2020 Oregon Redistricting

[ilikeverin]

Lol at the idea Oregon democrats are awesome . They have completely driven this state into the ground and Oregon republicans with their gross incompetence have basically enabled them to do so .

How is Oregon "into the ground"? Seems to be doing pretty well.

We are literally ranked in the low 40s in high school graduation:

https://www.oregonlive.com/education/2019/01/oregon-generated-second-worst-graduation-rate-in-us-in-2017.html


We rank 49th in relative median income:



https://blog.stewart.com/stewart/2021/05/14/the-richest-and-poorest-states-in-america-before-and-after-comparative-cost-of-living-adjustments/

Oregon ranks #21 in MHI according to this site at $62,800

https://www.careerinfonet.org/rank_median_income.asp?printer=true&soccode=&stfips=47&id=&nodeid=12

Oregon ranks #27 in MHI using the Statistical Atlas numbers at $53.3k:

https://statisticalatlas.com/United-States/Household-Income#figure/state

It looks like the chart you presented adjusts MHI based upon the Cost of Living...

If so that is surely more a factor with the lack of affordable housing in many parts of the state, which quite frankly has very little to do with the Democratic Government in the state and much more to do with banks and building companies priorities, and quite possibly the reality that since the Great Recession there has been very little investment nationally in building new affordable housing.

One could make a strong argument that the high rates of homelessness are also closely correlated with the lack of affordable housing, and again very little to do with the Democratic Gvt in Salem.

The issue is extremely strict zoning laws and democrats inability to ever consider housing supply when crafting housing policy .

House Bill 2001 is, like, completely game-changing, a dramatic expansion of supply-based housing reform, and should be a model for the rest of the country, and was championed by progressive Oregon Democrats.

[Sol]

Lol at the idea Oregon democrats are awesome . They have completely driven this state into the ground and Oregon republicans with their gross incompetence have basically enabled them to do so .

How is Oregon "into the ground"? Seems to be doing pretty well.

We are literally ranked in the low 40s in high school graduation:

https://www.oregonlive.com/education/2019/01/oregon-generated-second-worst-graduation-rate-in-us-in-2017.html


We rank 49th in relative median income:



https://blog.stewart.com/stewart/2021/05/14/the-richest-and-poorest-states-in-america-before-and-after-comparative-cost-of-living-adjustments/

Oregon ranks #21 in MHI according to this site at $62,800

https://www.careerinfonet.org/rank_median_income.asp?printer=true&soccode=&stfips=47&id=&nodeid=12

Oregon ranks #27 in MHI using the Statistical Atlas numbers at $53.3k:

https://statisticalatlas.com/United-States/Household-Income#figure/state

It looks like the chart you presented adjusts MHI based upon the Cost of Living...

If so that is surely more a factor with the lack of affordable housing in many parts of the state, which quite frankly has very little to do with the Democratic Government in the state and much more to do with banks and building companies priorities, and quite possibly the reality that since the Great Recession there has been very little investment nationally in building new affordable housing.

One could make a strong argument that the high rates of homelessness are also closely correlated with the lack of affordable housing, and again very little to do with the Democratic Gvt in Salem.

The issue is extremely strict zoning laws and democrats inability to ever consider housing supply when crafting housing policy .

You say this like Republicans are offering thoughtful reforms to housing and land use law.

There are IMO certain aspects of land use in Oregon which are genuinely revolutionary--thinking in particular of urban growth boundaries, which are really great policy and lay the foundations for excellent transit and high density growth. (And aren't necessarily an issue for affordability if you combine them with thoughtful policy like increased public housing and allowing duplexes, apartment buildings, etc.)

[patzer]

Analysis of what became of the old districts, by population percentage:

1st: 66.9% to the 1st; 33.1% to the 6th
2nd: 76.8% to the 2nd; 20.4% to the 5th; 2.8% to the 3rd
3rd: 79.5% to the 3rd; 11.8% to the 1st; 8.7% to the 5th
4th: 77.9% to the 4th; 15.6% to the 5th; 6.5% to the 2nd
5th: 49.5% to the 6th; 39.1% to the 5th; 7.5% to the 4th; 3.2% to the 1st; 0.8% to the 3rd

And an analysis of where the new districts come from, again by population percentage:

1st: 81.9% from the 1st; 14.2% from the 3rd; 3.9% from the 5th
2nd: 92.5% from the 2nd; 7.5% from the 4th
3rd: 95.7% from the 3rd; 3.4% from the 2nd; 0.9% from the 5th
4th: 91.0% from the 4th; 9.0% from the 5th
5th: 46.8% from the 5th; 24.6% from the 2nd; 18.2% from the 4th; 10.5% from the 3rd
6th: 59.5% from the 5th; 40.5% from the 1st

This is pretty interesting because it indicates that the new 5th is not in fact the natural successor to the old 5th (despite the old 5th’s incumbent Schrader happening to live in the new 5th); and I don’t think it’s at all guaranteed he gets renominated (in either the 5th or 6th) in 2022.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lol at the idea Oregon democrats are awesome . They have completely driven this state into the ground and Oregon republicans with their gross incompetence have basically enabled them to do so .

How is Oregon "into the ground"? Seems to be doing pretty well.

We are literally ranked in the low 40s in high school graduation:

https://www.oregonlive.com/education/2019/01/oregon-generated-second-worst-graduation-rate-in-us-in-2017.html


We rank 49th in relative median income:



https://blog.stewart.com/stewart/2021/05/14/the-richest-and-poorest-states-in-america-before-and-after-comparative-cost-of-living-adjustments/

Oregon ranks #21 in MHI according to this site at $62,800

https://www.careerinfonet.org/rank_median_income.asp?printer=true&soccode=&stfips=47&id=&nodeid=12

Oregon ranks #27 in MHI using the Statistical Atlas numbers at $53.3k:

https://statisticalatlas.com/United-States/Household-Income#figure/state

It looks like the chart you presented adjusts MHI based upon the Cost of Living...

If so that is surely more a factor with the lack of affordable housing in many parts of the state, which quite frankly has very little to do with the Democratic Government in the state and much more to do with banks and building companies priorities, and quite possibly the reality that since the Great Recession there has been very little investment nationally in building new affordable housing.

One could make a strong argument that the high rates of homelessness are also closely correlated with the lack of affordable housing, and again very little to do with the Democratic Gvt in Salem.

The issue is extremely strict zoning laws and democrats inability to ever consider housing supply when crafting housing policy .

You say this like Republicans are offering thoughtful reforms to housing and land use law.

There are IMO certain aspects of land use in Oregon which are genuinely revolutionary--thinking in particular of urban growth boundaries, which are really great policy and lay the foundations for excellent transit and high density growth. (And aren't necessarily an issue for affordability if you combine them with thoughtful policy like increased public housing and allowing duplexes, apartment buildings, etc.)

I am not saying Oregon Republicans are good either and in fact blame them through their incompetence and idiocy for defacto enabling Progressives to have carte blanche to ruin this state.

In fact , one of the people's most responsible for this housing calamity was Republican Governor Tom McCall for the land use laws he implemented.

[_.]

I made a 4R-2D Oregon map.



2018 gubernatorial results.

Damn bro that's crazy

You got a DRA link I want to see the margins on that thing


Also, could we expect a Boebert clone to be elected in the Eastern Oregon seat?
How strong is the current Republican in that seat?
Eastern Oregon has notably gotten even more Republican as a part of the Democratic gerrymander.

Could we expect a rejuvenation in the movement for a Greater Idaho or not?

[NOVA Green]

Analysis of what became of the old districts, by population percentage:

1st: 66.9% to the 1st; 33.1% to the 6th
2nd: 76.8% to the 2nd; 20.4% to the 5th; 2.8% to the 3rd
3rd: 79.5% to the 3rd; 11.8% to the 1st; 8.7% to the 5th
4th: 77.9% to the 4th; 15.6% to the 5th; 6.5% to the 2nd
5th: 49.5% to the 6th; 39.1% to the 5th; 7.5% to the 4th; 3.2% to the 1st; 0.8% to the 3rd

And an analysis of where the new districts come from, again by population percentage:

1st: 81.9% from the 1st; 14.2% from the 3rd; 3.9% from the 5th
2nd: 92.5% from the 2nd; 7.5% from the 4th
3rd: 95.7% from the 3rd; 3.4% from the 2nd; 0.9% from the 5th
4th: 91.0% from the 4th; 9.0% from the 5th
5th: 46.8% from the 5th; 24.6% from the 2nd; 18.2% from the 4th; 10.5% from the 3rd
6th: 59.5% from the 5th; 40.5% from the 1st

This is pretty interesting because it indicates that the new 5th is not in fact the natural successor to the old 5th (despite the old 5th’s incumbent Schrader happening to live in the new 5th); and I don’t think it’s at all guaranteed he gets renominated (in either the 5th or 6th) in 2022.

Yeah--- that's a solid point there.

The biggest shifts from the old CD-05 > CD-06 are the movement of Metro Salem out of the district, including Polk County completely, which basically has West Salem as well as the heavily DEM college Towns of Indepdendence-Monmouth.

The new CD-05 with 24.6% from the old CD-02 is naturally Bend, plus some higher income year round resorts and a few rural ranching / farming precincts thrown in to make it contiguous.

I guess the question would be to what extent would these newer entries to the district possibly look at supporting a challenge to Schrader for having challenged Biden's policy agendas (Which is entirely feasible).

Losing Lincoln and Tillamook Counties probably wouldn't make for that much of an impact, although Lincoln County tends to skew a bit more Progressive DEM mixture of Seniors and WWC residents, and  although Tillamook has a somewhat similar mixture on paper, tends to lean Republican compared to the State at large, although still a competitive county for National elections at times, so thinking is maybe there might slight more of an incumbency bias in the event of a DEM Prim challenge (So probably a wash).

The old CD-04 > CD-05 is pretty much taking all of Linn County and dumping it into the district.

The DEMs are currently pretty anemic in much of Linn County these days, however there are still a significant # of DEM votes in Albany (which not only did Biden win in 2020 but even exceeded Obama '08s narrow win in the City).

As the local labor markets price many workers and students out of living in Corvallis, Albany is facing an increase in more progressive liberal type DEM voters.

Clackamas County--- It's a bit difficult to tell from the maps I'm looking at, but it appears that the precinct boundaries are basically intact between '12 and '22.

This is where I would imagine Schrader would be perhaps most well known over the decades with DEM voters less predisposed to primary him than many other parts of his new district.

Still, he's kind of running against the grain, even in the PDX suburbs of ClackCo, where DEMs have been making rapid gains, especially since '08.

The results of the OR '20 GE demonstrated to a significant extent about how inelastic OR voters are becoming  in down-ballot races, which was I question that I posed related to DeFazio and CD-04.

Sure it could be that without Trump on the ballot a candidate like Schrader might out-perform Biden '20 numbers, but it really seems like by and large most OR voters will stick with either the DEMs or PUBs for Congress and will be much less prone to the types of swings that previously used to be the case.

Going back to the concept of a potential 2022 DEM Primary challenge, interestingly enough you have a few spots in CD-04 (Linn County in particular), where there are a significant number of DINOs who did vote in the 2020 DEM Primaries for "Republican Candidates" running on a DEM ballot....

[I’m not Stu]

I made a 4R-2D Oregon map.

2018 gubernatorial results.

Damn bro that's crazy

You got a DRA link I want to see the margins on that thing


Also, could we expect a Boebert clone to be elected in the Eastern Oregon seat?
How strong is the current Republican in that seat?
Eastern Oregon has notably gotten even more Republican as a part of the Democratic gerrymander.

Could we expect a rejuvenation in the movement for a Greater Idaho or not?

Link for map with 4-2 Republican majority. https://davesredistricting.org/join/27074f29-a423-466d-bda1-f2b8ae4c73d4

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Does anyone know if the new map's available to view in DRA anywhere?

Here. I wish DRA had 2020 data for Oregon.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/6aac3f95-4660-4fbf-b7e0-3dee7aa517d5

I would've preferred keeping all of urbanized Washington County within District #1, and all of Portland proper east of the Willamette River within District #3. But gerrymandering concerns aside, idk if that would work given population shifts within Metro PDX. I didn't notice this at first, but the southernmost parts of Portland proper next to Lake Oswego and Milwaukie are part of District #5.

[patzer]

Clackamas County--- It's a bit difficult to tell from the maps I'm looking at, but it appears that the precinct boundaries are basically intact between '12 and '22.

fwiw here's a map I made showing the border changes in the Portland metro. Red borders = new ones

[I’m not Stu]

Where does Schrader run?

[S019]

Where does Schrader run?

Likely the competitive seat, also less chance of him getting primaried there.

[Skill and Chance]

So there's going to be a commission on the ballot in 2022 with the authority to redraw in 2024 if the commission amendment wins?

[Minnesota Mike]

So there's going to be a commission on the ballot in 2022 with the authority to redraw in 2024 if the commission amendment wins?

I think there will be an attempt to gather enough signatures to put a commission on the ballot. May be for 2024 or may be for 2032. It would not surprise me if the legislature also puts a commission on the ballot for 2032 in an attempt to short circuit a 2024 plan. 

[I’m not Stu]

Where does Schrader run?

Likely the competitive seat, also less chance of him getting primaried there.

Is OR-05 more competitive? Do Oregon Democrats hate him?

[BoiseBoy]

DRA has added 2020 Presidential data so here is how all the districts voted on the new map.



OR-01: Biden 67.8, Trump 28.9 (D+38.9) (+10 more D from old lines)
OR-02: Trump 60.7, Biden 36.4 (R+24.3) (+10.8 more R from old lines)
OR-03: Biden 72.0, Trump 25.0 (D+47.0) (+3.6 more R from old lines)
OR-04: Biden 54.7, Trump 42.0 (D+12.7) (+8.8 more D from old lines)
OR-05: Biden 52.8, Trump 44.0 (D+8.8) (+0.8 more R from old lines)
OR-06: Biden 54.8, Trump 41.7 (D+13.1)

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

DRA has added 2020 Presidential data so here is how all the districts voted on the new map.



OR-01: Biden 67.8, Trump 28.9 (D+38.9) (+10 more D from 2016)
OR-02: Trump 60.7, Biden 36.4 (R+24.3) (+10.8 more R from 2016)
OR-03: Biden 72.0, Trump 25.0 (D+47.0) (+3.6 more R from 2016)
OR-04: Biden 54.7, Trump 42.0 (D+12.7) (+8.8 more D from 2016)
OR-05: Biden 52.8, Trump 44.0 (D+8.8) (+0.8 more R from 2016)
OR-06: Biden 54.8, Trump 41.7 (D+13.1)

It’d be nice to see what the 2016 results looked like on the upcoming 2022 district map. I highly doubt either the current or the upcoming OR-1 swung that much from HRC to Biden.

[BoiseBoy]

DRA has added 2020 Presidential data so here is how all the districts voted on the new map.



OR-01: Biden 67.8, Trump 28.9 (D+38.9) (+10 more D from 2016)
OR-02: Trump 60.7, Biden 36.4 (R+24.3) (+10.8 more R from 2016)
OR-03: Biden 72.0, Trump 25.0 (D+47.0) (+3.6 more R from 2016)
OR-04: Biden 54.7, Trump 42.0 (D+12.7) (+8.8 more D from 2016)
OR-05: Biden 52.8, Trump 44.0 (D+8.8) (+0.8 more R from 2016)
OR-06: Biden 54.8, Trump 41.7 (D+13.1)

It’d be nice to see what the 2016 results looked like on the upcoming 2022 district map. I highly doubt either the current or the upcoming OR-1 swung that much from HRC to Biden.

OR-01: Clinton 60.7, Trump 28.1 (D+32.6) (+10.7 more D from old lines)
OR-02: Trump 59.0, Clinton 31.3 (R+27.7) (+8.3 more R from old lines)
OR-03: Clinton 66.6, Trump 23.4 (D+43.2) (+3.5 more R from old lines)
OR-04: Clinton 48.5, Trump 40.5 (D+8.0) (+7.9 more D from old lines)
OR-05: Clinton 45.9, Trump 43.0 (D+2.9) (+1.2 more R from old lines)
OR-06: Clinton 47.4, Trump 40.7 (D+6.7)

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here's a 6-0 D OR gerrymander. Basically all OR seats are safe Dem.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/ebb8b9d0-e203-48b4-b271-1085df4304c6

[patzer]

Here's a 6-0 D OR gerrymander. Basically all OR seats are safe Dem.

Here's my 6-0 gerrymander. The 2nd here went from Trump +0.2 in 2016 to Biden +6 in 2020, so should be safe if Bend continues to go left but would be at risk if it turns out the 2020 results were more of an aberration than a trend.

[I’m not Stu]

Updated my map to 3-3 since 2020 data was added because 4R-2D can't be done without a dummymander.

[NOVA Green]

FYI:

Just added a post in the Congressional Election board now that we have our first candidate who appears to be running in the new OR CD-06.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=465985.msg8282032#msg8282032

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/10/democratic-lawmaker-andrea-salinas-plans-to-run-for-oregons-new-6th-congressional-seat.html

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Lol at the idea Oregon democrats are awesome . They have completely driven this state into the ground and Oregon republicans with their gross incompetence have basically enabled them to do so .

How is Oregon "into the ground"? Seems to be doing pretty well.

We are literally ranked in the low 40s in high school graduation:

https://www.oregonlive.com/education/2019/01/oregon-generated-second-worst-graduation-rate-in-us-in-2017.html


We rank 49th in relative median income:



https://blog.stewart.com/stewart/2021/05/14/the-richest-and-poorest-states-in-america-before-and-after-comparative-cost-of-living-adjustments/

Oregon ranks #21 in MHI according to this site at $62,800

https://www.careerinfonet.org/rank_median_income.asp?printer=true&soccode=&stfips=47&id=&nodeid=12

Oregon ranks #27 in MHI using the Statistical Atlas numbers at $53.3k:

https://statisticalatlas.com/United-States/Household-Income#figure/state

It looks like the chart you presented adjusts MHI based upon the Cost of Living...

If so that is surely more a factor with the lack of affordable housing in many parts of the state, which quite frankly has very little to do with the Democratic Government in the state and much more to do with banks and building companies priorities, and quite possibly the reality that since the Great Recession there has been very little investment nationally in building new affordable housing.

One could make a strong argument that the high rates of homelessness are also closely correlated with the lack of affordable housing, and again very little to do with the Democratic Gvt in Salem.

The issue is extremely strict zoning laws and democrats inability to ever consider housing supply when crafting housing policy .

You say this like Republicans are offering thoughtful reforms to housing and land use law.

There are IMO certain aspects of land use in Oregon which are genuinely revolutionary--thinking in particular of urban growth boundaries, which are really great policy and lay the foundations for excellent transit and high density growth. (And aren't necessarily an issue for affordability if you combine them with thoughtful policy like increased public housing and allowing duplexes, apartment buildings, etc.)

I am not saying Oregon Republicans are good either and in fact blame them through their incompetence and idiocy for defacto enabling Progressives to have carte blanche to ruin this state.

In fact , one of the people's most responsible for this housing calamity was Republican Governor Tom McCall for the land use laws he implemented.

OSR I think the reason Dems like OR D's isn't because of 'awesome' policy implementation but rather the hyper-partisan Congressional map they drew.

[BoiseBoy]

Oregon Republicans have sued to block the new maps, declaring them unconstitutional.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/576330-oregon-republicans-sue-to-block-democrats-redistricting-plan

[TJ in Oregon]

Oregon Republicans have sued to block the new maps, declaring them unconstitutional.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/576330-oregon-republicans-sue-to-block-democrats-redistricting-plan

The map is obviously a gerrymander and completely undefensible on any neutral grounds. The question is whether anyone cares and whether the state law's vague platitudes against partisan gerrymandering mean anything. I wouldn't hold my breath.

[Non Swing Voter]

Here's a 6-0 D OR gerrymander. Basically all OR seats are safe Dem.

Here's my 6-0 gerrymander. The 2nd here went from Trump +0.2 in 2016 to Biden +6 in 2020, so should be safe if Bend continues to go left but would be at risk if it turns out the 2020 results were more of an aberration than a trend.

This should have been the map!