2020 Oregon Redistricting

[Mr.Phips]

Not a map per say, but here is an article from The Oregonian published today.

It's a subscriber exclusive, so unless you have a subscription (like I do) it's behind the paywall unless you want to pay a few $$$ to get a "new subscriber discount".

Don't want to exceed guidelines when it comes to copywrite articles but here's one item which stood out from what is a very well written article:

Communities of interest

This time around, lawmakers will base the maps on 2020 population data the Census Bureau plans to release Thursday. It will show which areas of the state have grown and shrunk in population and provide some information about the “communities of interest” Salinas referenced, a broad term in Oregon law that can be interpreted as neighborhoods, school districts, unincorporated communities and other ties that connect people.

One such tie Democrats will be eyeing is race and ethnicity, particularly among the state’s fast-growing number of Latinos who are citizens of voting age. While Latinos make up an estimated 13% of the state’s population, just one House district, corresponding to less than 2% of the 60 House seats, has a majority Latino population. That is House District 22, centered on Woodburn and held for a third term by Rep. Teresa Alonso León, who immigrated to the U.S. as a child with her migrant farmworker parents.

In addition to overall population counts, the census information will show the race and ethnicity of voting-age adults and of children. The census does not ask people about their party registration or preferences, but party registration by address is available from the state elections office....   

....Salinas said population estimates in recent years have shown significant population growth in parts of Washington County — Portland State University’s modeling predicted a countywide increase from the 2010 census to 2020 census of more than 73,000 people. And, if the actual census population count bears that out, Salinas said it could make sense to “start there to see where our sixth congressional district is.” The university’s population modeling showed a still larger increase of 79,000 residents in Multnomah County.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/08/oregon-lawmakers-prepare-to-draw-new-congressional-legislative-districts.html

I read it using a paywall bypass and it says they plan to release drafts on September 3rd. Also lots of signs that the Democrats will indeed pursue a fair map which likely dooms DeFazio and probably isn't good news for Schrader or Dem prospects in the new seat, either

If Dems allow the new seat to be Republican, they need to make sure both OR-04 and OR-05 are shored up.

[BoiseBoy]

Not a map per say, but here is an article from The Oregonian published today.

It's a subscriber exclusive, so unless you have a subscription (like I do) it's behind the paywall unless you want to pay a few $$$ to get a "new subscriber discount".

Don't want to exceed guidelines when it comes to copywrite articles but here's one item which stood out from what is a very well written article:

Communities of interest

This time around, lawmakers will base the maps on 2020 population data the Census Bureau plans to release Thursday. It will show which areas of the state have grown and shrunk in population and provide some information about the “communities of interest” Salinas referenced, a broad term in Oregon law that can be interpreted as neighborhoods, school districts, unincorporated communities and other ties that connect people.

One such tie Democrats will be eyeing is race and ethnicity, particularly among the state’s fast-growing number of Latinos who are citizens of voting age. While Latinos make up an estimated 13% of the state’s population, just one House district, corresponding to less than 2% of the 60 House seats, has a majority Latino population. That is House District 22, centered on Woodburn and held for a third term by Rep. Teresa Alonso León, who immigrated to the U.S. as a child with her migrant farmworker parents.

In addition to overall population counts, the census information will show the race and ethnicity of voting-age adults and of children. The census does not ask people about their party registration or preferences, but party registration by address is available from the state elections office....   

....Salinas said population estimates in recent years have shown significant population growth in parts of Washington County — Portland State University’s modeling predicted a countywide increase from the 2010 census to 2020 census of more than 73,000 people. And, if the actual census population count bears that out, Salinas said it could make sense to “start there to see where our sixth congressional district is.” The university’s population modeling showed a still larger increase of 79,000 residents in Multnomah County.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/08/oregon-lawmakers-prepare-to-draw-new-congressional-legislative-districts.html

I read it using a paywall bypass and it says they plan to release drafts on September 3rd. Also lots of signs that the Democrats will indeed pursue a fair map which likely dooms DeFazio and probably isn't good news for Schrader or Dem prospects in the new seat, either

The article says they hope to post them BY September 3, so we could get a peek at the draft maps earlier. Starting September 8, public forums will be held to get feedback on the drafts. The week of September 20, the legislature will have a special session to vote on the drafts.

[NOVA Green]

Not a map per say, but here is an article from The Oregonian published today.

It's a subscriber exclusive, so unless you have a subscription (like I do) it's behind the paywall unless you want to pay a few $$$ to get a "new subscriber discount".

Don't want to exceed guidelines when it comes to copywrite articles but here's one item which stood out from what is a very well written article:

Communities of interest

This time around, lawmakers will base the maps on 2020 population data the Census Bureau plans to release Thursday. It will show which areas of the state have grown and shrunk in population and provide some information about the “communities of interest” Salinas referenced, a broad term in Oregon law that can be interpreted as neighborhoods, school districts, unincorporated communities and other ties that connect people.

One such tie Democrats will be eyeing is race and ethnicity, particularly among the state’s fast-growing number of Latinos who are citizens of voting age. While Latinos make up an estimated 13% of the state’s population, just one House district, corresponding to less than 2% of the 60 House seats, has a majority Latino population. That is House District 22, centered on Woodburn and held for a third term by Rep. Teresa Alonso León, who immigrated to the U.S. as a child with her migrant farmworker parents.

In addition to overall population counts, the census information will show the race and ethnicity of voting-age adults and of children. The census does not ask people about their party registration or preferences, but party registration by address is available from the state elections office....   

....Salinas said population estimates in recent years have shown significant population growth in parts of Washington County — Portland State University’s modeling predicted a countywide increase from the 2010 census to 2020 census of more than 73,000 people. And, if the actual census population count bears that out, Salinas said it could make sense to “start there to see where our sixth congressional district is.” The university’s population modeling showed a still larger increase of 79,000 residents in Multnomah County.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/08/oregon-lawmakers-prepare-to-draw-new-congressional-legislative-districts.html

I read it using a paywall bypass and it says they plan to release drafts on September 3rd. Also lots of signs that the Democrats will indeed pursue a fair map which likely dooms DeFazio and probably isn't good news for Schrader or Dem prospects in the new seat, either

So although all of the comments were relevant, insightful, and well thought out, I chose to quote YOURS (Simply because you mentioned Defazio by name ).

Been a bit since I played around with OR CD Maps, and obviously once the Census dump hits Tomorrow I'm sure all of y'alls will be all over it!   

Regardless of the COI and Transportation corridor clauses in the OR Constitution with roughly correspond with Muon's rules, I believe that it is possible to create potentially a 5:1 DEM Map in Oregon for most of the '20s.

Sure, safe bet would be to go for a 4:2 vs shooting for a 5:1 and risking a 3:3 in a PUB wave year.

The "safety option" would effectively gift the Republicans and extra seat in the US House for quite possibly the entire decade of the '20s.

Going for a 5:1 map is feasible, although theoretically there might be some short-term pain (as well as the "nervous nancies" complaining on Atlas and elsewhere about how Dem's are risking a 3:3.

Reality is that in Oregon the most dramatic population growth are located in the Cities, which is heavily influenced by the Oregon Land Use Planning Laws which help protect zoned "agricultural and rural lands".

This is a ticking time bomb for PUB's as we look at how the dramatic increased population growth in Cities throughout Oregon has shifted PUB-DEM voting margins and patterns in not only Federal Elections, but also Statewide Elections.

For example in Southern Oregon, Trump only narrowly won Medford in 2020 (His largest Oregon City win), although the City is located in OR-02.

Ashland / Talent is also an obvious choice to through into CD-04 to buff up DeFazio, but again one would need to find a way to avoid heavily PUB cities outside of Medford such as Central Point and Eagle Point mucking it up.

DeFazio still has a Grants Pass problem, but pop growth in Metro Eugene-Springfield should shore him up, so long as turnout is strong in 2022.

Haven't really thought about CD-05 yet.... just a few initial musings.   

[UncleSam]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbb59be-0b30-4b36-b80e-a9cb69ce275c

2020 Results -
OR-1
62.82%   33.62%

OR-2
36.29%   60.89%

OR-3
78.87%   18.22%

OR-4
53.37%   43.45%

OR-5
55.94%   40.89%

OR-6
50.11%   46.41%

This feels a bit like a dummymander- what’re the 2016 POTUS results for these? My guess is Trump came within 5 points of carrying 4/6 districts, which is pretty horrendous if OR trends even a little R over the next decade.

I do like the 5 county splits, but this also cuts across the natural boundary of the Cascades which OR has consistently avoided doing, as doing so would trigger a lawsuit that would almost certainly result in a redraw.

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbb59be-0b30-4b36-b80e-a9cb69ce275c

2020 Results -
OR-1
62.82%   33.62%

OR-2
36.29%   60.89%

OR-3
78.87%   18.22%

OR-4
53.37%   43.45%

OR-5
55.94%   40.89%

OR-6
50.11%   46.41%

This feels a bit like a dummymander- what’re the 2016 POTUS results for these? My guess is Trump came within 5 points of carrying 4/6 districts, which is pretty horrendous if OR trends even a little R over the next decade.

I do like the 5 county splits, but this also cuts across the natural boundary of the Cascades which OR has consistently avoided doing, as doing so would trigger a lawsuit that would almost certainly result in a redraw.

In 2016 Trump only won the OR-2 and OR-6

[UncleSam]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbb59be-0b30-4b36-b80e-a9cb69ce275c

2020 Results -
OR-1
62.82%   33.62%

OR-2
36.29%   60.89%

OR-3
78.87%   18.22%

OR-4
53.37%   43.45%

OR-5
55.94%   40.89%

OR-6
50.11%   46.41%

This feels a bit like a dummymander- what’re the 2016 POTUS results for these? My guess is Trump came within 5 points of carrying 4/6 districts, which is pretty horrendous if OR trends even a little R over the next decade.

I do like the 5 county splits, but this also cuts across the natural boundary of the Cascades which OR has consistently avoided doing, as doing so would trigger a lawsuit that would almost certainly result in a redraw.

In 2016 Trump only won the OR-2 and OR-6

Sure but I assume OR 4 and 5 were somewhat close as well. Just seems like a silly thing to let Rs have so many potentially competitive districts.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3fed2b79-9c14-4390-8fdb-214d2070e9f8

With census data officially out, I took the opportunity to take a crack at a fair map. The population is obviously kind of scuffed - I tried to roughly match the districts with the official 2020 county numbers, making some assumptions along the way. Here's some of my rationales:

- Washington and Yamhill is 1,800 people from being a perfect district under the new numbers (a surprise), so I made that the base of this map. This seat is obviously Safe D and a layup for Bonamici.
- This also allows Portland to be kept whole and Multnomah to only be split twice - the new 3rd becomes a Multnomah-only seat. Gresham, however, became too big to take out of the seat whole, so it gets split (with the bulk ending up in the 5th).
- I took Salem (city) out of the 5th as the population roughly lined up for that to make sense. Unfortunately this means some of Salem's outer locales/Keizer are in the 5th but it's better than splitting the city outright or dropping the 5th into Linn. This new 5th is about three points more Republican, but trends mean it's probably Lean D outside of GOP wave years.
- The 6th takes coastal Lane and Veneta-Junction City for population equality. Clinton wins this district narrowly (and, it moves left in 2020), but this is a pretty good fair fight seat.
- The 4th picks up the rest of Josephine, Ashland, and some scraps in north Jackson. Slightly partisan decision here but it's pretty justifiable (keeps Medford and Center Point whole) and can be seen as a concession to Ds who probably won't like the risks associated with this map. Barely Trump in 2016, moving slightly right from DeFazio's old seat.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3fed2b79-9c14-4390-8fdb-214d2070e9f8

With census data officially out, I took the opportunity to take a crack at a fair map. The population is obviously kind of scuffed - I tried to roughly match the districts with the official 2020 county numbers, making some assumptions along the way. Here's some of my rationales:

- Washington and Yamhill is 1,800 people from being a perfect district under the new numbers (a surprise), so I made that the base of this map. This seat is obviously Safe D and a layup for Bonamici.
- This also allows Portland to be kept whole and Multnomah to only be split twice - the new 3rd becomes a Multnomah-only seat. Gresham, however, became too big to take out of the seat whole, so it gets split (with the bulk ending up in the 5th).
- I took Salem (city) out of the 5th as the population roughly lined up for that to make sense. Unfortunately this means some of Salem's outer locales/Keizer are in the 5th but it's better than splitting the city outright or dropping the 5th into Linn. This new 5th is about three points more Republican, but trends mean it's probably Lean D outside of GOP wave years.
- The 6th takes coastal Lane and Veneta-Junction City for population equality. Clinton wins this district narrowly (and, it moves left in 2020), but this is a pretty good fair fight seat.
- The 4th picks up the rest of Josephine, Ashland, and some scraps in north Jackson. Slightly partisan decision here but it's pretty justifiable (keeps Medford and Center Point whole) and can be seen as a concession to Ds who probably won't like the risks associated with this map. Barely Trump in 2016, moving slightly right from DeFazio's old seat.

Splendid stuff.

[NOVA Green]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3fed2b79-9c14-4390-8fdb-214d2070e9f8

With census data officially out, I took the opportunity to take a crack at a fair map. The population is obviously kind of scuffed - I tried to roughly match the districts with the official 2020 county numbers, making some assumptions along the way. Here's some of my rationales:

- Washington and Yamhill is 1,800 people from being a perfect district under the new numbers (a surprise), so I made that the base of this map. This seat is obviously Safe D and a layup for Bonamici.
- This also allows Portland to be kept whole and Multnomah to only be split twice - the new 3rd becomes a Multnomah-only seat. Gresham, however, became too big to take out of the seat whole, so it gets split (with the bulk ending up in the 5th).
- I took Salem (city) out of the 5th as the population roughly lined up for that to make sense. Unfortunately this means some of Salem's outer locales/Keizer are in the 5th but it's better than splitting the city outright or dropping the 5th into Linn. This new 5th is about three points more Republican, but trends mean it's probably Lean D outside of GOP wave years.
- The 6th takes coastal Lane and Veneta-Junction City for population equality. Clinton wins this district narrowly (and, it moves left in 2020), but this is a pretty good fair fight seat.
- The 4th picks up the rest of Josephine, Ashland, and some scraps in north Jackson. Slightly partisan decision here but it's pretty justifiable (keeps Medford and Center Point whole) and can be seen as a concession to Ds who probably won't like the risks associated with this map. Barely Trump in 2016, moving slightly right from DeFazio's old seat.

Really cool stuff---

I love it that you went in and started with the new data which we actually have--- Population by County in OR.

As most of those actually viewing these threads are likely well aware, OR tends to minimize County splits *** for the most part *** since for many small and predominately rural counties it makes the whole COI part of the Oregon requirements much easier to satisfy.

I will be *EXTREMELY* interested to see the more detailed data when it comes to population by City once it is released, since I have referenced elsewhere and multiple occasions, most of the population growth in OR tends to occur within City Limits / Urban Growth Boundaries as part of the Oregon Land Use Planning law from the 1970s.

Also, as I have stated previously elsewhere, it is totally logical to create a new CD predominately based upon the Mid-Valley, since Cities such as Salem, Albany, and Corvallis have much more in common with each other and for decades we keep getting chopped up into either CD-04 or CD-05 (Since the 1990s) this will effectively allow Metro PDX, which accounts for roughly 50% of the State's pop to have (3) districts while the other (3) are divided among different regions of the State.

Honestly, this almost look somewhat like a 5:1 (D) map to me through the 2020s, although naturally I understand some DEM leaning avatars might be a bit nervous, especially in 2022....

Excellent and great job putting all of this together in such a short time frame!

[bagelman]

Low effort GOP gerrymander, or dummymander as it does deny them a truly safe eastern seat. Done for no reason other than masochism and to be a dickhole.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8afb0bdd-e266-4d18-aa81-51748cf21d65

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

Yeah, OBD did make a masterpiece.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

I checked DRA stats for House District 22. It's crazy.
Total Population 2019

Pop   %
Total   69,326   100.0%
White   29,752   42.9%
Hispanic   34,777   50.2%
Black   1,789   2.6%
Asian   1,450   2.1%
Native   3,978   5.7%
Pacific   826   1.2%
Citizen VAP 2019

Pop   %
Total   37,371   100.0%
White   24,056   64.4%
Hispanic   10,477   28.0%
Black   899   2.4%
Asian   884   2.4%
Native   698   1.9%
Pacific   209   0.6%

This is a part of the state changing very rapidly demographically.

[NOVA Green]

snip

I checked DRA stats for House District 22. It's crazy.
Total Population 2019

Pop   %
Total   69,326   100.0%
White   29,752   42.9%
Hispanic   34,777   50.2%
Black   1,789   2.6%
Asian   1,450   2.1%
Native   3,978   5.7%
Pacific   826   1.2%
Citizen VAP 2019

Pop   %
Total   37,371   100.0%
White   24,056   64.4%
Hispanic   10,477   28.0%
Black   899   2.4%
Asian   884   2.4%
Native   698   1.9%
Pacific   209   0.6%

This is a part of the state changing very rapidly demographically.

This is true, although Woodburn has long been a majority Latino City, and historically there has been an extremely large Latino population in Northeast Salem as well for decades now, so in some ways perhaps not as surprising as it might initially appear.

Overall the population of Salem grew by 14% between '10 and '20 (+21k pop) and Woodburn 8% (+2k Pop), and I would not be surprised if much of this growth was disproportionately Latino.

One other item which sometimes slips under the radar is that even in many rural parts of the Central Willamette Valley there has also been a significant growth in Latino population, including in the rural belt in OR HD-22 which stretches from North of Salem to Woodburn along I-5, and although it hasn't yet really been visible yet much in terms of changing voting patterns within these areas, I would not be surprised to see that become a bit more evident over the next decade in places like Polk, Yamhill, and rural Marion counties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

I checked DRA stats for House District 22. It's crazy.
Total Population 2019

Pop %
Total 69,326 100.0%
White 29,752 42.9%
Hispanic 34,777 50.2%
Black 1,789 2.6%
Asian 1,450 2.1%
Native 3,978 5.7%
Pacific 826 1.2%
Citizen VAP 2019

Pop %
Total 37,371 100.0%
White 24,056 64.4%
Hispanic 10,477 28.0%
Black 899 2.4%
Asian 884 2.4%
Native 698 1.9%
Pacific 209 0.6%

This is a part of the state changing very rapidly demographically.

This is true, although Woodburn has long been a majority Latino City, and historically there has been an extremely large Latino population in Northeast Salem as well for decades now, so in some ways perhaps not as surprising as it might initially appear.

Overall the population of Salem grew by 14% between '10 and '20 (+21k pop) and Woodburn 8% (+2k Pop), and I would not be surprised if much of this growth was disproportionately Latino.

One other item which sometimes slips under the radar is that even in many rural parts of the Central Willamette Valley there has also been a significant growth in Latino population, including in the rural belt in OR HD-22 which stretches from North of Salem to Woodburn along I-5, and although it hasn't yet really been visible yet much in terms of changing voting patterns within these areas, I would not be surprised to see that become a bit more evident over the next decade in places like Polk, Yamhill, and rural Marion counties.

Some other HDs:

HD-20

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Total Population 2019

Pop %
Total 70,262 100.0%
White 52,957 75.4%
Hispanic 11,584 16.5%
Black 1,397 2.0%
Asian 2,705 3.8%
Native 1,689 2.4%
Pacific 608 0.9%
Citizen VAP 2019

Pop %
Total 49,978 100.0%
White 42,182 84.4%
Hispanic 4,604 9.2%
Black 671 1.3%
Asian 1,413 2.8%
Native 964 1.9%
Pacific 137 0.3%

HD-19

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Total Population 2019

Pop %
Total 71,444 100.0%
White 53,069 74.3%
Hispanic 11,938 16.7%
Black 1,389 1.9%
Asian 2,698 3.8%
Native 3,701 5.2%
Pacific 1,296 1.8%
Citizen VAP 2019

Pop %
Total 51,558 100.0%
White 42,483 82.4%
Hispanic 5,202 10.1%
Black 729 1.4%
Asian 1,217 2.4%
Native 1,263 2.4%
Pacific 487 0.9%

HD-23

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Total Population 2019

Pop %
Total 69,310 100.0%
White 59,048 85.2%
Hispanic 6,769 9.8%
Black 590 0.9%
Asian 1,199 1.7%
Native 2,527 3.6%
Pacific 160 0.2%
Citizen VAP 2019

Pop %
Total 52,308 100.0%
White 46,811 89.5%
Hispanic 3,076 5.9%
Black 331 0.6%
Asian 658 1.3%
Native 1,316 2.5%
Pacific 17 0.0%

HD-18

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Total Population 2019

Pop %
Total 67,045 100.0%
White 54,046 80.6%
Hispanic 10,282 15.3%
Black 541 0.8%
Asian 1,236 1.8%
Native 1,189 1.8%
Pacific 300 0.4%
Citizen VAP 2019

Pop %
Total 47,968 100.0%
White 42,107 87.8%
Hispanic 4,164 8.7%
Black 285 0.6%
Asian 777 1.6%
Native 605 1.3%
Pacific 34 0.1%

Interestingly, the biggest increases in Latino %, relatively, actually seem to be in coastal Oregon.

HD-32

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Total Population 2019

Pop %
Total 68,483 100.0%
White 57,964 84.6%
Hispanic 6,509 9.5%
Black 954 1.4%
Asian 1,560 2.3%
Native 1,913 2.8%
Pacific 598 0.9%
Citizen VAP 2019

Pop %
Total 53,131 100.0%
White 47,607 89.6%
Hispanic 2,710 5.1%
Black 372 0.7%
Asian 839 1.6%
Native 1,127 2.1%
Pacific 129

HD-10

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Total Population 2019

Pop %
Total 67,050 100.0%
White 54,519 81.3%
Hispanic 6,224 9.3%
Black 1,055 1.6%
Asian 1,482 2.2%
Native 4,125 6.2%
Pacific 292 0.4%
Citizen VAP 2019

Pop %
Total 53,377 100.0%
White 46,314 86.8%
Hispanic 2,657 5.0%
Black 697 1.3%
Asian 853 1.6%
Native 2,680 5.0%
Pacific 99 0.2%

HD-59 also saw pretty massive growth:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

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Total Population 2019

Pop %
Total 69,210 100.0%
White 51,742 74.8%
Hispanic 10,162 14.7%
Black 678 1.0%
Asian 802 1.2%
Native 6,322 9.1%
Pacific 483 0.7%
Citizen VAP 2019

Pop %
Total 51,771 100.0%
White 42,668 82.4%
Hispanic 4,087 7.9%
Black 332 0.6%
Asian 370 0.7%
Native 4,055 7.8%
Pacific 108 0.2%

Reminds me of Central Washington, tbh.

[NOVA Green]

So for anyone interested, The Oregonian did publish the total number of inhabitants for all cities in OR > 500 Pop, earlier today, but again behind the Paywall.

https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2021/08/oregon-city-and-town-populations-see-how-much-your-community-grew-or-shrank-in-runup-to-the-2020-census.html

Also, Oregon has become much more diverse in the past decade:

The state added nearly 139,000 Hispanic or Latino residents; 53,000 Asian residents; 30,000 white, non-Hispanic residents; 13,000 Black residents; 9,700 American Indian or Alaska Native residents; and 5,800 Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander residents. And nearly 61,000 more Oregonians checked the box for “some other race,” indicating they didn’t identify with any of the options presented......   

Meanwhile, Oregon’s white, non-Hispanic or Latino population grew by 1%. Rynerson said that growth is driven by newcomers to the state; more white people die than are born in Oregon each year because white Oregonians are older on average and share in the state’s overall low birth rate.

“If there were nobody moving into Oregon, the white population would decline, and it almost did decline,” he said. “There was just enough white people moving here to prevent the population from declining.”

https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2021/08/oregon-grew-more-diverse-in-the-2010s-census-shows.html

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3fed2b79-9c14-4390-8fdb-214d2070e9f8

With 2020 data out, I made a different concept of a fair map, moving Hood River into the 5th district with the dominoes falling from there (as a lot of the Mt. Hood/Gorge area is in the 5th, this makes sense from a COI standpoint). In terms of partisanship, this makes the 4th and 5th districts appreciably more favorable to Democrats, with the 6th moving a tad (0.2 points) right. The other main change here is different parts of Lane being put in the 6th - Coburg and areas east are somewhat interchangeable with Florence though. Could see the D-leaning court springing for something like this instead.

Additional note - the original map was pretty population-equal, with the 2nd and 4th needing to exchange about 8,000 people being the worst offense. The population-balanced version has the 4th moving to around Trump+0.7, about half a point right of the original.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/3c90af1e-5991-4d5e-b3bd-e5f547af76b1

Also, here's what a 4-2 compromise map could look like. All districts solidly for their parties, not much drama here. Has the likely side effect of kicking out Schrader, though - not sure if he can survive the primary in a significantly bluer seat with the SE Portland progressives.

[BoiseBoy]

"Oregon lawmakers are about to debate new political maps. Can they find agreement?"

https://www.opb.org/article/2021/09/02/oregon-lawmakers-debate-redistricting/

[Oryxslayer]

State Senate's Proposed Maps.

F I V E - O N E
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V
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O
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E

[BoiseBoy]

<br /><br /><br /><br />State Senate's Proposed Maps.<br /><br />F I V E - O N E<br />I<br />V<br />E<br />-<br />O<br />N<br />E<br /><br />[/img]

I would love to have a 2R, 3D, 1 Tossup for proportionality sake but that's not a realistic outcome.
Plan B as posted on their site seems to have 2 R districts at least.

[Oryxslayer]

State House's proposed plan (where the multi-party compromise deal was struck)



A more geographically Rational 4-2, with all seats appearing to be safe. Could however trade precincts in Lane around Eugene for Linn between 5 and 4 for safer seats.

[Gass3268]

State House's proposed plan (where the multi-party compromise deal was struck)



A more geographically Rational 4-2, with all seats appearing to be safe.

So is this more likely than Map A?

[lfromnj]

State House's proposed plan (where the multi-party compromise deal was struck)



A more geographically Rational 4-2, with all seats appearing to be safe. Could however trade precincts in Lane around Eugene for Linn between 5 and 4 for safer seats.

That doesn't look 4 2?
Looks 3 2 s and 1 r?

[Nyvin]

Plan B looks more like 3-2-1 than 4-2.   That district 5 wouldn't be safe D, it doesn't have any of Eugene in it.

[Oryxslayer]

State House's proposed plan (where the multi-party compromise deal was struck)

A more geographically Rational 4-2, with all seats appearing to be safe. Could however trade precincts in Lane around Eugene for Linn between 5 and 4 for safer seats.

That doesn't look 4 2?
Looks 3 2 s and 1 r?

Yes, I think you are right, Eugene is out of 5 and in 4. It looked like both Uni's were paired. Arguably if they pursue this style of map that should be the goal: Uni's in one for a common COI and safe D, give the valley seat Linn and some other rurals for safe R.