2020 Oregon Redistricting

[lfromnj]

The Antifa vs 3% district is going to be great fun for the primary and general.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Here is my OR map. 4D - 1R - 1 Toss-up

*Based on the 2012-2018 Composite

[OBD]

Here is my OR map. 4D - 1R - 1 Toss-up

*Based on the 2012-2018 Composite

Just out of curiosity, what's the logic for this map? It cuts a lot of counties and also crosses the Cascades multiple times, which is a big no-no for a nonpartisan map.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

I like making redistricting maps for fun and also didn't realize has strict redistricting rules.

[OBD]

I like making redistricting maps for fun and also didn't realize has strict redistricting rules.

Ah ok. It's not written in stone or anything, but generally avoid it unless you want to make a D gerrymander, and even then.

[OBD]

On that note, it feels like an optimal time to post this vicious 5-0-1 gerrymander. I believe it has road connections (or will have following precinct splits), and with the exception of the 2nd district all districts are at least Clinton+10. Additionally, the eastern COI is kept whole (though Portland is admittedly cut to all hell).

The 2nd district is Clinton+3 and Brown+1 (2018), and with Bend growing Democrats will have an excellent chance of picking up and/or holding this seat. Also all incumbents have obvious seats to go to (though Blumenauer, and to a lesser degree Bonamici, get significantly redder seats).

Now that the actual 2020 numbers are in, I'm even more confident that this gerrymander or something similar is the way to go if OR Democrats want to go full scorched earth - Deschutes swung hard to Biden this year, so the 2nd district should be somewhere in the Biden +7-8 range - well within the range for a potential Democratic pickup. While it's difficult to do so, the 1st District actually could probably be cut up a bit more while remaining Safe, and the 6th District (DeFazio) on this map remains the most vulnerable D-held seat.

[Former President tack50]

Here is my take on a map that I've done by "thinking outside the box" and crossing the cascades once, but heading towards rural Douglas county instead of Medford or Ashford. I thought that'd make the map a slight D gerrymander but apparently there is little difference (as long as you keep things clean at least):



OR-01: Clinton+12, D+4
OR-02: Trump+26, R+15
OR-03: Clinton+64, D+23
OR-04: Clinton+3, D+2
OR-05: Trump+1, R+2
OR-06: Clinton+11, D+4

Overall, it seems to me that it will be nearly impossible for Dems to draw a 5-1 map and that they'll need to concede 1 swing district at the very least, or possibly even 2 swing districts or one Safe R district (depends on how things go)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I like doing these kinda maps (i have done so many for South Carolina and Iowa it's ridiculous) so here's a 5/1 Oregon that doesn't look too gerrymandered

[Mr.Phips]

Here is my take on a map that I've done by "thinking outside the box" and crossing the cascades once, but heading towards rural Douglas county instead of Medford or Ashford. I thought that'd make the map a slight D gerrymander but apparently there is little difference (as long as you keep things clean at least):



OR-01: Clinton+12, D+4
OR-02: Trump+26, R+15
OR-03: Clinton+64, D+23
OR-04: Clinton+3, D+2
OR-05: Trump+1, R+2
OR-06: Clinton+11, D+4

Overall, it seems to me that it will be nearly impossible for Dems to draw a 5-1 map and that they'll need to concede 1 swing district at the very least, or possibly even 2 swing districts or one Safe R district (depends on how things go)

OR-03 is waaaaay too Dem.  That should be brought down to D+15 at most.

[Former President tack50]

Here is my take on a map that I've done by "thinking outside the box" and crossing the cascades once, but heading towards rural Douglas county instead of Medford or Ashford. I thought that'd make the map a slight D gerrymander but apparently there is little difference (as long as you keep things clean at least):



OR-01: Clinton+12, D+4
OR-02: Trump+26, R+15
OR-03: Clinton+64, D+23
OR-04: Clinton+3, D+2
OR-05: Trump+1, R+2
OR-06: Clinton+11, D+4

Overall, it seems to me that it will be nearly impossible for Dems to draw a 5-1 map and that they'll need to concede 1 swing district at the very least, or possibly even 2 swing districts or one Safe R district (depends on how things go)

OR-03 is waaaaay too Dem.  That should be brought down to D+15 at most.

Why? It is a compact Portland district? I guess you can move it around slightly but splitting Portland would be too obvious of a gerrymander?

[OBD]

Here is my take on a map that I've done by "thinking outside the box" and crossing the cascades once, but heading towards rural Douglas county instead of Medford or Ashford. I thought that'd make the map a slight D gerrymander but apparently there is little difference (as long as you keep things clean at least):



OR-01: Clinton+12, D+4
OR-02: Trump+26, R+15
OR-03: Clinton+64, D+23
OR-04: Clinton+3, D+2
OR-05: Trump+1, R+2
OR-06: Clinton+11, D+4

Overall, it seems to me that it will be nearly impossible for Dems to draw a 5-1 map and that they'll need to concede 1 swing district at the very least, or possibly even 2 swing districts or one Safe R district (depends on how things go)

OR-03 is waaaaay too Dem.  That should be brought down to D+15 at most.

Why? It is a compact Portland district? I guess you can move it around slightly but splitting Portland would be too obvious of a gerrymander?

I mean, it's a fine map depending on what your goals are, but ultimately I think Oregon Dems can - and will - draw a more aggressive gerrymander. Also, if OR Democrats do decide to play nice (which your map implies), Washington County probably wouldn't get split - also, road connectivity is required and I'm not sure the lower part of Lane in your 5th district connects to the rest of it.

That said, as an OR Democrat, I'd rather concede a district than risk a 3-3 map (which thanks to trends in Southern Oregon, this map does) - either go for a semi-secure 5-1 or lock in a 4-2 with a Southern Oregon + Linn sink.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here is my take on a map that I've done by "thinking outside the box" and crossing the cascades once, but heading towards rural Douglas county instead of Medford or Ashford. I thought that'd make the map a slight D gerrymander but apparently there is little difference (as long as you keep things clean at least):



OR-01: Clinton+12, D+4
OR-02: Trump+26, R+15
OR-03: Clinton+64, D+23
OR-04: Clinton+3, D+2
OR-05: Trump+1, R+2
OR-06: Clinton+11, D+4

Overall, it seems to me that it will be nearly impossible for Dems to draw a 5-1 map and that they'll need to concede 1 swing district at the very least, or possibly even 2 swing districts or one Safe R district (depends on how things go)

OR-03 is waaaaay too Dem.  That should be brought down to D+15 at most.

Why? It is a compact Portland district? I guess you can move it around slightly but splitting Portland would be too obvious of a gerrymander?

Splitting Portland is the norm, actually. The current (fair) map pairs Portland west of the Willamette with Washington County and Portland east of the Willamette with Gresham. I see no reason why future maps would be different.

[Mr.Phips]

Here is my take on a map that I've done by "thinking outside the box" and crossing the cascades once, but heading towards rural Douglas county instead of Medford or Ashford. I thought that'd make the map a slight D gerrymander but apparently there is little difference (as long as you keep things clean at least):



OR-01: Clinton+12, D+4
OR-02: Trump+26, R+15
OR-03: Clinton+64, D+23
OR-04: Clinton+3, D+2
OR-05: Trump+1, R+2
OR-06: Clinton+11, D+4

Overall, it seems to me that it will be nearly impossible for Dems to draw a 5-1 map and that they'll need to concede 1 swing district at the very least, or possibly even 2 swing districts or one Safe R district (depends on how things go)

OR-03 is waaaaay too Dem.  That should be brought down to D+15 at most.

Why? It is a compact Portland district? I guess you can move it around slightly but splitting Portland would be too obvious of a gerrymander?

If Republicans are going to continue to gerrymander in Georgia, Texas, Florida, and other states where they have control, Democrats need to do it in the few states they have control in.

[OBD]

On that note, I'm going to float this 5-1 map.


Link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/0c03f33d-33fc-4f36-8089-55830e9ac0b9

Partisanship
1st: Clinton +20.9, D+8 (1 point right of current iteration)
2nd: Trump +26.4, R+15 (6 points right of current iteration)
3rd: Clinton +24.2, D+13 (22 points right of current iteration)
4th: Clinton +14, D+7 (14 points left of current iteration)
5th: Clinton +21.2, D+9 (17 points left of current iteration)
6th: Clinton +12, D+6 (1 point left of state)

This is a very secure 5-1 map that utilizes the coastal district concept - personally, I've found that without a coastal district that's shored up with Portland, a 5-1 is basically impossible (as DeFazio's 4th is forced to pick up much of conservative Southern Oregon, capping it out at Clinton +2-3 max). DeFazio's district, which picks up swingy Polk County and Salem while losing most of its Southern Oregon part, moves significantly to the left, and is likely safe for the decade. Likewise, Schrader's district moves into Portland and becomes Titanium D. The new seat includes the Oregon Coast, the Medford-Grants Pass-Ashland triad, and West Portland (plus St. Johns), and has a partisan makeup roughly equal to that of the state. The new seat is also the most vulnerable, but is extremely unlikely to flip. Meanwhile, Blumenauer's district gets expanded significantly but remains Safe, while Bonamici's district sheds its part of Portland and the Columbia River region, while Rep. Elect Bentz's seat is pushed into uber-red Douglas County.

The map is road-contiguous, and is reasonably compact (even accounting for the coast district). The only bad splits are the three-way cuts of Douglas County, Marion County, and Portland - though all are done pretty neatly with city lines mostly intact, and in Portland's case, along logical lines.

Edit: It's of note that the Douglas County split can be eliminated by 1) having the 2nd bite into Josephine instead or 2) giving the 2nd the 4th's share of Douglas while moving the 6th further into Jackson. Both have the side affect of making the 6th more vulnerable (option 2 far more than option 1), however.

[Mr.Phips]

On that note, I'm going to float this 5-1 map.


Link: https://davesredistricting.org/join/0c03f33d-33fc-4f36-8089-55830e9ac0b9

Partisanship
1st: Clinton +20.9, D+8 (1 point right of current iteration)
2nd: Trump +26.4, R+15 (6 points right of current iteration)
3rd: Clinton +24.2, D+13 (22 points right of current iteration)
4th: Clinton +14, D+7 (14 points left of current iteration)
5th: Clinton +21.2, D+9 (17 points left of current iteration)
6th: Clinton +12, D+6 (1 point left of state)

This is a very secure 5-1 map that utilizes the coastal district concept - personally, I've found that without a coastal district that's shored up with Portland, a 5-1 is basically impossible (as DeFazio's 4th is forced to pick up much of conservative Southern Oregon, capping it out at Clinton +2-3 max). DeFazio's district, which picks up swingy Polk County and Salem while losing most of its Southern Oregon part, moves significantly to the left, and is likely safe for the decade. Likewise, Schrader's district moves into Portland and becomes Titanium D. The new seat includes the Oregon Coast, the Medford-Grants Pass-Ashland triad, and West Portland (plus St. Johns), and has a partisan makeup roughly equal to that of the state. The new seat is also the most vulnerable, but is extremely unlikely to flip. Meanwhile, Blumenauer's district gets expanded significantly but remains Safe, while Bonamici's district sheds its part of Portland and the Columbia River region, while Rep. Elect Bentz's seat is pushed into uber-red Douglas County.

The map is road-contiguous, and is reasonably compact (even accounting for the coast district). The only bad splits are the three-way cuts of Douglas County, Marion County, and Portland - though all are done pretty neatly with city lines mostly intact, and in Portland's case, along logical lines.

Edit: It's of note that the Douglas County split can be eliminated by 1) having the 2nd bite into Josephine instead or 2) giving the 2nd the 4th's share of Douglas while moving the 6th further into Jackson. Both have the side affect of making the 6th more vulnerable (option 2 far more than option 1), however.

This is the map that should be drawn.

[Sol]

How important of a CoI is coastal Oregon? I'm drawing a map and unsure whether it's better to split the coast (with Columbia/Clatsop/Tillamook going into a suburban Portland district) or keep it whole and put it with a Washington County district.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

How important of a CoI is coastal Oregon? I'm drawing a map and unsure whether it's better to split the coast (with Columbia/Clatsop/Tillamook going into a suburban Portland district) or keep it whole and put it with a Washington County district.

It isn't one. Pair the coast with the I-5 corridor metro it's connected to by highway. Columbia/Clatsop/Tillamook with Portland, Lincoln with Benton/Polk, Coos/Curry with Josephine/Douglass.

[Sol]

How important of a CoI is coastal Oregon? I'm drawing a map and unsure whether it's better to split the coast (with Columbia/Clatsop/Tillamook going into a suburban Portland district) or keep it whole and put it with a Washington County district.

It isn't one. Pair the coast with the I-5 corridor metro it's connected to by highway. Columbia/Clatsop/Tillamook with Portland, Lincoln with Benton/Polk, Coos/Curry with Josephine/Douglass.

Yeah Coos/Curry I was planning on putting with Josephine/Douglas for sure, wasn't as sure about the others.

I know there is a mountain range between the Coast and the Willamette Valley, so I'm rather loathe to cross it too often.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I know there is a mountain range between the Coast and the Willamette Valley, so I'm rather loathe to cross it too often.

There is but it really isn't that big of a deal (and it isn't a particularly big mountain range.) Lincoln County is much more connected to the mid-Valley than Tillamook/Clatsop. Similarly, Lane and Douglass should remain intact from the coast to the Cascades.

[lfromnj]

@sol I am guessing you wanted this?

I guess it does give the advantage of keeping the coast and the mid Willamette valley together. No particular major partisan changes either way if you just put Lincoln in red while putting more of Yamhill in Blue.

[Sol]

@sol I am guessing you wanted this?

I guess it does give the advantage of keeping the coast and the mid Willamette valley together. No particular major partisan changes either way if you just put Lincoln in red while putting more of Yamhill in Blue.

Yeah, or something similar. Was just thinking in terms of CoI rather than partisanship---a fair map of Oregon is probably 3-3 or 3-2-1 no matter what happens here.

[lfromnj]

@sol I am guessing you wanted this?

I guess it does give the advantage of keeping the coast and the mid Willamette valley together. No particular major partisan changes either way if you just put Lincoln in red while putting more of Yamhill in Blue.

Yeah, or something similar. Was just thinking in terms of CoI rather than partisanship---a fair map of Oregon is probably 3-3 or 3-2-1 no matter what happens here.

Oh yeah I know the partisanship barely matters here. The red district does shift 1 point to the right compared to a coastal split altough as noted that's a very small shift and the main argument here is COI. What did you do in South Oregon?

Anyway Its pretty obvious why I made red district 3 county splits. I felt like Woodburn and Newburg should be with the Portland metro rather than going deeper into Yamhill or Marion to place with the metro.

[Sol]

@sol I am guessing you wanted this?

I guess it does give the advantage of keeping the coast and the mid Willamette valley together. No particular major partisan changes either way if you just put Lincoln in red while putting more of Yamhill in Blue.

Yeah, or something similar. Was just thinking in terms of CoI rather than partisanship---a fair map of Oregon is probably 3-3 or 3-2-1 no matter what happens here.

Oh yeah I know the partisanship barely matters here. The red district does shift 1 point to the right compared to a coastal split altough as noted that's a very small shift and the main argument here is COI. What did you do in South Oregon?

Anyway Its pretty obvious why I made red 3 counties. I felt like Woodburn and Newburg should be with the Portland metro rather than going deeper into Yamhill or Marion to place with the metro.

Here's what I've been playing with, though it's not so final or thought out.

[lfromnj]

@sol I am guessing you wanted this?

I guess it does give the advantage of keeping the coast and the mid Willamette valley together. No particular major partisan changes either way if you just put Lincoln in red while putting more of Yamhill in Blue.

Yeah, or something similar. Was just thinking in terms of CoI rather than partisanship---a fair map of Oregon is probably 3-3 or 3-2-1 no matter what happens here.

Oh yeah I know the partisanship barely matters here. The red district does shift 1 point to the right compared to a coastal split altough as noted that's a very small shift and the main argument here is COI. What did you do in South Oregon?

Anyway Its pretty obvious why I made red 3 counties. I felt like Woodburn and Newburg should be with the Portland metro rather than going deeper into Yamhill or Marion to place with the metro.

Here's what I've been playing with, though it's not so final or thought out.

Yeah just a few questions to do in a fair map.
Does Hood river go with the east or the west?

Do you split or keep the northern half of the coast together?

What is the split in Jackson County.

And then just some basic questions in what goes with the 3 Portland districts as the Portland metro isn't fully 3 districts although it is close to it.

The new central Oregon district no matter will be fairly swingy as Linn+ Benton basically cancel each other out and there isn't any deep blue or red counties nearby.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I felt like Woodburn and Newburg should be with the Portland metro rather than going deeper into Yamhill or Marion to place with the metro.

Agreed. The mid-Valley traditionally consists of Linn, Benton, Polk, and Marion. Add in Lincoln and you have a perfect district's worth of population. At this point Yamhill should really be considered part of exurban Portland and treated accordingly.

This is what I have right now:


With 2020 numbers, I'm sure the Wasco cut can be dropped. I do hate putting Tigard in the Clackamas district though, so something like this in Metro PDX might actually reflect COIs better even if it cuts the city: