2020 Oregon Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Oh the answer to the Ashland/Medford question is put Medford with the Eugene district. The reason for this is simply road contiguity. To reach Ashland you have to go through Medford.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

[lfromnj]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

6 seats.  Also, a fair map now has 1 safe R seat, unless you do something ridiculous, like send the eastern OR seat into downtown Portland.

[lfromnj]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

6 seats.  Also, a fair map now has 1 safe R seat, unless you do something ridiculous, like send the eastern OR seat into downtown Portland.

forgot to type Safe R at the end for the 6th seat.
But yeah I can't see a way to draw 2 Safe R seats in Oregon.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

6 seats.  Also, a fair map now has 1 safe R seat, unless you do something ridiculous, like send the eastern OR seat into downtown Portland.

forgot to type Safe R at the end for the 6th seat.
But yeah I can't see a way to draw 2 Safe R seats in Oregon.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
Here's my fair map.  My map has 2 dem seats, 1 rep seat, and 3 swing seats.  2 lean R 1 leans D.  You could get 2 safe R by switching Linn County and Eugene, as a bipartisan gerrymander which could almost assure a 4-2 delegation.  But my map follows the criteria well and likely something like this would be drawn.  OR naturally has a lot of swing seats, because dems are packed in Portland and reps are packed east of the cascades, both communities which should be kept whole. 

[lfromnj]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

6 seats.  Also, a fair map now has 1 safe R seat, unless you do something ridiculous, like send the eastern OR seat into downtown Portland.

forgot to type Safe R at the end for the 6th seat.
But yeah I can't see a way to draw 2 Safe R seats in Oregon.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
Here's my fair map.  My map has 2 dem seats, 1 rep seat, and 3 swing seats.  2 lean R 1 leans D.  You could get 2 safe R by switching Linn County and Eugene, as a bipartisan gerrymander which could almost assure a 4-2 delegation.  But my map follows the criteria well and likely something like this would be drawn.  OR naturally has a lot of swing seats, because dems are packed in Portland and reps are packed east of the cascades, both communities which should be kept whole.  

Yup my fair map is very close,as I said its impossible for any natural map to have 2 safe R seats. Id even argue your map is slightly D tilting with the Clackamas seat as I feel Washington and Clackamas should each anchor one seat but there isn't a lot of ways to perfectly split them apart and your map is even very compact.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7ef4d47b-a4f6-4627-a0f9-71cb5aebbd82, so is this better? This is 5-0-1 with just one split, I think

Wow, that's one helluva gerrymander. All 6 congressional districts reach into Portland proper.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene, Mid-Willamette Valley), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

6 seats.  Also, a fair map now has 1 safe R seat, unless you do something ridiculous, like send the eastern OR seat into downtown Portland.

forgot to type Safe R at the end for the 6th seat.
But yeah I can't see a way to draw 2 Safe R seats in Oregon.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1170526c-354a-497a-b11c-2840b4436867
but clearly a bipartisan gerrymander

[Nyvin]

Republicans should deny the Dems a quorum if they try something egregious.  3-1-2 is fair, but a 4-2 is tolerable. 

OK, so you are obviously fine with Democrats doing this in Texas, Georgia, and Florida if Republicans draw unfair lines?

No, I just believe in winning

You kinda surrender having any moral high ground with statements like this.

[lfromnj]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

6 seats.  Also, a fair map now has 1 safe R seat, unless you do something ridiculous, like send the eastern OR seat into downtown Portland.

forgot to type Safe R at the end for the 6th seat.
But yeah I can't see a way to draw 2 Safe R seats in Oregon.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1170526c-354a-497a-b11c-2840b4436867
but clearly a bipartisan gerrymander

I think defazio is from springfield btw which is just east of eugene in the green district.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

6 seats.  Also, a fair map now has 1 safe R seat, unless you do something ridiculous, like send the eastern OR seat into downtown Portland.

forgot to type Safe R at the end for the 6th seat.
But yeah I can't see a way to draw 2 Safe R seats in Oregon.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1170526c-354a-497a-b11c-2840b4436867
but clearly a bipartisan gerrymander

I think defazio is from springfield btw which is just east of eugene in the green district.

He is, but he's also probably retiring in 2022.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

My Salem and Eugene districts are tilt R, looks like yours are tossups, did Clinton win either?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

My Salem and Eugene districts are tilt R, looks like yours are tossups, did Clinton win either?

My Eugene district is Clinton by a few hundred votes while my Salem district is 45% Trump to 43% Clinton. In either case, both districts has about 10% of their votes go to (mostly left leaning) third parties. If you look at the 2012-2018 composite, then Salem is 48-45 D and Eugene is 50-43D. In the case of the Eugene-SW OR district specifically, the non-Eugene parts of the district are the fastest shrinking parts of the state while the ultraliberal Eugene-Springfield metro grows at a moderate clip.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

My Salem and Eugene districts are tilt R, looks like yours are tossups, did Clinton win either?

My Eugene district is Clinton by a few hundred votes while my Salem district is 45% Trump to 43% Clinton. In either case, both districts has about 10% of their votes go to (mostly left leaning) third parties. If you look at the 2012-2018 composite, then Salem is 48-45 D and Eugene is 50-43D. In the case of the Eugene-SW OR district specifically, the non-Eugene parts of the district are the fastest shrinking parts of the state while the ultraliberal Eugene-Springfield metro grows at a moderate clip.

Wow our Eugene seats are quite different.  Mine is Trump+5.6, due to taking different parts of Jackson county.  It appears you put Ashland in to make it vote Clinton.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

My Salem and Eugene districts are tilt R, looks like yours are tossups, did Clinton win either?

My Eugene district is Clinton by a few hundred votes while my Salem district is 45% Trump to 43% Clinton. In either case, both districts has about 10% of their votes go to (mostly left leaning) third parties. If you look at the 2012-2018 composite, then Salem is 48-45 D and Eugene is 50-43D. In the case of the Eugene-SW OR district specifically, the non-Eugene parts of the district are the fastest shrinking parts of the state while the ultraliberal Eugene-Springfield metro grows at a moderate clip.

Wow our Eugene seats are quite different.  Mine is Trump+5.6, due to taking different parts of Jackson county.  It appears you put Ashland in to make it vote Clinton.

Yup. Otherwise I'd have to cut Medford:

[lfromnj]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

My Salem and Eugene districts are tilt R, looks like yours are tossups, did Clinton win either?

My Eugene district is Clinton by a few hundred votes while my Salem district is 45% Trump to 43% Clinton. In either case, both districts has about 10% of their votes go to (mostly left leaning) third parties. If you look at the 2012-2018 composite, then Salem is 48-45 D and Eugene is 50-43D. In the case of the Eugene-SW OR district specifically, the non-Eugene parts of the district are the fastest shrinking parts of the state while the ultraliberal Eugene-Springfield metro grows at a moderate clip.

Wow our Eugene seats are quite different.  Mine is Trump+5.6, due to taking different parts of Jackson county.  It appears you put Ashland in to make it vote Clinton.

Yup. Otherwise I'd have to cut Medford:

He didnt cut Medford and your road connection isnt great. Your choice to take ashland is a light D gerrymander. Definitely not inexcusable but I think Idaho is slightly better.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

My Salem and Eugene districts are tilt R, looks like yours are tossups, did Clinton win either?

My Eugene district is Clinton by a few hundred votes while my Salem district is 45% Trump to 43% Clinton. In either case, both districts has about 10% of their votes go to (mostly left leaning) third parties. If you look at the 2012-2018 composite, then Salem is 48-45 D and Eugene is 50-43D. In the case of the Eugene-SW OR district specifically, the non-Eugene parts of the district are the fastest shrinking parts of the state while the ultraliberal Eugene-Springfield metro grows at a moderate clip.

Wow our Eugene seats are quite different.  Mine is Trump+5.6, due to taking different parts of Jackson county.  It appears you put Ashland in to make it vote Clinton.

Yup. Otherwise I'd have to cut Medford:

He didnt cut Medford and your road connection isnt great.

There's no good way to do Jackson. In his case, he cut White City and Central Point. It might honestly be better to move Hood River into a Portland district which allows you to put all of Jackson County, excluding Jacksonville, Rogue River, and Central Point, into the Eastern Oregon district.

[lfromnj]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

OR political geography is bad for Dems, R's would then walk away with 2-3 seats, only 2 safe tho.

How do you draw 2 Safe R ?
A fair in OR probably is 2 Safe D
1 Lean D
1 tossup
1 Lean R.

I can't see anyway to draw 2 Safe R districts.

You're both wrong. A fair OR map has one Safe R district (Eastern OR), two tossup districts (SW OR and Eugene), and three safe D districts (Portland Metro):

It's going to look something like this (leaving PDX whole right now because that's kinda subjective):

https://davesredistricting.org/join/58dbf764-387b-4ab6-bdf1-ac26e3f7bf34
basically my map

Fair enough. Calling the red and purple districts anything but tossups is wrong IMO.

My Salem and Eugene districts are tilt R, looks like yours are tossups, did Clinton win either?

My Eugene district is Clinton by a few hundred votes while my Salem district is 45% Trump to 43% Clinton. In either case, both districts has about 10% of their votes go to (mostly left leaning) third parties. If you look at the 2012-2018 composite, then Salem is 48-45 D and Eugene is 50-43D. In the case of the Eugene-SW OR district specifically, the non-Eugene parts of the district are the fastest shrinking parts of the state while the ultraliberal Eugene-Springfield metro grows at a moderate clip.

Wow our Eugene seats are quite different.  Mine is Trump+5.6, due to taking different parts of Jackson county.  It appears you put Ashland in to make it vote Clinton.

Yup. Otherwise I'd have to cut Medford:

He didnt cut Medford and your road connection isnt great.

There's no good way to do Jackson. In his case, he cut White City and Central Point. It might honestly be better to move Hood River into a Portland district which allows you to put all of Jackson County, excluding Jacksonville, Rogue River, and Central Point, into the Eastern Oregon district.

True , I think either decision is acceptable but I think both of you should be honest that the decision mostly comes down to partisanship, even I think Ashland is probably slightly better with eugene but the rest of Jackson better resembles the rest of the district. Overall the decision is minor from a COI perspective but inherently partisan. Shouldn't have called it a D gerrymander per se, just a D tilting decision while Idahos is R tilting. 

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://www.opb.org/news/article/redistricting-oregon-measure-ballot-2020/

Oregon may end up with a redistricting committee.

Update: ballot measure blocked by SCOTUS so this probably isn't happening.

[OBD]

On that note, it feels like an optimal time to post this vicious 5-0-1 gerrymander. I believe it has road connections (or will have following precinct splits), and with the exception of the 2nd district all districts are at least Clinton+10. Additionally, the eastern COI is kept whole (though Portland is admittedly cut to all hell).

The 2nd district is Clinton+3 and Brown+1 (2018), and with Bend growing Democrats will have an excellent chance of picking up and/or holding this seat. Also all incumbents have obvious seats to go to (though Blumenauer, and to a lesser degree Bonamici, get significantly redder seats).