2020 Oregon Redistricting

[GALeftist]

2 Safe R, 3 Safe D, one Likely D (Clinton +8):

I think Dems should be fine with this.

I feel like Democrats don’t understand the urgency of maximizing their advantage during this process. These maps last 10 years and Republicans in Texas, Florida, Ohio, etc, are going to be ruthless. One seat can make a difference in the balance of power.

5-1 or bust in Oregon. 14-3 in Illinois.

5-1 won’t happen unless Dems refuse to compromise, which would result in a walkout.  

What would happen if the ORGOP does quorum bust? Ballotpedia seems to think it falls to the Secretary of State and the ORSC; obviously the SoS is a Democrat, and all the justices on the court were appointed by Democratic governors. Do Democrats have any incentive to compromise if the ORGOP is proposing stuff like Plan B and they likely have a favorable court anyway?

[GALeftist]

I have a feeling there are some backroom deals going on here, given that it was the Democrats who initiated the move to recess and apparently the Oregon constitution requires that Oregon House Republicans at least agree to suspend some rule and advance legislation today specifically for some reason. Earlier, some state Senate Republican characterized the state legislative maps as meriting an "it's complicated" relationship status (rather than the "divorce" he'd give the congressional map). This is obviously a deeply stupid metaphor, but what I suspect it signifies is that the Republicans think that the changes to the map by the Democrats sweetened the deal somewhat. I imagine that map is the carrot, with the stick being the prospect of the SoS drawing a hardcore gerrymander if they don't acquiesce. We'll see if they can work it out before tomorrow, but my money is on the 5-1 map passing, given that if the Republicans just vote for it they'll be able to shore up important incumbents who might otherwise get thrown to the wolves.

[GALeftist]

Oregon House is in recess until 1 PM (4 PM Eastern), apparently at the request of House Republicans. Probably more deals going on. We'll see.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1433881526534561799

If this passes I will be so annoyed

[GALeftist]

Welp, I hope the Republicans enjoyed being able to walk out, because I suspect that era of Oregon politics will be over once Fagan is done with the map.

I'm honestly pretty surprised that they'd trade any remnants of power they have in the state for a map which will probably be 4-1-1 as opposed to 5-1, especially given that the leadership is all in areas which would probably get nuked under a Dem gerrymander

[GALeftist]

Hearing it will be this map (thanks @LillianBelle2 on Twitter), with DeFazio shored up bigly and the new seat being pretty reliable Dem as well. Downside is I think Schrader's district (which takes in Bend) shifts right a couple points, but it's trending Dem, so I think we might still have a chance of primarying him even under this map.

[GALeftist]

Is Schrader an unpopular figure in his district?

Not super popular or unpopular afaik (he definitely doesn't have as strong a brand as DeFazio next door), but he has become unpopular with at least some of the Democratic base due to constantly threatening to thwart Biden's agenda in the House.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/OregonGovBrown/status/1442650660407705601?s=20

Democrats off to an early lead in the redistricting wars in terms of actually passed maps, I suppose, with one new seat under their belt plus DeFazio substantially shored up. Beautiful stuff, was worried it'd get derailed

[GALeftist]

Don't know how I missed this, but looks like the ORSC upheld congressional districts as well. Oregon has its maps for the decade.

https://redistricting.lls.edu/wp-content/uploads/OR-211124-order-dismiss-congress.pdf