2020 Oregon Redistricting

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

On that note, I'm going to float this 5-1 map.


Link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/0c03f33d-33fc-4f36-8089-55830e9ac0b9

Partisanship
1st: Clinton +20.9, D+8 (1 point right of current iteration)
2nd: Trump +26.4, R+15 (6 points right of current iteration)
3rd: Clinton +24.2, D+13 (22 points right of current iteration)
4th: Clinton +14, D+7 (14 points left of current iteration)
5th: Clinton +21.2, D+9 (17 points left of current iteration)
6th: Clinton +12, D+6 (1 point left of state)

This is a very secure 5-1 map that utilizes the coastal district concept - personally, I've found that without a coastal district that's shored up with Portland, a 5-1 is basically impossible (as DeFazio's 4th is forced to pick up much of conservative Southern Oregon, capping it out at Clinton +2-3 max). DeFazio's district, which picks up swingy Polk County and Salem while losing most of its Southern Oregon part, moves significantly to the left, and is likely safe for the decade. Likewise, Schrader's district moves into Portland and becomes Titanium D. The new seat includes the Oregon Coast, the Medford-Grants Pass-Ashland triad, and West Portland (plus St. Johns), and has a partisan makeup roughly equal to that of the state. The new seat is also the most vulnerable, but is extremely unlikely to flip. Meanwhile, Blumenauer's district gets expanded significantly but remains Safe, while Bonamici's district sheds its part of Portland and the Columbia River region, while Rep. Elect Bentz's seat is pushed into uber-red Douglas County.

The map is road-contiguous, and is reasonably compact (even accounting for the coast district). The only bad splits are the three-way cuts of Douglas County, Marion County, and Portland - though all are done pretty neatly with city lines mostly intact, and in Portland's case, along logical lines.

Edit: It's of note that the Douglas County split can be eliminated by 1) having the 2nd bite into Josephine instead or 2) giving the 2nd the 4th's share of Douglas while moving the 6th further into Jackson. Both have the side affect of making the 6th more vulnerable (option 2 far more than option 1), however.

Freedom gerrymander. Your Portland proper split looks much cleaner than the maps on page 5 trying to lump all of us Washington County OR avatars in with Downtown Portland.

[ottermax]

Here is my attempt at a Democratic gerrymander using the Westside GOP to make a sink centered on Linn and Douglas County. It probably isn't legal as others have mentioned but this is my first attempt to share a map on this site so I wanted to see what others thought!

[OBD]

Here is my attempt at a Democratic gerrymander using the Westside GOP to make a sink centered on Linn and Douglas County. It probably isn't legal as others have mentioned but this is my first attempt to share a map on this site so I wanted to see what others thought!

Welcome to the site! Glad to have ya.

Anyway, as a native Oregonian, I have some commentary for this map. While the concept is interesting, it ultimately doesn't make sense for Democrats - it's of note that Eastern Oregon is significantly more Republican than the Southern Oregon portions you put in your sink, so it's a lot more logical to put Eastern Oregon in the R sink. Additionally, while this map is fairly secure, it does have some legality issues - the 18 counties in the east (give or take Hood River) are generally considered a COI (Community Of Interest) and thus can't be split without the risk of a court challenge.  Lastly, I think this district might have some issues with road contiguity, which is required under Oregon law IIRC.

For a future Democratic gerrymander, I'd advise you to try drawing a coastal district that has tails into Portland and (potentially) Southern Oregon - there's a road connection between Curry and Josephine County, and drawing it into Portland allows it to take in some deep-red parts of Southern Oregon while remaining a Clinton +>10 district. It's the only solution I've found that allows for DeFazio's district (Eugene) to get shored up Additionally, with the eastern sink, try to have the district take in as much red territory as possible - Douglas County is usually the best option.

Regardless, this was a pretty good first effort!

[ottermax]

Here is my attempt at a Democratic gerrymander using the Westside GOP to make a sink centered on Linn and Douglas County. It probably isn't legal as others have mentioned but this is my first attempt to share a map on this site so I wanted to see what others thought!

Welcome to the site! Glad to have ya.

Anyway, as a native Oregonian, I have some commentary for this map. While the concept is interesting, it ultimately doesn't make sense for Democrats - it's of note that Eastern Oregon is significantly more Republican than the Southern Oregon portions you put in your sink, so it's a lot more logical to put Eastern Oregon in the R sink. Additionally, while this map is fairly secure, it does have some legality issues - the 18 counties in the east (give or take Hood River) are generally considered a COI (Community Of Interest) and thus can't be split without the risk of a court challenge.  Lastly, I think this district might have some issues with road contiguity, which is required under Oregon law IIRC.

For a future Democratic gerrymander, I'd advise you to try drawing a coastal district that has tails into Portland and (potentially) Southern Oregon - there's a road connection between Curry and Josephine County, and drawing it into Portland allows it to take in some deep-red parts of Southern Oregon while remaining a Clinton +>10 district. It's the only solution I've found that allows for DeFazio's district (Eugene) to get shored up Additionally, with the eastern sink, try to have the district take in as much red territory as possible - Douglas County is usually the best option.

Regardless, this was a pretty good first effort!

I should clarify my goal was to do a different gerrymander that brought Bend in as well because of the growing Dem trend there and general changes to its demographics. Does the entire Eastern Oregon need to remain together? It seems like Deschutes County has less in common with many other areas than it used to.

I've also noticed so many maps putting Hood River County with Eastern Oregon, but is that what locals would want in that county? From the one time I visited it felt more connected to Portland than Eastern Oregon.

[OBD]

Here is my attempt at a Democratic gerrymander using the Westside GOP to make a sink centered on Linn and Douglas County. It probably isn't legal as others have mentioned but this is my first attempt to share a map on this site so I wanted to see what others thought!

Welcome to the site! Glad to have ya.

Anyway, as a native Oregonian, I have some commentary for this map. While the concept is interesting, it ultimately doesn't make sense for Democrats - it's of note that Eastern Oregon is significantly more Republican than the Southern Oregon portions you put in your sink, so it's a lot more logical to put Eastern Oregon in the R sink. Additionally, while this map is fairly secure, it does have some legality issues - the 18 counties in the east (give or take Hood River) are generally considered a COI (Community Of Interest) and thus can't be split without the risk of a court challenge.  Lastly, I think this district might have some issues with road contiguity, which is required under Oregon law IIRC.

For a future Democratic gerrymander, I'd advise you to try drawing a coastal district that has tails into Portland and (potentially) Southern Oregon - there's a road connection between Curry and Josephine County, and drawing it into Portland allows it to take in some deep-red parts of Southern Oregon while remaining a Clinton +>10 district. It's the only solution I've found that allows for DeFazio's district (Eugene) to get shored up Additionally, with the eastern sink, try to have the district take in as much red territory as possible - Douglas County is usually the best option.

Regardless, this was a pretty good first effort!

I should clarify my goal was to do a different gerrymander that brought Bend in as well because of the growing Dem trend there and general changes to its demographics. Does the entire Eastern Oregon need to remain together? It seems like Deschutes County has less in common with many other areas than it used to.

I've also noticed so many maps putting Hood River County with Eastern Oregon, but is that what locals would want in that county? From the one time I visited it felt more connected to Portland than Eastern Oregon.

Yeah, that's a legitimate goal. Personally, I think Bend and Hood River should be able to be moved in with Western Oregon, but as the 18-county COI has been in place for so long I'm not sure if Dems want to break that taboo. Hood River could probably be snatched as it is, as you said, more similar to Portland, but taking out Bend would almost certainly make the Republicans cry foul.

[Nyvin]

Here is my attempt at a Democratic gerrymander using the Westside GOP to make a sink centered on Linn and Douglas County. It probably isn't legal as others have mentioned but this is my first attempt to share a map on this site so I wanted to see what others thought!

Welcome to the site! Glad to have ya.

Anyway, as a native Oregonian, I have some commentary for this map. While the concept is interesting, it ultimately doesn't make sense for Democrats - it's of note that Eastern Oregon is significantly more Republican than the Southern Oregon portions you put in your sink, so it's a lot more logical to put Eastern Oregon in the R sink. Additionally, while this map is fairly secure, it does have some legality issues - the 18 counties in the east (give or take Hood River) are generally considered a COI (Community Of Interest) and thus can't be split without the risk of a court challenge.  Lastly, I think this district might have some issues with road contiguity, which is required under Oregon law IIRC.

For a future Democratic gerrymander, I'd advise you to try drawing a coastal district that has tails into Portland and (potentially) Southern Oregon - there's a road connection between Curry and Josephine County, and drawing it into Portland allows it to take in some deep-red parts of Southern Oregon while remaining a Clinton +>10 district. It's the only solution I've found that allows for DeFazio's district (Eugene) to get shored up Additionally, with the eastern sink, try to have the district take in as much red territory as possible - Douglas County is usually the best option.

Regardless, this was a pretty good first effort!

I should clarify my goal was to do a different gerrymander that brought Bend in as well because of the growing Dem trend there and general changes to its demographics. Does the entire Eastern Oregon need to remain together? It seems like Deschutes County has less in common with many other areas than it used to.

I've also noticed so many maps putting Hood River County with Eastern Oregon, but is that what locals would want in that county? From the one time I visited it felt more connected to Portland than Eastern Oregon.

The only reason Hood River stayed in OR-2 was because Greg Walden lived there.  Now that he's gone it absolutely can go together with the Portland Metro.

[Sol]

Here is my attempt at a Democratic gerrymander using the Westside GOP to make a sink centered on Linn and Douglas County. It probably isn't legal as others have mentioned but this is my first attempt to share a map on this site so I wanted to see what others thought!

Welcome to the site! Glad to have ya.

Anyway, as a native Oregonian, I have some commentary for this map. While the concept is interesting, it ultimately doesn't make sense for Democrats - it's of note that Eastern Oregon is significantly more Republican than the Southern Oregon portions you put in your sink, so it's a lot more logical to put Eastern Oregon in the R sink. Additionally, while this map is fairly secure, it does have some legality issues - the 18 counties in the east (give or take Hood River) are generally considered a COI (Community Of Interest) and thus can't be split without the risk of a court challenge.  Lastly, I think this district might have some issues with road contiguity, which is required under Oregon law IIRC.

For a future Democratic gerrymander, I'd advise you to try drawing a coastal district that has tails into Portland and (potentially) Southern Oregon - there's a road connection between Curry and Josephine County, and drawing it into Portland allows it to take in some deep-red parts of Southern Oregon while remaining a Clinton +>10 district. It's the only solution I've found that allows for DeFazio's district (Eugene) to get shored up Additionally, with the eastern sink, try to have the district take in as much red territory as possible - Douglas County is usually the best option.

Regardless, this was a pretty good first effort!

I should clarify my goal was to do a different gerrymander that brought Bend in as well because of the growing Dem trend there and general changes to its demographics. Does the entire Eastern Oregon need to remain together? It seems like Deschutes County has less in common with many other areas than it used to.

I've also noticed so many maps putting Hood River County with Eastern Oregon, but is that what locals would want in that county? From the one time I visited it felt more connected to Portland than Eastern Oregon.

Yeah, that's a legitimate goal. Personally, I think Bend and Hood River should be able to be moved in with Western Oregon, but as the 18-county COI has been in place for so long I'm not sure if Dems want to break that taboo. Hood River could probably be snatched as it is, as you said, more similar to Portland, but taking out Bend would almost certainly make the Republicans cry foul.

Does Bend really belong with Western Oregon? That seems questionable to me. It may be more similar demographically/politically to some of the West but it's separated by massive mountains and such. Plus Bend isn't actually that much like any place in Western Oregon, except maybe Medford-Ashland.

[OBD]

Here is my attempt at a Democratic gerrymander using the Westside GOP to make a sink centered on Linn and Douglas County. It probably isn't legal as others have mentioned but this is my first attempt to share a map on this site so I wanted to see what others thought!

Welcome to the site! Glad to have ya.

Anyway, as a native Oregonian, I have some commentary for this map. While the concept is interesting, it ultimately doesn't make sense for Democrats - it's of note that Eastern Oregon is significantly more Republican than the Southern Oregon portions you put in your sink, so it's a lot more logical to put Eastern Oregon in the R sink. Additionally, while this map is fairly secure, it does have some legality issues - the 18 counties in the east (give or take Hood River) are generally considered a COI (Community Of Interest) and thus can't be split without the risk of a court challenge.  Lastly, I think this district might have some issues with road contiguity, which is required under Oregon law IIRC.

For a future Democratic gerrymander, I'd advise you to try drawing a coastal district that has tails into Portland and (potentially) Southern Oregon - there's a road connection between Curry and Josephine County, and drawing it into Portland allows it to take in some deep-red parts of Southern Oregon while remaining a Clinton +>10 district. It's the only solution I've found that allows for DeFazio's district (Eugene) to get shored up Additionally, with the eastern sink, try to have the district take in as much red territory as possible - Douglas County is usually the best option.

Regardless, this was a pretty good first effort!

I should clarify my goal was to do a different gerrymander that brought Bend in as well because of the growing Dem trend there and general changes to its demographics. Does the entire Eastern Oregon need to remain together? It seems like Deschutes County has less in common with many other areas than it used to.

I've also noticed so many maps putting Hood River County with Eastern Oregon, but is that what locals would want in that county? From the one time I visited it felt more connected to Portland than Eastern Oregon.

Yeah, that's a legitimate goal. Personally, I think Bend and Hood River should be able to be moved in with Western Oregon, but as the 18-county COI has been in place for so long I'm not sure if Dems want to break that taboo. Hood River could probably be snatched as it is, as you said, more similar to Portland, but taking out Bend would almost certainly make the Republicans cry foul.

Does Bend really belong with Western Oregon? That seems questionable to me. It may be more similar demographically/politically to some of the West but it's separated by massive mountains and such. Plus Bend isn't actually that much like any place in Western Oregon, except maybe Medford-Ashland.

I mean in a fair map that probably wouldn't happen. But if it's a Democratic gerrymander, Bend is different enough from the rest of Eastern Oregon that throwing it in with Eugene should be justifiable.

[ottermax]

Does Bend really belong with Western Oregon? That seems questionable to me. It may be more similar demographically/politically to some of the West but it's separated by massive mountains and such. Plus Bend isn't actually that much like any place in Western Oregon, except maybe Medford-Ashland.

Bend might not belong with Western Oregon, but in Washington I would also argue that Wenatchee doesn't really belong with Auburn or Sammamish... yet it has to happen. Similarly we see lots of unusual mashups in rural and urban Arizona, so I think it is not that implausible to place Bend with Western Oregon. I'd also argue that Medford or Grants Pass have little in common with Eastern Oregon but are often smashed together with it because of partisanship.

Eastern Oregon is an odd region given that outside of Bend and Hood River it is so sparsely populated unlike Eastern Washington which has major urban centers.

[Sol]

Who said Wenatchee had to go with suburban Seattle?

[ottermax]

Who said Wenatchee had to go with suburban Seattle?

It shouldn't! But I just use it as an example of how cross-mountain connections can be made without causing a ruckus. I have never heard anyone actually complain about the shape of the 8th district the past ten years, so I don't see why Democrats in Oregon can't go ahead and do cross-mountain districts if they wanted to.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Who said Wenatchee had to go with suburban Seattle?

It shouldn't! But I just use it as an example of how cross-mountain connections can be made without causing a ruckus. I have never heard anyone actually complain about the shape of the 8th district the past ten years, so I don't see why Democrats in Oregon can't go ahead and do cross-mountain districts if they wanted to.

I think it's more justifiable for Washington because Washington has a more balanced population distribution on both sides of the Cascades.

[OBD]

Who said Wenatchee had to go with suburban Seattle?

It shouldn't! But I just use it as an example of how cross-mountain connections can be made without causing a ruckus. I have never heard anyone actually complain about the shape of the 8th district the past ten years, so I don't see why Democrats in Oregon can't go ahead and do cross-mountain districts if they wanted to.

I think it's more justifiable for Washington because Washington has a more balanced population distribution on both sides of the Cascades.

Basically this. As Eastern Oregon has less population than a district it's been historically kept together, and any map that takes more than Hood River out of it would probably get challenged and/or struck down.

[Sol]

Who said Wenatchee had to go with suburban Seattle?

It shouldn't! But I just use it as an example of how cross-mountain connections can be made without causing a ruckus. I have never heard anyone actually complain about the shape of the 8th district the past ten years, so I don't see why Democrats in Oregon can't go ahead and do cross-mountain districts if they wanted to.

Sorry, I think I misconstrued your initial post--I interpreted "has to" as meaning "it should in a fair map."

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Here is a good way to draw OR-02 if you are looking for what is best for the Dems. Rest of state is Clinton + 20.7.

[Stuart98]

Here is a good way to draw OR-02 if you are looking for what is best for the Dems. Rest of state is Clinton + 20.7.

Is there a road connection between Bend and the rest of the state? (that doesn't pass through your OR-02)

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Here is a good way to draw OR-02 if you are looking for what is best for the Dems. Rest of state is Clinton + 20.7.

Is there a road connection between Bend and the rest of the state? (that doesn't pass through your OR-02)

Nope. There are no highway connections between Eugene and Bend that stay entirely within Lane and Deschutes Counties.

[Stuart98]

Here is a good way to draw OR-02 if you are looking for what is best for the Dems. Rest of state is Clinton + 20.7.

Is there a road connection between Bend and the rest of the state? (that doesn't pass through your OR-02)

Nope. There are no highway connections between Eugene and Bend that stay entirely within Lane and Deschutes Counties.

That's what I thought; this map is illegal.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Here is a good way to draw OR-02 if you are looking for what is best for the Dems. Rest of state is Clinton + 20.7.

Is there a road connection between Bend and the rest of the state? (that doesn't pass through your OR-02)

Nope. There are no highway connections between Eugene and Bend that stay entirely within Lane and Deschutes Counties.

That's what I thought; this map is illegal.

Only as illegal as SCOOR wants it to be.
And I am fairly sure that SCOOR is controlled by Democrats.

[Stuart98]

Here is a good way to draw OR-02 if you are looking for what is best for the Dems. Rest of state is Clinton + 20.7.

Is there a road connection between Bend and the rest of the state? (that doesn't pass through your OR-02)

Nope. There are no highway connections between Eugene and Bend that stay entirely within Lane and Deschutes Counties.

That's what I thought; this map is illegal.

Only as illegal as SCOOR wants it to be.
And I am fairly sure that SCOOR is controlled by Democrats.

I'm not sure why Democrats would send an illegal map to the SCOOR in the hopes that they'll ignore the law when not only can they send a legal 5-1 map instead, they could even send a legal 6-0 or 5-0-1 map.

[MaxQue]

Here is a good way to draw OR-02 if you are looking for what is best for the Dems. Rest of state is Clinton + 20.7.

Is there a road connection between Bend and the rest of the state? (that doesn't pass through your OR-02)

Nope. There are no highway connections between Eugene and Bend that stay entirely within Lane and Deschutes Counties.

That's what I thought; this map is illegal.

Only as illegal as SCOOR wants it to be.
And I am fairly sure that SCOOR is controlled by Democrats.

As the state Constitution states districts have to be contiguous by road, it would take massive creativity by the court there.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Here is a good way to draw OR-02 if you are looking for what is best for the Dems. Rest of state is Clinton + 20.7.

Is there a road connection between Bend and the rest of the state? (that doesn't pass through your OR-02)

Nope. There are no highway connections between Eugene and Bend that stay entirely within Lane and Deschutes Counties.

That's what I thought; this map is illegal.

Only as illegal as SCOOR wants it to be.
And I am fairly sure that SCOOR is controlled by Democrats.

As the state Constitution states districts have to be contiguous by road, it would take massive creativity by the court there.

No more creativity than it will take the SCOFL to ignore the fair districts amendment of that state, which they are definitely going to do.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

There's a much cleaner way to achieve the same 5-1 impact. Putting OR-02 in a blender to rescue a few blue precincts in Southwest Oregon just isn't worth it imo.

[lfromnj]

Here is a good way to draw OR-02 if you are looking for what is best for the Dems. Rest of state is Clinton + 20.7.

Is there a road connection between Bend and the rest of the state? (that doesn't pass through your OR-02)

Nope. There are no highway connections between Eugene and Bend that stay entirely within Lane and Deschutes Counties.

That's what I thought; this map is illegal.

Only as illegal as SCOOR wants it to be.
And I am fairly sure that SCOOR is controlled by Democrats.

As the state Constitution states districts have to be contiguous by road, it would take massive creativity by the court there.

No more creativity than it will take the SCOFL to ignore the fair districts amendment of that state, which they are definitely going to do.

Nah thats more subjective . A better example would be if the Ohio Supreme court just cancelled the county rules. Again it isn't that hard to find a road connection somewhere.  However the real issue isn't the court but if the OR GOP quorum busts.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Here is a good way to draw OR-02 if you are looking for what is best for the Dems. Rest of state is Clinton + 20.7.

Is there a road connection between Bend and the rest of the state? (that doesn't pass through your OR-02)

Nope. There are no highway connections between Eugene and Bend that stay entirely within Lane and Deschutes Counties.

That's what I thought; this map is illegal.

Only as illegal as SCOOR wants it to be.
And I am fairly sure that SCOOR is controlled by Democrats.

As the state Constitution states districts have to be contiguous by road, it would take massive creativity by the court there.

No more creativity than it will take the SCOFL to ignore the fair districts amendment of that state, which they are definitely going to do.

Nah thats more subjective . A better example would be if the Ohio Supreme court just cancelled the county rules. Again it isn't that hard to find a road connection somewhere.  However the real issue isn't the court but if the OR GOP quorum busts.

If the OR GOP quorum busts, then the law is that OR SOS Shemia Fagan (a Democrat) draws the maps.