Florida Jews

[King of Kensington]

Why did Trump crack 40% with Florida Jews?

Don't think the Orthodox/immigrant lean of Miami-Dade does enough to explain it.  

A more practical business-oriented as opposed to "liberal intellectual" community?  Just the more conservative political culture of the state?  Israel being an especially big issue among elderly retirees?

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Native son (Florida Jew of Moroccan Sephardic heritage) David Shor:

Most voters are not liberals. If we polarize the electorate on ideology — or if nationally prominent Democrats raise the salience of issues that polarize the electorate on ideology — we’re going to lose a lot of votes.

Spoiler alert: Shor tweet

Show

https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1397584839855968265

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/fsholars/status/1394416652113022976

[King of Kensington]

Jewish vote (AP Votecast Survey)

Massachusetts 85-14
California 82-18
Connecticut 80-19
Maryland 79-20
Illinois 77-20
Pennsylvania 72-26
New Jersey 70-30
New York 58-41
Florida 56-43

[Sol]

I don't know if the same age polarization that we see among gentiles obtains among Jewish people, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's a big influence, particularly as older Jewish retirees die off and are replaced by more assimilated younger retirees with fewer ties to left-wing politics but equally strong Zionist attitudes.

[King of Kensington]

And there's probably some selection among retirees too (Jewish and non-Jewish): liberals opt for the Berkshires, conservatives opt for Florida.

[Schiff for Senate]

Jewish vote (AP Votecast Survey)

Massachusetts 85-14
California 82-18
Connecticut 80-19
Maryland 79-20
Illinois 77-20
Pennsylvania 72-26
New Jersey 70-30
New York 58-41
Florida 56-43

Why are MA, CA, CT and MD Jews so overwhelmingly Democratic?! The ones in MA vote as Democratic as whites in the rural south and are not very much behind African-Americans in the south. I get IL's Biden+57 figure since most live in Chicago (thogh I wonder why IL Jews are a full 40 points more Democratic than NY's), but I don't understand the +61 result in CT, the +64 result in CA, or the +71 result in MA, at all.

[King of Kensington]

The Jewish population in New England and on the West Coast is very secular and there are very few Orthodox.  

In the NYC area, lots more Orthodox, immigrant and traditional Jews.

[King of Kensington]

In states like IL and PA, the majority of Jews live in affluent, culturally liberal, blue-trending suburbs like Chicago's North Shore or Philadelphia's Main Line.  The NYC area given its sheer number of Jews (around 2 million) has more Reform Jews and intermarried Jews than anywhere on earth.  But liberals in affluent suburbs are in the minority.  The percentage belonging to the Reform movement is lower than anywhere else in America while Orthodox is much higher.  Fewer are intermarried.  A higher percentage send children to day school, keep kosher and Sabbath and so on.  Altogether that gives NY Jewry a much more politically conservative lean.

[coloradocowboi]

Native son (Florida Jew of Moroccan Sephardic heritage) David Shor:

Most voters are not liberals. If we polarize the electorate on ideology — or if nationally prominent Democrats raise the salience of issues that polarize the electorate on ideology — we’re going to lose a lot of votes.

Spoiler alert: Shor tweet

Show

https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1397584839855968265

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/fsholars/status/1394416652113022976

First of all, if we take liberalism to mean "socially liberal, fiscally conservative, pro law and order"--it's actual meaning, then the majority of Americans are liberal. I suspect he's referring to left-progressivism here, and also probably incorrect still albeit less so.

I don't think it's smart to cite a median 1-3 percentage point shift, during a huge turnout election, as evidence that Americans are ideologically homogenous and "assimilating" differences. For example, LGBTQ people live very separate lives from the mainstream, but Trump likely picked up support from them (tho one GLAAD poll contests this). Why? The evidence we have suggests he mostly picked up support from younger, white gay men who don't normally vote. So, to say that LGBTQ people are "normal" and "not liberal" and "moving toward the GOP" is pretty disingenuous. Rather, the current far-right GOP has motivated the most conservative LGBTQs to turn out, mostly white men attached to capitalism and against "cancel culture."

All of this is to say, instead of this pointing to a shift toward "assimilation", it points to the fact that there is more internal diversity in marginalized groups than often recognized. And the data we see elsewhere supports that. It's already well-documented that: A. Trump improved most with Latinos who identified as white or had roots in specific communities, e.g. Venezuelans, Cubans...; B. In places like LA, almost all of his growth (which has been exagerrated anyway) came from low-turnout evangelicals coming out to vote and not so much "former Democrats"; and C. recent polls repeatedly show that Latinos leaving the Dems lean left as much as they do to the center and are still suspicious of the GOP. There is no evidence that Latinos are, like clockwork, slowly moving the GOP which makes sense because they are people not variables lol. Similarly, Black men, esp. those motivated by transgender politics and other cultural issues, and African Americans with money were more likely to go GOP than Black women or LGTBQs, whose #s from 2016 barely budged.

TL;DR: What Shor thinks can be explained by broad, transcendental ideological commonalities are only explained *in the data itself* by microdifferences within marginalized communities. This is important because it demonstrates that the GOP's outreach strategy to minorities hinges on them being able to reach these black swan voters that buck trends. I am confident that in 2022, the GOP will get no more than 15% of the Black vote, probably closer to 12, and no more than 35% of the Latino vote. The fact remains that majorities of both communities hold values that are anathema to GOP politics, & moreover the ongoing Pink Scare against "SJW-cancel culture-socialism" exacerbates divisions as much as it capitalizes on them.

Anyway, others have answered the original question pretty satisfyingly using the microdynamics that I wanna go on the record saying are so important. Florida's Orthodox, Zionist, and elderly populations make it fertile ground for GOP outreach efforts.

[King of Kensington]

I suspect the Jewish population % in FL is dropping, given that 1) they're likely a lower share of Boomer retirees than earlier cohorts were of retirees, and 2) Jewish Boomer retirees more dispersed than earlier generations. 

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Native son (Florida Jew of Moroccan Sephardic heritage) David Shor:

Most voters are not liberals. If we polarize the electorate on ideology — or if nationally prominent Democrats raise the salience of issues that polarize the electorate on ideology — we’re going to lose a lot of votes.

Spoiler alert: Shor tweet

Show

https://twitter.com/davidshor/status/1397584839855968265

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/fsholars/status/1394416652113022976

-snip-

TL;DR: What Shor thinks can be explained by broad, transcendental ideological commonalities are only explained *in the data itself* by microdifferences within marginalized communities. This is important because it demonstrates that the GOP's outreach strategy to minorities hinges on them being able to reach these black swan voters that buck trends.

To be honest, I think the 2020 R swings/trends among black, Latino, and Asian voters were mostly caused by increased turnout of lower-propensity voters who aren't (and never could possibly be) as one-sidedly D as higher-frequency voters. In hindsight, some R trend among black voters was inevitable given generational turnover and Obama not being the incumbent. And some R trend among Latinos and Asians was inevitable when you factor in the pre-COVID economy. This doesn't necessarily apply to Jewish voters but the "higher turnout = less one-sided percentage margins" point probably holds?

[King of Kensington]

Any data from heavily Jewish precincts?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Jewish vote (AP Votecast Survey)

Massachusetts 85-14
California 82-18
Connecticut 80-19
Maryland 79-20
Illinois 77-20
Pennsylvania 72-26
New Jersey 70-30
New York 58-41
Florida 56-43

That sheer gap between Florida and Massachusetts is quite insane, though it's easy to see why it exists.
It's also not impossible Jewish voters are also influenced by native-son factors; Trump probably got such an effect in 2016 and 2020.

[King of Kensington]

Orthodox households

Baltimore  21%
New York  20%
Miami  11%
Cleveland  10%
Detroit  9%
Philadelphia  8%
Chicago  7%
Washington  5%
Boston  4%
San Francisco  3%

[Horus]

Orthodox households

Baltimore  21%
New York  20%
Miami  11%
Cleveland  10%
Detroit  9%
Philadelphia  8%
Chicago  7%
Washington  5%
Boston  4%
San Francisco  3%

It's interesting that despite Baltimore being more Orthodox than New York, there are no Republican precincts in the NW of the city, where they're based.

Also Florida Jews are more likely to be Sephardic, more likely to be assimilated (yet paradoxically also more Zionist) and more likely to be hardscrabble/working class so the 43% number definitely checks out.

[King of Kensington]

Maryland's Jewish population is evenly split between Baltimore area and suburban DC (mostly in Montgomery County, the main Jewish concentration in the DC metro).  While there's a small Orthodox pocket in Silver Spring, DC area Jews have got to be like 90% D.

Baltimore matches NY's Orthodox share, but it doesn't have a lot of Sephardic Jews or Jews from the Former Soviet Union and so on which also add to the right-wing side.  I'm not sure if Orthodox are actually majority in any Baltimore precinct.  

[Sol]

It's interesting that despite Baltimore being more Orthodox than New York, there are no Republican precincts in the NW of the city, where they're based.

This is not actually true!

[King of Kensington]

Also Florida Jews are more likely to be Sephardic, more likely to be assimilated (yet paradoxically also more Zionist) and more likely to be hardscrabble/working class so the 43% number definitely checks out.

Not sure what you mean by "more assimilated" - compared to NYC Jewry yes but not compared to other cities.  If they're more Zionist and more likely to live in Jewish enclaves, that's a sign of less assimilation even if they're not Orthodox. "Hardscrabble/working class" is probably true - practical minded business types from humble backgrounds are more common in Florida I think.  The "liberal intellectual" side of the community is underrepresented.

[King of Kensington]

This is not actually true!

It's pretty clear where Baltimore's Orthodox Jews live from that map.