno as lame duck finance minister continues to dominate headlines. Today, it was revealed, and confirmed by the Presidential Palace, that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa telephoned Mário Centeno to explain his remarks saying that it was all a misunderstanding, but that the President still believes that the loan should have only happen after an audit.

The "mini-crisis" seems averted for now, but the timetable for a restart seems to by the end of June/mid July, when Centeno term ends in the Eurogroup.

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1260922874967228416

Centeno, Costa and Marcelo. Does anyone come out of this movie well?

Pundits and political analysts suggest that no one looks good in the picture, criticizing both Costa and Marcelo for trying to create a crisis during these times and this controversy is more proof of lack of coordination in the government. Pundits also label Costa' announcement of a support for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa 2nd term as political spin to divert attention from the Novo Banco controversy and to try to surpass the PSD as the first to support Marcelo.

The PS was also caught by surprise by this support of Costa to Marcelo. According to the media, many PS insiders knew Costa was preparing a "stunt" about Marcelo, but no one knew what. Nonetheless, the PS headquarters were caught by surprise as this could bloc the PS in supporting any center-left independent candidate that appears, but some hope that Costa was vague enough to be able to retract this statement. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was also caught by surprise as he only wanted to talk about his reelection by November.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CM newspaper/CMTV:

Vote share %:

40.3% PS (+4.9)
23.3% PSD (nc)
  9.0% BE (-2.9)
  6.8% CHEGA (-1.0)
  5.9% CDU (+0.1)
  3.6% PAN (-1.3)
  3.6% CDS (-0.3)  
  3.2% IL (+0.7)
  0.7% Livre (nc)
  0.7% Others (nc)
  2.9% Invalid/Blank (-0.3)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.9 Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-0.1)
3.8 António Costa (nc)
3.4 Rui Rio (nc)
3.1 Catarina Martins (-0.1)
2.8 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.1)
2.7 André Silva (nc)
2.7 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (nc)
2.5 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.3 André Ventura (+0.1)
1.8 Joacine Katar Moreira (nc)

2021 Presidential elections, Vote share %: (compared with the last poll)

64.5% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (+6.0)
  8.2% Ana Gomes (-0.6)
  7.4% André Ventura (-1.9)
  4.4% Marisa Matias (-0.2)
  2.1% Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.5)
13.4% Others/Undecided (+0.9)

Note: Of the candidates listed in the poll, only André Ventura has officially announced his candidacy. Marcelo is certain to run again also. The rest are all potential candidates.

Poll conducted between 5 and 9 May 2020. Polled 620 voters. MoE of 3.90%.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: IL is considering candidates and CDS's Adolfo Mesquita Nunes is a possibility.

The Liberals are considering candidates for the 2021 presidential election, as a possible support of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is out of the picture. The party is suggesting their former leader as candidate, Carlos Guimarães Pinto, but he has refused and suggests CDS member Adolfo Mesquita Nunes. Mesquita Nunes is from the opposition towards the current leader of CDS and defends a more liberal and moderate CDS. The current CDS leader, Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos, doesn't comment this possibility and adds that a decision to support, or not, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is still to be made. If something like this goes ahead, tensions in the CDS will incraese, and if Adolfo Mesquita Nunes runs for the Presidency, he will be the 1st openly gay candidate for the Presidency of the Republic.

In the last few days, many PSD, CDS members have suggested that there should another center-right candidate in the elections in order to have a third choice, beyond Marcelo and André Ventura. The PSD official support will, without doubts, go to Marcelo, but only possibly after the summer.

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: Costa says the campaign will be different, with social distancing while André Ventura wants to postpone the elections if no rallies are allowed.

https://twitter.com/tvi24pt/status/1261672908449099777

António Costa walks his wife through the streets of Lisbon

António Costa and his wife went to downtown Lisbon to talk with people and shop owners to reassure people it's ok to go outside but that you need to be carefull and be responsible. Asked by reporters of the problems of future election campaigns, Costa said that the January presidential election will be a different one as the normal campaign of mass gatherings will not happen and social distancing will be required. Things may be different for the October 2021 local elections, he said.

However, CHEGA leader and presidential candidate André Ventura wants to postpone the elections if mass rallies are forbidden.

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1261657826826620930

Politics - André Ventura wants to postpone the presidential elections if mass events remain banned

Ventura says the current situation is hurting candidates and that if a ban in mass gatherings continues and will give a big advantage to the current President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, due to incumbency. He asks, if the bans continue, to postpone the elections to the 2nd trimester of 2021.

There's no plan to postpone any election for the moment. Elections in Azores, this October, and the Presidential election, next January, are expected to happen as schedule.

[Mike88]

More updates on the 2021 Presidential elections: Ana Gomes will reflect on a possible 2021 run.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1262134757967740928

Ana Gomes admits reflecting on candidacy for the Presidency

Ana Gomes, former PS MEP, has admitted on her weekly TV spot on SIC Notícias she will reconsider her role in the 2021 Presidential election. She previously stated she was not going to run but the announcement that Costa would support a 2nd term for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa made her change her mind. Ms Gomes said she was shocked and depressed to see António Costa announcing his support for Marcelo without hearing the PS and said that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will be the "Regime candidate" and that "it will benefit the extremists". She says that many on the center-left and center-right are worried by this scenario.

[Mike88]

2020 Azores regional elections: Interior minister is preparing the elections with social distancing.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1262323112202440705

Elections in the Azores, for now, without changes in the calendar says Ministry of Internal Administration:

As expected, the Interior affairs minister, Eduardo Cabrita, confirmed his team is working on how the Azores regional election, planned for this fall, will play out. The minister said that postponement isn't on the table, for now, but normal campaigning with big rallies and walkabouts will be "suspended" and parties have to develop new ways to get to voters.

The outcome of this election is almost certain: the PS will hold on to power, with the only doubt being if there will be a PS majority or not. Turnout could be decisive on this matter as in the 2019 general elections only 36.5% cast a ballot in Azores, a record low.

The elections are called by the President of the Republic. It's expected that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will set a date by August. 

[Mike88]

Early summary of the Azores regional elections, to be held on late September/mid October:

Polls in Azores are quite rare as it is very difficult to poll because of the big population disparity in the region, but in the last few elections the PSD has polled around 30% almost always, PS polls around 40%, but here's the doubt as they can rise to 44% or more and secure their majority. The Covid-19 management of the regional government can also favour incumbency. CDS seems to be losing steam and could be surpassed by BE, in my opinion. CDU could drop to sixth place and PAN will likely win a seat this time. PPM will hold their seat in Corvo. I believe no other party will receive enough votes to elect seats.

Using the 2019 elections as a model, here's the results:

2020 Azores election projection, using the 2019 general election results:

Vote share % and seats: (29 needed for a majority)

40.1% PS, 28/29 seats (-1/-2)
30.2% PSD, 19/20 (0/+1)
  8.0% BE, 4 (+2)
  4.8% CDS, 2 (-2)
  2.7% PAN, 1 (+1)
  2.4% CDU, 1 (nc)
  0.9% Livre, 0
  0.9% Alliance, 0
  0.8% CHEGA, 0
  0.7% IL, 0
  0.5% PPM, 1 (nc)
  8.0% Others/Invalid

36.5% Turnout
  
PS wins 8 islands
PSD wins 1 island  

Using these results, the PS could hold on or lose their majority by the slimmest of margins. It all depends on the Compensation' 5 seats, as both PS and PSD will fight for one seat, according to my analysis of the 2019 results

But, again, the Covid-19 management could affect voting intentions as Azores is one of the least hit regions of the country. I would like to hear Crals opinion as he is from the Azores and has a more in depth knowledge of Azorean politics.

[Mike88]

Some political developments:

André Ventura, CHEGA leader, was fired from his commentary spot on CMTV:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1262825114887806976

CHEGA leader, André Ventura, was fired, or rather, dismissed from CMTV. The news was reported by Visão magazine and it was confirmed by the channel and Ventura. The news is surprising many as CMTV was one of the places where Ventura gained notoriety, first as a fierce defender of Benfica and later as a political leader. CMTV, a news channel focused on crimes, controversies and gotcha reports, has said this decision is a editorial one, while Ventura says he's with good terms with CMTV and that he was always very happy there.

Also, PSD leader, Rui Rio, is once again criticizing the government support for the media to buy publicity. A total of 15 million euros will be given to several media outlets, with SIC and TVI receiving 7 million euros. 75% of the funds will go to national media and 25% to regional media. But Rio is criticizing the government support as it is discriminatory and, according to him, media outlets are as important as factories and other businesses.

https://twitter.com/RuiRioPSD/status/1262806007148838912

€ 15 million in taxes to help pay for the morning shows and Big Brothers, that came back in force. I have been attacked so much because I do not understand this democratic urgency.

Covid-19: SIC and TVI with the largest share of media support with more than 3 ME each

The PS is also in some tension after former MEP Ana Gomes announced she is considering running for President in 2021. The PS deputy secretary general has called as unacceptable Ana Gomes criticisms that democracy in the PS is suspended, as the PS chairman, Carlos César, said that maybe the PS congress, that should have been held in early May, could be postponed until after the Presidential elections. Many PS members are also upset with this delay, but the deputy PS secretary said that the Presidential matter will be discussed and that there are no tabu matters in the PS.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1262717433963520000

PS board considers Ana Gomes' criticisms of internal democracy "unacceptable"

[crals]

Early summary of the Azores regional elections, to be held on late September/mid October:

Polls in Azores are quite rare as it is very difficult to poll because of the big population disparity in the region, but in the last few elections the PSD has polled around 30% almost always, PS polls around 40%, but here's the doubt as they can rise to 44% or more and secure their majority. The Covid-19 management of the regional government can also favour incumbency. CDS seems to be losing steam and could be surpassed by BE, in my opinion. CDU could drop to sixth place and PAN will likely win a seat this time. PPM will hold their seat in Corvo. I believe no other party will receive enough votes to elect seats.

Using the 2019 elections as a model, here's the results:

2020 Azores election projection, using the 2019 general election results:

Vote share % and seats: (29 needed for a majority)

40.1% PS, 28/29 seats (-1/-2)
30.2% PSD, 19/20 (0/+1)
  8.0% BE, 4 (+2)
  4.8% CDS, 2 (-2)
  2.7% PAN, 1 (+1)
  2.4% CDU, 1 (nc)
  0.9% Livre, 0
  0.9% Alliance, 0
  0.8% CHEGA, 0
  0.7% IL, 0
  0.5% PPM, 1 (nc)
  8.0% Others/Invalid

36.5% Turnout
  
PS wins 8 islands
PSD wins 1 island  

Using these results, the PS could hold on or lose their majority by the slimmest of margins. It all depends on the Compensation' 5 seats, as both PS and PSD will fight for one seat, according to my analysis of the 2019 results

But, again, the Covid-19 management could affect voting intentions as Azores is one of the least hit regions of the country. I would like to hear Crals opinion as he is from the Azores and has a more in depth knowledge of Azorean politics.

As elsewhere in the country, it's all about Covid at the moment, and the regional government is perceived to be handling the situation well. But even regardless of that a PS victory is once again not really in doubt.

[Mike88]

As elsewhere in the country, it's all about Covid at the moment, and the regional government is perceived to be handling the situation well. But even regardless of that a PS victory is once again not really in doubt.

Yes, a PS victory isn't really in doubt, even if the PSD candidate is much well more known than the previous PSD leader from the 2016 election. My hunch is that turnout could be historically low and that this would make the election as a competition on who can get the most faithfull to vote, although the PS has an overwhelming edge that the PSD cannot overcome.

[Mike88]

2021 local elections: PSD and PS will only start choosing candidates in early 2021.

Both PSD and PS have announced that they will only start choosing candidates for the 2021 local elections during early the same year. The media is reporting that the PSD leader, Rui Rio, met with the district party leaders and set up a timetable in which the party will choose and announce candidates starting in January 2021. The PS was forced to sent a press release after Público newspaper reported that some PS candidates would be announced by August. The PS said that no candidates will be announced this year and all preparations will be done only in 2021. They added that right now the party is focused in the Covid-19 pandemic and its economic and social impacts.

[Mike88]

A Eurosondagem poll, commissioned by CHEGA, has the party at 4.3%, bellow other polling firms:

Vote share %:

37.9% PS
30.0% PSD
   ?.?% BE*
   ?.?% CDU*
  4.3% CHEGA
  3.2% CDS
  2.2% PAN
   ?.?% IL*

*Polling numbers for BE, CDU and IL were not released.

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 May 2020. Polled 2,120 voters. MoE of 2.13%

Not a very positive poll for CHEGA, as they paid for it and one that has the PSD achieving one of their best numbers in a poll in almost 4 years.

[Mike88]

Costa hires a CEO of an oil company, Partex, to design the economic plan due to the Covid-19 pandemic:

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1266671320949051392

Government asks Partex CEO to design recovery plan

The media is reporting, today, that PM António Costa has hired a CEO of an oil company, Partex, to draft the economic plan due to the Covid-19 pandemic. According to Expresso newspaper, António Costa Silva has already met with ministers to ask for ideas for the plan and is expected to met with party leaders also. Currently the CEO of Partex, an oil company that was bought by a Thai public company in late 2019, Mr Costa Silva will leave the post of CEO quite soon, according to the media. Mr Costa Silva regularly writes op-ed's in newspapers and sometimes aligns with Costa but was very critical of the decision of the government to drop natural exploration in the Algarve, as he accused the government of "being influenced by extremists".

However, on the left, some parties are criticizing Costa for this move. BE leader, Catarina Martins, says she refuses to met with Mr Costa Silva as he isn't a minister or member of the government.

[Mike88]

Only the PSD is willing to sit down with Costa's new economic adviser. BE, CDU and CDS refuse to meet with a "non-minister".

The hiring, by the government, of a CEO of an oil company to draft an economic plan for Portugal for the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic is creating some stir in parties. As of now, only the PSD is willing to meet with the new adviser, although they argue the hiring is "a surprise" and that he has no experience in government affairs and how things work in politics. The PSD also believes António Costa Silva will be a minister very soon.

The rest of the main parties are refusing to meet with António Costa Silva. BE says they will not meet with someone not in government, CDU says that they will only discuss economic plans with the proper people, and CDS says basically the same, saying they will discuss with "the government, not someone who talks for the government".

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1266791660039667712

Costa Silva says he is working "pro bono" for the government. And that integrating it is "speculation"

In remarks to ECO newspaper, Mr Costa Silva says he was invited by the PM to draft a plan for the economy, and that it will take months. He said that any idea of him joining Costa's cabinet is "pure speculation". He also added he is working pro-bono for the government, as a citizen helping his country, and that he will only leave the post of CEO of Partex in 2021.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio:

Vote share %:

44.8% PS (+2.9)
24.1% PSD (+1.0)
  6.4% CHEGA (-0.9)
  6.1% BE (-2.0)
  5.8% CDU (+0.2)
  3.3% PAN (+0.7)
  2.8% CDS (+0.2)
  1.6% IL (-1.0)
  5.1% Others/Invalid (-1.1)

Poll conducted between 16 and 24 May 2020. Polled 802 voters. MoE of 3.53%.

First time ever that CHEGA polls third and first time, in more than 4 years, that BE falls to 4th place.

[CumbrianLefty]

A bit of a contrast with those last two polls you have quoted, any possible reason?

[Mike88]

A bit of a contrast with those last two polls you have quoted, any possible reason?

I believe it's more about the methodology of each polling company. Eurosondagem has always been very favourable to either PS and PSD, and less to smaller parties. Also, Eurosondagem doesn't have a very good reputation in terms of polls predicting election outcomes. Their polling method is very stiff and there's always very small shifts between parties in their polls. Pitagórica is more reliable, it was one of the most on spot polling company in the 2019 elections, but is prone to big shifts from one poll to another, unlike Eurosondagem.

That's my take but, however, there are some trends that are consistent: PS continues to experience a "rally around the flag" effect; PSD seems to be holding to their ground by not losing support; BE is losing a lot of support, all 3 recent polls have BE falling; CHEGA seems to have stalled at around 6%; CDU is stuck also at around 6%. CDS, PAN and IL seem to not be making any breakthrough. Livre and Alliance are gone.

[Mike88]

PSD unveils their economic plan for the post Covid-19 economy:

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1268138961874169858

PSD: PSD proposes capitalization of companies and more "Autoeuropas" to relaunch the economy

The PSD unveiled, today, a series of policies from their economic plan for the post Covid-19 economy. In order to restore the economy, the Social Democrats want foreign and private investments to be the motor of the economic recovery and for that they propose corporate tax cuts, and attract big companies, like the Volkswagen "Autoeuropa", in the tech and green sector to invest and create companies and jobs in Portugal via tax breaks. The main policies are the following:

- Capitalization of companies by many ways, State and private;
- Ease fusion of small and medium size companies;
- Corporate tax cut to 17%;
- Reduction of rents for commercial spaces;
- Attract big companies to invest in Portugal from the tech, pharmaceutical and green energy;
- Creation of the Development Bank with a billion euros to invest;

The government will also present tomorrow a series of policies for the economic recovery.

[Mike88]

PM Costa announces economic policies for companies and families:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1268611115002413056

State will pay between 100 to 351 euros to workers who lost income

António Costa announced, today, a series of policies for families and companies after a cabinet meeting. The plan, called Economic and Social Stabilization Program, aims to create financial supports for families who lost income. Some other policies like investment in the NHS, Education and public works are also included. The main policies are the following:

- Stabilization complement for workers in "lay-off", where work hours are cut, for workers earning until 1,270 euros per month. The support will go from 100 to 351 euros;
- Extra family allowance for children in families with lowest earning;
- Extension of social unemployment benefits until December;
- Extension of a mortgage on credit moratoriums and creation of a moratorium on health credit;
- Increase of protection for independent and cultural sector workers;
- 400 million euros investment in "digital schooling", in order to buy computers, dematerialization of contents and ensure homeschooling to all regions and all families;
- Hiring of 2,700 new health workers and the regularization of another 2,800 health workers;
- Expansion of ICU beds to 11,5 beds per 100,000 inhabitants til the end of the year;
- Creation of a development bank;