2020 Oregon Redistricting

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/93c0f5b0-6396-40f7-b7ab-c3ae740ebc58
If OR gets a commission, they might get something like this.  Its advantages are generally preserving county and city lines, as well as competitive districts.  Dems won't like it has 3 trump districts.  2 of them were close and lean Dem downballot, but still is risky for Dems.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8914defd-d130-4d0b-a44b-e6a192c812c4
Here is a tilt D bipartisan gerrymander.  Protects Dem incumbents but in return gives Republicans OR-6 as a second R pack.   A 4D-2R delegation does disproportionately favor Dems, but less than the current 4D-1R. 

[Idaho Conservative]

Republicans should deny the Dems a quorum if they try something egregious.  3-1-2 is fair, but a 4-2 is tolerable. 

[Idaho Conservative]

Republicans should deny the Dems a quorum if they try something egregious.  3-1-2 is fair, but a 4-2 is tolerable. 

You are thinking about Washington, there is are negotiations in Oregon, especially when the Dems ahve their super-trifecta. Also, quorom denial tactics when it comes to redistricting tend to fail, see Texas 2003.

succeeded with the climate bill.  I'm not saying the dems shouldn't get a favorable map either, just not an egregious one. 

[Idaho Conservative]

Republicans should deny the Dems a quorum if they try something egregious.  3-1-2 is fair, but a 4-2 is tolerable. 

OK, so you are obviously fine with Democrats doing this in Texas, Georgia, and Florida if Republicans draw unfair lines?

No, I just believe in winning

[Idaho Conservative]

Republicans should deny the Dems a quorum if they try something egregious.  3-1-2 is fair, but a 4-2 is tolerable. 

OK, so you are obviously fine with Democrats doing this in Texas, Georgia, and Florida if Republicans draw unfair lines?

No, I just believe in winning

But you do understand how precedents work and can screw you over, right?

Then stop the other side from doing it

[Idaho Conservative]

Republicans should deny the Dems a quorum if they try something egregious.  3-1-2 is fair, but a 4-2 is tolerable. 

OK, so you are obviously fine with Democrats doing this in Texas, Georgia, and Florida if Republicans draw unfair lines?

No, I just believe in winning

But you do understand how precedents work and can screw you over, right?

Then stop the other side from doing it

If you deny our side a quorum in one state, we'll do the same to you in another state. You can't get around that.

different states have different rules

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

6 seats.  Also, a fair map now has 1 safe R seat, unless you do something ridiculous, like send the eastern OR seat into downtown Portland.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

6 seats.  Also, a fair map now has 1 safe R seat, unless you do something ridiculous, like send the eastern OR seat into downtown Portland.

forgot to type Safe R at the end for the 6th seat.
But yeah I can't see a way to draw 2 Safe R seats in Oregon.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
Here's my fair map.  My map has 2 dem seats, 1 rep seat, and 3 swing seats.  2 lean R 1 leans D.  You could get 2 safe R by switching Linn County and Eugene, as a bipartisan gerrymander which could almost assure a 4-2 delegation.  But my map follows the criteria well and likely something like this would be drawn.  OR naturally has a lot of swing seats, because dems are packed in Portland and reps are packed east of the cascades, both communities which should be kept whole. 

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

6 seats.  Also, a fair map now has 1 safe R seat, unless you do something ridiculous, like send the eastern OR seat into downtown Portland.

forgot to type Safe R at the end for the 6th seat.
But yeah I can't see a way to draw 2 Safe R seats in Oregon.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1170526c-354a-497a-b11c-2840b4436867
but clearly a bipartisan gerrymander

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

My Salem and Eugene districts are tilt R, looks like yours are tossups, did Clinton win either?

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

My Salem and Eugene districts are tilt R, looks like yours are tossups, did Clinton win either?

My Eugene district is Clinton by a few hundred votes while my Salem district is 45% Trump to 43% Clinton. In either case, both districts has about 10% of their votes go to (mostly left leaning) third parties. If you look at the 2012-2018 composite, then Salem is 48-45 D and Eugene is 50-43D. In the case of the Eugene-SW OR district specifically, the non-Eugene parts of the district are the fastest shrinking parts of the state while the ultraliberal Eugene-Springfield metro grows at a moderate clip.

Wow our Eugene seats are quite different.  Mine is Trump+5.6, due to taking different parts of Jackson county.  It appears you put Ashland in to make it vote Clinton.