🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 2.0

[Walmart_shopper]

Euthanasia debate: Divisions on the PSD as the legalization is set to be approved tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1230252094856318977

Assisted death: Euthanasia has almost certain approval and causes controversy in the PSD

The euthanasia vote is to be held tomorrow and the approval is almost a certainty. The PS will vote overwhelmingly in favour, although some MPs, 11 at least, will abstain or vote against. In the PSD, there is divisions. The party is divided on the topic itself and on the question of the referendum. Although the majority of the caucus will vote against, PSD leader, Rui Rio will vote in favour. Plus, some PSD MPs are forging a petition to ask for a referendum, something Rui doesn't want and there are already some PSD MPs that have retracted their support for the petition.

The Catholic Church, medical associations and other movements are asking for a nationwide referendum on Euthanasia, and a petition, promoted by the church, has already 40,000 signatures, and the leaders of the petition believe that by the end of the month, they will have enough signatures, 60,000 minimum, to force a debate on a referendum in Parliament.

The petitioners can force a debate, but will there be enough votes to force euthanasia to a referendum?

[Mike88]

The petitioners can force a debate, but will there be enough votes to force euthanasia to a referendum?

There's almost zero chances of a referendum being held, because the PS is against it and if you add PS+BE, you have 127 votes, well above the 116 necessary for a referendum. PAN is also against a referendum. So, yeah, they can force a debate but the outcome is already written in the walls.

Now, the vote in Parliament was held this afternoon and all 5 bills to legalize euthanasia were approved:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1230562921614176256

Euthanasia approved in Parliament

PS bill: 127 in favour; 86 against; 10 abstentions

BE bill: 124 in favour; 85 against; 14 abstentions

PAN bill: 121 in favour; 86 against; 16 abstentions

PEV bill: 114 in favour; 86 against; 23 abstentions

IL bill: 114 in favour; 85 against; 24 abstentions

The 5 bills will now go to the Parliamentary committee of constitutional affairs to discuss and draft a final bill to be later approved by Parliament and sent to the President of the Republic. What Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will do is also a big question: Will he veto the bill and sent to the Constitutional Court? Some pundits believe Marcelo will veto the bill. We'll see.

Also during today, two new polls were unveiled that show the level of support of Euthanasia in the electorate:

Multidados poll:

Q1: Are in favour of the legalization of euthanasia?

73.4% Yes
26.6% No

Q2: Do you believe a referendum on this matter should be held?

80.8% Yes
19.2% No

ICS poll: (Poll conducted in the post-2019 election survey)

Q: Are in favour of the legalization of euthanasia?

43% Yes
28% No
29% Undecided

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %:

31.1% PS (-1.7)
23.8% PSD (-2.0)
13.2% BE (+1.3)
  6.9% CHEGA (+0.7)
  6.3% CDU (+0.1)
  5.4% PAN (-0.6)
  3.5% CDS (+1.6)
  2.9% IL (+0.6)
  0.8% Livre (-0.9)
  0.8% Others(-0.5)
  5.2% Blank/Invalid (+1.3)

Poll conducted between 11 and 17 February 2020. Polled 614 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Impasse in the selection of judges for the Constitutional Court could hurt the chances of Euthanasia passing in the court.

https://twitter.com/P_Politica/status/1231100353250242561

Constitutional Court: Tensions have never been greater between PS and BE

The election of two new judges for the Constitutional Court has turned into a big mess. The PS nominated two candidates: Vitalino Canas, former PS spokesperson during José Sócrates leadership, and Clemente Lima, former judge in the Superior Court of Justice. But, these nominations are being very badly received, particularly Vitalino Canas nomination. BE is furious because the PS didn't talk to them about possible candidates, and the PSD will not officially support neither of the candidates, meaning that the election of these two PS nominees could be in jeopardy.

This impasse in the Constitutional Court could also hurt the chances of Euthanasia passing in the Court, if it's sent to the Court. The current composition is 4 center-left judges, 6 center-right judges and 1 centrist, which makes the outcome of the Euthanasia bill widely in doubt.

[Mike88]

GfK/Metris poll on the Health Services in Portugal for Expresso/SIC TV:

Q1: What's the biggest issue facing the country right now?

34% Healthcare (+7)
16% Jobs/Wages (nc)
16% Corruption (+3)
  9% The Economy (-6)
  6% Education (+1)
19% Other issues (-5)

Q2: How do you rate the overall quality of healthcare services in Portugal? (in a scale between 0 and 10)

Overall: 6.1

Men: 6.1
Women: 6.1

North: 6.5
Center: 6.0
Lisbon: 6.2
Alentejo: 6.1
Algarve: 3.5

Q3: Regardless of its use, if you had a medical emergency, which service would you prefer?

71% Public hospital
16% Private hospital
11% Health center
  2% Private practice

Q4: Rate your confidence in the following institutions and agents (in a scale between 0 and 10)

7.3 Nurses
7.2 Doctors
6.9 Private hospitals
6.6 Health centers
6.5 Public hospitals

Q5: To solve the issue of waiting lists in the NHS, what should be the solution?

76% The State needs to invest more on the NHS
18% The State should partner more with the private sector
  6% Undecided

Poll conducted between 22 January and 5 February 2020. Polled 800 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

[Mike88]

Intercampus poll on the 2021 Presidential election for CMTV/CM newspaper:

Vote share %: (compared with the last poll)

58.5% Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (-10.0)
  9.3% André Ventura (+0.6)
  8.8% Ana Gomes (new)
  4.6% Marisa Matias (-2.7)
  2.6% Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.6)
  2.4% Cristina Ferreira (new)
  1.3% Carlos César (-0.3)
12.5% Others/Undecided (+1.9)

Poll conducted between 11 and 17 February 2020. Polled 614 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Note: Carlos César, Jerónimo de Sousa, Marisa Matias, Ana Gomes and Cristina Ferreira are hypothetical candidates for the moment.

[Mike88]

PS nominee for the Constitutional Court, Vitalino Canas, will likely be rejected as PSD will vote against him.

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1232010925064032262

PSD will reject Vitalino Canas in the Constitutional Court.

The PS nominee for the Constitutional Court, Vitalino Canas, will be, very likely, rejected by Parliament. The PSD is very uncomfortable with the name and Rio has decided to not support the name proposed by the PS. The vote for Constitutional judges needs to have a 2/3 majority, but Vitalino Canas only has the votes of the PS, and even here many MPs are quite unhappy with his nomination. BE, PCP and IL have also announced they will vote against him. The other PS nominee is in doubt, however.

[Mike88]

New Lisbon airport: Change of a current law that allows city halls to veto projects, is rejected by the PSD:
https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1232750560270585856

Montijo Airport. PSD reaffirms: "We're not available to change the law"

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1232697206790131713

Pedro Nuno Santos says that without a majority in Parliament, there will no airport in Montijo. "There's no drama"

The new Lisbon airport saga continues. This time, the government wants to change a law that allows city halls to veto projects. The proposed new Lisbon airport, is approved by the mayor of Montijo (PS) but rejected by the mayors of Seixal and Moita, both from PCP. This law is delaying the project, and the government only realized it now. The government tried to woo the PSD into their side, but Rui Rio has rejected the proposed change by the government. Even in the PS the idea isn't very popular, as deputy leader, Ana Catarina Mendes, is saying that laws should not be changed in the middle of the process. The government, by the voice of minister Pedro Nuno Santos, is now downplaying the case, after last week demanding responsibility from the PSD.

This is another episode in the long case of the new Lisbon airport. The proposed airport in Montijo, has strong opposition from engineers, environmentalists and politicians as the two main criticisms of the locations is that in 30 years it could be flooded by the Tagus river, and it's close to one of Portugal's most important bird reserve.

[Mike88]

Controversial CHEGA bill that proposes chemical castration for sexual offenders will not be voted in Parliament by decision of Speaker Ferro Rodrigues:

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1232979704610578432

Ferro Rodrigues decides that Chega's bill on chemical castration will not be discussed in plenary.

Speaker Ferro Rodrigues has decided to cancel the vote on a bill, proposed by CHEGA, that would allow chemical castration for sexual offenders. The Speaker made this decision after the Parliamentary Committee of Constitutional Affairs ruled that the bill was unconstitutional. But this decision isn't unanimous. BE, CDS and, to some extent, the PSD didn't saw with good eyes this decision by Ferro Rodrigues. PS, PCP and Joacine Katar Moreira voted in favour of the cancellation of the vote.

BE is against the cancellation of the vote as they say the committee doesn't rule on the Constitutionality of bills, and they add that skinping this vote and debate, some details of the policy will not be discussed and they should. The PSD, although they abstained in the vote, are also in line with BE on the criticism the the Committee doesn't have powers and that this could open the door to more "vetoes" on votes.

[crals]

Ferro Rodrigues is only helping Chega with these antics.

[Mike88]

Ferro Rodrigues is only helping Chega with these antics.

It's a bad decision as it creates a precedent for future bad decisions. If some party, in the future, proposes a bill that there's doubt of its constitutionality and the Speaker in charge is from the opposite political colour, the Speaker can argue that it cannot be voted, as there is a precedent. The CHEGA bill is a mess, but it should be discussed and all of its details should have been exposed in the debate.

Also, today, the PS nominees for the Constitutional Court were rejected by Parliament, and even some PS MPs voted against:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1233414214968119297

Everything rejected. Parliament rejects Vitalino Canas for the TC and Correia de Campos for the CES:

The vote for the PS nominees for the Constitutional Court resulted in the rejection of all the nominees, as expected. The PS nominees had just 93 votes in favour and 126 blank/invalid. The nominees needed 2/3 of the MPs to be elected. The vote was by secret ballot, but the outcome as expected. However, looking at the number it seems that even some PS MPs voted against the nominees proposed by their party.

The PS is quite upset with the result, accusing Parliament of blocking the normal function of institutions and democracy and they thought that there was a minimal consensus in the names. The PS, however, hasn't confirmed if they will propose the same names again.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for JE newspaper:

Vote share %:

35.1% PS
26.1% PSD
  7.7% BE
  5.4% CDU
  4.3% CHEGA
  4.1% PAN
  2.5% IL
  2.1% CDS
  0.7% Livre
  6.7% Others/Invalid
  5.3% Undecided

Popularity ratings: (in a scale between 0 and 20)

10.4 António Costa (-0.4)
  9.7 Jerónimo de Sousa (-0.9)
  9.4 Catarina Martins (-1.0)
  9.3 Rui Rio (+0.1)
  8.1 André Ventura (-1.3)
  7.9 João Cotrim Figueiredo (-0.3)
  7.5 André Silva (-2.0)
  3.5 Joacine Katar Moreira (-1.5)

Poll conducted between 14 and 18 February 2020.

[Mike88]

Interesting article done by pollster Pedro Magalhães, which leads the team behind the Expresso/SIC polls, on the CHEGA electorate: in the latest SIC/Expresso poll:

Who wants to vote for CHEGA?

Who votes for the radical right? In the rest of Europe, a kind of "robot portrait" of its voters was formed over time. CHEGAS's is not the same.

Who votes for the radical right? In the rest of Europe, where these parties have tripled their vote in the last two decades and started to be studied, a kind of "robot portrait" of their voters has been formed over time: men, young people, with low education, workers, unemployed or small entrepreneurs or traders. Men, because women reject the radical right's anti-feminism. Young people because they are less connected to established parties. Low-educated workers or unemployed, because they are more vulnerable and feeling a threat in the competition of immigrants in the labor market. Small landowners, because they are conservative, concerned with "law and order" and they are also potential victims of the current economic transformation.

The question now arises in Portugal, after the election of André Ventura and the sudden rise of CHEGA in the most recent polls, including this week's ICS / ISCTE poll. But the answer, even with all the care that must be taken by a small sample, defies the "robot portrait". Half of the voters who intend to vote for CHEGA are women. Between 18 and 24 years of age, the party barely exists, and it is only between 25 and 44 years old that we find a disproportionate support. One in five of CHEGA's current voters have a college degree and more than a third have completed secondary education, above the average education of Portuguese adults. Moreover, it's among these, and not among the less educated, that André Ventura's performance is best (or least poorly) evaluated.

CHEGA is also not particularly successful with small business owners and traders, a segment where the PSD continues to be the best positioned. And while more than a third of those who intend to vote for CDU or PS are (or were) workers, less than 10% of CHEGA voters have this characteristic. The occupational segment in which CHEGA stands out the most is that of office employees: non-manual workers with some qualifications, but without significant power over people or resources in their workplaces. And it is easier to find them in big cities than in the rural world, and in Greater Lisbon than elsewhere.

(...)

[Mike88]

2021 Presidential elections: André Ventura, CHEGA leader, officially launches his campaign for the presidency in a rally in Portalegre city:

https://twitter.com/Renascenca/status/1234064906640642048

André Ventura presents his candidacy for Belém and defends the creation of the "fourth Republic"

André Ventura, CHEGA leader, officially launched his campaign for the January 2021 presidential elections in a rally of around 500 supporters in Portalegre city, capital of the district that gave the highest share of the vote for CHEGA in the 2019 elections, 2.7%. In his speech, he lashed out against Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and António Costa, accusing Marcelo of accepting corruption and that he closes his eyes in many issues. He also criticized the current Constitution saying "it doesn't serve the country anymore", adding that a new one is needed and the establishment of a "fourth republic".

[Mike88]

PM Q&A debate in Parliament: Coronavirus and the new Lisbon airport were the main topics.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1235286617155416065

The emergence (of the virus), the landing (in Montijo) and other flights of the biweekly debate:

PM Costa went to Parliament today to address the coronavirus scare and didn't received much attacks, unless in the lack of resources of the NHS to fight the virus. Here, all opposition parties from left to right warned the the government cuts in the NHS could hurt the fight against the virus. PSD leader, Rui Rio, even joked that Costa is very "optimistic" about the virus. Costa also announced that the GDP forecast for 2020 could be lowered due to the virus. But the other main topic, the new Lisbon airport, continue to show how tense the mood between PS and PSD is becoming. After the PSD refused to help the PS in order to change a law that is blocking the airport, PS is accusing the PSD of contradiction as it was a PSD/CDS government that choose Montijo as the location. The PSD retaliated accusing the PS of being arrogant and of not talking with the mayors of the cities affected. In fact, before the debate, Costa held an emergency meeting with the mayors of the cities affected by the airport, but the message from the mayors was "it's too late now".

Costa also denied the accusation that, while he was a minister during Sócrates cabinets, he called TVI to get a journalist fired. The question was asked by CHEGA leader André Ventura, as Costa answered that it was an utter lie. Costa also announced that a new Bank of Portugal governor will be appointed by summer time.

[Mike88]

PSD refuses to support the PS on possible public-private partnerships in housing:

A proposed PS bill to change the regime public-private partnerships (PPP) bill will, most likely, be stroke down by the PSD. PSD leader, Rui Rio, made the decision today and the media was informed of it. The PS bill proposes that new PPP's should not be decided by the Finance Minister, but the cabinet and opens the door to private-public partnerships in the housing sector, forbidden until now. All parties are opposing the PS bill, from left to right. The parties argue that these changes will damage transparency.

According to the media, the possible failure of this bill could hurt the mayors of the 2 main cities of the country, Lisbon and Porto, who were counting on this bill to pass housing projects.

All parties are proposing, also, their own changes to the public-private partnerships regime but it's unclear if there will be left-right coalition against the PS and the government.

[Mike88]

Interesting data on the White/Black electorate in Portugal, from the 2019 post-election survey:

Share of the electorate %:

95% White
  3% Black
  0% Gypsy
  2% Didn't revealed

Left/Right position: (in a scale between 0 and 10, being 0 leftwing and 10 rightwing)

4.7 White
4.8 Black

2019 vote by political bloc %:

White electorate:

32% Left (PS, BE, CDU, PAN, Livre)
20% Right (PSD, CDS, CHEGA, IL, Alliance)
  2% Others/Invalid
46% Abstention

Black electorate:

33% Left (PS, BE, CDU, PAN, Livre)
  1% Right (PSD, CDS, CHEGA, IL, Alliance)
  4% Others/Invalid
62% Abstention

Poll conducted after the 2019 election in the 2019 post election survey, led by pollsters Marina Costa Lobo and Pedro Magalhães.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Sol newspaper and other regional newspapers:

Vote share %:

37.3% PS (-0.1)
27.4% PSD (+0.7)
  8.8% BE (-0.2)
  6.3% CDU (-0.2)
  3.3% CHEGA (+0.8 )
  2.9% CDS (-0.4)
  2.8% PAN (-0.3)
  1.1% IL (nc)
10.1% Others/Invalid (+0.2)

Q1: Do you agree with the legalization of Euthanasia?

48% Yes
21% No
31% Undecided

Q2: Do you think the Euthanasia issue should be decided by a referendum?

41% Yes
37% No
22% Undecided

Q3: What should the President do with the Euthanasia bill?

37% Sent it to the Constitutional Court
25% Sign it
20% Veto it
18% Undecided

Poll conducted between 1 and 5 March 2020. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.09%.

[Mike88]

Problems in the government: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa warns that the current legislature cannot be "walking dead" as Costa is pressured to talk with the left.

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1236240161056395264

With "blockades" in Parliament and without scope for agreements with the PSD, Costa is under pressure for new understandings with the left:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic, started this discussion when in a speech, during a conference celebrating the 30th anniversary of Público newspaper, he said that the current legislature cannot have a taste of ending of a cycle and advised the government to find agreements. Early elections will not be approved by him, he also said. This speech comes after some months of tensions between the PS and opposition parties in Parliament. The PS refused, after the 2019 elections, any agreements with the left and bet on occasional agreements between left and right. But, the PSD isn't helping the government in almost anything and has aligned with the left, several times until now, to embarrass the government. This leaves the PS in a very weak and uncomfortable position, as a political crisis that could led to a snap election, wouldn't be approved by the President.

Costa is now being pressured to forge some kind of agreements with the left, with some ministers and PS members asking for bridges between the left parties. But, is it too late? The current tensions between PS and BE make a possible agreement quite difficult. And PCP? Well, the Communists seem to be the preferred partner for Costa, but that could hurt the party's standing in the polls.

Also, today, the media is confirming the most poorly kept secret in recent Portuguese politics:

https://twitter.com/ojeconomico/status/1236255544807010304

Mário Centeno leaves the Government at the beginning of the summer.

Mário Centeno, current Finance minister and Eurogroup chairman, is expected to leave the government in the summer, when his term in the Eurogroup ends. He's expected to be appointed as the new Governor of the Bank of Portugal, succeeding Carlos Costa, in office since 2010. But, this appointment is being criticized as some accuse that this appointment creates several cases of conflicts of interest. The PSD has a vague position on this appointment, but history doesn't favour them as in the 90's, during Cavaco Silva governments, there was a case of a finance minister exiting the government to go directly to the post of governor of the bank of Portugal. The government, however, doesn't need the support of the opposition to appoint a new governor.

This exit, will force Costa to reshuffle the government, but how this Centeno exit could affect the government and the PS is still to be seen.

[Mike88]

War of words, this weekend, between Costa and Rio:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1236424963793522688

Video: António Costa: "Rui Rio has no thought whatsoever about any fundamental issue of Portuguese society"

Público newspaper published an interview with PM António Costa, where he had very harsh words for PSD leader Rui Rio. Costa accused Rio of not having any profund thought about any matter affecting Portuguese society and added that Rio's latest decisions are a "guerrilla strategy".

Rio responded to Costa's attacks saying he wouldn't respond in order to not "escalate the violent verbal attacks that can degrade democratic dialogue".

https://twitter.com/RuiRioPSD/status/1236674545131626497

Contrary to what I've been asked, I don't think I should answer. Entering this free escalation of verbal violence is degrading the democratic dialogue and hampering the country's governance. Above our impulses must be the national interest. It's what I think!

[Mike88]

The PM met, yesterday, with all party leaders to discuss the Coronovirus crisis:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1238241655708319745

Costa: "This is a fight for our survival"

PM António Costa met with all party leaders to discuss the measures to prevent the coronovirus. Rui Rio, PSD leader, advised the government to take more harsh measures to prevent the spread of the virus, like declaring the state of emergency and more measures to limit or ban the circulation of people. BE advised the government for mote restrictive measures and advised the PM to ask for help in the private health sector. CDS and CDU also support more restrictive measures, while André Ventura, CHEGA leader, thinks the measures proposed by the government are weak, will not work and advised the PM to close the borders.

After the meetings with all party leaders, Costa announced to the country the measures to prevent the spread of the virus.

[Mike88]

In the local level, many city halls are already going further than the government and are closing all public buildings, parks and beaches, canceling events and urging inhabitants to stay home and go out only for necessary reasons.

In Porto city, Mayor Rui Moreira is talking to private labs to create a public testing system, but it will only go ahead if the Health authorities approve it, as the goal is to stop people from going to public hospitals. The mayor is also in talks with Macau and Shenzhen in order to import many ventilators, adding that St. John Hospital is also involved in the talks.

Parliament has also decided not to close its doors, but parliamentary activity will be reduced to a minimum. This decision will be reevaluated next Wednesday.

[Mike88]

Coronavirus crisis: Regional governments of Madeira and Azores will force quarantine for anyone who enters the islands by midnight today:

There are still no confirmed cases in Madeira and Azores islands, but the regional governments are imposing measures to prevent cases. The Madeira and Azores governments have decided to put in quarantine anyone who enters in the islands. Since mid this week, staff checking temperatures in Madeira airport were put into place. The Madeira government has also suppressed many flights from Lisbon and other hot spots of the virus and will exempt taxes on water and electricity for the next two weeks.

The President of Madeira government, Miguel Albuquerque (PSD), said he took these harsh measures as the central government in Lisbon wasn't responding to his pleas.

[Mike88]

Coronavirus crisis: Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will meet with the Council of State, next Wednesday, to decide the state of emergency.

However, PSD leader, Rui Rio, went to twitter to advise the call of the state of emergency and the closure of all borders with Spain:
https://twitter.com/RuiRioPSD/status/1239246609902419969

The Government continues to have our full support, and I even incentive, to escalate measures to combat Covid-19, including the declaration of a state of emergency; the closing of the borders with Spain seems to me to be very urgent. Prevention is better than cure.

[Mike88]

Coronavirus crisis: Prime Minister and President of the Republic disagree on the declaration of State of Emergency.

https://twitter.com/joaogoliveira/status/1239872334439288832

António Costa and Marcelo disagree on declaration of state of emergency. Marcelo wanted to have already declared a state of emergency, but the Prime Minister preferred to use this resource later, without calling into question the suspension of rights, freedoms and guarantees.

The President of the Republic and the Prime Minister have been in clear disagreement regarding the use of the declaration of a state of emergency, Público newspaper knows. The President of the Republic has defended the idea that this step should be taken since, at least, last Thursday, but the Prime Minister has resisted.