2020 Oregon Redistricting

[Nyvin]

I don't think Salem and Eugene will end up in the same district.   Each city kind of has it's own establishment and won't want to share a district or risk a primary challenge. 

This map is a potential 5-1 map. It leaves 18-county Eastern Oregon intact, while shoring up Schrader, creating a swingy but D-leaning 6th district, and shifting the 4th district marginally left. The borders are also, on the whole, tidier (except the 4th district). The drawbacks of this map are the multiple county splits (which can be remedied at the expense of Democratic numbers in the 4th and 6th districts), the 2nd district eating into the Willamette Valley, and Bonamici's 1st getting slightly less safe. The 4th district is Clinton +1.6, the 5th district is Clinton +11.7, and the 6th district is Clinton +4. Note: this map is population-equal based on 2016 data.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/e80bd6fb-a2c4-4a73-90d6-23bd028baa12

This one is pretty good,  making use of Ashland is pretty tough to do, lol.   I hope they move Hood River in with the Willamette districts.  I think the counties east of the Cascades are considered a COI and have to be in the same district.  Which is too bad because I wish the OR dems could make use of Hood River and Bend.

[Nyvin]

I really think 5D-1R is just too risky.   Also it'd fuel the narrative of "Look at the Dem gerrymander in Oregon!"  whenever you bring up Republican gerrymanders elsewhere.  

4D-2R is just the way to go IMO

EDIT- Oops, yeah, I grabbed the wrong link.   I meant the 5-1 map in my comment.

[Nyvin]

This is just a much different take on the Portland Metro mostly -





https://davesredistricting.org/join/0263ae3b-8b65-4f4b-9cb9-cc14ba43457f

Only five county splits.

3D - 1R - 2s

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/eb7e8ebd-cec8-47f4-99cc-d4f835b244aa

Here's a wacky new 4D-2R map with only 6 county splits.   I kinda like the northwest coast district actually.   It even keeps Salem and Eugene in different districts.  

[Nyvin]

Is this a pure Dem free-for-all?  Most Western states have either fully independent commissions or strict rules now.  Is OR an exception?

There are safeguards:

-Districts must be contiguous.
-Districts must "utilize existing geographic or political boundaries."
-Districts should not "divide communities of common interest."
-Districts should "be connected by transportation links."
-Districts "must not be drawn for the purpose of favoring a political party, incumbent or other person.

Otherwise, the Dems can draw whatever they want.

Yeah, I know the Willamette River and Cascade Mountains are two geographic boundaries that have been established that should be respected when possible.

After that county splits seem to be the biggest thing - The current map only has 4.

[Nyvin]

Republicans should deny the Dems a quorum if they try something egregious.  3-1-2 is fair, but a 4-2 is tolerable. 

OK, so you are obviously fine with Democrats doing this in Texas, Georgia, and Florida if Republicans draw unfair lines?

No, I just believe in winning

You kinda surrender having any moral high ground with statements like this.

[Nyvin]

Here is my attempt at a Democratic gerrymander using the Westside GOP to make a sink centered on Linn and Douglas County. It probably isn't legal as others have mentioned but this is my first attempt to share a map on this site so I wanted to see what others thought!

Welcome to the site! Glad to have ya.

Anyway, as a native Oregonian, I have some commentary for this map. While the concept is interesting, it ultimately doesn't make sense for Democrats - it's of note that Eastern Oregon is significantly more Republican than the Southern Oregon portions you put in your sink, so it's a lot more logical to put Eastern Oregon in the R sink. Additionally, while this map is fairly secure, it does have some legality issues - the 18 counties in the east (give or take Hood River) are generally considered a COI (Community Of Interest) and thus can't be split without the risk of a court challenge.  Lastly, I think this district might have some issues with road contiguity, which is required under Oregon law IIRC.

For a future Democratic gerrymander, I'd advise you to try drawing a coastal district that has tails into Portland and (potentially) Southern Oregon - there's a road connection between Curry and Josephine County, and drawing it into Portland allows it to take in some deep-red parts of Southern Oregon while remaining a Clinton +>10 district. It's the only solution I've found that allows for DeFazio's district (Eugene) to get shored up Additionally, with the eastern sink, try to have the district take in as much red territory as possible - Douglas County is usually the best option.

Regardless, this was a pretty good first effort!

I should clarify my goal was to do a different gerrymander that brought Bend in as well because of the growing Dem trend there and general changes to its demographics. Does the entire Eastern Oregon need to remain together? It seems like Deschutes County has less in common with many other areas than it used to.

I've also noticed so many maps putting Hood River County with Eastern Oregon, but is that what locals would want in that county? From the one time I visited it felt more connected to Portland than Eastern Oregon.

The only reason Hood River stayed in OR-2 was because Greg Walden lived there.  Now that he's gone it absolutely can go together with the Portland Metro.

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbb59be-0b30-4b36-b80e-a9cb69ce275c

2020 Results -
OR-1
62.82%   33.62%

OR-2
36.29%   60.89%

OR-3
78.87%   18.22%

OR-4
53.37%   43.45%

OR-5
55.94%   40.89%

OR-6
50.11%   46.41%

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbb59be-0b30-4b36-b80e-a9cb69ce275c

2020 Results -
OR-1
62.82%   33.62%

OR-2
36.29%   60.89%

OR-3
78.87%   18.22%

OR-4
53.37%   43.45%

OR-5
55.94%   40.89%

OR-6
50.11%   46.41%

This feels a bit like a dummymander- what’re the 2016 POTUS results for these? My guess is Trump came within 5 points of carrying 4/6 districts, which is pretty horrendous if OR trends even a little R over the next decade.

I do like the 5 county splits, but this also cuts across the natural boundary of the Cascades which OR has consistently avoided doing, as doing so would trigger a lawsuit that would almost certainly result in a redraw.

In 2016 Trump only won the OR-2 and OR-6

[Nyvin]

Plan B looks more like 3-2-1 than 4-2.   That district 5 wouldn't be safe D, it doesn't have any of Eugene in it.

[Nyvin]

Why the heck would OR Dems agree to Plan B?   They're guaranteed three safe D districts in the Portland metro in any map that's made.   What do they get out of Plan B?

Plan B almost looks like the perfect map for Republicans,  it's a complete loss for OR Dems.

"Compromise" needs to include both parties,  it's not just one side getting everything they want.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/Audentes4/status/1433826548432490502

Just like I thought, they D vote sunk 1 and 3, made 6 as competitive as possible, and made the two southwest districts R Leaning.

It's a Republican gerrymander (Plan B).

[Nyvin]

The House Plan B tactics are pretty simple - Vote sink all the liberal cities and spread everything else out to avoid any lean D seats.   They have a Eugene seat that voted 78% Clinton next to a Trump+4 district.

[Nyvin]

The House Plan B tactics are pretty simple - Vote sink all the liberal cities and spread everything else out to avoid any lean D seats.   They have a Eugene seat that voted 78% Clinton next to a Trump+4 district.

Eugene has some weird population but lets look at a relatively similar county across the nation where population fits better. Asheville. Buncombe county can fit into 3 districts with +3% population variance.
 

How should Buncombe be split then?. This seems fairly natural. Draw 1 district with most of Asheville besides 1 or 2 weirder appendages and then one that encompasses the more exurban areas of the county that still have a moderate influence from Asheville itself. Or should Asheville just be split in 3 for 3 Safe Districts as it is right now.  Lane County doesn't fit as well as Asheville but its an interesting notion nonetheless. Eugene should probably have 4 D seats along with Springfield though. I think I see only 3 there? This results Trump +12 and Trump +0.5 map in 2016 and Trump +5/Biden +8 in 2020. The blue district here is Clinton +60 as welp.

I mean, try to tell me that isn't deliberate -

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They didn't just make any old Eugene-centered district, they went out of their way to capture all the MOST democratic precincts they could find in that district.   

Oh geez, just noticed they split Hood River to make two Trump districts too, lol,  man they didn't let anything by in this map.

[Nyvin]

I mean, try to tell me that isn't deliberate -

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They didn't just make any old Eugene-centered district, they went out of their way to capture all the MOST democratic precincts they could find in that district.  

Oh geez, just noticed they split Hood River to make two Trump districts too, lol,  man they didn't let anything by in this map.

Honestly nothings wrong with the super sink.
3 should however probably be divided with those 2 r districts that crack those parts of Eugene so there can be 4 dem districts

There aren't even any road connections between the eastern and western parts of 3, there aren't any bridges in that part of the river.   The district in the southeast wraps around to the northern part of the city too.   

2 is Clinton+68, 3 is Clinton+31, the district to the east is Trump+4 and the district to the west is Trump+5.   Cracking and Packing at it's finest.

[Nyvin]

Been watching the public testimony during the live redistricting meeting today.   A good majority are speaking in favor of Congressional Map B, mostly that it keeps counties intact and doesn't include districts with Portland.

There hasn't been much discussion on the legislative maps, but the few comments out there seem to be split in number between supporting C and B.

I kinda think the OR Dems were a bit too aggressive with Congressional map A.

[Nyvin]

Been watching the public testimony during the live redistricting meeting today.   A good majority are speaking in favor of Congressional Map B, mostly that it keeps counties intact and doesn't include districts with Portland.

There hasn't been much discussion on the legislative maps, but the few comments out there seem to be split in number between supporting C and B.

I kinda think the OR Dems were a bit too aggressive with Congressional map A.

Where do people go to comment, since I strongly suspect the PUB kooks are the ones raising the most objections, something which will likely slip under the radar of most OR DEMs despite being a +15% DEM State at the Federal Level.

This is the website -

https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/redistricting

I don't see anything about public comments but you can submit your own maps.

Oregon residents can sign up to give testimony at the public hearings too.

[Nyvin]

What a tragedy,  Senate Republicans should really pass a national redistricting reform law to stop these kind of abuses.

[Nyvin]

Maps pass senate and move to House, where the quorum question begins. House to potentially reconvene shortly.

I'm reading there's quorum in the State House, the only question is if the map passes the redistricting committee vote in the House, where the Republicans supposedly have power.   Once it's on the floor vote it's pretty much guaranteed to pass.

[Nyvin]

Democrats hold 37 of 60 seats.  They only need 3 state house GOP members to reach the two thirds requirement to call quorum tomorrow and they adjusted 3 state house seats to be better for the R incumbents.  

I'd imagine what they did is push those three R incumbents backs against the wall and said "You vote for quorum or the SoS draws you out....got it?"  

It's sad they have to be brutal and cut throat like that, but what else are they gonna do?

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1433881526534561799

If this passes I will be so annoyed

Most likely it will pass since independent commissions are very popular with the public literally everywhere, even solid R states.

The public at large completely hates partisan gerrymandering.

[Nyvin]

Nevada Republicans tried to push for redistricting in 2015 when they had a trifecta but never actually went through with it.

[Nyvin]

Schrader might in all honesty prefer the new map.

[Nyvin]

The State House has quorum and they're giving speeches about SB-881A,  the congressional map that GAleftist posted.   The Senate already passed this bill and all that's left now is the floor vote on the House and then the Gov's signature.