🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Flyersfan232]

is the ppm committed to restoring the monarchy and how many monarchists are they in others parties if any?

[Mike88]

is the ppm committed to restoring the monarchy and how many monarchists are they in others parties if any?

They support the idea of a monarchy but they don't have any commitment in restoring the monarch because the Constitution basically forbids any change of the form of government. Now, PPM is also a party aligned with agrarianism, the environment and a strong supporter for more autonomy to local governments. Since 1979, they have aligned themselves with PSD and/or CDS and have forged a series of coalitions on the national and local level which helps them elect several municipal members across the country. Currently they are in power in the Azores, in a coalition with PSD/CDS, and one of their MPs in the popular member from the tiny island of Corvo.

There are monarchists in all parties, left to right. There are BE members who join monarchist causes, there are PCP events in which the legitimate heir of the Portuguese throne, D. Duarte Pio, is invited to speak, there are some PS members who would support a referendum on the monarchy and PSD/CDS have a lot of members affiliated with the monarchist cause. However, this groups are relatively small and have little impact as the "return of the monarchy" isn't really an issue and basically no one cares about.

Regarding the overall support for a possible, but impossible, return of the monarch, there are few polls but two polls in 2010 had different questions: a Marktest poll showed that 37% think Portugal would be worse with the Monarchy, while almost 34% saying it would be the same or better; an UCP-CESOP poll, also from 2010, had support for the monarchy at just 11%.

[Mike88]

CHEGA members, including the mayoral candidate, involved in an Homophobic attack in Viseu city:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1418589061833314305

Human rights: Homophobic insults end in physical aggression between Chega members and business worker in Viseu

It was a complicated night, yesterday, in Viseu city. A group of CHEGA members insulted with homophobic slurs and physically attacked a man that worked in a coffee shop bellow the CHEGA headquarters in the same city. According to witnesses, the group started to insult the man which ended in a fight between both sides. The man, a coffee shop worker that works in the shop bellow the party's headquarters, says the insults have been constant even though he's straight and married. He accuses the CHEGA candidate for mayor of Viseu, Pedro Calheiros, of watching and even grabbing him, while other witness say Mr Calheiros tried to end the scene. The police arrived at the scene and identified the people involved in the fight and they are now investigating the situation. CHEGA party has already reacted to this situation by saying they have "full trust in their candidates" and that they are now waiting for the police investigation to "make a stance", adding that they reject acts of violence in any circumstances.

[Flyersfan232]

is the ppm committed to restoring the monarchy and how many monarchists are they in others parties if any?

They support the idea of a monarchy but they don't have any commitment in restoring the monarch because the Constitution basically forbids any change of the form of government. Now, PPM is also a party aligned with agrarianism, the environment and a strong supporter for more autonomy to local governments. Since 1979, they have aligned themselves with PSD and/or CDS and have forged a series of coalitions on the national and local level which helps them elect several municipal members across the country. Currently they are in power in the Azores, in a coalition with PSD/CDS, and one of their MPs in the popular member from the tiny island of Corvo.

There are monarchists in all parties, left to right. There are BE members who join monarchist causes, there are PCP events in which the legitimate heir of the Portuguese throne, D. Duarte Pio, is invited to speak, there are some PS members who would support a referendum on the monarchy and PSD/CDS have a lot of members affiliated with the monarchist cause. However, this groups are relatively small and have little impact as the "return of the monarchy" isn't really an issue and basically no one cares about.

Regarding the overall support for a possible, but impossible, return of the monarch, there are few polls but two polls in 2010 had different questions: a Marktest poll showed that 37% think Portugal would be worse with the Monarchy, while almost 34% saying it would be the same or better; an UCP-CESOP poll, also from 2010, had support for the monarchy at just 11%.

communist monarchists?

[crals]

I know one member of PPM. As far as I'm aware he doesn't care about the monarchy in the slightest.

[Mike88]

communist monarchists?

Yep, it seems that there are a few of them.

I know one member of PPM. As far as I'm aware he doesn't care about the monarchy in the slightest.

I actually don't know any PPM member, but yeah, PPM is much more an environmental prone party due to Gonçalo Ribeiro Telles. The split between him and PPM, led to the formation of MPT - Earth Party. PPM members may like the idea of monarchy but that's a non issue in Portugal.

[Mike88]

With the elections just 2 months away, the floodgates of hilarious campaign posters have opened:

CHEGA can fly....

BE has a very strong candidate in this parish...

Vote for Lara's husband. Whoever she may be:

If someone is available, the PSD is looking for a candidate in this parish (Jason Statham was unavailable) xD xD

From the Facebook account of "Tesourinhos das Autárquicas 2021" (Treasures of the 2021 Local Elections) https://www.facebook.com/escrutinarasautarquicas2013/

Also, PSD-Seixal is really giving it all against "Socialism", "Maoism", "Communism", you name it:
https://twitter.com/danieldiasjorge/status/1418530830641676288
1st poster:

After 45 years of eating rice, will you vote for the same old ones?

2nd poster:

It's time for democrats to give a mustache to the Communists.

[Mike88]

2021 local elections: Costa enters in the campaign trail with the recovery plan as an election trump card:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1418905246986874885

Costa hits the road to fire up local candidates. With a trump card: European money

Party leaders have been hitting the campaign trail hard in the last few days, from left to right. This weekend, PM Costa is hitting the road with 7 campaign stops across the country to fire up PS local candidates. The PM is using as his trump card the money that the European recovery plan will give to Portugal. Costa is pressing the message that in the next seven years, Portugal will receive double the money it received since 1986 and that this is a historic opportunity. Costa is promissing a lot of new infrastructures like dams, new roads and money to attract businesses to create a lot of jobs in rural parts of the country.

However, the plan it self isn't consensual. The rightwing opposition criticizes the plan as it, according to them, is to focused on government spending and has very little for businesses. President Marcelo has also been, in private, very critical of the plan labeling it as "the plan that was possible" and that his sceptic about the government's path that has no reforms and forecasts an anemic growth for Portugal.

[Mike88]

ICS/ISCTE poll for Lisbon city - PS incumbent; 510,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with 2017)

42% PS (nc)
31% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/Alliance (-1)
  8% BE (+1)
  6% CDU (-3)
  4% CHEGA (new)
  3% PAN (nc)
  2% IL (new)
  4% Others/Invalid (-3)

Poll conducted between 3 and 18 July 2021. Polled 803 voters in Lisbon city. MoE of 3.50%.

Interesting crosstabs of this poll for the Lisbon election:
https://twitter.com/PCMagalhaes/status/1419060021661421568
- No "gender gap" currently;
- Big "age gap", younger voters voting PSD or basically tied between PS-PSD, older voters massively voting PS;
- Voters with no High school degree vote by a big margin in the PS, while voters with a college degree clearly prefer the PSD. Voters with a High school degree basically split between both sides;
- Voters with good living conditions vote easily in the PSD and those who can manage well are divided. Those who find it hard to make ends meet vote massively in the PS;

[Mike88]

Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho, the highly controversial April captain, died at the age of 84:

https://twitter.com/TSFRadio/status/1419228819769024513

The captain of Abril Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho has died

Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho died this morning at the age of 84. He had been hospitalized with a heart problem. Mr Otelo was a very controversial figure in Portugal. As the mastermind behind the 25 April 1974 revolution, he was crucial for the success of the revolution but divisions within the army movement made Otelo even more radical. During this time he was leader of COPCON, an entity which is accused of arresting and torturing moderate people during the revolution. After the 25 November 1975 coup, Otelo was removed from all posts and was a candidate for the 1976 Presidential election where he polled second with 16% of the votes. He ran again in 1980, but only got 1.5% of the votes.

During the 80's he was part of the far-left terrorist organisation, FP-25, which murdered 17 people and bombed several buildings like banks and offices. He was arrested in 1984 and lost all his military credentials. He was pardoned in 1996.

[Velasco]

Rest in peace Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho  the captain of April

[Mike88]

Rest in peace Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho  the captain of April

He was a very complex person and the reactions to his death were all very careful and weighted. Like I said in the post, he was very controversial, and in my view, he personifies the very best and the very worst of the revolution: the best because he planned the revolution and without his leadership and intervention it would probably failed, but at the same time his role after the revolution showed his naivety and lack of political ideology that led him to rather dark paths.

[Velasco]

Rest in peace Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho  the captain of April

He was a very complex person and the reactions to his death were all very careful and weighted. Like I said in the post, he was very controversial, and in my view, he personifies the very best and the very worst of the revolution: the best because he planned the revolution and without his leadership and intervention it would probably failed, but at the same time his role after the revolution showed his naivety and lack of political ideology that led him to rather dark paths.

To be honest, my knowkedge of his figure is superficial. But I got he was key in the success of the revolution, as well a complex and controversial person. Revolutionaires are not neccessarily good politicians after the revolution succeeds, but probably they are neccessary at these critical moments of regime change

[Mike88]

Novo Banco parliamentary committee final report: PS votes against their own report after the opposition forced changes in the draft report.

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1420047993303183361

Novo Banco: Final report of the inquiry commission approved with the against vote of the PS

The final chapter of the controversial Novo Banco parliamentary committee has become very political. The committee proved, after a lot of controversial and high profile hearings, that the former BES, now Novo Banco, made a series of loans that ruined the bank and that led to its demise in 2014. How the bank was "saved" and how it was sold afterwards was also analysed. But, the final report has now created a feud between the PS and the rest of the opposition, left to right. The initial report, written by a PS MP, removed any responsibility of the current PS government regarding the 2017 sale of the bank to an American fund, saying the government couldn't have done more. Opposition parties accused the PS of trying to "whitewash" their responsibilities in the sale of the bank. The opposition announced it would reject the report if no changes were made and forced several changes that would blame the current PS and former PSD government in the bank's fate. The opposition changes were all passed and only the PS voted against them. The Socialists are furious and accuse the Opposition of a "political attack" and they blame the PSD and BE for making up "false conclusions". These parties say the report is now more balanced and distributes the blame between both the major parties.

[Mike88]

2021 Local elections update:

- As the deadline to submit candidacies nears, the deadline is next Monday, problems are surging in some areas. In the PSD, it was announced that the party will not present a candidacy on Mortágua, Viseu district, after the incumbent PSD mayor refused to run again. Because the announcement was too late, the party failed to find a candidate in time to run. The national PSD is trying to find a solution for Mortágua;

- In the PS, there's also problems in Maia city. The PS candidate, Francisco Vieira Carvalho, is still dividing the local party and it was announced that the Courts have rejected the PS-JPP coalition for Maia on the grounds that the coalition papers have several errors and lack information. The deadline to submit coalitions was 23 July, but the PS will have time to fix the errors;

- CHEGA is seeing a lot of their candidates involved in controversies. In the last few days, local media has been revealing the past of some CHEGA candidates, for example, in Vendas Novas, Évora, the CHEGA candidate has a business that sells anti-witchcraft products, and the candidate of Reguengos de Monsaraz is accused of not paying debts he owes. There seems to be also problems in several CHEGA candidacies in Leiria with some dropping out;

- An independent candidate in a Braga parish is back with the same tactic he used in 2017, giving Chorizos, a pork sausage, to voters. João Seco Magalhães made headlines in 2017, for giving voters, during the campaign, chorizos. He got 27% of the votes and was just 300 votes behind the PSD in that parish. Now, he's using the same tactic and is running again for the same parish. Lets see if it will work this time ;

More updates when available.

[Mike88]

DA accuses Ventura of crime of disobedience for holding a rally with 170 people during the State of Emergency in January and puts him under identity control:

https://twitter.com/cmjornal/status/1422601581334253568

DA accuses Ventura of disobedience for having dinner with 170 people and puts him with a term of identity and residence

The DA office has accused André Ventura, CHEGA leader, other CHEGA party members and the owners of a restaurant of crimes of disobedience by violating the State of Emergency rules because of the controversial rally of 170 people during the January Presidential election in Braga. The DA says that the owners, under the State of Emergency rules at the time, could not hold the rally and they refute Ventura's defence that campaign activities where allowed by saying that the State of Emergency only allowed campaign events in space with ventilation, like arenas and other spacious buildings, and not a restaurant with no ventilation. The DA has put Ventura and the other formally accused under identity control in which they have to report to the police where they are or where they're going. The case will now go to trial.

Ventura has already reacted by saying that the DA accusation looks like "political persecution" and that this a sad day for justice in Portugal.

[Mike88]

Another one from CHEGA: Candidate for Caminha village out of the race because he delivered his candidacy papers in the wrong place.

https://twitter.com/ominhopt/status/1422903351516311563

CHEGA out of the Caminha race because their candidate submitted the lists in the wrong place

The CHEGA candidate for Caminha, a village in the border with Spain, is out of the race because he submitted his party's lists in the wrong place. According to the CHEGA-Viana do Castelo district party, Mr. Carlos Gomes Pinto, the candidate, submitted the candidacy in Caminha City Hall and was convinced everything was right as the city hall employee who attended him, confirmed the reception of the lists, said everything was in order and then Mr Pinto left. CHEGA says it's weird that the City Hall didn't inform the candidate he was in the wrong place nor did they notified him about the mistake. Candidate lists have to be submitted in the local Courts.

One thing is certain: the CHEGA candidate is an idiot, but it's unclear if the city hall employee is also an idiot or if he/she screwed with the CHEGA candidate.

[Mike88]

Don't know how it's in other countries, but in Portugal, party lists aren't published in an official website or released by parties, but printed in tons of papers and fixed on the facade of the courts:

An example:
https://twitter.com/JGomes_PT/status/1423557669479231495

Very prehistoric. But, it is what it is.

[CumbrianLefty]

Still happens a lot in this country (usually with town halls/civic centres rather than courts) Though yes most people will look online for such things nowadays.

[Mike88]

Still happens a lot in this country (usually with town halls/civic centres rather than courts) Though yes most people will look online for such things nowadays.

Interesting. The debate here is that the process to file a candidacy is very bureaucratic and there's no digital way to send it, it has to be by hand and on paper. How is the filling of candidacies in the UK? Also by hand and paper?

Also, I'm actually trying to compile a map with the candidacies by each of the main party/coalition in this election. I'm still half way as there's not a lot of info yet. The electoral commission normally publishes the ballot distribution by municipality. We'll see.

[Mike88]

André Ventura is infected with Covid-19. He hasn't received a vaccine yet.

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1424400038181097472

Coronavirus: André Ventura infected with covid-19. CHEGA leader is not vaccinated

André Ventura, CHEGA's leader, is infected with Covid-19 after two rapid tests he did came out positive. He had contact with an infected person on Friday, during a CHEGA rally in Porto city. He is now in isolation and will conduct a PCR test tomorrow. He also confirmed reports that he was not vaccinated yet, even though he can have a vaccine whenever he wants, as people with his age can receive a vaccine at any time.

[Mike88]

André Ventura is infected with Covid-19. He hasn't received a vaccine yet.

The media is reporting that the PCR test also come out positive and that Ventura has mild symptoms of Covid like cough and back pain. He will remain in isolation.

The media is also discussing the weird and contradictory explanations given by Ventura for not taking the vaccine, prompting the question if Ventura himself is anti-vaxx, something CHEGA tries to distance, even though many CHEGA supporters insult high profile CHEGA members who have taken the vaccine.

Update: Ok, CHEGA has gone full crazy QAnon style:

Posted on the Facebook page of CHEGA-Vila Real:

(...)
Now we have to give our strength and our prayers for him to come back well and even stronger. Many want him to die, but we are stronger and he will beat the disease and prove that she can't beat CHEGA. Our Lady of Fatima is with him and will not allow one of her chosen ones to succumb to a disease created in China to destroy CHEGA.

They say he hasn't had the vaccine. We cannot criticize him. Do you doubt that if André arrived at the vaccination center full of employees of the socialist government of António Costa they wouldn't try to inject him with poison as soon as they realized it was him? You can't be too careful and I recommend CHEGA activists not to identify themselves as such when they are going to get the vaccine. We annoy a lot of people and they will do anything to stop us. Be careful.
(...)

[Mike88]

Update: Ok, CHEGA has gone full crazy QAnon style:

Posted on the Facebook page of CHEGA-Vila Real:

(...)
Now we have to give our strength and our prayers for him to come back well and even stronger. Many want him to die, but we are stronger and he will beat the disease and prove that she can't beat CHEGA. Our Lady of Fatima is with him and will not allow one of her chosen ones to succumb to a disease created in China to destroy CHEGA.

They say he hasn't had the vaccine. We cannot criticize him. Do you doubt that if André arrived at the vaccination center full of employees of the socialist government of António Costa they wouldn't try to inject him with poison as soon as they realized it was him? You can't be too careful and I recommend CHEGA activists not to identify themselves as such when they are going to get the vaccine. We annoy a lot of people and they will do anything to stop us. Be careful.
(...)

Another update: CHEGA will file a complaint against the content of the Facebook page who posted that Ventura would be poisoned if vaccinated. The party says the account is false and has already sent complaints in the past because of this "fake" page. The party rejects the content of the post.

At the same time, Ventura is going to social media to say he has doubts about the efficiency of the vaccines and wants more info, like millions of people. What a trainwreck.

[Mike88]

2021 Local elections update:

- The PSD is trying to stop Santana Lopes independent candidacy in Figueira da Foz. The party has filed a request to the local Court to bar Santana Lopes from running. The party says the candidate is violating election law by having different names for his candidacy in his papers and that Santana doesn't have enough signatures. During last weekend it was also reported that Santana Lopes used the address of a local fishmonger as his Figueira residence in order to run for mayor. The Court has 24 hours to submit a ruling;

- There's an ongoing controversy as many mayors are being accused of using their personal social media accounts to publish their work as mayors. The mayor of Cascais, Carlos Carreiras, was forced by the CNE to remove from his personal account posts regarding his work as mayor. Mr Carreiras reacted by sending this order from CNE to the Courts. But mayors in other places are using Covid vaccination centers to promote their work as mayors with promotional videos, which is also controversial;

- More polling was also released from two big cities, Leiria and Matosinhos. One poll from Vila Franca de Xira (138,000 inhabitants) is expected this Thursday:

IPOM poll for Leiria city - PS incumbent, 129,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2017 election)

58.7% PS (+4.2)
19.3% PSD (-7.7)
10.0% CHEGA (new)
  4.0% CDU (+1.6)
  2.7% BE (nc)
  0.7% CDS (-4.3)
  4.7% Others/Invalid (-3.7)

Poll conducted between 9 and 12 July 2021. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.10%.

Intercampus poll for Matosinhos city - PS incumbent, 174,000 inhabitants:

Vote share %: (compared with the 2017 election)

42.8% PS (+6.5)
10.2% PSD (-1.7)
  7.0% António Parada (-8.2)
  6.5% BE (+1.9)
  5.8% CHEGA (new)
  4.3% CDU (-2.4)
  1.1% PAN (-2.1)
  1.1% CDS (new)
  0.7% Joaquim Jorge (new)
  0.0% Humberto Silva (new)
20.5% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 28 June and 20 July 2021. Polled 601 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

What the hell is this?

https://twitter.com/Alexandre_Poco/status/1425430587486228487

Today I start a campaign that will try the impossible: show that politicians are not all the same. If you too give everything for Oeiras, join us at http://adartudoporoeiras.pt

Giving everything for Oeiras. Alexandre Poço

Poster from the PSD candidate for Oeiras city. I don't know what's worse, the slogan, the pose, everything.xD  This year's election posters are setting a new level of cringe.