🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Mike88]

State of Emergency extended for a 3rd time, but with more opposition than last time:

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1250882462349176834

Parliament: Criticism rises to the Government's strategy for the state of emergency, which runs until 2 May

Parliament has approved a 3rd extension of the State of Emergency until May 2nd, with the votes of PS, PSD, BE, CDS and PAN. But, PCP voted against the extension this time, along side IL and Joacine Katar Moreira. PCP and IL say that the State of Emergency isn't necessary anymore and that workers rights are being hurt by the extension. IL adds that many red lines have been crossed during the month long State of Emergency, like the limitation of freedoms.

But, António Costa announced that there will be a gradual return to normal during May. The PM announced a series of steps for the return of normal in May:

- Advising the use of masks in all public spaces and producing a huge amount of them;
- Increase the offer of public transportation to avoid overcrowding;
- Telework should continue;
- Workers can go to offices by shifts, some in the morning, others in the afternoon;
- Reopening of kindergardens and possibly some schools;
- People should book holidays in Portugal and avoid leaving the country;

[Mike88]

Economic crisis after Covid-19: Costa and Rio don't rule out austerity.

Both leaders don't say the word, but both aren't ruling out fiscal adjustments during the economic crisis following the pandemic. To Expresso newspaper, Costa doesn't guarantee that austerity will be avoided and Rio follows the same line saying that there will be fiscal constraints and that unpopular and difficult measures will be necessary.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1251271908412264461

Austerity? “I do not give an answer that I cannot guarantee tomorrow”, says Costa

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1251438051479486465

Rui Rio to Expresso: "There will be budgetary constraints"

Also, there's a controversy growing about the 25 April ceremonies in Parliament. PS and PSD agreed to hold a ceremony, as always, in Parliament with a limited number of people. However, parties on the right are fiercely criticizing the idea and CDS has already announced they will not be present in the ceremony, saying it isn't right to hold this ceremony when millions of Portuguese can't go out. A petition to cancel the ceremonies already has almost 27,000 signatures.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll on the release of some prisoners due to the Covid-19 outbreak:

Q: Do you agree that there should be a release of prisoners in Portugal because of the virus?

53.6% Disagree
37.2% Agree
  9.1% Undecided

Poll conducted between 9 and 14 April 2020. Polled 623 voters. MoE of 3.9%.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV and CM/Negócios newspapers:

Vote share %:

35.4% PS (+4.0)
23.3% PSD (+1.4)
11.9% BE (-2.6)
  7.8% CHEGA (-0.8 )
  5.8% CDU (-0.3)
  4.9% PAN (-1.0)
  3.9% CDS (+0.3)
  2.4% IL (+0.1)
  0.7% Livre (+0.5)
  0.7% Others (-1.1)
  3.2% Blank/Invalid (-0.4)

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 5)

3.8 António Costa (+0.4)
3.4 Rui Rio (+0.4)
3.1 Catarina Martins (+0.1)
2.9 Jerónimo de Sousa (nc)
2.7 André Silva (-0.2)
2.7 Francisco Rodrigues dos Santos (-0.1)
2.5 João Cotrim Figueiredo (nc)
2.2 André Ventura (-0.2)
1.8 Joacine Katar Moreira (-0.1)

Poll conducted between 9 and 14 April 2020. Polled 623 voters. MoE of 3.9%.

[Mike88]

25 April ceremony in Parliament: Only 65 MPs, out of 230, will be present.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1252306058804166660

April 25. Parties reduce the number of deputies present at the formal session:

Parliament has confirmed that the 25 April ceremony will go ahead as schedule, but with just 28% of MPs present and a few invitees. This decision is creating a lot of controversy with many pundits criticizing the ceremony for going ahead when the country is in lockdown and in State of Emergency. The Speaker, Ferro Rodrigues, is defending the decision to hold the ceremony but he's still being very criticized. There are two petitions about this ceremony: one, against the ceremony, has more than 100,000 signatures, while the other, in favour, has almost 30,000 signatures.

Just 65 MPs will be present, with the PSD sending 27, the number could still be lowered, the PS 22, BE 6, PCP 4, CDS, PAN, IL, PEV, CHEGA 1 each and Joacine Katar Moreira will also attend. Former Presidents of the Republic will also be present like Ramalho Eanes, while Jorge Sampaio will not be present. Cavaco Silva hasn't announced his intentions.

[Mike88]

Political update:

PM António Costa meet today with business leaders to set a timetable to open shops, restaurants and bars in May. Business leaders and Costa discussed the way to "reopen" the economy and discussed the pros and cons of Czech, Austrian and German models, hinting that the Portuguese model will be similar with these 3 countries. The opening of shops, hairdressers, restaurants and bars is expected after May 4th, when the current State of Emergency ends, and the PM, announced after the meeting that a cabinet meeting on April 30th will set the final timetable and businesses that will reopen. Costa also said that all businesses will not open at once but by a 15 day period: some will open of May 4th, others on May 18th and finally on June 1st.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1253666956634394624

Shops start to open in a staggered way from May 4th. Government looks at European models:

Costa also announced that during the Labour day holiday weekend, travel between and to different municipalities will be forbidden like what happened during Easter. He also met with the Islamic community leader in Portugal, and thanked the support and help they gave to authorities to control the pandemic in the country and in the community.

Also, Santana Lopes, Alliance leader, will take part in a PSD virtual debate to discuss the Covid-19 pandemic:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1253376942700707841

Parties and movements: PSD Lisbon invites Santana Lopes to a conference on the covid-19 crisis

It is the first time since Santana Lopes bitter departure from the PSD, that he accepts an invitation from his former party. His party catastrophic results in the 2019 elections almost shunned him from the spotlight, and the media is labeling this Santana move as "his return to the PSD... in a virtual way". Nonetheless, Santana Lopes has talked of leaving the leadership of his own a party and said he will not be a candidate for the 2021 elections, Presidential and Local.

[Mike88]

Ferro Rodrigues, Speaker of Parliament, continues surrounded in controversy because of his remarks:

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1252837800405200905

Ferro Rodrigues and the 25th of April: "Petitions on the internet don't tell me anything"

An interview to TSF radio by the Speaker of Parliament, Ferro Rodrigues, is creating some controversy and even his own party is quite upset. In the interview, Ferro Rodrigues, said that Petitions from the internet don't count as they need real signatures, and for him, are meaningless. When he was asked if MPs will be forced to wear masks in the ceremony, he said no and accused many people of being "masked" as "Aprilists" during the last few years but that now they've shown their true face.

The interview didn't end well according to pundits and even his own party is upset. Carlos César, PS president, said that Ferro Rodrigues made a mistake by creating an unnecessary controversy because of the 25 April ceremony.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll on the 2021 Presidential election:

Vote share %:

70.7% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (PSD)
  8.4% Ana Gomes (Ind/PS)
  7.2% Marisa Matias (BE)
  5.5% André Ventura (CHEGA)
  5.2% Arménio Carlos (CDU)
  2.0% André Silva (PAN)
  1.0% João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)

Poll conducted between 20 and 23 April 2020. Polled 1,048 voters. MoE of 3.03%

Note: Of the candidates listed in the poll, only André Ventura has officially announced his candidacy. The rest are all potential candidates.

[Mike88]

April 25 ceremony in Parliament: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says that not evoking the 25 April would be a bad sign to the country.

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1254016069804584960

It would be a civic absurdity "to stop invoking April 25, defends Marcelo.

The ceremony evoking the 46 anniversary of the 25 April revolution that ended the almost half century Estado Novo dictatorship was held this morning in Parliament. All parties and the President of the Republic made brief speeches as the ceremony was cut short and with very few attendees due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

A quick summary of the speeches:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa:

The Portuguese would not understand disagreement with Parliament. These times imposes unity on us;
Isn't this an exceptional time and in exceptional times, shouldn't ritualistic and customary evocations be dispensed with? No. It is precisely in exceptional situations that customs and rituals are imposed. June 10th is essential and will be invoked, as will December 1st and October 5th. April 25 is essential and had to be mentioned. It is in times of suffering that it is most important to evoke the motherland.

Ana Catarina Mendes (PS)

That morning, the captains of April filled the streets of Portugal with hope and gave my generation the opportunity to grow in freedom;
Celebrating freedom is working for democracy and we must not withdraw from any of the necessary dimensions of that work. And we do it on behalf of and by the Portuguese who elected and elected us, they trusted in our dedication to keeping alive the flame of freedom, the Constitution and the Republic.

Rui Rio (PSD)

For the first time, Portugal celebrates April 25 with conditional freedom;
More important than planning the presence of government officials in newspapers and on television to advertise, at all times, what they did and what they did not do, is to plan the country's response to a possible second round of Covid-19;
The PS and the parliamentary majority parties that support the Government have guaranteed that, with them, there will not be any kind of austerity, (...) it is a news that certainly pleases everyone, but such optimism cannot prevent us from preparing for the worst scenario, because, as the people teach us, 'prevention is better than cure'

.

Moisés Ferreira  (BE)

This is an April 25th unlike any other. Different in the way, but even more important in the meaning;
The 25th of April was neither suspended nor postponed and that there are nights that give way to whole and clean days.

Jerónimo de Sousa (CDU)

The April revolution is the heritage of the people and the future. Today we celebrate here with confidence that the best of your path is yet to come;
We need to realize April thinking about May, who works, who is in hospitals, factories and fields every day, to ensure that the country does not stop.

Telmo Correia (CDS)

In democracy, there are no indispensable dates and other indispensable dates, as imposed by the majority;
Collective freedom is defended by all those who, in the first line, are saving lives, but also by all those who, respecting what political power has determined, are confined, abdicating their individual freedom. So this is a bad example.

Inês Sousa Real (PAN)

In this House we must not forget that democracy is for everyone and for everyone. There are no owners of democracy;
In Democracy, ceremonies and other symbologies will serve little or nothing, showing themselves to be unaware of people's aspirations and concerns, much less of the consequences of the current health, economic, social and environmental crisis, dictated by a silent and unknown disease.

André Ventura (CHEGA)

What's worth a clove to the chest if we have more and more taxes, many of them to pay to many minorities that we don't deserve and that we pay. April poor people have to be mentioned because they are also the reason we pay so many taxes;
Another April 25th is needed, we want others, we want another democracy, we want the IV Portuguese Republic.

João Cotrim Figueiredo (IL)

I will read you a letter I wrote to my son, celebrating his birthday today, a happy occasion: (...) You will choose your own way of fighting. But whatever it is, my son, do it with the courage you have already shown. Fight for yourself, for young people like you, for those who will be like you, for those who were like you and also for those who do not think the same as you. This is what April 25th was for. To free you from a dictatorship, yes, but above all, to free you from everything and everyone who won't let you look for what you freely desire

[VPH]

André Ventura's rhetoric around the 25 de Abril is a little worrisome imo.

[Mike88]

André Ventura's rhetoric around the 25 de Abril is a little worrisome imo.

Well, it's not the first time he talks of another "25 April" and of a IV Republic, whatever that means. And  Ventura's words are not always aligned with his actions. For example, he today went on against the III Republic, cloves in the chest and all of that, but while he was a PSD councillor in Loures city, he celebrated the 25 April like every politician does:

https://twitter.com/inesmorsantos/status/1252203467537612800

[CumbrianLefty]

André Ventura's rhetoric around the 25 de Abril is a little worrisome imo.

Right wing loon makes loony right wing comments shocker.

[Mike88]

2020 Azores regional elections: President of the region, Vasco Cordeiro, doesn't foresee a postponement of the elections if the region isn't in lockdown or in State of Emergency by October.

In an interview to RTP/Azores regarding the handling of the regional government with the Covid-19 pandemic, Vasco Cordeiro (PS) said he doesn't foresee a postponement of the regional elections, schedule for mid October, if there's no lockdown or state of emergency by then. However, the decision to call the election rests in the President of the Republic.

[Mike88]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announces that the State of Emergency will end Saturday at midnight:

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1255165889709817857

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and PM António Costa met today with specialists to be updated of the situation of the virus in Portugal. Although many specialists are warning that Portugal's R(t) is still high, around 1.0 and that is still early to lift the lockdown, the President announced that the State of Emergency will end on Saturday, May 2nd, at midnight. However, what happens next will only be decided this Thursday. And there is already some controversy on some possible measures. The media is reporting, and the government has confirmed it, that a State of Calamity could be decided, the state bellow the Emergency one. However, many constitutionalists are warning that the government could be violating the Constitution by decreeing this, as the State of Calamity was design for local issues, not national ones and that some measures like border control or social distancing could not work in a State of Calamity. Costa has dismissed these claims, saying that a decision is still not taken and that he's also a jurist and that they always make up new problems.

Costa also met during today with sport associations to find a way to end sport season activities in Portugal.

[Mike88]

António Costa announces the dates of the "reopening" of the country during May/June:

https://twitter.com/noticiaaominuto/status/1255901050852294659

The PM is announcing, right now, the dates and the ways the reopening the country will happen during May. The PM said that the lockdown between mid-March and April worked as there was no exponential growth of the virus in Portugal, and now there is a controlled growth. However, the PM will decree the State of Calamity in order to manage the "reopening" and ease the effects of the reopening. A series of businesses, sports and religious events can occur in May:

- Telework is still advised;
- Events with more than 10 people are forbidden;
- Funerals can have full families now;
- Public transports will have 2/3 capacity limit and use of masks is mandatory;
- Public services, Finances and others, will only open by appointment;
- Shops with minus 200m2 will open on May 4;
- Hairdressers, book shops, car shops will also open on May 4, some only by appointment;
- Restaurants and bars will open on May 18 and can have 50% capacity and stay open until 11pm;
- Shopping malls will open on June 1;
- Schools will open on May 18, with the use of masks being mandatory;
- Kindergardens open on June 1;
- Libraries will open on May 4, Museums and palaces on May 18 and cinemas and theatres on June 1;
- Sport activities on the outside will be allowed by May 4, with no use of locker rooms;
- The national football league and the Cup of Portugal will resume by 30 May;

Costa added that the virus is still around us and the everyone should use masks while in the outside.

[Mike88]

Controversies surging as there are issues about State funds to businesses and TAP airlines crisis is also in the headlines:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1255652420690087936

Layoff payment failures. Siza Vieira feels that he "defrauded expectations" and blames the Social Security "machine".

https://twitter.com/revistaSABADO/status/1255969019359891457

Portugal - Costa stops Pedro Nuno Santos about TAP

In the last few days some reports are saying that Social Security payments to workers in lay-off, or short-work program, are very late and that bureaucracy is blocking many businesses in receiving funds. Almost 100,000 businesses have requested these payments, covering 1,2 million workers, and some say that Social Security is refusing their claims, and many accuse Social Security of "collapsing" with the amount of requests. The Economy Minister, Pedro Siza Vieira, has apologized for the situation, saying that he defrauded the expectations of many businesses and says that Social Security is unable to attend all requests.

TAP airlines is also in a dire situation. The company needs almost 1 billion dollars to survive and there's a very bad mood between the government and the airline' board. Transport minister, Pedro Nuno Santos, said in a Parliamentary committee that if the State gives money to TAP, then the State has to have a bigger share of the company, adding "if it is the people paying, it must be the people ruling". However, on an interview to RTP1, Costa toned down the remarks of his minister saying that no one knows what will happen, adding that TAP's problem is a global airline problem.

[Mike88]

Donald Trump called Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, today, to congratulate Portugal's handling of the pandemic and to offer help if necessary:

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1256227044670820352

The press release sent by the Presidency of the Republic:

The two Presidents shared the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic and the way in which the disease has been dealt with and its spread in each of the two countries, with particular reference to the participation of a Portuguese company in scientific tests in the United States of America, for the production of a specific medicine. The President of the Republic underlined the importance of international cooperation and the multilateral framework of international organizations to face common challenges, including the priority in fighting the pandemic and the importance of lessons learned. The American President praised the Portuguese performance in this pandemic outbreak and offered any help that would be considered useful and necessary, which the Portuguese President thanked. The two Presidents wished the greatest successes of the two friendly peoples in overcoming the present situation

[CumbrianLefty]

With friends like these, eh?

[Mike88]

With friends like these, eh?

I don't know why he even called. Maybe he called a lot of other countries also. And he should have called the Prime Minister as he is the "real" reason Portugal is performing quite well during this crisis. Marcelo was a player, but in a much lesser extent and he doesn't have any real powers and everything he decides has to be negotiated with the Prime Minister.

Or, as Portugal doesn't have a Trump hotel, he's looking for something to invest in the future.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio on taxes and on the pardoning of prison sentences:

Q1: Do you agree with the pardoning of prison sentences due to the Covid-19?

54% No
26% Yes
17% Neither yes or no
  3% Undecided

Q2: Do you agree with the rise of these taxes:

Rise in taxes on banks? 53% Yes; 33% No; 10% Neither yes or no; 4% Undecided

Rise in Corporate taxes? 61% No; 20% Yes; 16% Neither yes or no; 3% Undecided

End on support for public transports passes? 72% No; 19% Yes; 6% Neither yes or no; 3% Undecided

Rise in Income taxes (IRS)? 70% No; 15% Yes; 13% Neither yes or no; 2% Undecided

Rise in Fuel taxes? 74% No; 14% Yes; 10% Neither yes or no; 2% Undecided

Rise in VAT? 73% No; 12% Yes; 12% Neither yes or no; 3% Undecided

Poll conducted between 15 and 26 April 2020. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

Pitagórica poll for JN newspaper/TSF radio:

Vote share %:

41.9% PS (+0.2)
23.1% PSD (-2.1)
  8.1% BE (-0.5)
  7.3% CHEGA (-0.8 )
  5.6% CDU (+0.2)
  2.6% PAN (-0.5)
  2.6% CDS (-0.3)
  2.6% IL (+0.6)
  6.2% Others/Invalid (+3.1)

Poll conducted between 15 and 26 April 2020. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

More data from the Pitagórica poll:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1257291957463908356

Opposition parties:

31% Approve (+14)
21% Disapprove (-14)
48% Average (nc)

President of the Republic:

87% Approve (+2)
13% Disapprove (-2)

[Mike88]

The fallout of the Labour day union demonstration in Lisbon continues:

The CGTP, union close to the PCP, demonstration on Labour day, last Friday, continues to create controversy. Pundits are criticizing heavily the union and PCP for giving a bad example for the country and that the demonstration shouldn't happen. The situation became worse as it was revealed that many of the people in the demonstration weren't from Lisbon city, in the weekend where the government decreed that during the Labour day bank holiday, travels between municipalities were forbidden. This created controversy, although it was discussed with the Government. Things got more tense, when the Health minister said, in a TV interview, that religious celebrations in Fátima sanctuary could happen, like in the CGTP rally. These declarations caught the Catholic Church by surprise and created some discomfort between the Church and the government. The Church ultimately decided to not have people in the Fátima celebrations.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1257379601732587521

Blame game on the May 1st: Marcelo distances himself, Government points to the President and DGS

But, the finger pointing has began. Both the President and the Government talked with CGTP on the way the rally would happen, but the President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has become critical of the CGTP as he thought the rally would be "more restrictive". The Government is also distancing from the decision to hold the rally and is blaming the Health authorities, adding that the government was unaware of number of people that would attend the rally.

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1257363315401113608

"The Church has more judgment than CGTP", says Rui Rio.

The opposition is using this to criticize the government. PSD leader, Rui Rio, which last weekend hammered the CGTP for holding a rally when the country was still in a State of Emergency, said today that the Catholic Church has a better judgment than the union, adding that he was shocked to see several buses in the rally and that the union and the Government did a bad service to workers.

[Mike88]

Controversy surrounding André Ventura's remarks that there should be a separate confinement plan for Gypsies:

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1257260100785524741

Politics - André Ventura wants a specific containment plan for the Roma community

The controversy erupted early this week, when André Ventura, CHEGA leader, in an interview to I newspaper, said that the Roma/Gypsy community should a have a separate and specific confinement plan as that community isn't respecting the rules, according to him. He also added that he will ask the support of PSD, CDS and IL to this proposal.

https://twitter.com/ATelevisao/status/1257952150476541952

Ricardo Quaresma attacks André Ventura to defend the Roma community

But, the controversy escalated yesterday when Ricardo Quaresma, a football player in Portugal's national team and from the Roma community, lashed out against André Ventura saying it's "sad that someone wants to be something in life by putting people against people". He added that "Ventura's racist populism is only in the name of power" and that he's proud to be from the Roma community and proud to be a Portuguese.

Ventura reacted to Ricardo Quaresma's statement saying that a football player in the national team shouldn't be involved in politics, and that the football authorities should bar players to make these statements.

[Mike88]

German newspaper, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, says that Mário Centeno will leave the Eurogroup in July.

https://twitter.com/ECO_PT/status/1258695661966561280

Mário Centeno leaves Eurogroup, says German newspaper.

Mário Centeno will be leaving the Eurogroup. The Portuguese finance minister should not run for a second term as president of the body that brings together finance ministers from countries in the Eurozone, reveals the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Centeno has been president of the Eurogroup since January 2018, having succeeded Dutchman Jeroen Dijsselbloem. The current term ends on 13 July this year and the leading German newspaper cites information from behind the scenes of the Eurogroup to indicate that Centeno will not be willing to run for a second term.

Without identifying the sources, the news reports that Mário Centeno is “tired due to the amount of work”, in a context in which he accumulates that role with that of Portugal's Minister of Finance and does not have a large team in Brussels or Lisbon .

However, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung goes even further and guarantees that several members of the Eurogroup are unhappy with Mário Centeno's management. The newspaper even says that Centeno was "ill prepared" for the meetings and "unable to lead the discussions". In addition to the discontent, the video conference of April 8, where the ministers discussed a package of support because of the pandemic - the meeting took 16 hours and some participants considered it "a nightmare", the newspaper guarantees.

(...)

It was a foregone conclusion, a few months ago, that Centeno would leave the Eurogroup chairmanship but since the Covid-19 pandemic erupted, this talk faded as it was thought that he would stay on. If he leaves the Eurogroup, will he also leave the post of Finance minister in Portugal, like it was also reported a few months ago? We'll see.