2020 Oregon Redistricting

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

It really isn't that hard to draw a 5-1 map while leaving all of Eastern Oregon intact. The key is to draw a Eugene-Ashland district and then split the Portland metro 4 ways (basically NW Portland+Beaverton+Hillsboro+NW Coast, SW Portland+Tigard/Tualitan+Yamhill+Polk+Benton+Lincoln, NW Portland+Gresham, and Inner SE Portland+Clackamas+Marion+Linn)

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

It really isn't that hard to draw a 5-1 map while leaving all of Eastern Oregon intact. The key is to draw a Eugene-Ashland district and then split the Portland metro 4 ways (basically NW Portland+Beaverton+Hillsboro+NW Coast, SW Portland+Tigard/Tualitan+Yamhill+Polk+Benton+Lincoln, NW Portland+Gresham, and Inner SE Portland+Clackamas+Marion+Linn)

True, the issue is that the Eugene-Ashland district needs to take in a lot of conservative territory, so it's really difficult to shore up without yanking too much liberal territory from the new district and the 5th or reaching into the Bend cookiejar.

It's possible if you carefully carve up Jackson and Josephine. The 5 Dem districts in this map should all be Clinton+5 or more.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

This is generally a good 5-1 map, but I have a few suggestions:
1. The 3rd should stay east of the Willamette, even though that forces a Washington/Yamhill split. Let it take in some of Clackamas like it does now.
2. Give the 6th everything between the river and 205, south of Powell.
3. The 1st should have Clatsop county, even though that means the 5th has to take in more of Washington.
4. West Linn and Lake Oswego belong in the 1st or the 5th. As a general rule, do not cross the Willamette in the Portland metro.
5. Having the 5th cut into Springfield is better than it crossing the river in Lane.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I redid the 3rd, 1st, and 6th. Now the new CD is D+10, pretty much safe D.
I adopted suggestion 1.
I still prefer cutting into Multnomah twice over splitting Washington so I decided instead to feed the 6th CD into western Downtown Portland.

"5. Having the 5th cut into Springfield is better than it crossing the river in Lane." That something I cannot do. I didn't hand-pick precincts in Lane County just to turn OR-04 into a Trump district due to it having more Trump-voting territory in northern Lane. (I assume that you meant to type 6th there instead of 5th)

Nice. I really like what you did. However, it's really a 3 Dem, 2 Tossup, 1 GOP map, and that can't be changed without cutting Washington.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I redid the 3rd, 1st, and 6th. Now the new CD is D+10, pretty much safe D.
I adopted suggestion 1.
I still prefer cutting into Multnomah twice over splitting Washington so I decided instead to feed the 6th CD into western Downtown Portland.

"5. Having the 5th cut into Springfield is better than it crossing the river in Lane." That something I cannot do. I didn't hand-pick precincts in Lane County just to turn OR-04 into a Trump district due to it having more Trump-voting territory in northern Lane. (I assume that you meant to type 6th there instead of 5th)

Nice. I really like what you did. This should be a pretty safe 5-1 and it doesn't cross the Cascades. I wish there were better ties between the northern and southern parts of the 5th, but that really isn't possible without cutting Washington.

Thanks for the kind words. This is what happens you hand-pick precincts. In the 2nd's share of Jackson for instance there are 0 Clinton precincts. And in the 6th's share of Lane there are only 3 Clinton precincts.

Of course. However, I had to edit my earlier comment because it looks like the 5th and 6th districts are very competitive, and any map with 4+ safe D seats has to split Washington. The general design is good, but I think you'll have to do that if you want 5 Clinton+5 or higher seats.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I redid the 3rd, 1st, and 6th. Now the new CD is D+10, pretty much safe D.
I adopted suggestion 1.
I still prefer cutting into Multnomah twice over splitting Washington so I decided instead to feed the 6th CD into western Downtown Portland.

"5. Having the 5th cut into Springfield is better than it crossing the river in Lane." That something I cannot do. I didn't hand-pick precincts in Lane County just to turn OR-04 into a Trump district due to it having more Trump-voting territory in northern Lane. (I assume that you meant to type 6th there instead of 5th)

Nice. I really like what you did. This should be a pretty safe 5-1 and it doesn't cross the Cascades. I wish there were better ties between the northern and southern parts of the 5th, but that really isn't possible without cutting Washington.

Thanks for the kind words. This is what happens you hand-pick precincts. In the 2nd's share of Jackson for instance there are 0 Clinton precincts. And in the 6th's share of Lane there are only 3 Clinton precincts.

Of course. However, I had to edit my earlier comment because it looks like the 5th and 6th districts are very competitive, and any map with 4+ safe D seats has to split Washington. The general design is good, but I think you'll have to do that if you want 5 Clinton+5 or higher seats.

You wind up hitting a wall past a certain point. 4 safe D seats or heavily respecting CoI - two things you have to choose between.
The map is optimized for safety while following CoI to a high degree. But one could tear up the CoI and easily get a safe 5-1, as Tack's map illustrates.

I agree. My concern is that in your map, the 5th isn't particularly safe, leaving the possibility of a 3-3 map in a R wave. Understandably, the 4th is always going to be a tossup unless you really start violating COIs.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

My Portland metro quad-cut map:



OR-01: West Portland, Beaverton, Hillsboro, Astoria. Safe D (Bonamici).
OR-02: Northeast Portland, Gresham, Sandy. Safe D (Blumenauer).
OR-03: Southeast Portland, Oregon City, Salem. Safe D (Schrader).
OR-04: Tigard, Wilsonville, Albany, Corvallis. Safe D (Open).
OR-05: Eugene, Roseburg, Coos Bay, Medford. Likely D (DeFazio).
OR-06: Bend, Klamath Falls, Grants Pass, Hermiston. Safe R (Walden).

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

how certain is OR gaining a sixth district?

If it still had 5 districts it would have like 840k people per district so almost certainly gaining.

So I assume OR-6 is about the 427th or so seat that is awarded and thus out of the edge zone?

Yeah most likely.

If Oregon somehow missed out on a seat AGAIN, then what would the map look like?

The current one with the 3 Portland metro districts bit smaller and the 2 downstate seats a bit larger. Although I really doubt Oregon doesn't get a 6th district .

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Oryx, that map is probably illegal. Under the current law, I don't think you can get away with crossing the cascades more than once and the 3rd does some weird COI pairings and crosses the Willamette. I think OR Dems are more likely to pursue 4-1-1, to be honest.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Legitimate question
Would Schrader even want the cut into excess portland?
Thats 120k of the strongest leftists possible

He'd probably be okay if he keeps all of Marion and most of Clackamas. I suppose he could take Gresham instead although the margins out there are weaker.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7ef4d47b-a4f6-4627-a0f9-71cb5aebbd82, I made this 6-0 map, and I think this is probably legal, I don't think this crosses the Cascades more than once, could be wrong though

Uh, that crosses the Cascades 3 times, the 5th isn't contiguous by road, and it crossed the Willamette 5 times. Definitely illegal. Everything east of the Cascades (except maaaaybe Hood River+Wasco) has to stay together which means you cannot come over and carve out Bend/Redmond to use in the Willamette Valley, and you definitely can't pair Klamath Falls and Corvallis.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7ef4d47b-a4f6-4627-a0f9-71cb5aebbd82, so is this better? This is 5-0-1 with just one split, I think

It's a move in the right direction but still illegal. You have to make the 5th take in Jefferson, Jackson, and drop the Portland tendril. It's impossible to make a legal Oregon map without one safe Republican district.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Shouldn't the mid Willamette valley also have a rep?. Instead you split it here. Anyway the point still stands. This isn't about Oregon has a whole but rather redistricting decisions in general. There is also the argument about roads and how the highways connect Ashland to the east and also compactness.

Yeah. Marion+Linn+Benton+Polk+Lincoln is a compact Trump+2 district, and any fair map has some version of it. However, that basically locks in a 3-1-2 map which OR Dems are never going to go for.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Shouldn't the mid Willamette valley also have a rep?. Instead you split it here. Anyway the point still stands. This isn't about Oregon has a whole but rather redistricting decisions in general. There is also the argument about roads and how the highways connect Ashland to the east and also compactness.

Yeah. Marion+Linn+Benton+Polk+Lincoln is a compact Trump+2 district, and any fair map has some version of it. However, that basically locks in a 3-1-2 map which OR Dems are never going to go for.

Oh of course, im just speaking theoretically. I fully understand and expect Oregon D's to mildly gerrymander wherever they can. Im just talking in general about a fully non partisan map in Oregon.

Whats your opinion on the Jackson county split I proposed above. Which map would you prefer?

Well, I'm predisposed to favor putting Medford in eastern Oregon on partisanship grounds alone, but Medford/Central Point/White City are also on the main highway connecting Southern and Eastern Oregon whereas Ashland's connection to Klamath Falls is much more tenuous. All this is to say I tentatively favor the Medford in Eastern Oregon map, but I get both sides. Frankly, I think it might be best to move all of Jackson over to Eastern Oregon and put Hood River and The Dalles in with Portland.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Republicans should deny the Dems a quorum if they try something egregious.  3-1-2 is fair, but a 4-2 is tolerable. 

OK, so you are obviously fine with Democrats doing this in Texas, Georgia, and Florida if Republicans draw unfair lines?

No, I just believe in winning

But you do understand how precedents work and can screw you over, right?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Republicans should deny the Dems a quorum if they try something egregious.  3-1-2 is fair, but a 4-2 is tolerable. 

OK, so you are obviously fine with Democrats doing this in Texas, Georgia, and Florida if Republicans draw unfair lines?

No, I just believe in winning

But you do understand how precedents work and can screw you over, right?

Then stop the other side from doing it

If you deny our side a quorum in one state, we'll do the same to you in another state. You can't get around that.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene, Mid-Willamette Valley), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

6 seats.  Also, a fair map now has 1 safe R seat, unless you do something ridiculous, like send the eastern OR seat into downtown Portland.

forgot to type Safe R at the end for the 6th seat.
But yeah I can't see a way to draw 2 Safe R seats in Oregon.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1170526c-354a-497a-b11c-2840b4436867
but clearly a bipartisan gerrymander

I think defazio is from springfield btw which is just east of eugene in the green district.

He is, but he's also probably retiring in 2022.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

My Salem and Eugene districts are tilt R, looks like yours are tossups, did Clinton win either?

My Eugene district is Clinton by a few hundred votes while my Salem district is 45% Trump to 43% Clinton. In either case, both districts has about 10% of their votes go to (mostly left leaning) third parties. If you look at the 2012-2018 composite, then Salem is 48-45 D and Eugene is 50-43D. In the case of the Eugene-SW OR district specifically, the non-Eugene parts of the district are the fastest shrinking parts of the state while the ultraliberal Eugene-Springfield metro grows at a moderate clip.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

My Salem and Eugene districts are tilt R, looks like yours are tossups, did Clinton win either?

My Eugene district is Clinton by a few hundred votes while my Salem district is 45% Trump to 43% Clinton. In either case, both districts has about 10% of their votes go to (mostly left leaning) third parties. If you look at the 2012-2018 composite, then Salem is 48-45 D and Eugene is 50-43D. In the case of the Eugene-SW OR district specifically, the non-Eugene parts of the district are the fastest shrinking parts of the state while the ultraliberal Eugene-Springfield metro grows at a moderate clip.

Wow our Eugene seats are quite different.  Mine is Trump+5.6, due to taking different parts of Jackson county.  It appears you put Ashland in to make it vote Clinton.

Yup. Otherwise I'd have to cut Medford:

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

My Salem and Eugene districts are tilt R, looks like yours are tossups, did Clinton win either?

My Eugene district is Clinton by a few hundred votes while my Salem district is 45% Trump to 43% Clinton. In either case, both districts has about 10% of their votes go to (mostly left leaning) third parties. If you look at the 2012-2018 composite, then Salem is 48-45 D and Eugene is 50-43D. In the case of the Eugene-SW OR district specifically, the non-Eugene parts of the district are the fastest shrinking parts of the state while the ultraliberal Eugene-Springfield metro grows at a moderate clip.

Wow our Eugene seats are quite different.  Mine is Trump+5.6, due to taking different parts of Jackson county.  It appears you put Ashland in to make it vote Clinton.

Yup. Otherwise I'd have to cut Medford:

He didnt cut Medford and your road connection isnt great.

There's no good way to do Jackson. In his case, he cut White City and Central Point. It might honestly be better to move Hood River into a Portland district which allows you to put all of Jackson County, excluding Jacksonville, Rogue River, and Central Point, into the Eastern Oregon district.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

Update: ballot measure blocked by SCOTUS so this probably isn't happening.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here is my take on a map that I've done by "thinking outside the box" and crossing the cascades once, but heading towards rural Douglas county instead of Medford or Ashford. I thought that'd make the map a slight D gerrymander but apparently there is little difference (as long as you keep things clean at least):



OR-01: Clinton+12, D+4
OR-02: Trump+26, R+15
OR-03: Clinton+64, D+23
OR-04: Clinton+3, D+2
OR-05: Trump+1, R+2
OR-06: Clinton+11, D+4

Overall, it seems to me that it will be nearly impossible for Dems to draw a 5-1 map and that they'll need to concede 1 swing district at the very least, or possibly even 2 swing districts or one Safe R district (depends on how things go)

OR-03 is waaaaay too Dem.  That should be brought down to D+15 at most.

Why? It is a compact Portland district? I guess you can move it around slightly but splitting Portland would be too obvious of a gerrymander?

Splitting Portland is the norm, actually. The current (fair) map pairs Portland west of the Willamette with Washington County and Portland east of the Willamette with Gresham. I see no reason why future maps would be different.