2020 Oregon Redistricting

[NOVA Green]

Thanks for posting the thread OR Blue Dawg'....

1.) I have to say that I appreciate your overall contributions to the Forum, as a relatively new member who has quickly mastered many of the intricacies of redistricting combined with OR legal matters related to how OR-CD's are allowed to be formed with minimal chances of legal challenges.

2.) This has inspired me to register for Dave's "App" to explore options to create a fair (legal) distribution of CD's, while naturally maximizing both the short-term and long-term electoral benefit to the Democratic Party (Recognizing that my sympathies are with a strong "Left" component of the Party rather than "Centrist" DEMs on many policy items).

3.) I will likely be playing around with this for some time, and not yet ready to post my own maps, although there are other threads from various posters from a wide variety of partisan persuasions and avatars that have visited this topic on this very sub-board.

4.) There have been several previous threads where this topic was previously discussed, albeit from a time period not as close to the US Census releases...

I was attempting to estimate population distributions in Oregon back in 7/21/17 to create some crude numbers and maps.... 

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=330790.msg6927795#msg6927795

5.) Although I have not yet explored Dave's App, clearly projected population forecasting could potentially play a major role, since there are many parts of Oregon where population growth is increasing and stagnating, and there is a narrow margin for creating "equal districts by pop", so this is a variable that we need to consider.

6.) In addition to point #5, naturally we need to consider what a potential '20 >'30 Pop growth might look like, *especially if we are considering Medium and Long Term implications when it comes to electoral compositions and party composition.

7.) This point becomes even more difficult if we consider that perhaps the '16 Presidential Election might have been a temporary factor when it comes to partisan voting patterns.

8.) It is entirely possible, that as I have noted elsewhere that some of the swings towards Trump in '16 in "rural and small town Oregon", may have possibly been caused by 3rd Party defection from folks that couldn't vote for HRC, but wouldn't vote for Trump (Many of whom may have voted for Obama in '08 and/or '12). Not to say that there were not significant swings towards Trump (Including significant increase in vote share particularly in many parts of the State).

9.) It is also entirely possible that some of the massive swings towards HRC in Upper-Income and educated suburbs of Metro PDX (And similar downstate demographic places from Salem to Corvallis, Eugene, and Medford... not to even mention parts of Central Oregon around Bend) may well also have been an anomaly....

10.) Redistricting in Oregon can be tricky business if we simply look at voting patterns simply off of the past few Presidential Election Cycles....

11.) Multiple variables to consider here, and one element that has not been mentioned is the resentment that many Working-Class Oregonians feel about being priced out of our own communities, as the cost of living has surged in many housing markets in a State which arguably suffered the worst at the hands of the Great Recession, which plays much more heavily in "Downstate Oregon" than in Metro PDX....

12.) Rant aside... will need to spend some time and create my own map....   

 

[NOVA Green]

Not sure if it has been posted elsewhere, but the Oregon Supreme Court just gave the State Legislature an extra (3) Months to complete redistricting as opposed to handing it over to the SoS 7/1/21 as per the Oregon Constitution.

It's behind a Paywall unless you are an Oregonian subscriber like myself so quoting a few passages to share with Atlas which seem perhaps the most relevant.

Not really sure how this will really impact the overall outcome either way with the +1 US House Seat for 2022, but certainly something to consider especially with State House and State Senate shifts which might end up protecting incumbency where SH and SD boundaries roll up into US-REP districts.

Leaders of the Oregon Legislature prevailed Friday in their legal quest for the right to redraw the district boundaries of the state’s 90 House and Senate seats.... Republicans in the Senate were jubilant Friday, saying keeping the task in the Legislature rather than handing it to the Democratic secretary of state, who they said is extremely partisan, was a big win, even though Democrats control both chambers.

House Republicans expressed concerns, meanwhile, that the Legislature’s work will also be too Democrat-controlled. House Republican Leader Christine Drazan, R-Canby, said she wants Oregon to give the job to a non-partisan commission, as Washington and California have done.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/04/oregon-legislauture-wins-right-to-redraw-house-and-senate-district-boundaries.html

[NOVA Green]

Not a map per say, but here is an article from The Oregonian published today.

It's a subscriber exclusive, so unless you have a subscription (like I do) it's behind the paywall unless you want to pay a few $$$ to get a "new subscriber discount".

Don't want to exceed guidelines when it comes to copywrite articles but here's one item which stood out from what is a very well written article:

Communities of interest

This time around, lawmakers will base the maps on 2020 population data the Census Bureau plans to release Thursday. It will show which areas of the state have grown and shrunk in population and provide some information about the “communities of interest” Salinas referenced, a broad term in Oregon law that can be interpreted as neighborhoods, school districts, unincorporated communities and other ties that connect people.

One such tie Democrats will be eyeing is race and ethnicity, particularly among the state’s fast-growing number of Latinos who are citizens of voting age. While Latinos make up an estimated 13% of the state’s population, just one House district, corresponding to less than 2% of the 60 House seats, has a majority Latino population. That is House District 22, centered on Woodburn and held for a third term by Rep. Teresa Alonso León, who immigrated to the U.S. as a child with her migrant farmworker parents.

In addition to overall population counts, the census information will show the race and ethnicity of voting-age adults and of children. The census does not ask people about their party registration or preferences, but party registration by address is available from the state elections office....   

....Salinas said population estimates in recent years have shown significant population growth in parts of Washington County — Portland State University’s modeling predicted a countywide increase from the 2010 census to 2020 census of more than 73,000 people. And, if the actual census population count bears that out, Salinas said it could make sense to “start there to see where our sixth congressional district is.” The university’s population modeling showed a still larger increase of 79,000 residents in Multnomah County.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/08/oregon-lawmakers-prepare-to-draw-new-congressional-legislative-districts.html

[NOVA Green]

Not a map per say, but here is an article from The Oregonian published today.

It's a subscriber exclusive, so unless you have a subscription (like I do) it's behind the paywall unless you want to pay a few $$$ to get a "new subscriber discount".

Don't want to exceed guidelines when it comes to copywrite articles but here's one item which stood out from what is a very well written article:

Communities of interest

This time around, lawmakers will base the maps on 2020 population data the Census Bureau plans to release Thursday. It will show which areas of the state have grown and shrunk in population and provide some information about the “communities of interest” Salinas referenced, a broad term in Oregon law that can be interpreted as neighborhoods, school districts, unincorporated communities and other ties that connect people.

One such tie Democrats will be eyeing is race and ethnicity, particularly among the state’s fast-growing number of Latinos who are citizens of voting age. While Latinos make up an estimated 13% of the state’s population, just one House district, corresponding to less than 2% of the 60 House seats, has a majority Latino population. That is House District 22, centered on Woodburn and held for a third term by Rep. Teresa Alonso León, who immigrated to the U.S. as a child with her migrant farmworker parents.

In addition to overall population counts, the census information will show the race and ethnicity of voting-age adults and of children. The census does not ask people about their party registration or preferences, but party registration by address is available from the state elections office....   

....Salinas said population estimates in recent years have shown significant population growth in parts of Washington County — Portland State University’s modeling predicted a countywide increase from the 2010 census to 2020 census of more than 73,000 people. And, if the actual census population count bears that out, Salinas said it could make sense to “start there to see where our sixth congressional district is.” The university’s population modeling showed a still larger increase of 79,000 residents in Multnomah County.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/08/oregon-lawmakers-prepare-to-draw-new-congressional-legislative-districts.html

I read it using a paywall bypass and it says they plan to release drafts on September 3rd. Also lots of signs that the Democrats will indeed pursue a fair map which likely dooms DeFazio and probably isn't good news for Schrader or Dem prospects in the new seat, either

So although all of the comments were relevant, insightful, and well thought out, I chose to quote YOURS (Simply because you mentioned Defazio by name ).

Been a bit since I played around with OR CD Maps, and obviously once the Census dump hits Tomorrow I'm sure all of y'alls will be all over it!   

Regardless of the COI and Transportation corridor clauses in the OR Constitution with roughly correspond with Muon's rules, I believe that it is possible to create potentially a 5:1 DEM Map in Oregon for most of the '20s.

Sure, safe bet would be to go for a 4:2 vs shooting for a 5:1 and risking a 3:3 in a PUB wave year.

The "safety option" would effectively gift the Republicans and extra seat in the US House for quite possibly the entire decade of the '20s.

Going for a 5:1 map is feasible, although theoretically there might be some short-term pain (as well as the "nervous nancies" complaining on Atlas and elsewhere about how Dem's are risking a 3:3.

Reality is that in Oregon the most dramatic population growth are located in the Cities, which is heavily influenced by the Oregon Land Use Planning Laws which help protect zoned "agricultural and rural lands".

This is a ticking time bomb for PUB's as we look at how the dramatic increased population growth in Cities throughout Oregon has shifted PUB-DEM voting margins and patterns in not only Federal Elections, but also Statewide Elections.

For example in Southern Oregon, Trump only narrowly won Medford in 2020 (His largest Oregon City win), although the City is located in OR-02.

Ashland / Talent is also an obvious choice to through into CD-04 to buff up DeFazio, but again one would need to find a way to avoid heavily PUB cities outside of Medford such as Central Point and Eagle Point mucking it up.

DeFazio still has a Grants Pass problem, but pop growth in Metro Eugene-Springfield should shore him up, so long as turnout is strong in 2022.

Haven't really thought about CD-05 yet.... just a few initial musings.   

[NOVA Green]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3fed2b79-9c14-4390-8fdb-214d2070e9f8

With census data officially out, I took the opportunity to take a crack at a fair map. The population is obviously kind of scuffed - I tried to roughly match the districts with the official 2020 county numbers, making some assumptions along the way. Here's some of my rationales:

- Washington and Yamhill is 1,800 people from being a perfect district under the new numbers (a surprise), so I made that the base of this map. This seat is obviously Safe D and a layup for Bonamici.
- This also allows Portland to be kept whole and Multnomah to only be split twice - the new 3rd becomes a Multnomah-only seat. Gresham, however, became too big to take out of the seat whole, so it gets split (with the bulk ending up in the 5th).
- I took Salem (city) out of the 5th as the population roughly lined up for that to make sense. Unfortunately this means some of Salem's outer locales/Keizer are in the 5th but it's better than splitting the city outright or dropping the 5th into Linn. This new 5th is about three points more Republican, but trends mean it's probably Lean D outside of GOP wave years.
- The 6th takes coastal Lane and Veneta-Junction City for population equality. Clinton wins this district narrowly (and, it moves left in 2020), but this is a pretty good fair fight seat.
- The 4th picks up the rest of Josephine, Ashland, and some scraps in north Jackson. Slightly partisan decision here but it's pretty justifiable (keeps Medford and Center Point whole) and can be seen as a concession to Ds who probably won't like the risks associated with this map. Barely Trump in 2016, moving slightly right from DeFazio's old seat.

Really cool stuff---

I love it that you went in and started with the new data which we actually have--- Population by County in OR.

As most of those actually viewing these threads are likely well aware, OR tends to minimize County splits *** for the most part *** since for many small and predominately rural counties it makes the whole COI part of the Oregon requirements much easier to satisfy.

I will be *EXTREMELY* interested to see the more detailed data when it comes to population by City once it is released, since I have referenced elsewhere and multiple occasions, most of the population growth in OR tends to occur within City Limits / Urban Growth Boundaries as part of the Oregon Land Use Planning law from the 1970s.

Also, as I have stated previously elsewhere, it is totally logical to create a new CD predominately based upon the Mid-Valley, since Cities such as Salem, Albany, and Corvallis have much more in common with each other and for decades we keep getting chopped up into either CD-04 or CD-05 (Since the 1990s) this will effectively allow Metro PDX, which accounts for roughly 50% of the State's pop to have (3) districts while the other (3) are divided among different regions of the State.

Honestly, this almost look somewhat like a 5:1 (D) map to me through the 2020s, although naturally I understand some DEM leaning avatars might be a bit nervous, especially in 2022....

Excellent and great job putting all of this together in such a short time frame!

[NOVA Green]

snip

I checked DRA stats for House District 22. It's crazy.
Total Population 2019

Pop   %
Total   69,326   100.0%
White   29,752   42.9%
Hispanic   34,777   50.2%
Black   1,789   2.6%
Asian   1,450   2.1%
Native   3,978   5.7%
Pacific   826   1.2%
Citizen VAP 2019

Pop   %
Total   37,371   100.0%
White   24,056   64.4%
Hispanic   10,477   28.0%
Black   899   2.4%
Asian   884   2.4%
Native   698   1.9%
Pacific   209   0.6%

This is a part of the state changing very rapidly demographically.

This is true, although Woodburn has long been a majority Latino City, and historically there has been an extremely large Latino population in Northeast Salem as well for decades now, so in some ways perhaps not as surprising as it might initially appear.

Overall the population of Salem grew by 14% between '10 and '20 (+21k pop) and Woodburn 8% (+2k Pop), and I would not be surprised if much of this growth was disproportionately Latino.

One other item which sometimes slips under the radar is that even in many rural parts of the Central Willamette Valley there has also been a significant growth in Latino population, including in the rural belt in OR HD-22 which stretches from North of Salem to Woodburn along I-5, and although it hasn't yet really been visible yet much in terms of changing voting patterns within these areas, I would not be surprised to see that become a bit more evident over the next decade in places like Polk, Yamhill, and rural Marion counties.

[NOVA Green]

So for anyone interested, The Oregonian did publish the total number of inhabitants for all cities in OR > 500 Pop, earlier today, but again behind the Paywall.

https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2021/08/oregon-city-and-town-populations-see-how-much-your-community-grew-or-shrank-in-runup-to-the-2020-census.html

Also, Oregon has become much more diverse in the past decade:

The state added nearly 139,000 Hispanic or Latino residents; 53,000 Asian residents; 30,000 white, non-Hispanic residents; 13,000 Black residents; 9,700 American Indian or Alaska Native residents; and 5,800 Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander residents. And nearly 61,000 more Oregonians checked the box for “some other race,” indicating they didn’t identify with any of the options presented......   

Meanwhile, Oregon’s white, non-Hispanic or Latino population grew by 1%. Rynerson said that growth is driven by newcomers to the state; more white people die than are born in Oregon each year because white Oregonians are older on average and share in the state’s overall low birth rate.

“If there were nobody moving into Oregon, the white population would decline, and it almost did decline,” he said. “There was just enough white people moving here to prevent the population from declining.”

https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2021/08/oregon-grew-more-diverse-in-the-2010s-census-shows.html

[NOVA Green]

Been watching the public testimony during the live redistricting meeting today.   A good majority are speaking in favor of Congressional Map B, mostly that it keeps counties intact and doesn't include districts with Portland.

There hasn't been much discussion on the legislative maps, but the few comments out there seem to be split in number between supporting C and B.

I kinda think the OR Dems were a bit too aggressive with Congressional map A.

Where do people go to comment, since I strongly suspect the PUB kooks are the ones raising the most objections, something which will likely slip under the radar of most OR DEMs despite being a +15% DEM State at the Federal Level.

[NOVA Green]

Hopefully there might be a way to redistrict Schrader out.

If not, let's primary the fink in 2022....

[NOVA Green]

One nice thing about the map is that it moves me into CD-05 vs CD-04 providing an opportunity to primary Schrader, assuming we can get a solid Center-Left DEM to run   

[NOVA Green]

Looks like DEMs won't be able to pass the map on Saturday, regardless of "nude Republican hiking and camping trips to Idaho".

Three House DEMs are already excused from voting....

My Oregonian subscription is running crazy amok so can't even quote a brief excerpt, but still I thought some of y'all might be interested, regardless of the alleged "COVID-19" infestation.



https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/09/oregon-house-democrats-may-struggle-to-hold-votes-saturday-with-many-members-already-excused.html

[NOVA Green]

So as of 3 PM Pacific Time, still no quorum in the State House and six members shy.

The Democrats’ compromise plan was not, however, enough of a compromise in the eyes of House Republicans, who blasted it for continuing to split voters in the Democrat-dominated Portland area into four different districts. Nearly all Republicans in the House who were not excused from Saturday’s session refused to show up for a procedural floor vote to advance the new map. Rep. Ron Noble, R-Carlton, did attend. As of 3 p.m., that left the House six members shy of a quorum and unable to vote.

....

“There’s been a lot of hard work for the last 24 hours,” House Speaker Tina Kotek, a Portland Democrat, said from the House dais shortly after 9 a.m. “House and Senate leadership for both parties have worked hard to craft a compromise ... I want to praise everyone who’s been working in the last 24 hours to come to a fair compromise that hopefully we can take up today.”

....

The district on that new map that appears it would have a nearly even Republican-Democratic match-up is currently represented by Rep. Kurt Schrader, a Clackamas County Democrat now in his seventh term in Congress. A moderate Democrat by national standards, he has lived in the district for decades.

The heavily redrawn district would, if the plan were to be approved, include fast-growing Bend. Projected Democratic growth there could cause the district to become bluer over the coming decade.

....

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/09/oregon-democrats-have-drafted-a-less-democrat-tilted-congressional-map-hope-to-get-republicans-on-board-for-votes-today.html

[NOVA Green]

Good deal.... regardless of either map, looks like now I am getting bumped from CD-04 to CD-05 (Like has happened back and forth so many times over the years).

Bummer I won't have DeFazio representing me anymore, but like I said at least give me a chance to vote against Schrader in the DEM Primary in 2022 to send a message not to mess with Biden's agenda in order to showboat his "Centrist Credentials", which won't help him at all with PUBs in the district, but will definitely hurt him with DEM defections to 3rd party candidates in the future if he's not careful.

[NOVA Green]

Lol at the idea Oregon democrats are awesome . They have completely driven this state into the ground and Oregon republicans with their gross incompetence have basically enabled them to do so .

How is Oregon "into the ground"? Seems to be doing pretty well.

We are literally ranked in the low 40s in high school graduation:

https://www.oregonlive.com/education/2019/01/oregon-generated-second-worst-graduation-rate-in-us-in-2017.html


We rank 49th in relative median income:



https://blog.stewart.com/stewart/2021/05/14/the-richest-and-poorest-states-in-america-before-and-after-comparative-cost-of-living-adjustments/

Oregon ranks #21 in MHI according to this site at $62,800

https://www.careerinfonet.org/rank_median_income.asp?printer=true&soccode=&stfips=47&id=&nodeid=12

Oregon ranks #27 in MHI using the Statistical Atlas numbers at $53.3k:

https://statisticalatlas.com/United-States/Household-Income#figure/state

It looks like the chart you presented adjusts MHI based upon the Cost of Living...

If so that is surely more a factor with the lack of affordable housing in many parts of the state, which quite frankly has very little to do with the Democratic Government in the state and much more to do with banks and building companies priorities, and quite possibly the reality that since the Great Recession there has been very little investment nationally in building new affordable housing.

One could make a strong argument that the high rates of homelessness are also closely correlated with the lack of affordable housing, and again very little to do with the Democratic Gvt in Salem.

[NOVA Green]

Analysis of what became of the old districts, by population percentage:

1st: 66.9% to the 1st; 33.1% to the 6th
2nd: 76.8% to the 2nd; 20.4% to the 5th; 2.8% to the 3rd
3rd: 79.5% to the 3rd; 11.8% to the 1st; 8.7% to the 5th
4th: 77.9% to the 4th; 15.6% to the 5th; 6.5% to the 2nd
5th: 49.5% to the 6th; 39.1% to the 5th; 7.5% to the 4th; 3.2% to the 1st; 0.8% to the 3rd

And an analysis of where the new districts come from, again by population percentage:

1st: 81.9% from the 1st; 14.2% from the 3rd; 3.9% from the 5th
2nd: 92.5% from the 2nd; 7.5% from the 4th
3rd: 95.7% from the 3rd; 3.4% from the 2nd; 0.9% from the 5th
4th: 91.0% from the 4th; 9.0% from the 5th
5th: 46.8% from the 5th; 24.6% from the 2nd; 18.2% from the 4th; 10.5% from the 3rd
6th: 59.5% from the 5th; 40.5% from the 1st

This is pretty interesting because it indicates that the new 5th is not in fact the natural successor to the old 5th (despite the old 5th’s incumbent Schrader happening to live in the new 5th); and I don’t think it’s at all guaranteed he gets renominated (in either the 5th or 6th) in 2022.

Yeah--- that's a solid point there.

The biggest shifts from the old CD-05 > CD-06 are the movement of Metro Salem out of the district, including Polk County completely, which basically has West Salem as well as the heavily DEM college Towns of Indepdendence-Monmouth.

The new CD-05 with 24.6% from the old CD-02 is naturally Bend, plus some higher income year round resorts and a few rural ranching / farming precincts thrown in to make it contiguous.

I guess the question would be to what extent would these newer entries to the district possibly look at supporting a challenge to Schrader for having challenged Biden's policy agendas (Which is entirely feasible).

Losing Lincoln and Tillamook Counties probably wouldn't make for that much of an impact, although Lincoln County tends to skew a bit more Progressive DEM mixture of Seniors and WWC residents, and  although Tillamook has a somewhat similar mixture on paper, tends to lean Republican compared to the State at large, although still a competitive county for National elections at times, so thinking is maybe there might slight more of an incumbency bias in the event of a DEM Prim challenge (So probably a wash).

The old CD-04 > CD-05 is pretty much taking all of Linn County and dumping it into the district.

The DEMs are currently pretty anemic in much of Linn County these days, however there are still a significant # of DEM votes in Albany (which not only did Biden win in 2020 but even exceeded Obama '08s narrow win in the City).

As the local labor markets price many workers and students out of living in Corvallis, Albany is facing an increase in more progressive liberal type DEM voters.

Clackamas County--- It's a bit difficult to tell from the maps I'm looking at, but it appears that the precinct boundaries are basically intact between '12 and '22.

This is where I would imagine Schrader would be perhaps most well known over the decades with DEM voters less predisposed to primary him than many other parts of his new district.

Still, he's kind of running against the grain, even in the PDX suburbs of ClackCo, where DEMs have been making rapid gains, especially since '08.

The results of the OR '20 GE demonstrated to a significant extent about how inelastic OR voters are becoming  in down-ballot races, which was I question that I posed related to DeFazio and CD-04.

Sure it could be that without Trump on the ballot a candidate like Schrader might out-perform Biden '20 numbers, but it really seems like by and large most OR voters will stick with either the DEMs or PUBs for Congress and will be much less prone to the types of swings that previously used to be the case.

Going back to the concept of a potential 2022 DEM Primary challenge, interestingly enough you have a few spots in CD-04 (Linn County in particular), where there are a significant number of DINOs who did vote in the 2020 DEM Primaries for "Republican Candidates" running on a DEM ballot....

[NOVA Green]

FYI:

Just added a post in the Congressional Election board now that we have our first candidate who appears to be running in the new OR CD-06.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=465985.msg8282032#msg8282032

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/10/democratic-lawmaker-andrea-salinas-plans-to-run-for-oregons-new-6th-congressional-seat.html

[NOVA Green]

Nice!

Not quite sure how I missed this, even being election week and all that.

So basically this is the end of the road and it's looking like the final map?

If so the next mission to the squeeze Schrader and hopefully set up a 2022 Primary scene for a candidate who will actually support Biden's agenda, instead of running this whole faux "Centrist DEM" narratives, while he pockets huge $$$ from Big Pharma.

I will miss having DeFazio as my Congressman, but the fact that the composition of the electorate has changed so dramatically in Schrader's new district it provides decent opportunities, especially with the addition of our comrades over in Bend!!!!

[NOVA Green]

snip

Lol, the Rs got owned so hard. Wow.

Our Political Scientists are better than theirs, especially when they try to ship in out of state Carpet Baggers, who apparently have no idea of OR Election law!

Suspect there are some PUB Atlas Posters w/o the gravitas of a PhD, who could have presented a more competent argument.