2020 Oregon Redistricting
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 02:12:44 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  2020 Oregon Redistricting
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 9 10 11 12 13 [14] 15 16 17 18
Author Topic: 2020 Oregon Redistricting  (Read 21284 times)
TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,952
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.13, S: 6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #325 on: September 22, 2021, 05:07:58 PM »

If the OR GOP is in fact camping in Idaho right now, this will be the first useful thing they've done in the 3.5 years I've lived here.

just curious: you don't consider any of their previous camping trips to have been useful?

No. They blocked a bill that didn't have enough votes to pass anyways. They have no plan whatsoever to improve the state and no power to implement one anyway. At best, the Oregon GOP serves the purpose of sitting on a slowly sinking sandcastle, trying to quarantine Portland and maintain the investment value of its supporters.
Logged
TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,952
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.13, S: 6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #326 on: September 22, 2021, 05:13:19 PM »

I want to take a moment to appreciate the brilliance of Tina Kotek here.

Her grand bargain immediately put an end to all Republican obstruction. Oregon's legislature had its first normal session in three years, able to freely pass bills for the first time since 2018.

Regardless of what actually happens today, one thing is clear: the Democrats got literally everything they wanted, and in return gave up nothing.

The Oregon Republicans completely disarmed themselves yet have absolutely nothing to show for it.

Savage? absolutely. Scummy? probably. Worth it? definitely. IT'S THE ART OF THE DEAL

(also it's worth noting, referendums will certainly pass in 2022 to disarm the entire GOP obstruction arsenal, they will soon find themselves powerless regardless of the precise outcome of the legislative maps)

Oregon Democrats have absolutely destroyed this state and no are gonna have free reign to further destroy it. Republicans shouldnt have caved

None of it really matters, the Oregon Dems will do whatever they want here anyways. The only relevant question is what our congressional delegation looks like. If the OR GOP is in fact camping in Idaho right now, this will be the first useful thing they've done in the 3.5 years I've lived here. It may also be the last.

What's the endgame here exactly? There has to be a congressional map approved in time for 2022. I assume the SC would draw it if the legislature can't pass one?

The endgame is that the retired judges who would end up drawing the map are probably not going to draw the ridiculous gerrymander the Democrats in the state legislature proposed that, among other things, puts Bend in a Portland seat:



Source: OPB
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #327 on: September 22, 2021, 05:44:38 PM »

I want to take a moment to appreciate the brilliance of Tina Kotek here.

Her grand bargain immediately put an end to all Republican obstruction. Oregon's legislature had its first normal session in three years, able to freely pass bills for the first time since 2018.

Regardless of what actually happens today, one thing is clear: the Democrats got literally everything they wanted, and in return gave up nothing.

The Oregon Republicans completely disarmed themselves yet have absolutely nothing to show for it.

Savage? absolutely. Scummy? probably. Worth it? definitely. IT'S THE ART OF THE DEAL

(also it's worth noting, referendums will certainly pass in 2022 to disarm the entire GOP obstruction arsenal, they will soon find themselves powerless regardless of the precise outcome of the legislative maps)

Oregon Democrats have absolutely destroyed this state and no are gonna have free reign to further destroy it. Republicans shouldnt have caved

None of it really matters, the Oregon Dems will do whatever they want here anyways. The only relevant question is what our congressional delegation looks like. If the OR GOP is in fact camping in Idaho right now, this will be the first useful thing they've done in the 3.5 years I've lived here. It may also be the last.

What's the endgame here exactly? There has to be a congressional map approved in time for 2022. I assume the SC would draw it if the legislature can't pass one?

The endgame is that the retired judges who would end up drawing the map are probably not going to draw the ridiculous gerrymander the Democrats in the state legislature proposed that, among other things, puts Bend in a Portland seat:



Source: OPB

At the same time, choosing that endgame means giving Progressive Shemia Fagan authority over the Leg lines. She's not gonna draw a nicer map, which means more Republicans could lose their seats than the few currently reapportioned to the Portland region. It's a prisoners dilemma hostage crisis and its the legislators who have to decide if their sacrifices are worth risking a bunch of Dem judges might draw something nicer. 
Logged
Stuart98
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,783
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -5.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #328 on: September 22, 2021, 06:26:15 PM »

Oregon Republicans should count themselves lucky that they aren't getting this map instead:
Logged
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,253
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #329 on: September 22, 2021, 08:56:11 PM »

I want to take a moment to appreciate the brilliance of Tina Kotek here.

Her grand bargain immediately put an end to all Republican obstruction. Oregon's legislature had its first normal session in three years, able to freely pass bills for the first time since 2018.

Regardless of what actually happens today, one thing is clear: the Democrats got literally everything they wanted, and in return gave up nothing.

The Oregon Republicans completely disarmed themselves yet have absolutely nothing to show for it.

Savage? absolutely. Scummy? probably. Worth it? definitely. IT'S THE ART OF THE DEAL

(also it's worth noting, referendums will certainly pass in 2022 to disarm the entire GOP obstruction arsenal, they will soon find themselves powerless regardless of the precise outcome of the legislative maps)

Oregon Democrats have absolutely destroyed this state and no are gonna have free reign to further destroy it. Republicans shouldnt have caved

None of it really matters, the Oregon Dems will do whatever they want here anyways. The only relevant question is what our congressional delegation looks like. If the OR GOP is in fact camping in Idaho right now, this will be the first useful thing they've done in the 3.5 years I've lived here. It may also be the last.

What's the endgame here exactly? There has to be a congressional map approved in time for 2022. I assume the SC would draw it if the legislature can't pass one?

The endgame is that the retired judges who would end up drawing the map are probably not going to draw the ridiculous gerrymander the Democrats in the state legislature proposed that, among other things, puts Bend in a Portland seat:



Source: OPB

At the same time, choosing that endgame means giving Progressive Shemia Fagan authority over the Leg lines. She's not gonna draw a nicer map, which means more Republicans could lose their seats than the few currently reapportioned to the Portland region. It's a prisoners dilemma hostage crisis and its the legislators who have to decide if their sacrifices are worth risking a bunch of Dem judges might draw something nicer. 

Yeah this, the real danger for Democrats here was following through on the deal and ending up with mostly a fair map. Now that that is out of the way the options seem to be 5-1 by the legislature or a D court map, likely drawn by consultants who will pair COI in a way that favors Democrats, the end result of that should be 4-2 or 4-1-1, It's really unclear if this is worth the fight for the GOP for one House seat and likely a worse legislative map.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,963
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #330 on: September 22, 2021, 11:53:33 PM »

Yeah, getting a mostly-fair map with 4 solidly Democratic seats would be a good outcome on all fronts, honestly (and tbh, if Schrader could be triaged into a likely-R seat I wouldn't exactly shed tears,  this guy).

The quorum rules still need to go though.
Logged
GALeftist
sansymcsansface
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #331 on: September 23, 2021, 01:07:49 PM »



If this passes I will be so annoyed
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #332 on: September 23, 2021, 01:15:21 PM »



If this passes I will be so annoyed

Most likely it will pass since independent commissions are very popular with the public literally everywhere, even solid R states.

The public at large completely hates partisan gerrymandering.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,217


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #333 on: September 23, 2021, 01:32:50 PM »

The commision still has to get enough signatures to get on ballot.
Logged
Stuart98
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,783
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -5.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #334 on: September 23, 2021, 01:33:36 PM »


If this passes I will be so annoyed

Most likely it will pass since independent commissions are very popular with the public literally everywhere, even solid R states.

The public at large completely hates partisan gerrymandering.
Democratic leadership probably needs to start sending clear signals to their voters that it's counterproductive to push for more state-run commissions. We're probably maxed out in terms of where we can get them in Republican run states and with the existing commission states already skewing Democratic any more commissions will lead to further unilateral disarmament. Messaging needs to be that gerrymandering will continue until we get nationally mandated fair redistricting (and whatever that looks like, it should probably make more use of existing federal bureaucratic structures rather than the gameable state-level political appointee commissions that we're already seeing fail in several states).
Logged
OBD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,575
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #335 on: September 23, 2021, 01:38:16 PM »



If this passes I will be so annoyed
Excited to cast my first vote against the Republican redistricting steal!
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,217


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #336 on: September 23, 2021, 02:08:54 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2021, 02:22:58 PM by lfromnj »

If the measure does look it will make to ballot, Democrats should probably draw up their own measure based on a partisan "fairness" measure rather than competiveness . I wouldn't worry till it gets on ballot itself though or is very close.
Logged
Stuart98
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,783
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -5.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #337 on: September 23, 2021, 02:14:43 PM »

If the measure does look it will make to ballot, Democrats should probably draw up their own measure based on a partisan "fairness" measure rather than competiveness
Competitiveness usually favors Democrats in D-trending states, partisan fairness would be more likely to favor Republicans.
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,822
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #338 on: September 24, 2021, 03:02:34 AM »

Does Oregon allow mid-decade redistricting? If a sub-optimal congressional map ends up drawn by the courts, couldn't they shore up a solid 5-1 map in time for 2024?
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #339 on: September 24, 2021, 09:17:16 AM »

Does Oregon allow mid-decade redistricting? If a sub-optimal congressional map ends up drawn by the courts, couldn't they shore up a solid 5-1 map in time for 2024?

Yes, Oregon allows it. But this is the type of thing not exactly utilized out of custom. Several D-trending states in the south last decade could have done mid-decade to make everything safer, but only GA did and they only changed the lines of I believe three state house districts... incredibly marginally.
Logged
ChineseConservative
Rookie
**
Posts: 71
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #340 on: September 24, 2021, 11:26:36 AM »

Does Oregon allow mid-decade redistricting? If a sub-optimal congressional map ends up drawn by the courts, couldn't they shore up a solid 5-1 map in time for 2024?

I suppose by that logic if the Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota Governor mansions flip next year then Republicans could hypothetically redraw a strong 5-3 Minnesota, 6-2 Wisconsin, 11-6 Pennsylvania map quite easily. If a single legislature seat in Nebraska flips I guess its 3-0 there as well? The downside risk for the democrats is too large to even consider this hypothetical as anyone would rather take the potential to mid decade gerrymander 34 seats in those combined states as opposed to a merely 6 in Oregon.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #341 on: September 24, 2021, 11:35:58 AM »

Does Oregon allow mid-decade redistricting? If a sub-optimal congressional map ends up drawn by the courts, couldn't they shore up a solid 5-1 map in time for 2024?

I suppose by that logic if the Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota Governor mansions flip next year then Republicans could hypothetically redraw a strong 5-3 Minnesota, 6-2 Wisconsin, 11-6 Pennsylvania map quite easily. If a single legislature seat in Nebraska flips I guess its 3-0 there as well? The downside risk for the democrats is too large to even consider this hypothetical as anyone would rather take the potential to mid decade gerrymander 34 seats in those combined states as opposed to a merely 6 in Oregon.

Can't in Wisconsin. State Constitution only allows it to happen once a cycle.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #342 on: September 24, 2021, 11:36:51 AM »

Does Oregon allow mid-decade redistricting? If a sub-optimal congressional map ends up drawn by the courts, couldn't they shore up a solid 5-1 map in time for 2024?

I suppose by that logic if the Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota Governor mansions flip next year then Republicans could hypothetically redraw a strong 5-3 Minnesota, 6-2 Wisconsin, 11-6 Pennsylvania map quite easily. If a single legislature seat in Nebraska flips I guess its 3-0 there as well? The downside risk for the democrats is too large to even consider this hypothetical as anyone would rather take the potential to mid decade gerrymander 34 seats in those combined states as opposed to a merely 6 in Oregon.

Can't in Wisconsin. State Constitution only allows it to happen once a cycle.

And the Dem controlled Supreme Courts in MN and PA would almost certainly block such a move by Republicans in those states.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #343 on: September 24, 2021, 11:47:52 AM »

Nevada Republicans tried to push for redistricting in 2015 when they had a trifecta but never actually went through with it.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #344 on: September 24, 2021, 06:17:54 PM »

One nice thing about the map is that it moves me into CD-05 vs CD-04 providing an opportunity to primary Schrader, assuming we can get a solid Center-Left DEM to run   Smiley
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,417
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #345 on: September 24, 2021, 10:26:07 PM »

Looks like DEMs won't be able to pass the map on Saturday, regardless of "nude Republican hiking and camping trips to Idaho".

Three House DEMs are already excused from voting....

My Oregonian subscription is running crazy amok so can't even quote a brief excerpt, but still I thought some of y'all might be interested, regardless of the alleged "COVID-19" infestation.



https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/09/oregon-house-democrats-may-struggle-to-hold-votes-saturday-with-many-members-already-excused.html
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #346 on: September 25, 2021, 10:40:08 AM »



A drafted Compromise map that could be voted on today, despite every indication from the leadership that 5-1 is non-negotiable. Schrader's seat is much less dem here, and also much more unwieldy.
Logged
lfromnj
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,217


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #347 on: September 25, 2021, 10:59:18 AM »

It still seems around Biden +9?

Can't tell exactly. Probably a face saving measure if I had to guess. Along with that I wouldn't be shocked if Schrader wanted this.
Logged
JerryArkansas
jerryarkansas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,536
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #348 on: September 25, 2021, 11:03:47 AM »

It still seems around Biden +9?

Can't tell exactly. Probably a face saving measure if I had to guess. Along with that I wouldn't be shocked if Schrader wanted this.
Its Biden +7, and all democratic districts seem to have voted Democratic in 2016 too.

Edit here's the numbers.  It was D+3 in 2016 at the worst so it is still a decent map.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,237
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #349 on: September 25, 2021, 11:09:59 AM »

No it isn't, now it will be harder to beat Schrader and get an actual progressive in the seat
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 9 10 11 12 13 [14] 15 16 17 18  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 11 queries.