VA-Mason Dixon: Only Biden ahead of Trump
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  VA-Mason Dixon: Only Biden ahead of Trump
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Author Topic: VA-Mason Dixon: Only Biden ahead of Trump  (Read 10155 times)
heatcharger
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« Reply #25 on: December 31, 2019, 11:55:12 AM »

Nice of you, Politician, for reminding us that Bernie and Warren do worse in basically every poll than Biden. Thanks!
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #26 on: December 31, 2019, 11:55:58 AM »

Of course Atlas is buying this poll Roll Eyes Sanders losing VA by 6 is about as believable as him winning OH by 8. But whatever feeds people’s narratives, I guess.
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Gracile
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« Reply #27 on: December 31, 2019, 11:56:21 AM »

Yeah, sure...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #28 on: December 31, 2019, 12:02:27 PM »

A scandal involving a President's family members slide. Neil Bush managed a savings-and-loot into bankruptcy while his father was President, and Democrats did not exploit that.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #29 on: December 31, 2019, 12:13:41 PM »
« Edited: December 31, 2019, 12:35:31 PM by President Griffin »

LOL, every Democrat will win Virginia against Trump: the margins may vary but the outcome will not.

In all likelihood, this poll sample is overly (moderate) Republican and as any GE campaign heats up, Bipartiden's favorables and appeal will get shredded, with those voters hunkering down where they always were going to be (with Trump).

After all, Virginia is basically the national capital of "economically conservative and socially liberal" and "I'm a very thoughtful and deliberate swing voter (not)".
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #30 on: December 31, 2019, 12:25:28 PM »

Sanders would not lose Virginia, let alone lose it by 6.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #31 on: December 31, 2019, 12:36:25 PM »
« Edited: December 31, 2019, 12:40:59 PM by MT Treasurer »

Of course Atlas is buying this poll Roll Eyes Sanders losing VA by 6 is about as believable as him winning OH by 8. But whatever feeds people’s narratives, I guess.
Any poll showing Georgia voting D - "TRUTH!"
Any poll showing something that contradicts my narrative - "JUNK"

Yes, because Trump losing GA (narrowly) is believable, Trump winning VA really isn’t.

I’m a mild-mannered person, but I have ZERO tolerance for the "VA is a swing state" crowd. That said, I’m not going to let this poll raise my blood pressure on New Year's Eve.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #32 on: December 31, 2019, 12:45:21 PM »

Of course Atlas is buying this poll Roll Eyes Sanders losing VA by 6 is about as believable as him winning OH by 8. But whatever feeds people’s narratives, I guess.
Any poll showing Georgia voting D - "TRUTH!"
Any poll showing something that contradicts my narrative - "JUNK"

Yes, because Trump losing GA (narrowly) is believable, Trump winning VA really isn’t.

I’m a mild-mannered person, but I have ZERO tolerance for the "VA is a swing state" crowd. That said, I’m not going to let this poll raise my blood pressure on New Year's Eve.

You have all of 2020 to get that hypertension going, Indyrep!
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #33 on: December 31, 2019, 12:47:40 PM »

A scandal involving a President's family members slide. Neil Bush managed a savings-and-loot into bankruptcy while his father was President, and Democrats did not exploit that.

The scandal you talk about was the looting of Savings and Loan Scandal of the 1980s, which was well-documented by the book, Inside Job by Steven Pizzo, Mary Fricker, and Paul Muolo:



The reason the Democrats didn't make hay over Neil Bush is because the S & L scandal was a massive scandal, and a bi-partisan scandal.  It involved gross mismanagement of the S & L industry by the regulators (whose power and numbers were cut back by Reagan).  The industry was "deregulated" essentially to make riskier loans using commercial properties as collateral, and to make loans on properties far away from their home bases.  It allowed for massive "growth" of these institutions, which ended in default and bankruptcy for these institutions, for investors, and for many ordinary individuals.  At the time, it was one of the biggest financial failures in our history, requiring a record bailout through the RTC (Resolution Trust Corporation).

And it was a BI-PARTISAN scandal.  It involved the Keating Five (Sens DeConcini, Glenn, Riegle, Cranston, and McCain; four (4) Democrats and one (1) Republican).  It was favors to S & L crooks in Texas that led to the downfall of Speaker Jim Wright (D-TX).  It led to massive investigations of Democratic political figures in Louisiana, including Judge Edmund Reggie, the father of Ted Kennedy's second wife.  It was a bi-partisan scandal, to be sure; many of the non-elected scandalous figures were major GOP activists, but it was very much an INSIDER scandal that the Democrats were not free to exploit, just because Neil Bush was part of it.  And it involved the sort of sketchy characters that would have made a great movie; politicians, moneymen, arms dealers, mobsters, CIA operatives, all were part of the looting, or the enabling of the looting.

Neil Bush, who's a privileged weasel, was, nonetheless, a minor part of that scandal, albeit a symbol of it.  He had no experience in running an S & L, yet he's at the top of one.  Why did he get on the Board of a S & L?  The answer is the same as the reason why Hunter Biden came to sit on Burisma's Board of Directors.  The scandal was much, much bigger, and included immediately recognizable names of both parties.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #34 on: December 31, 2019, 12:59:41 PM »

If this is true (99-1 it's not) then Trump is heading for a Clinton 1996 victory.
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YE
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« Reply #35 on: December 31, 2019, 01:01:17 PM »

Polling 10 months out brings the worst in Atlas.
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Gracile
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« Reply #36 on: December 31, 2019, 01:07:04 PM »

Of course Atlas is buying this poll Roll Eyes Sanders losing VA by 6 is about as believable as him winning OH by 8. But whatever feeds people’s narratives, I guess.
Any poll showing Georgia voting D - "TRUTH!"
Any poll showing something that contradicts my narrative - "JUNK"

Why are you assuming that people base their entire opinion off of polling, or that polling is the primary tool people should use when predicting election results? I can’t speak for others here, but I’ve followed polling long enough to realize it’s predictive power has greatly diminished over the past few years when compared to actual election results. Not to mention polling of individual states often fails to account for a given state’s demographics, and pollsters often don’t weight accordingly.

None of this is to say that all polls are fake or that polling in general is useless. There are plenty of pollsters whose methodology is sound enough to pay attention. However, polling should be one of many factors one takes into account, and it is disingenuous to imply that we should every poll as gospel.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #37 on: December 31, 2019, 01:24:30 PM »
« Edited: December 31, 2019, 01:31:17 PM by Frenchrepublican »

LOL, every Democrat will win Virginia against Trump: the margins may vary but the outcome will not.

In all likelihood, this poll sample is overly (moderate) Republican and as any GE campaign heats up, Bipartiden's favorables and appeal will get shredded, with those voters hunkering down where they always were going to be (with Trump).

After all, Virginia is basically the national capital of "economically conservative and socially liberal" and "I'm a very thoughtful and deliberate swing voter (not)".

You're right on this one. At the moment something like that would not be surprising :
 Biden vs Trump : Biden wins 53/45
Buttigieg vs Trump : Buttigieg wins 52/45
Warren vs Trump : Warren wins 51/46
Sanders vs Trump : Sanders 50/46
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #38 on: December 31, 2019, 01:54:20 PM »

I can't see any Democrat losing VA to Trump unless there is some sort of backlash of the wealthy voting for Trump out of their own financial interests if he's facing Warren or Sanders.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #39 on: December 31, 2019, 02:17:35 PM »

The gun sanctuary going on within the state seems to be helping Trump.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #40 on: December 31, 2019, 04:03:54 PM »

The Republicans haven't won a statewide race in the state in more than a decade, Tim Kaine won reelection by 16 points,  and the state voters just gave both chambers of the legislature to the Democrats... it's a blue state and suggesting that any Democrat would lose it to Donald Trump is ludicrious... it might be a closer race if Bernie or Warren is the nominee, but I doubt they would lose it.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #41 on: December 31, 2019, 04:04:50 PM »

The gun sanctuary going on within the state seems to be helping Trump.

Like how "post-birth abortion", Fairfax's rape scandals, and Northam's blackface were supposed to help the GOP hold the state legislature?
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swords
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« Reply #42 on: December 31, 2019, 05:02:37 PM »

LOL, every Democrat will win Virginia against Trump: the margins may vary but the outcome will not.

In all likelihood, this poll sample is overly (moderate) Republican and as any GE campaign heats up, Bipartiden's favorables and appeal will get shredded, with those voters hunkering down where they always were going to be (with Trump).

After all, Virginia is basically the national capital of "economically conservative and socially liberal" and "I'm a very thoughtful and deliberate swing voter (not)".

not at all. This one oversampled democrats.... D +12% Poll.  sorry

Among the 625 respondents, 42% described themselves as Democrats, 30% as Republicans and 28% as independents.

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #43 on: December 31, 2019, 05:29:19 PM »

The gun sanctuary going on within the state seems to be helping Trump.


There is something inherently wrong with Trump, which wants to keep the Rich happy and dont want to help poor. This is why VA, which was an R state with Evangelicals,  became a D state, Evangelicals are conservative,  but help the poor.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #44 on: December 31, 2019, 06:30:42 PM »

Hahaha! This is way less accurate than their Florida poll.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #45 on: December 31, 2019, 06:36:59 PM »

Of course Atlas is buying this poll Roll Eyes Sanders losing VA by 6 is about as believable as him winning OH by 8. But whatever feeds people’s narratives, I guess.
Any poll showing Georgia voting D - "TRUTH!"
Any poll showing something that contradicts my narrative - "JUNK"

Yes, because Trump losing GA (narrowly) is believable, Trump winning VA really isn’t.

I’m a mild-mannered person, but I have ZERO tolerance for the "VA is a swing state" crowd. That said, I’m not going to let this poll raise my blood pressure on New Year's Eve.

It doesn't mean that VA is back to being a swing state, but it does add another datapoint in favor of the recent wave of national polls with a clear Trump PV lead.  This is feeling more and more like 1996 with the parties reversed (Trump obviously can't match Clinton's PV margin because of California, but I wouldn't dismiss the potential for a 51/47ish win if the economy stays this good).
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #46 on: December 31, 2019, 06:43:33 PM »
« Edited: December 31, 2019, 06:49:04 PM by President Griffin »

LOL, every Democrat will win Virginia against Trump: the margins may vary but the outcome will not.

In all likelihood, this poll sample is overly (moderate) Republican and as any GE campaign heats up, Bipartiden's favorables and appeal will get shredded, with those voters hunkering down where they always were going to be (with Trump).

After all, Virginia is basically the national capital of "economically conservative and socially liberal" and "I'm a very thoughtful and deliberate swing voter (not)".

not at all. This one oversampled democrats.... D +12% Poll.  sorry

Among the 625 respondents, 42% described themselves as Democrats, 30% as Republicans and 28% as independents.

The fact that it's a D+12 poll where not a single Democrat is leading by more than 4 further illustrates my point; the fact that party ID for this poll in a state like Virginia produces a result more like what a similar gap would produce in Louisiana says everything. You're also simplistically (or perhaps conveniently) ignoring the fact that nearly 3 in 10 voters don't fall into either major category of party ID - unless you think third party candidates are going to get 28% of the vote in 2020?

Trump won independents in VA by 5 in 2016. He'd need to win them by more than 2:1 based on this poll for the math to work out (either that, or you need to explain how/why Democrats are losing like 1 in 4 self-identified Democratic voters that they didn't lose in 2016).

Throw. It. In. The. Trash. And throw VA into the Safe Democratic basket while we're at it.
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« Reply #47 on: December 31, 2019, 06:44:48 PM »

Of course Atlas is buying this poll Roll Eyes Sanders losing VA by 6 is about as believable as him winning OH by 8. But whatever feeds people’s narratives, I guess.
Any poll showing Georgia voting D - "TRUTH!"
Any poll showing something that contradicts my narrative - "JUNK"

Well, a Democrat winning Georgia is at least plausible, even if Trump is favored. A Democrat losing Virginia goes against pretty much every election result of the past decade, unless they’re losing very badly. Now, if multiple reputable pollsters showed the Democrat down in VA in September/October and also showed Trump ahead in the PV, maybe then VA could conceivably go for Trump, but there’s no reason to believe that VA is in danger in a close race.
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SN2903
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« Reply #48 on: December 31, 2019, 11:03:30 PM »

Trump will win Virginia against anyone other than Biden.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #49 on: December 31, 2019, 11:44:25 PM »

The gun sanctuary going on within the state seems to be helping Trump.

Like how "post-birth abortion", Fairfax's rape scandals, and Northam's blackface were supposed to help the GOP hold the state legislature?

Maybe Trump's getting a Kavanaugh boost in this poll.
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