2020 Oregon Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Oregon and IL D trifectas will be under much pressure to minimize R seats due to the likely GOP Gerrymanders in FL, GA and TX.

[lfromnj]

how certain is OR gaining a sixth district?

If it still had 5 districts it would have like 840k people per district so almost certainly gaining.

[lfromnj]

how certain is OR gaining a sixth district?

If it still had 5 districts it would have like 840k people per district so almost certainly gaining.

So I assume OR-6 is about the 427th or so seat that is awarded and thus out of the edge zone?

Yeah most likely.

[lfromnj]

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/05/independent-redistricting-commission-supporters-launch-oregon-signature-gathering-campaign.html

Btw slight chance it makes the ballot

[lfromnj]

Legitimate question
Would Schrader even want the cut into excess portland?
Thats 120k of the strongest leftists possible

[lfromnj]

Does anyone else want to support this map for the blue district?
Creates a nice cmpetetive Clinton +1 district with the D primary having a bunch of Portland white antifa leftists  deciding it and the R primary having a bunch of Proud Boys.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7ef4d47b-a4f6-4627-a0f9-71cb5aebbd82, I made this 6-0 map, and I think this is probably legal, I don't think this crosses the Cascades more than once, could be wrong though

Not population equalized for 2018 dude. And you split the Cascades twice. And almost certainly not legal due to the fact every district but  1 has portland in it.

[lfromnj]

I have been discussing this before but assuming the eastern Oregon district goes into Jackson county what should the SW Oregon district take in? This question is for a truly non partisan map as the D trifecta would obviously take Ashland in.
Ashland or Medford?
Which is the TRUE non partisan decision?
If it takes in Medford the district moves to Trump +4 to 5 while if it takes in Ashland its around Clinton +1. Both of these decisions could make sense. Taking in Medford makes the district look a tiny bit better. I feel like any D poster would say Ashland and any R poster would say Medford because frankly both moves make a decent amount of sense but they have pretty large effects on the final partisanship of the district.
Frankly its important to ask this question in redistricting overall and understand one's inherent bias's.

[lfromnj]

If people are wondering what I mean



Also my bad. No matter what Medford is in the blue district but what matters is if unincorporated rurals or Ashland should be with the  green district.
In the first scenario you get a district that was +0.0 clinton by a few hundred votes
In the second scenario you have a +5.5 Trump district.

There is a lot of arguments over what should be done here but it isn't certain and I feel it just mostly depends on personal partisanship.

[lfromnj]

Shouldn't the mid Willamette valley also have a rep?. Instead you split it here. Anyway the point still stands. This isn't about Oregon has a whole but rather redistricting decisions in general. There is also the argument about roads and how the highways connect Ashland to the east and also compactness.

[lfromnj]

Shouldn't the mid Willamette valley also have a rep?. Instead you split it here. Anyway the point still stands. This isn't about Oregon has a whole but rather redistricting decisions in general. There is also the argument about roads and how the highways connect Ashland to the east and also compactness.

Yeah. Marion+Linn+Benton+Polk+Lincoln is a compact Trump+2 district, and any fair map has some version of it. However, that basically locks in a 3-1-2 map which OR Dems are never going to go for.

Oh of course, im just speaking theoretically. I fully understand and expect Oregon D's to mildly gerrymander wherever they can. Im just talking in general about a fully non partisan map in Oregon.

Whats your opinion on the Jackson county split I proposed above. Which map would you prefer?

[lfromnj]

Oh the answer to the Ashland/Medford question is put Medford with the Eugene district. The reason for this is simply road contiguity. To reach Ashland you have to go through Medford.

[lfromnj]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

[lfromnj]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

6 seats.  Also, a fair map now has 1 safe R seat, unless you do something ridiculous, like send the eastern OR seat into downtown Portland.

forgot to type Safe R at the end for the 6th seat.
But yeah I can't see a way to draw 2 Safe R seats in Oregon.

[lfromnj]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

6 seats.  Also, a fair map now has 1 safe R seat, unless you do something ridiculous, like send the eastern OR seat into downtown Portland.

forgot to type Safe R at the end for the 6th seat.
But yeah I can't see a way to draw 2 Safe R seats in Oregon.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
Here's my fair map.  My map has 2 dem seats, 1 rep seat, and 3 swing seats.  2 lean R 1 leans D.  You could get 2 safe R by switching Linn County and Eugene, as a bipartisan gerrymander which could almost assure a 4-2 delegation.  But my map follows the criteria well and likely something like this would be drawn.  OR naturally has a lot of swing seats, because dems are packed in Portland and reps are packed east of the cascades, both communities which should be kept whole.  

Yup my fair map is very close,as I said its impossible for any natural map to have 2 safe R seats. Id even argue your map is slightly D tilting with the Clackamas seat as I feel Washington and Clackamas should each anchor one seat but there isn't a lot of ways to perfectly split them apart and your map is even very compact.

[lfromnj]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

6 seats.  Also, a fair map now has 1 safe R seat, unless you do something ridiculous, like send the eastern OR seat into downtown Portland.

forgot to type Safe R at the end for the 6th seat.
But yeah I can't see a way to draw 2 Safe R seats in Oregon.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1170526c-354a-497a-b11c-2840b4436867
but clearly a bipartisan gerrymander

I think defazio is from springfield btw which is just east of eugene in the green district.

[lfromnj]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

My Salem and Eugene districts are tilt R, looks like yours are tossups, did Clinton win either?

My Eugene district is Clinton by a few hundred votes while my Salem district is 45% Trump to 43% Clinton. In either case, both districts has about 10% of their votes go to (mostly left leaning) third parties. If you look at the 2012-2018 composite, then Salem is 48-45 D and Eugene is 50-43D. In the case of the Eugene-SW OR district specifically, the non-Eugene parts of the district are the fastest shrinking parts of the state while the ultraliberal Eugene-Springfield metro grows at a moderate clip.

Wow our Eugene seats are quite different.  Mine is Trump+5.6, due to taking different parts of Jackson county.  It appears you put Ashland in to make it vote Clinton.

Yup. Otherwise I'd have to cut Medford:

He didnt cut Medford and your road connection isnt great. Your choice to take ashland is a light D gerrymander. Definitely not inexcusable but I think Idaho is slightly better.

[lfromnj]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

My Salem and Eugene districts are tilt R, looks like yours are tossups, did Clinton win either?

My Eugene district is Clinton by a few hundred votes while my Salem district is 45% Trump to 43% Clinton. In either case, both districts has about 10% of their votes go to (mostly left leaning) third parties. If you look at the 2012-2018 composite, then Salem is 48-45 D and Eugene is 50-43D. In the case of the Eugene-SW OR district specifically, the non-Eugene parts of the district are the fastest shrinking parts of the state while the ultraliberal Eugene-Springfield metro grows at a moderate clip.

Wow our Eugene seats are quite different.  Mine is Trump+5.6, due to taking different parts of Jackson county.  It appears you put Ashland in to make it vote Clinton.

Yup. Otherwise I'd have to cut Medford:

He didnt cut Medford and your road connection isnt great.

There's no good way to do Jackson. In his case, he cut White City and Central Point. It might honestly be better to move Hood River into a Portland district which allows you to put all of Jackson County, excluding Jacksonville, Rogue River, and Central Point, into the Eastern Oregon district.

True , I think either decision is acceptable but I think both of you should be honest that the decision mostly comes down to partisanship, even I think Ashland is probably slightly better with eugene but the rest of Jackson better resembles the rest of the district. Overall the decision is minor from a COI perspective but inherently partisan. Shouldn't have called it a D gerrymander per se, just a D tilting decision while Idahos is R tilting. 

[lfromnj]

The Antifa vs 3% district is going to be great fun for the primary and general.

[lfromnj]

@sol I am guessing you wanted this?

I guess it does give the advantage of keeping the coast and the mid Willamette valley together. No particular major partisan changes either way if you just put Lincoln in red while putting more of Yamhill in Blue.

[lfromnj]

@sol I am guessing you wanted this?

I guess it does give the advantage of keeping the coast and the mid Willamette valley together. No particular major partisan changes either way if you just put Lincoln in red while putting more of Yamhill in Blue.

Yeah, or something similar. Was just thinking in terms of CoI rather than partisanship---a fair map of Oregon is probably 3-3 or 3-2-1 no matter what happens here.

Oh yeah I know the partisanship barely matters here. The red district does shift 1 point to the right compared to a coastal split altough as noted that's a very small shift and the main argument here is COI. What did you do in South Oregon?

Anyway Its pretty obvious why I made red district 3 county splits. I felt like Woodburn and Newburg should be with the Portland metro rather than going deeper into Yamhill or Marion to place with the metro.

[lfromnj]

@sol I am guessing you wanted this?

I guess it does give the advantage of keeping the coast and the mid Willamette valley together. No particular major partisan changes either way if you just put Lincoln in red while putting more of Yamhill in Blue.

Yeah, or something similar. Was just thinking in terms of CoI rather than partisanship---a fair map of Oregon is probably 3-3 or 3-2-1 no matter what happens here.

Oh yeah I know the partisanship barely matters here. The red district does shift 1 point to the right compared to a coastal split altough as noted that's a very small shift and the main argument here is COI. What did you do in South Oregon?

Anyway Its pretty obvious why I made red 3 counties. I felt like Woodburn and Newburg should be with the Portland metro rather than going deeper into Yamhill or Marion to place with the metro.

Here's what I've been playing with, though it's not so final or thought out.

Yeah just a few questions to do in a fair map.
Does Hood river go with the east or the west?

Do you split or keep the northern half of the coast together?

What is the split in Jackson County.

And then just some basic questions in what goes with the 3 Portland districts as the Portland metro isn't fully 3 districts although it is close to it.

The new central Oregon district no matter will be fairly swingy as Linn+ Benton basically cancel each other out and there isn't any deep blue or red counties nearby.

[lfromnj]

Here is a good way to draw OR-02 if you are looking for what is best for the Dems. Rest of state is Clinton + 20.7.

Is there a road connection between Bend and the rest of the state? (that doesn't pass through your OR-02)

Nope. There are no highway connections between Eugene and Bend that stay entirely within Lane and Deschutes Counties.

That's what I thought; this map is illegal.

Only as illegal as SCOOR wants it to be.
And I am fairly sure that SCOOR is controlled by Democrats.

As the state Constitution states districts have to be contiguous by road, it would take massive creativity by the court there.

No more creativity than it will take the SCOFL to ignore the fair districts amendment of that state, which they are definitely going to do.

Nah thats more subjective . A better example would be if the Ohio Supreme court just cancelled the county rules. Again it isn't that hard to find a road connection somewhere.  However the real issue isn't the court but if the OR GOP quorum busts.

[lfromnj]

Here is a good way to draw OR-02 if you are looking for what is best for the Dems. Rest of state is Clinton + 20.7.

Is there a road connection between Bend and the rest of the state? (that doesn't pass through your OR-02)

Nope. There are no highway connections between Eugene and Bend that stay entirely within Lane and Deschutes Counties.

That's what I thought; this map is illegal.

Only as illegal as SCOOR wants it to be.
And I am fairly sure that SCOOR is controlled by Democrats.

As the state Constitution states districts have to be contiguous by road, it would take massive creativity by the court there.

No more creativity than it will take the SCOFL to ignore the fair districts amendment of that state, which they are definitely going to do.

Nah thats more subjective . A better example would be if the Ohio Supreme court just cancelled the county rules. Again it isn't that hard to find a road connection somewhere.  However the real issue isn't the court but if the OR GOP quorum busts.

If the OR GOP quorum busts, then the law is that OR SOS Shemia Fagan (a Democrat) draws the maps.

That's legislative, congressional goes to the courts which will def be Dem slanted although probably less so.

[lfromnj]

I really like this map! I wonder if you could reduce the splitting of Portland by shifting some of the coastal district's precincts from Washington County to the McMinnville-based district. It might make the map appear less gerrymandered while still maintaining Democratic advantage.

I'm just really impressed with how much this looks fairly reasonable while still being very much a gerrymander.

Thank you. Unfortunately, it really needs those 90-10 precincts out of Portland to work. Trading that for Washington County just doesn't create strong enough districts.

Funnily enough there actually isn't a single precicnt in Portland where Clinton got 90.