2020 Oregon Redistricting

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I redid the 3rd, 1st, and 6th. Now the new CD is D+10, pretty much safe D.
I adopted suggestion 1.
I still prefer cutting into Multnomah twice over splitting Washington so I decided instead to feed the 6th CD into western Downtown Portland.

"5. Having the 5th cut into Springfield is better than it crossing the river in Lane." That something I cannot do. I didn't hand-pick precincts in Lane County just to turn OR-04 into a Trump district due to it having more Trump-voting territory in northern Lane. (I assume that you meant to type 6th there instead of 5th)

Nice. I really like what you did. This should be a pretty safe 5-1 and it doesn't cross the Cascades. I wish there were better ties between the northern and southern parts of the 5th, but that really isn't possible without cutting Washington.

Thanks for the kind words. This is what happens you hand-pick precincts. In the 2nd's share of Jackson for instance there are 0 Clinton precincts. And in the 6th's share of Lane there are only 3 Clinton precincts.

Of course. However, I had to edit my earlier comment because it looks like the 5th and 6th districts are very competitive, and any map with 4+ safe D seats has to split Washington. The general design is good, but I think you'll have to do that if you want 5 Clinton+5 or higher seats.

You wind up hitting a wall past a certain point. 4 safe D seats or heavily respecting CoI - two things you have to choose between.
The map is optimized for safety while following CoI to a high degree. But one could tear up the CoI and easily get a safe 5-1, as Tack's map illustrates.

I agree. My concern is that in your map, the 5th isn't particularly safe, leaving the possibility of a 3-3 map in a R wave. Understandably, the 4th is always going to be a tossup unless you really start violating COIs.

One could reverse the placing of Clatsop in the 1st. Before then it was D+1.

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/eb7e8ebd-cec8-47f4-99cc-d4f835b244aa

Here's a wacky new 4D-2R map with only 6 county splits.   I kinda like the northwest coast district actually.   It even keeps Salem and Eugene in different districts.  

[lfromnj]

Oregon and IL D trifectas will be under much pressure to minimize R seats due to the likely GOP Gerrymanders in FL, GA and TX.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

My Portland metro quad-cut map:



OR-01: West Portland, Beaverton, Hillsboro, Astoria. Safe D (Bonamici).
OR-02: Northeast Portland, Gresham, Sandy. Safe D (Blumenauer).
OR-03: Southeast Portland, Oregon City, Salem. Safe D (Schrader).
OR-04: Tigard, Wilsonville, Albany, Corvallis. Safe D (Open).
OR-05: Eugene, Roseburg, Coos Bay, Medford. Likely D (DeFazio).
OR-06: Bend, Klamath Falls, Grants Pass, Hermiston. Safe R (Walden).

[Mr.Phips]

The key is unpacking the 3rd district.  That district should get about eight points more Dem in order to give some more of downtown Portland to the 5th and new 6th districts.

[Sol]

I've been playing around with a Fair Map, and man, gaining a district isn't good for Democrats in that scenario. You basically end up with a 3-3 map, with two of the Republican seats as leaners (though I'm not too clear on the new 6th's politics outside of 2016). Sucks as DeFazio is one of the best members of Congress--don't know how winnable the 6th is for him. I guess I could put Ashland in the 6th instead of Medford area towns, but I don't think Ashland is super well connected to the district.

[Oryxslayer]

Something like this of course is the rational option - 4 Safe D 2 Safe R.



But of Course there are plenty of ways to go for 5 dem seats of varying hues.





Note that these are older maps with the 2016 data, but I'm just posting them to get the general shapes out there, so it's fine.

[Skill and Chance]

Is this a pure Dem free-for-all?  Most Western states have either fully independent commissions or strict rules now.  Is OR an exception?

[Mr.Phips]

Is this a pure Dem free-for-all?  Most Western states have either fully independent commissions or strict rules now.  Is OR an exception?

There is a rule that there must be roads linking all of a district.

[Zaybay]

Is this a pure Dem free-for-all?  Most Western states have either fully independent commissions or strict rules now.  Is OR an exception?

There are safeguards:

-Districts must be contiguous.
-Districts must "utilize existing geographic or political boundaries."
-Districts should not "divide communities of common interest."
-Districts should "be connected by transportation links."
-Districts "must not be drawn for the purpose of favoring a political party, incumbent or other person.

Otherwise, the Dems can draw whatever they want.

[Skill and Chance]

Is this a pure Dem free-for-all?  Most Western states have either fully independent commissions or strict rules now.  Is OR an exception?

There are safeguards:

-Districts must be contiguous.
-Districts must "utilize existing geographic or political boundaries."
-Districts should not "divide communities of common interest."
-Districts should "be connected by transportation links."
-Districts "must not be drawn for the purpose of favoring a political party, incumbent or other person.

Otherwise, the Dems can draw whatever they want.

OK, so this sounds like a mildly regulated regime, think KY on the other side.

[Nyvin]

Is this a pure Dem free-for-all?  Most Western states have either fully independent commissions or strict rules now.  Is OR an exception?

There are safeguards:

-Districts must be contiguous.
-Districts must "utilize existing geographic or political boundaries."
-Districts should not "divide communities of common interest."
-Districts should "be connected by transportation links."
-Districts "must not be drawn for the purpose of favoring a political party, incumbent or other person.

Otherwise, the Dems can draw whatever they want.

Yeah, I know the Willamette River and Cascade Mountains are two geographic boundaries that have been established that should be respected when possible.

After that county splits seem to be the biggest thing - The current map only has 4.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

how certain is OR gaining a sixth district?

[lfromnj]

how certain is OR gaining a sixth district?

If it still had 5 districts it would have like 840k people per district so almost certainly gaining.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

how certain is OR gaining a sixth district?

If it still had 5 districts it would have like 840k people per district so almost certainly gaining.

So I assume OR-6 is about the 427th or so seat that is awarded and thus out of the edge zone?

[lfromnj]

how certain is OR gaining a sixth district?

If it still had 5 districts it would have like 840k people per district so almost certainly gaining.

So I assume OR-6 is about the 427th or so seat that is awarded and thus out of the edge zone?

Yeah most likely.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

how certain is OR gaining a sixth district?

If it still had 5 districts it would have like 840k people per district so almost certainly gaining.

So I assume OR-6 is about the 427th or so seat that is awarded and thus out of the edge zone?

Yeah most likely.

If Oregon somehow missed out on a seat AGAIN, then what would the map look like?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

how certain is OR gaining a sixth district?

If it still had 5 districts it would have like 840k people per district so almost certainly gaining.

So I assume OR-6 is about the 427th or so seat that is awarded and thus out of the edge zone?

Yeah most likely.

If Oregon somehow missed out on a seat AGAIN, then what would the map look like?

The current one with the 3 Portland metro districts bit smaller and the 2 downstate seats a bit larger. Although I really doubt Oregon doesn't get a 6th district .

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5d428c83-7e6f-406a-91dc-914117e7f236
I'd say this map is roughly as far as Dems can go with a gerrymander without totally baconing the map (on a related note, I think this map's version of cracking Portland is the best way to get a solid 4-1-1 on less extreme gerrymanders - either that or creating a coastal district with a tail into Portland). While it has a lot of county splits and violates the 18-county eastern group, all non-4th D districts are at least Clinton +14 (and are probably trending blue), and the 4th itself is around Clinton +11, which is probably the best Dems can do in the 4th without extending it into Benton County.


https://davesredistricting.org/join/194f35a9-0cbc-4280-97bc-52b1f11da0d9
Here's what a coast-based gerrymander can look like.

[Oryxslayer]

Here's a rather clean 5-1 map born this morning from the idea of a different Portland cut. It can even get more friendlier for Dems by sending Schrader's seat into Portland, but I desired to just show off how much you can still do with just a single cut in Portland. The 4th has to take in more Republican territory than would be preferable for road connections.



OR01: 54/34 Clinton, D+7.6
OR02: 62.5/27.5 Trump, R+18.4
OR03: 59/31 Clinton, D+14.25
OR04: 51/38 Clinton, D+6.75
OR05: 48/40 Clinton, D+2
OR06: 60/30.5 Clinton, D+14.6

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Oryx, that map is probably illegal. Under the current law, I don't think you can get away with crossing the cascades more than once and the 3rd does some weird COI pairings and crosses the Willamette. I think OR Dems are more likely to pursue 4-1-1, to be honest.

[lfromnj]

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/05/independent-redistricting-commission-supporters-launch-oregon-signature-gathering-campaign.html

Btw slight chance it makes the ballot

[Oryxslayer]

Just posting that I accidentally deleted my response to this post.

x

It was

"Oh I know that probably half the maps in this thread are illegal. I'm just curious what was possible."

[lfromnj]

Legitimate question
Would Schrader even want the cut into excess portland?
Thats 120k of the strongest leftists possible

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Legitimate question
Would Schrader even want the cut into excess portland?
Thats 120k of the strongest leftists possible

He'd probably be okay if he keeps all of Marion and most of Clackamas. I suppose he could take Gresham instead although the margins out there are weaker.