Shift in Party ID by Religion 2010's
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  Shift in Party ID by Religion 2010's
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« on: January 01, 2020, 01:47:59 AM »

https://twitter.com/ryanburge/status/1212039207058845697

Interesting piece of information on how party ID has shifted 2010-2018 according to CCES. Largely a continuation of previous trends with various religious groups becoming more Republican which began to occur post 1980.

Long term we are heading for a situation whereby among whites, basically all religious whites will be in the GOP and the only whites left in the democratic party will be non-religious whites. Among Hispanics the split will probably be more even though religious Hispanics will likely disproportionately be Republican. Blacks religious and non-religious will likely remain democratic.

What this will mean though is the religiosity gap between the two parties will be huge as basically the only religious voters left in the democratic party will be religious blacks + a few religious Hispanics whereas the GOP will have religious Hispanics and also basically all religious whites.

It will be interesting to see what the politics of the 2 parties looks like when there is a much more complete polarisation along religious lines with the exception of black voters.

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khuzifenq
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« Reply #1 on: January 01, 2020, 02:04:22 AM »

I wonder why the overall sample shifted 3.9% towards the GOP.
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« Reply #2 on: January 01, 2020, 02:08:43 AM »

I wonder why the overall sample shifted 3.9% towards the GOP.

I think the GOP sample was probably artificially low in 2010 due to the millions of voters who left the GOP in 2006-2009 over the Iraq war and financial crash, some of the 2010-2018 growth is simply the GOP returning to its normal party ID levels and making up for the attrition it suffered in 2006-2009.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2020, 12:55:12 AM »

white catholics are going to be the swing vote for the next election or two.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: January 05, 2020, 11:37:01 AM »

white catholics are going to be the swing vote for the next election or two.

Doesn't a 40% identification as Republican significantly higher than the nationwide average?

According to Pew, White Catholics seem to be a solid GOP group at this point:


From "An examination of the 2016 electorate, based on validated voters" by Pew Research Center
https://www.people-press.org/2018/08/09/an-examination-of-the-2016-electorate-based-on-validated-voters/

I certainly think they are more GOP than the general population, but they seem more swingy than other groups (e.g., minorities and evangelical whites, or non-religious whites).  They are also pretty well represented in a lot of battleground states. 
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