2020 Oregon Redistricting

[OBD]

With my home state set to gain a representative, things will get interesting here. While Democrats fully control the government, creating a 5-1 Democratic gerrymander is difficult, and there's an independent redistricting initiative in the pipeline. Democrats also have to consider incumbent protection, as Schrader and DeFazio are both in vulnerable districts. Because of trends, DeFazio's 4th is much more vulnerable in practice, and Schrader's 5th can be shored up by taking in more of Portland in exchange for the Trumpy coast and Polk county. These considerations, which include DeFazio's impeding retirement, can limit what Democrats want to do in terms of redistricting.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f5c226fc-e00b-4312-9ab4-6a19fcbc76fe

This map is a potential 5-1 map. It leaves 18-county Eastern Oregon intact, while shoring up Schrader, creating a swingy but D-leaning 6th district, and shifting the 4th district marginally left. The borders are also, on the whole, tidier (except the 4th district). The drawbacks of this map are the multiple county splits (which can be remedied at the expense of Democratic numbers in the 4th and 6th districts), the 2nd district eating into the Willamette Valley, and Bonamici's 1st getting slightly less safe. The 4th district is Clinton +1.6, the 5th district is Clinton +11.7, and the 6th district is Clinton +4. Note: this map is population-equal based on 2016 data.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e80bd6fb-a2c4-4a73-90d6-23bd028baa12

The above map is a possible 4-2 map. Targeting 4 seats instead of 5 makes things far easier for the Democratic mapmakers, and there are many ways to go here. The above map is one (admittedly extreme) option, which gives DeFazio a Clinton +11 district and Schrader a Clinton +14 one (though the 5th can be shored up further by taking in more of SE Portland in exchange for Gresham). The 6th district, on the other hand, becomes a Trump +16 district, and is safely Republican. This map could actually please both parties, depending on how ambitious Brown, Kotek, and Courtney are regarding this issue.

Thoughts?

[OBD]

Here's the map I made. It's sort of 3-2-1 by my judgment, although I don't claim to have a deep understanding of Oregon's political geography. I these districts, I focused on attempting to create districts that protected my understood communities of interest. These districts split very few cities.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6022e9ae-6846-4a42-ac82-4c0dee49a0e5

I made these districts without considering incumbency protection, but it works out that Districts 1-4 actually go one each to the four current representatives from Oregon.

District 1- Portland. Clinton+63.2, Obama+62.2. Titanium D
District 2- Portland suburbs. Clinton+28.1, Obama+24.4. Solid D
District 3- Northwest Oregon. Trump+4.7 (this was an unintentional surprise), Obama+4.2. Likely/Lean D/Tossup? (Not sure about this rating)
District 4- Urban Willamette Valley. Clinton+18.4, Obama+24.3. Solid D
District 5- Remaining Willamette Valley/Coast/Bend. Trump+13.4, McCain+1.9.
Lean/Likely R? (Not sure about this rating)
District 6- Southern and Eastern Oregon. Trump+28.6, McCain+16.4. Solid R

Overall, I'd say that 1, 2, and 4 are D, 6 is R, while 3 and 5 are competitive.

One strange thing is that Trump and Clinton each won 3 of these districts, which does not match with Oregon's political makeup. However, for some reason I get the sense District 3 would solidly held by Schrader and other Democrats.

I would predict this to result in a 4-2 makeup, but with District 5 possibly going Democratic eventually due to Bend trending left.

I'd love any feedback people have.

I don’t think Dems would or should go for this. While they have a good shot at a 4-2 and an outside chance at 5-1 down the line, there’s no reason to make three districts this vulnerable. In a year merely as R as 2016, the delegation becomes a 3-3 split, and that’s not something Dems want to ever risk no matter how big of a wave hits.

Yeah, Democrats would not go with this. While there are novel ideas here, Eastern Oregon is a COI and can’t be split. While Hood River could probably slide, as it’s similar politically to Portland, I doubt the GOP and the courts would let Bend go too. That said, if Bend becomes available, Democrats could switch Bend with parts of titanium-R Douglas County, turn the 4th into a pack and strengthen their chances of holding the district post-DeFazio. And, the NW district is flawed - major parts of it are zooming right, and I doubt Schrader could survive a wave with this district’s dynamic. On the whole, the map had things in it that would upset both parties, and thus is a very unlikely option,

I don't think Salem and Eugene will end up in the same district.   Each city kind of has it's own establishment and won't want to share a district or risk a primary challenge.  

This map is a potential 5-1 map. It leaves 18-county Eastern Oregon intact, while shoring up Schrader, creating a swingy but D-leaning 6th district, and shifting the 4th district marginally left. The borders are also, on the whole, tidier (except the 4th district). The drawbacks of this map are the multiple county splits (which can be remedied at the expense of Democratic numbers in the 4th and 6th districts), the 2nd district eating into the Willamette Valley, and Bonamici's 1st getting slightly less safe. The 4th district is Clinton +1.6, the 5th district is Clinton +11.7, and the 6th district is Clinton +4. Note: this map is population-equal based on 2016 data.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e80bd6fb-a2c4-4a73-90d6-23bd028baa12

This one is pretty good,  making use of Ashland is pretty tough to do, lol.   I hope they move Hood River in with the Willamette districts.  I think the counties east of the Cascades are considered a COI and have to be in the same district.  Which is too bad because I wish the OR dems could make use of Hood River and Bend.

Just clarifying, that’s the 4-2 map. Thanks for the comments, though! I personally think that Ashland is a must-have for Dems, as it’s a natural extension of the 4th and can help counterbalance the more conservative territory the 4th inevitably takes in. It’s even a good idea for the 4th to protrude into Medford IMO, but the issue of that is that it forces a Douglas County split. Nevertheless, the 4th is losing population and trending GOP relative to the state, and once DeFazio’s out it will be a very difficult hold for the Dems.

[OBD]

It really isn't that hard to draw a 5-1 map while leaving all of Eastern Oregon intact. The key is to draw a Eugene-Ashland district and then split the Portland metro 4 ways (basically NW Portland+Beaverton+Hillsboro+NW Coast, SW Portland+Tigard/Tualitan+Yamhill+Polk+Benton+Lincoln, NW Portland+Gresham, and Inner SE Portland+Clackamas+Marion+Linn)

True, the issue is that the Eugene-Ashland district needs to take in a lot of conservative territory, so it's really difficult to shore up without yanking too much liberal territory from the new district and the 5th or reaching into the Bend cookiejar.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/09e2d195-c12d-4cf8-959b-25966f42076f

The above map is my attempt at a PDX split. It DOES mess with the Eastern Oregon COIs, but a lot of the areas it picks out (Hood River, The Dalles, Bend, the Warm Springs reservation) are arguably distinct from the remainder of Eastern Oregon.

District 1: A Clinton +19.5 district. It's pretty similar to the current District 1, but with Tillamook County thrown in and McMinnville/Sherwood/Tigard removed. Still Safe D, and still Bonamici's district.

District 2: A Trump +36.8 district, uniting the remnants of Eastern Oregon with portions of Southern Oregon. It's significantly more Republican than it's predecessor, and Buehler (who was drawn out of the district anyway) would not survive here. Safe R.

District 3: Takes in some redder territory, but is still Clinton +45.1. If Blumenauer was from West Portland (and thus no longer in the district), the primary could have gotten interesting, but he isn't, so the district is his until he retires. Safe D

District 4: A Clinton +10 district, and significantly bluer than its predecessor (though still with large rural areas trending Republican). This district would be a Democratic dream, as it makes DeFazio safe and makes his successor far more likely to be a Democrat. The presence of Bend also counteracts some of the very favorable GOP trends in the rest of the district. Likely D

District 5: Schrader's new district protrudes southwest from the Portland Metro, including some south Portland burbs as well as Salem. It's a Clinton +10.1 district that seems to have favorable trends for Democrats. Thing is, Schrader may be more vulnerable to primary challenge here as there's more blue territory in the district than in the previous iteration.  Lean Schrader, but Likely D

District 6: This is probably the bluest possible iteration of the new district, as this District 6 is Clinton +15.3. It includes Portland proper and urban Clackamas County, but also takes in some very conservative turf in Linn and Marion counties. This district is pretty much Safe D, but could see some competitiveness in a GOP wave situation.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5d428c83-7e6f-406a-91dc-914117e7f236
I'd say this map is roughly as far as Dems can go with a gerrymander without totally baconing the map (on a related note, I think this map's version of cracking Portland is the best way to get a solid 4-1-1 on less extreme gerrymanders - either that or creating a coastal district with a tail into Portland). While it has a lot of county splits and violates the 18-county eastern group, all non-4th D districts are at least Clinton +14 (and are probably trending blue), and the 4th itself is around Clinton +11, which is probably the best Dems can do in the 4th without extending it into Benton County.


https://davesredistricting.org/join/194f35a9-0cbc-4280-97bc-52b1f11da0d9
Here's what a coast-based gerrymander can look like.

[OBD]

On that note, it feels like an optimal time to post this vicious 5-0-1 gerrymander. I believe it has road connections (or will have following precinct splits), and with the exception of the 2nd district all districts are at least Clinton+10. Additionally, the eastern COI is kept whole (though Portland is admittedly cut to all hell).

The 2nd district is Clinton+3 and Brown+1 (2018), and with Bend growing Democrats will have an excellent chance of picking up and/or holding this seat. Also all incumbents have obvious seats to go to (though Blumenauer, and to a lesser degree Bonamici, get significantly redder seats).

[OBD]

Here is my OR map. 4D - 1R - 1 Toss-up

*Based on the 2012-2018 Composite

Just out of curiosity, what's the logic for this map? It cuts a lot of counties and also crosses the Cascades multiple times, which is a big no-no for a nonpartisan map.

[OBD]

I like making redistricting maps for fun and also didn't realize has strict redistricting rules.

Ah ok. It's not written in stone or anything, but generally avoid it unless you want to make a D gerrymander, and even then.

[OBD]

On that note, it feels like an optimal time to post this vicious 5-0-1 gerrymander. I believe it has road connections (or will have following precinct splits), and with the exception of the 2nd district all districts are at least Clinton+10. Additionally, the eastern COI is kept whole (though Portland is admittedly cut to all hell).

The 2nd district is Clinton+3 and Brown+1 (2018), and with Bend growing Democrats will have an excellent chance of picking up and/or holding this seat. Also all incumbents have obvious seats to go to (though Blumenauer, and to a lesser degree Bonamici, get significantly redder seats).

Now that the actual 2020 numbers are in, I'm even more confident that this gerrymander or something similar is the way to go if OR Democrats want to go full scorched earth - Deschutes swung hard to Biden this year, so the 2nd district should be somewhere in the Biden +7-8 range - well within the range for a potential Democratic pickup. While it's difficult to do so, the 1st District actually could probably be cut up a bit more while remaining Safe, and the 6th District (DeFazio) on this map remains the most vulnerable D-held seat.

[OBD]

Here is my take on a map that I've done by "thinking outside the box" and crossing the cascades once, but heading towards rural Douglas county instead of Medford or Ashford. I thought that'd make the map a slight D gerrymander but apparently there is little difference (as long as you keep things clean at least):



OR-01: Clinton+12, D+4
OR-02: Trump+26, R+15
OR-03: Clinton+64, D+23
OR-04: Clinton+3, D+2
OR-05: Trump+1, R+2
OR-06: Clinton+11, D+4

Overall, it seems to me that it will be nearly impossible for Dems to draw a 5-1 map and that they'll need to concede 1 swing district at the very least, or possibly even 2 swing districts or one Safe R district (depends on how things go)

OR-03 is waaaaay too Dem.  That should be brought down to D+15 at most.

Why? It is a compact Portland district? I guess you can move it around slightly but splitting Portland would be too obvious of a gerrymander?

I mean, it's a fine map depending on what your goals are, but ultimately I think Oregon Dems can - and will - draw a more aggressive gerrymander. Also, if OR Democrats do decide to play nice (which your map implies), Washington County probably wouldn't get split - also, road connectivity is required and I'm not sure the lower part of Lane in your 5th district connects to the rest of it.

That said, as an OR Democrat, I'd rather concede a district than risk a 3-3 map (which thanks to trends in Southern Oregon, this map does) - either go for a semi-secure 5-1 or lock in a 4-2 with a Southern Oregon + Linn sink.

[OBD]

On that note, I'm going to float this 5-1 map.


Link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/0c03f33d-33fc-4f36-8089-55830e9ac0b9

Partisanship
1st: Clinton +20.9, D+8 (1 point right of current iteration)
2nd: Trump +26.4, R+15 (6 points right of current iteration)
3rd: Clinton +24.2, D+13 (22 points right of current iteration)
4th: Clinton +14, D+7 (14 points left of current iteration)
5th: Clinton +21.2, D+9 (17 points left of current iteration)
6th: Clinton +12, D+6 (1 point left of state)

This is a very secure 5-1 map that utilizes the coastal district concept - personally, I've found that without a coastal district that's shored up with Portland, a 5-1 is basically impossible (as DeFazio's 4th is forced to pick up much of conservative Southern Oregon, capping it out at Clinton +2-3 max). DeFazio's district, which picks up swingy Polk County and Salem while losing most of its Southern Oregon part, moves significantly to the left, and is likely safe for the decade. Likewise, Schrader's district moves into Portland and becomes Titanium D. The new seat includes the Oregon Coast, the Medford-Grants Pass-Ashland triad, and West Portland (plus St. Johns), and has a partisan makeup roughly equal to that of the state. The new seat is also the most vulnerable, but is extremely unlikely to flip. Meanwhile, Blumenauer's district gets expanded significantly but remains Safe, while Bonamici's district sheds its part of Portland and the Columbia River region, while Rep. Elect Bentz's seat is pushed into uber-red Douglas County.

The map is road-contiguous, and is reasonably compact (even accounting for the coast district). The only bad splits are the three-way cuts of Douglas County, Marion County, and Portland - though all are done pretty neatly with city lines mostly intact, and in Portland's case, along logical lines.

Edit: It's of note that the Douglas County split can be eliminated by 1) having the 2nd bite into Josephine instead or 2) giving the 2nd the 4th's share of Douglas while moving the 6th further into Jackson. Both have the side affect of making the 6th more vulnerable (option 2 far more than option 1), however.

[OBD]

Here is my attempt at a Democratic gerrymander using the Westside GOP to make a sink centered on Linn and Douglas County. It probably isn't legal as others have mentioned but this is my first attempt to share a map on this site so I wanted to see what others thought!

Welcome to the site! Glad to have ya.

Anyway, as a native Oregonian, I have some commentary for this map. While the concept is interesting, it ultimately doesn't make sense for Democrats - it's of note that Eastern Oregon is significantly more Republican than the Southern Oregon portions you put in your sink, so it's a lot more logical to put Eastern Oregon in the R sink. Additionally, while this map is fairly secure, it does have some legality issues - the 18 counties in the east (give or take Hood River) are generally considered a COI (Community Of Interest) and thus can't be split without the risk of a court challenge.  Lastly, I think this district might have some issues with road contiguity, which is required under Oregon law IIRC.

For a future Democratic gerrymander, I'd advise you to try drawing a coastal district that has tails into Portland and (potentially) Southern Oregon - there's a road connection between Curry and Josephine County, and drawing it into Portland allows it to take in some deep-red parts of Southern Oregon while remaining a Clinton +>10 district. It's the only solution I've found that allows for DeFazio's district (Eugene) to get shored up Additionally, with the eastern sink, try to have the district take in as much red territory as possible - Douglas County is usually the best option.

Regardless, this was a pretty good first effort!

[OBD]

Here is my attempt at a Democratic gerrymander using the Westside GOP to make a sink centered on Linn and Douglas County. It probably isn't legal as others have mentioned but this is my first attempt to share a map on this site so I wanted to see what others thought!

Welcome to the site! Glad to have ya.

Anyway, as a native Oregonian, I have some commentary for this map. While the concept is interesting, it ultimately doesn't make sense for Democrats - it's of note that Eastern Oregon is significantly more Republican than the Southern Oregon portions you put in your sink, so it's a lot more logical to put Eastern Oregon in the R sink. Additionally, while this map is fairly secure, it does have some legality issues - the 18 counties in the east (give or take Hood River) are generally considered a COI (Community Of Interest) and thus can't be split without the risk of a court challenge.  Lastly, I think this district might have some issues with road contiguity, which is required under Oregon law IIRC.

For a future Democratic gerrymander, I'd advise you to try drawing a coastal district that has tails into Portland and (potentially) Southern Oregon - there's a road connection between Curry and Josephine County, and drawing it into Portland allows it to take in some deep-red parts of Southern Oregon while remaining a Clinton +>10 district. It's the only solution I've found that allows for DeFazio's district (Eugene) to get shored up Additionally, with the eastern sink, try to have the district take in as much red territory as possible - Douglas County is usually the best option.

Regardless, this was a pretty good first effort!

I should clarify my goal was to do a different gerrymander that brought Bend in as well because of the growing Dem trend there and general changes to its demographics. Does the entire Eastern Oregon need to remain together? It seems like Deschutes County has less in common with many other areas than it used to.

I've also noticed so many maps putting Hood River County with Eastern Oregon, but is that what locals would want in that county? From the one time I visited it felt more connected to Portland than Eastern Oregon.

Yeah, that's a legitimate goal. Personally, I think Bend and Hood River should be able to be moved in with Western Oregon, but as the 18-county COI has been in place for so long I'm not sure if Dems want to break that taboo. Hood River could probably be snatched as it is, as you said, more similar to Portland, but taking out Bend would almost certainly make the Republicans cry foul.

[OBD]

Here is my attempt at a Democratic gerrymander using the Westside GOP to make a sink centered on Linn and Douglas County. It probably isn't legal as others have mentioned but this is my first attempt to share a map on this site so I wanted to see what others thought!

Welcome to the site! Glad to have ya.

Anyway, as a native Oregonian, I have some commentary for this map. While the concept is interesting, it ultimately doesn't make sense for Democrats - it's of note that Eastern Oregon is significantly more Republican than the Southern Oregon portions you put in your sink, so it's a lot more logical to put Eastern Oregon in the R sink. Additionally, while this map is fairly secure, it does have some legality issues - the 18 counties in the east (give or take Hood River) are generally considered a COI (Community Of Interest) and thus can't be split without the risk of a court challenge.  Lastly, I think this district might have some issues with road contiguity, which is required under Oregon law IIRC.

For a future Democratic gerrymander, I'd advise you to try drawing a coastal district that has tails into Portland and (potentially) Southern Oregon - there's a road connection between Curry and Josephine County, and drawing it into Portland allows it to take in some deep-red parts of Southern Oregon while remaining a Clinton +>10 district. It's the only solution I've found that allows for DeFazio's district (Eugene) to get shored up Additionally, with the eastern sink, try to have the district take in as much red territory as possible - Douglas County is usually the best option.

Regardless, this was a pretty good first effort!

I should clarify my goal was to do a different gerrymander that brought Bend in as well because of the growing Dem trend there and general changes to its demographics. Does the entire Eastern Oregon need to remain together? It seems like Deschutes County has less in common with many other areas than it used to.

I've also noticed so many maps putting Hood River County with Eastern Oregon, but is that what locals would want in that county? From the one time I visited it felt more connected to Portland than Eastern Oregon.

Yeah, that's a legitimate goal. Personally, I think Bend and Hood River should be able to be moved in with Western Oregon, but as the 18-county COI has been in place for so long I'm not sure if Dems want to break that taboo. Hood River could probably be snatched as it is, as you said, more similar to Portland, but taking out Bend would almost certainly make the Republicans cry foul.

Does Bend really belong with Western Oregon? That seems questionable to me. It may be more similar demographically/politically to some of the West but it's separated by massive mountains and such. Plus Bend isn't actually that much like any place in Western Oregon, except maybe Medford-Ashland.

I mean in a fair map that probably wouldn't happen. But if it's a Democratic gerrymander, Bend is different enough from the rest of Eastern Oregon that throwing it in with Eugene should be justifiable.

[OBD]

Who said Wenatchee had to go with suburban Seattle?

It shouldn't! But I just use it as an example of how cross-mountain connections can be made without causing a ruckus. I have never heard anyone actually complain about the shape of the 8th district the past ten years, so I don't see why Democrats in Oregon can't go ahead and do cross-mountain districts if they wanted to.

I think it's more justifiable for Washington because Washington has a more balanced population distribution on both sides of the Cascades.

Basically this. As Eastern Oregon has less population than a district it's been historically kept together, and any map that takes more than Hood River out of it would probably get challenged and/or struck down.

[OBD]

There's a much cleaner way to achieve the same 5-1 impact. Putting OR-02 in a blender to rescue a few blue precincts in Southwest Oregon just isn't worth it imo.

Not sure off the top of my head but I'm pretty sure Coos and Curry have better partisanship for D's then Umatilla. Might be smarter to adjust the sink accordingly, unless you plan to sink Eastern Oregon into Portland (which this map makes more convenient).

On a related note, I think OR-242 connects Lane directly to Deschutes via road, though as it's a seasonal road IDK the legality of that under OR law.

[OBD]

There's a much cleaner way to achieve the same 5-1 impact. Putting OR-02 in a blender to rescue a few blue precincts in Southwest Oregon just isn't worth it imo.

Not sure off the top of my head but I'm pretty sure Coos and Curry have better partisanship for D's then Umatilla.

They do, but the point is to make a hard 5-1 gerry without drawing bizarrely shaped districts.

unless you plan to sink Eastern Oregon into Portland (which this map makes more convenient).

Yes.

Still not super-easy because eastern Multnomah is not actually very Democratic, but definitely more geographically convenient.

I mean it's possible to get a Clinton+3 Eastern Oregon district if you take it into Laurelhurst, so getting a safer, neater district should be a cakewalk with the redder half of Eastern Oregon in a sink.

[OBD]

On a related note, I think OR-242 connects Lane directly to Deschutes via road, though as it's a seasonal road IDK the legality of that under OR law.

I thought so too, but Google Maps says it passes through Linn County for half a mile in between those two counties.

I wonder what the district(s) containing Bend and Pendleton in Blairite's map would look like. 

On DRA it looks like OR-242 barely avoids cutting through Linn. Not sure if this affects legality though as it is a seasonal road, and the DRA map could be off.

[OBD]

Also, I checked out Blairite's concept, and early reports aren't favorable. In order to get the 6th district past Clinton+10 without blatantly reaching an arm deep into Portland, the sink has to shift upward while ceding population in the west. This, in turn, makes it more difficult for the 3rd to absorb Republican territory, forcing it down along the coast, and still results in a very tight 5th district. This is what I got: https://davesredistricting.org/join/253fd524-6165-4cb1-94c9-1887713e8538

Especially after the Biden thumping here I'm not sure what counts as Safe, but using Clinton+10 as a standard this concept doesn't seem to work as well as the snake-along-the-coast. Eager to see Blairite's final map though.

[OBD]

Also, I checked out Blairite's concept, and early reports aren't favorable. In order to get the 6th district past Clinton+10 without blatantly reaching an arm deep into Portland, the sink has to shift upward while ceding population in the west. This, in turn, makes it more difficult for the 3rd to absorb Republican territory, forcing it down along the coast, and still results in a very tight 5th district. This is what I got: https://davesredistricting.org/join/253fd524-6165-4cb1-94c9-1887713e8538

Especially after the Biden thumping here I'm not sure what counts as Safe, but using Clinton+10 as a standard this concept doesn't seem to work as well as the snake-along-the-coast. Eager to see Blairite's final map though.

Now who said you could only cross the Cascades twice?

Touche. That works pretty nicely, actually.

[OBD]

Thoughts on this map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d88243e2-a758-4030-8e26-27e40d1144f6

No complaints on my end... won't happen though.

It balances out because my map of Georgia is an unintentional light D mander.

Interesting concept (and obviously bad for Democrats lol). The primary issue with this map, partisan concerns aside, are the county splits - Washington County should be kept near-whole, and the Salem area is a little scuffed. The Willamette split in Portland is pretty justifiable, but you should probably be consistent about it. Also not a fan of putting Hillsboro in with the western district - it's a better fit with the remainder of the West Portland burbs. 

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/591e33e0-670e-4fa8-b256-f755151d3ab8

This, or something like this, should be the baseline for a fair map. It keeps Washington County, Clackamas County, and Portland (city) whole, as well as Lane County as a nice bonus (though this requires the 5th District to cut into The Dalles. Besides the Wasco cut, the only other really objectionable choices are separating Salem and Keizer and (potentially) splitting the North Coast - though one of the two could perhaps be remedied by splitting Yamhill County.

That said, I hope this map or something like it does not get enacted - 5-1 gerrymander all the way!

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d1639ed9-5d5a-4b01-b1ac-6d7563decd9f

Here's a potential compromise map that could emerge from this new agreement. DeFazio (Clinton+14) and Schrader (Clinton+11) are both shored up in a major way, while Republicans get their second seat in Oregon. In a bone to Democrats, who still have some leverage in the process, the 2nd district becomes a 'sleeper' seat - voting for Trump by just single digits in 2020. This map also keeps Portland, Washington County, and the Cascades COI whole.

The 'fairer' alternative is to move the Marion and Clackamas portions of the 6th into the 2nd - that was actually my original plan. This change makes the 2nd and 6th both safely Republican.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3fed2b79-9c14-4390-8fdb-214d2070e9f8

With census data officially out, I took the opportunity to take a crack at a fair map. The population is obviously kind of scuffed - I tried to roughly match the districts with the official 2020 county numbers, making some assumptions along the way. Here's some of my rationales:

- Washington and Yamhill is 1,800 people from being a perfect district under the new numbers (a surprise), so I made that the base of this map. This seat is obviously Safe D and a layup for Bonamici.
- This also allows Portland to be kept whole and Multnomah to only be split twice - the new 3rd becomes a Multnomah-only seat. Gresham, however, became too big to take out of the seat whole, so it gets split (with the bulk ending up in the 5th).
- I took Salem (city) out of the 5th as the population roughly lined up for that to make sense. Unfortunately this means some of Salem's outer locales/Keizer are in the 5th but it's better than splitting the city outright or dropping the 5th into Linn. This new 5th is about three points more Republican, but trends mean it's probably Lean D outside of GOP wave years.
- The 6th takes coastal Lane and Veneta-Junction City for population equality. Clinton wins this district narrowly (and, it moves left in 2020), but this is a pretty good fair fight seat.
- The 4th picks up the rest of Josephine, Ashland, and some scraps in north Jackson. Slightly partisan decision here but it's pretty justifiable (keeps Medford and Center Point whole) and can be seen as a concession to Ds who probably won't like the risks associated with this map. Barely Trump in 2016, moving slightly right from DeFazio's old seat.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3fed2b79-9c14-4390-8fdb-214d2070e9f8

With 2020 data out, I made a different concept of a fair map, moving Hood River into the 5th district with the dominoes falling from there (as a lot of the Mt. Hood/Gorge area is in the 5th, this makes sense from a COI standpoint). In terms of partisanship, this makes the 4th and 5th districts appreciably more favorable to Democrats, with the 6th moving a tad (0.2 points) right. The other main change here is different parts of Lane being put in the 6th - Coburg and areas east are somewhat interchangeable with Florence though. Could see the D-leaning court springing for something like this instead.

Additional note - the original map was pretty population-equal, with the 2nd and 4th needing to exchange about 8,000 people being the worst offense. The population-balanced version has the 4th moving to around Trump+0.7, about half a point right of the original.