1964: What if Goldwater had not opposed the Civil Rights of 1964?
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  1964: What if Goldwater had not opposed the Civil Rights of 1964?
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Author Topic: 1964: What if Goldwater had not opposed the Civil Rights of 1964?  (Read 3168 times)
Democratic Hawk
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« on: January 23, 2006, 09:48:34 AM »

Do you think the result of the 1964 Johnson vs Goldwater election would have been significantly, or very, different had Goldwater not opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964?

Dave
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2006, 11:17:17 AM »

Assuming that Goldwater would have supported the Civil Rights Act I think LBJ would have swept the South. Goldwater might have won the traditional Republican strongholds in other parts of the country (especially Maine and Vermotnt).
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Gustaf
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« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2006, 11:18:18 AM »

On the other hand, LBJ did extrmely well in those states, so I'm not too sure actually...
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nini2287
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« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2006, 11:22:51 AM »



Lyndon Johnson/Hubert Humphrey 45% PV 324 EV
Barry Goldwater/William Miller 41% 161 EV
Strom Thurmond/George Wallace 14% 53 EV
Other <1% 0 EV
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Michael Z
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« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2006, 12:25:45 PM »

I don't think it would have made much of a difference. LBJ won the election mainly because a) pity over JFK, and people being rather reluctant to have three Presidents in the space of one-and-a-half years, and b) the perception of Goldwater as a whackjob who would start nuclear war with the Soviets. Goldwater might have picked up a few more states, but that's about it, LBJ would have still been the clear winner.
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Undisguised Sockpuppet
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« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2006, 12:46:06 PM »

Heres what you get if you have scandals aobut LBJ's corruption break out close to the election, a reactionary racist candidate splitting the dixiecrat vote in dixie and goldwater running a quieter campaign with less accusations of extremism.



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Bacon King
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« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2006, 10:21:03 PM »

Heres what you get if you have scandals aobut LBJ's corruption break out close to the election, a reactionary racist candidate splitting the dixiecrat vote in dixie and goldwater running a quieter campaign with less accusations of extremism.




I'm thinking the 'reactionary racist' candidate would carry some southern states.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2006, 11:53:34 PM »

Just pull up the map from 1936 and make a few percentage and EV changes, and there you go.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #8 on: February 03, 2006, 08:15:15 AM »

Same as OTL except for the Deep South which goes red. Grin

Not really. I'd have to put a lot of guesswork into individual states, but along the lines of what Gustaf said. A Deep Southern ind candidacy of some sort is likely, but whether it will be full blown 1968ish as Nini envisages is doubtful.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9 on: February 17, 2006, 11:37:16 PM »

In 1960, Nixon carried the African-American vote, barely.  We might have seen a stronger Goldwater in the South, because some Black people would have voted for him.
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memphis
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« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2006, 07:28:57 PM »

In 1960, Nixon carried the African-American vote, barely.  We might have seen a stronger Goldwater in the South, because some Black people would have voted for him.
Most black people in the South couldn't vote yet in 1964. It was only after the Voting Rights Act of 1965 that Southern blacks got the franchise. A pro-Civil Rights Goldwater just would have spawned a Southern third party candidate like in 1948, 1960, and 1968.
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Gabu
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« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2006, 07:30:06 PM »

Heres what you get if you have scandals aobut LBJ's corruption break out close to the election, a reactionary racist candidate splitting the dixiecrat vote in dixie and goldwater running a quieter campaign with less accusations of extremism.





How would "splitting the dixiecrat vote" result in the Republican getting 80% in Mississippi and 60% in Alabama?  Usually, a win due to a split results in a small margin of victory (and winning with 40% of the vote)...
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skybridge
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« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2006, 11:41:37 AM »

Do you think the result of the 1964 Johnson vs Goldwater election would have been significantly, or very, different had Goldwater not opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964?

Dave

Goldwater would have lost the south as well.
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