Uruguayan presidential and congressional elections, October 26, 2019

[Mike88]

Average of exit polls:

39.1% Martínez (FA)
29.3% Lacalle (PN)
12.5% Talvi (PC)
10.2% Manini (CA)
  8.9% Others

From here: https://www.elobservador.com.uy/

Second round between Martínez and Lacalle on 24 November.

[Mike88]

Second round is tomorrow.

All polling points to a victory of PN over FA. The average of the last 4 polls gives 51.1% for Lacalle Pou (PN) and 43.5% for Martínez (FA).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good grief, I hope Martinez pulls an upset. If the past couple years hace shown us something it's that the Latin American right should never, ever be trusted with power again.

[bigic]

If the past couple years hace shown us something it's that the Latin American right should never, ever be trusted with power again.

This is ignorant of the country by country variances of the Latin American political scenes. Obviously Macri is not the same as Bolsonaro, and neither are Maduro and Michelle Bachelet.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If the past couple years hace shown us something it's that the Latin American right should never, ever be trusted with power again.

This is ignorant of the country by country variances of the Latin American political scenes. Obviously Macri is not the same as Bolsonaro, and neither are Maduro and Michelle Bachelet.

Sebastian Piñera was supposed to be the Nice, Moderate right-winger and he still ended up sending the army to quash democratic protests (he's been forced to back down, thankfully, but his actions still stand). Michel Temer was just Some Guy from a non-ideological catch-all party and he still participated in overthrowing Dilma, enacting vicious austerity measures, and putting Lula in jail to make sure he couldn't run. Mesa was supposed to be the nice, non-racist face of the Bolivian right and he still participated in the coup that overthrew Morales. PPK was supposed to be the sane center-right alternative to the Fujimoristas and he still ended up doing their bidding in a failed attempt to save his own corrupt ass. I guess Macri was the least bad of the bunch, but his refusing to let Morales use Argentine airspace is still proof that he doesn't care about democracy abroad even if he respects it in his own country.

[kaoras]

If the past couple years hace shown us something it's that the Latin American right should never, ever be trusted with power again.

This is ignorant of the country by country variances of the Latin American political scenes. Obviously Macri is not the same as Bolsonaro, and neither are Maduro and Michelle Bachelet.

Sebastian Piñera was supposed to be the Nice, Moderate right-winger and he still ended up sending the army to quash democratic protests (he's been forced to back down, thankfully, but his actions still stand). Michel Temer was just Some Guy from a non-ideological catch-all party and he still participated in overthrowing Dilma, enacting vicious austerity measures, and putting Lula in jail to make sure he couldn't run. Mesa was supposed to be the nice, non-racist face of the Bolivian right and he still participated in the coup that overthrew Morales. PPK was supposed to be the sane center-right alternative to the Fujimoristas and he still ended up doing their bidding in a failed attempt to save his own corrupt ass. I guess Macri was the least bad of the bunch, but his refusing to let Morales use Argentine airspace is still proof that he doesn't care about democracy abroad even if he respects it in his own country.

I used to think that Piñera was too incompetent to do any harm. Then I saw military helicopters with rifles at their doors flying over my roof and found about the nasty side effects of tear gas mixed with pepper spray.

[Mike88]

Exit polls seem to show a too close to call race between Lacalle Pou and Martínez:

Cifra exit poll: Lacalle 49.4%; Martínez 46.4%
Opción exit poll: Lacalle 49.5%; Martínez 46.5%
Factum exit poll: Martínez 48.3%; Lacalle 48.2%

[Mike88]

With 7.56% counted, mainly rural areas, I assume:

64.6% Lacalle Pou
35.4% Martínez

[Mike88]

Opción has updated their prediction:

48.8% Lacalle Pou
47.2% Martínez

Cifra as well:

49% Lacalle Pou
47% Martínez

[Mike88]

Factum updated prediction:

48.2% Martínez
48.2% Lacalle Pou

It can't be closer than this...

[Bidenworth2020]

Factum updated prediction:

48.2% Martínez
48.2% Lacalle Pou

It can't be closer than this...

OMG, could Martinez win!!!!?

[Bidenworth2020]

Also, where can I get live results?

[Antonio the Sixth]

NYT says Lacalle leads by 1 point with everything but provisionals counted.

[MRCVzla]

Preliminary results per the Electoral Court site (counted 100%):
Lacalle Pou 1,168,019 (48.71%)
Martínez 1,139,353 (47.51%)

Majority just of 28,666 votes, there are 35,229 observed votes (1.45% of the total votes), Martínez needs around more than 80% of them to reverse Lacalle Pou' victory. Final results will know until Friday.

[Skye]

Official results page: https://segundaeleccion2019.corteelectoral.gub.uy/ResumenResultados.htm#

No percentages, sadly.

El Observador does have %s: https://www.elobservador.com.uy/

Glad to see an ally of chavismo lose.

[Mike88]

Preliminary results per the Electoral Court site (counted 100%):
Lacalle Pou 1,168,019 (48.71%)
Martínez 1,139,353 (47.51%)

Majority just of 28,666 votes, there are 35,229 observed votes (1.45% of the total votes), Martínez needs around more than 80% of them to reverse Lacalle Pou' victory. Final results will know until Friday.

Martínez needs more than 90% of the observed votes to surpass Lacalle Pou. In October, he only got 27% of the observed votes.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Very sorry for abandoning this (for almost exactly a year!), especially when the actual elections happened 😬. Just popping back in to say that Tabaré Vázquez has died of lung cancer diagnosed in the last year of his term. QEPD.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very sorry for abandoning this (for almost exactly a year!), especially when the actual elections happened 😬. Just popping back in to say that Tabaré Vázquez has died of lung cancer diagnosed in the last year of his term. QEPD.

Oh yeesh. RIP.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Very sorry for abandoning this (for almost exactly a year!), especially when the actual elections happened 😬. Just popping back in to say that Tabaré Vázquez has died of lung cancer diagnosed in the last year of his term. QEPD.

Oh yeesh. RIP.

Yeah, he had a really awful 2019. Sad to see him go. Party lost (small in the grand scheme of things, but still), wife died, got cancer. There was a really nice hour-long interview with him on I wanna say TV Ciudad called Tabaré Vázquez: El Legado that came out a few days ago. Good recommendation if anyone’s interested in Uruguay.

[MRCVzla]

Sorry if I revive the topic, but it seemed more appropriate to put it here. Yesterday, March 27, an important referendum was held on the figure of the current conservative president Lacalle Pou regarding his Law of Urgent Consideration (LUC) in force since July 2020, and which is considered the main initiative of the coalition government (based on Lacalle's electoral program) and an amendment to all of a large part of the measures taken by the governments of the leftist Broad Front. The latter, together with the main unions, managed to collect enough signatures (25% of the electoral register: more than 673 thousand voters, collecting almost 800 thousand signatures) to activate the referendum and resort to challenging 135 of the 476 articles contained in the law. All this was done throughout the first half of 2021 and in December the Electoral Court validated and approved the holding of the referendum.

The popular consultation held yesterday had two ballots, one pink with the option YES (supported by the leftist opposition) and another light blue with the option NO (supported by the conservative government), both with the following legend (translated):
"I vote for (x) the referendum appeal against 135 articles of Law No. 19,889 of July 9, 2020"

In order to succeed and repeal the articles in question, the YES option had to exceed 50% of the valid votes (including blank votes, which would count in favor of the NO option), many of the contested articles had to do with the public security (penal reform), education, state-owned companies, economy (financial freedom, fuel), agricultural sector, social programs, housing, among other provisions. The role of President Lacalle was very active in defending the law, even suspending his public agenda in order to give messages of support for the NO campaign.

The results of 100% of the tables counted indicate the victory of the NO option with 1,087,557 votes (plus 28,747 blank votes) over the 1,065,001 of the YES option, turnout was 85.7%. The law keep his vigency and Lacalle Pou' government got reinforced but leaving an image of a divided country.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What was the law about?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

What was the law about?

A lot of things at once - sort of a right-wing Uruguayan Build Back Better omnibus bill (and passed through a similar quick-fix parliamentary procedure). The most controversial articles gave a lot more power to the police, but it touched on education, housing, etc as well.