2020 Oregon Redistricting

[UncleSam]

Here's the map I made. It's sort of 3-2-1 by my judgment, although I don't claim to have a deep understanding of Oregon's political geography. I these districts, I focused on attempting to create districts that protected my understood communities of interest. These districts split very few cities.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6022e9ae-6846-4a42-ac82-4c0dee49a0e5

I made these districts without considering incumbency protection, but it works out that Districts 1-4 actually go one each to the four current representatives from Oregon.

District 1- Portland. Clinton+63.2, Obama+62.2. Titanium D
District 2- Portland suburbs. Clinton+28.1, Obama+24.4. Solid D
District 3- Northwest Oregon. Trump+4.7 (this was an unintentional surprise), Obama+4.2. Likely/Lean D/Tossup? (Not sure about this rating)
District 4- Urban Willamette Valley. Clinton+18.4, Obama+24.3. Solid D
District 5- Remaining Willamette Valley/Coast/Bend. Trump+13.4, McCain+1.9.
Lean/Likely R? (Not sure about this rating)
District 6- Southern and Eastern Oregon. Trump+28.6, McCain+16.4. Solid R

Overall, I'd say that 1, 2, and 4 are D, 6 is R, while 3 and 5 are competitive.

One strange thing is that Trump and Clinton each won 3 of these districts, which does not match with Oregon's political makeup. However, for some reason I get the sense District 3 would solidly held by Schrader and other Democrats.

I would predict this to result in a 4-2 makeup, but with District 5 possibly going Democratic eventually due to Bend trending left.

I'd love any feedback people have.

I don’t think Dems would or should go for this. While they have a good shot at a 4-2 and an outside chance at 5-1 down the line, there’s no reason to make three districts this vulnerable. In a year merely as R as 2016, the delegation becomes a 3-3 split, and that’s not something Dems want to ever risk no matter how big of a wave hits.

[UncleSam]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbb59be-0b30-4b36-b80e-a9cb69ce275c

2020 Results -
OR-1
62.82%   33.62%

OR-2
36.29%   60.89%

OR-3
78.87%   18.22%

OR-4
53.37%   43.45%

OR-5
55.94%   40.89%

OR-6
50.11%   46.41%

This feels a bit like a dummymander- what’re the 2016 POTUS results for these? My guess is Trump came within 5 points of carrying 4/6 districts, which is pretty horrendous if OR trends even a little R over the next decade.

I do like the 5 county splits, but this also cuts across the natural boundary of the Cascades which OR has consistently avoided doing, as doing so would trigger a lawsuit that would almost certainly result in a redraw.

[UncleSam]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbb59be-0b30-4b36-b80e-a9cb69ce275c

2020 Results -
OR-1
62.82%   33.62%

OR-2
36.29%   60.89%

OR-3
78.87%   18.22%

OR-4
53.37%   43.45%

OR-5
55.94%   40.89%

OR-6
50.11%   46.41%

This feels a bit like a dummymander- what’re the 2016 POTUS results for these? My guess is Trump came within 5 points of carrying 4/6 districts, which is pretty horrendous if OR trends even a little R over the next decade.

I do like the 5 county splits, but this also cuts across the natural boundary of the Cascades which OR has consistently avoided doing, as doing so would trigger a lawsuit that would almost certainly result in a redraw.

In 2016 Trump only won the OR-2 and OR-6

Sure but I assume OR 4 and 5 were somewhat close as well. Just seems like a silly thing to let Rs have so many potentially competitive districts.

[UncleSam]

Wait so Dems made a deal with Rs then backed away from the deal? Is that more or less what happened?

I for one can’t wait until our computer overlords draw all the maps and cut all of this human bickering nonsense out once and for all.