2020 Oregon Redistricting

[politicallefty]

No it isn't, now it will be harder to beat Schrader and get an actual progressive in the seat

I'd just settle for an actual Democrat in that seat.

[Antonio the Sixth]

4-1-1 is reasonable given Oregon's geography. It's a dumb hill to die on when Democrats have already steamrolled Republicans in every conceivable way.

[S019]

As we saw earlier in the thread all D seats other than Schrader were Clinton+7 or more, that's probably Safe D, Schrader was around Clinton+3/Biden+7 that's Lean/Likely D territory, and him being a strong incumbent should probably help D chances. Imo this is still a 5-1 map, just a weaker 5-1, 4-1-1 is doing a lot of work here.

[Nyvin]

Schrader might in all honesty prefer the new map.

[politicallefty]

Schrader might in all honesty prefer the new map.

That's the problem. I wouldn't even vote for him against a real Republican.

[Oryxslayer]

No quorum at the moment.

[Gass3268]

Word is the SOS is planning on gutting all the seats for the Republican leadership.

https://twitter.com/lillianbelle2/status/1441863522195939329?s=21

[Mr.Phips]

No quorum at the moment.

So the Dem Secretary of State draws an aggressive Dem gerrymander of the legislature and the all Dem state Supreme Court now likely picks a congressional map resembling the first Dem proposal.  I’m not sure what the logic is here for Republicans.

[Oryxslayer]

No quorum at the moment.

So the Dem Secretary of State draws an aggressive Dem gerrymander of the legislature and the all Dem state Supreme Court now likely picks a congressional map resembling the first Dem proposal.  I’m not sure what the logic is here for Republicans.

I guess reject the first proposal to see if a second gets any better, before the third gets much worse.

[GALeftist]

Welp, I hope the Republicans enjoyed being able to walk out, because I suspect that era of Oregon politics will be over once Fagan is done with the map.

I'm honestly pretty surprised that they'd trade any remnants of power they have in the state for a map which will probably be 4-1-1 as opposed to 5-1, especially given that the leadership is all in areas which would probably get nuked under a Dem gerrymander

[lfromnj]

https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2021-09-21/tensions-rise-during-oregon-redistricting-process

But if congressional maps are not passed by Sept. 27, the task will fall to a panel of five retired judges appointed by the Oregon Supreme Court.

Note about redistricting process. I think its one from each current CD as well but can't find anything about that.


I guess the retired judges could just be hackish enough to adopt the legislative proposal, but if they decide to start afresh, then it could be trickier for Democrats. The relatively hackish PA map still doesn't do stuff like split Bucks county. Similar logic follows that Eastern Oregon would not be split. If they do follow that basic principle then Democrats could be in trouble as the rest of the map would be relatively limited in how favorable it could be.


Not sure which way they go myself.

[Mr.Phips]

Dems should do this in Texas now.

[Devils30]

Dems should do this in Texas now.

No, this garbage is the problem. I don't think Oregon courts (mostly Dem judges) will look favorably. I expect 5-1 map.

[NOVA Green]

So as of 3 PM Pacific Time, still no quorum in the State House and six members shy.

The Democrats’ compromise plan was not, however, enough of a compromise in the eyes of House Republicans, who blasted it for continuing to split voters in the Democrat-dominated Portland area into four different districts. Nearly all Republicans in the House who were not excused from Saturday’s session refused to show up for a procedural floor vote to advance the new map. Rep. Ron Noble, R-Carlton, did attend. As of 3 p.m., that left the House six members shy of a quorum and unable to vote.

....

“There’s been a lot of hard work for the last 24 hours,” House Speaker Tina Kotek, a Portland Democrat, said from the House dais shortly after 9 a.m. “House and Senate leadership for both parties have worked hard to craft a compromise ... I want to praise everyone who’s been working in the last 24 hours to come to a fair compromise that hopefully we can take up today.”

....

The district on that new map that appears it would have a nearly even Republican-Democratic match-up is currently represented by Rep. Kurt Schrader, a Clackamas County Democrat now in his seventh term in Congress. A moderate Democrat by national standards, he has lived in the district for decades.

The heavily redrawn district would, if the plan were to be approved, include fast-growing Bend. Projected Democratic growth there could cause the district to become bluer over the coming decade.

....

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/09/oregon-democrats-have-drafted-a-less-democrat-tilted-congressional-map-hope-to-get-republicans-on-board-for-votes-today.html

[I’m not Stu]

I made a 4R-2D Oregon map.



2018 gubernatorial results.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/dirquez/status/1442525142563778566?s=20

I know Texas is getting all the attention, but it looks like the Oregon GOP blinked first. Someone must have shown them what could happen if they let the SoS go wild on the legislative lines.

[GALeftist]

Hearing it will be this map (thanks @LillianBelle2 on Twitter), with DeFazio shored up bigly and the new seat being pretty reliable Dem as well. Downside is I think Schrader's district (which takes in Bend) shifts right a couple points, but it's trending Dem, so I think we might still have a chance of primarying him even under this map.

[I’m not Stu]

Is Schrader an unpopular figure in his district?

[GALeftist]

Is Schrader an unpopular figure in his district?

Not super popular or unpopular afaik (he definitely doesn't have as strong a brand as DeFazio next door), but he has become unpopular with at least some of the Democratic base due to constantly threatening to thwart Biden's agenda in the House.

[BoiseBoy]

So just to clarify, this map is most likely the final map? From what I've read the House Redistricting Committee has passed it and there will be a full House vote at 1 PM Pacific?

[Skill and Chance]

Is Schrader an unpopular figure in his district?

Not super popular or unpopular afaik (he definitely doesn't have as strong a brand as DeFazio next door), but he has become unpopular with at least some of the Democratic base due to constantly threatening to thwart Biden's agenda in the House.

The most significant thing they did with this map was insulate DeFazio's seat from the relentless WWC R trend.  He goes from Biden+4 to Biden+14.

Schrader is used to having a swing district.  He will be in a considerably better position on this map than he was in the Obama era. 

[JerryArkansas]

So just to clarify, this map is most likely the final map? From what I've read the House Redistricting Committee has passed it and there will be a full House vote at 1 PM Pacific?

Unless shenanigans are pulled between now and then the house should pass this in current form and Oregon will have the first official maps.

[Skill and Chance]

So far Dems are beating redistricting expectations almost everywhere except VA and maybe CO pending the final map there.

Also the GOP is way more focused on state legislatures than congressional seats, which probably makes sense given that they were able to draw maps that held certain legislatures for the decade despite mostly losing statewide, while they lost the US House anyway when they finally came up against an R presidential midterm.

[Minnesota Mike]

So just to clarify, this map is most likely the final map? From what I've read the House Redistricting Committee has passed it and there will be a full House vote at 1 PM Pacific?

Unless shenanigans are pulled between now and then the house should pass this in current form and Oregon will have the first official maps.

It will have to go back to the senate and then the governor but I think that is just a formality.

[JerryArkansas]

So just to clarify, this map is most likely the final map? From what I've read the House Redistricting Committee has passed it and there will be a full House vote at 1 PM Pacific?

Unless shenanigans are pulled between now and then the house should pass this in current form and Oregon will have the first official maps.

It will have to go back to the senate and then the governor but I think that is just a formality.

That has to happen today so I expect it is.