FL-Mason Dixon: Only Biden ahead of Trump

[President Johnson]

It's early and Florida is probably the toughest state to flip that Hillary lost by less than 5% in 2016. However, the Bern is a bad fit for the Sun Belt, while Joe Biden is competitive in the Sun- and Rust Belts. And he's probably to only one that has Florida as tossup (tilt to lean Republican with anybody else). Despite the Ukraine hoax from Trump's machine, Joe Biden is the most dangerous challenger for him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Florida President by Mason-Dixon on 2019-12-16

Summary: D: 47%, R: 45%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Biden will also lose here.

No, FL has a minimum wage ballot initiative and Latinos are looking for PR statehood, FL only leans R in midterms, where they like to keep taxes low due to no state income tax

[President Johnson]

It's early and Florida is probably the toughest state to flip that Hillary lost by less than 5% in 2016. However, the Bern is a bad fit for the Sun Belt, while Joe Biden is competitive in the Sun- and Rust Belts. And he's probably to only one that has Florida as tossup (tilt to lean Republican with anybody else). Despite the Ukraine hoax from Trump's machine, Joe Biden is the most dangerous challenger for him.

[UncleSam]

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.

I don't think it's at all strange.  There are certainly some on the right who don't like Trump for various reasons, but would vote for him to "save the country from being led into Socialism" by someone like Sanders or Warren.  Biden isn't perceived as the same threat, so those people are open to voting for him.

I can confirm that I’d vote Biden and probably Buttigieg but would probably vote Trump over the others. It mostly comes down to agreeing more with Democrats (and thinking Trump is awful), but I also work and make pretty good money in the healthcare industry, and M4A would probably put myself and a lot of other people completely out of work. So that’s just not something I’m going to mess with, even if I generally like Sanders and Warren as people.

So ya I think this poll is very reasonable and probably is best for Buttigieg if you’re reading deeply into it - he is primarily behind Biden because of name rec still, particularly among minority voters. In a GE I’ll bet that he would outperform Biden, but Biden will still do fine.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.

I don't think it's at all strange.  There are certainly some on the right who don't like Trump for various reasons, but would vote for him to "save the country from being led into Socialism" by someone like Sanders or Warren.  Biden isn't perceived as the same threat, so those people are open to voting for him.

I can confirm that I’d vote Biden and probably Buttigieg but would probably vote Trump over the others. It mostly comes down to agreeing more with Democrats (and thinking Trump is awful), but I also work and make pretty good money in the healthcare industry, and M4A would probably put myself and a lot of other people completely out of work. So that’s just not something I’m going to mess with, even if I generally like Sanders and Warren as people.

So ya I think this poll is very reasonable and probably is best for Buttigieg if you’re reading deeply into it - he is primarily behind Biden because of name rec still, particularly among minority voters. In a GE I’ll bet that he would outperform Biden, but Biden will still do fine.

I would vote for Biden or Mayor Pete in a heartbeat, but I'd be super hesitant to vote for either Bernie or Warren (even though I like them as people). 

[pbrower2a]

Take these polls with a grain of salt, since the majority of statewide elections in FL this decade have been decided by less than 2 points.

...and, more, exactly as the Republicans need unless the Democrat is a sure winner. Florida is close to the national average in Presidential elections, but it never decides for a Democrat.   Even in 2018 it was close to the position in which it could decide the Senate majority.

I don't know if it means much, but President Trump changed his official residence from New York to Florida. Favorite-son identity also changes. Trump got much publicity in the NYC metro area whose TV market includes also southwestern Connecticut and northeastern New Jersey, three of his worst states in the 2016 Presidential election. Usually being from an area is a political asset -- if one fits the local political culture. Donald Trump could be one of those people whom, the better one knows him, the less people like him.

My assessment remains: Florida is in a tier of four states (Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio are the others) that make the difference between about 295 electoral votes and 375 electoral votes for the Democrat. Those four states will be very close to each other, and they will be the difference between a bare D win and a low-end landslide (Obama 2008 or Bill Clinton in 1992 or 1996). Trump wins or loses these states together.    

[Adam Griffin]

LOL, every Democrat will win Virginia lose Florida against Trump: the margins may vary but the outcome will not.

[Pollster]

Florida will not be won by more than 3 points either way, unless a massive megahurricane kills thousands in Miami or the panhandle.

[Frenchrepublican]

LOL, every Democrat will win Virginia lose Florida against Trump: the margins may vary but the outcome will not.

You have probably a point here

My opinion as of now would be this :
Biden vs Trump : Trump wins by 2 (50.5/48.5 for Trump).
Buttigieg vs Trump : Trump wins by 2.5 (50.5/48 for Trump).
Warren vs Trump : Trump wins by 3 (51/48 for Trump).
Sanders vs Trump : Trump wins by 4 (51/47 for Trump).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LOL, every Democrat will win Virginia lose Florida against Trump: the margins may vary but the outcome will not.

You have probably a point here

Why do you think Dems will lose FL? The state voted for Obama-Biden 2x and Gwen Graham would have won, because she was a moderate,  not a Gillum Liberal. The state is Latino, Puerto Ricans looking for statehood; as a result,  that's why they have a minimum wage Ballot initiative 

[Frenchrepublican]

LOL, every Democrat will win Virginia lose Florida against Trump: the margins may vary but the outcome will not.

You have probably a point here

Why do you think Dems will lose FL? The state voted for Obama-Biden 2x and Gwen Graham would have won, because she was a moderate,  not a Gillum Liberal. The state is Latino, Puerto Ricans looking for statehood; as a result,  that's why they have a minimum wage Ballot initiative 

What is this non sense ?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Everyone, says it's a Cuban state, but most Latinos are Puerto Ricans

[Frenchrepublican]

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.

I don't think it's at all strange.  There are certainly some on the right who don't like Trump for various reasons, but would vote for him to "save the country from being led into Socialism" by someone like Sanders or Warren.  Biden isn't perceived as the same threat, so those people are open to voting for him.

I can confirm that I’d vote Biden and probably Buttigieg but would probably vote Trump over the others. It mostly comes down to agreeing more with Democrats (and thinking Trump is awful), but I also work and make pretty good money in the healthcare industry, and M4A would probably put myself and a lot of other people completely out of work. So that’s just not something I’m going to mess with, even if I generally like Sanders and Warren as people.

So ya I think this poll is very reasonable and probably is best for Buttigieg if you’re reading deeply into it - he is primarily behind Biden because of name rec still, particularly among minority voters. In a GE I’ll bet that he would outperform Biden, but Biden will still do fine.

Yeah, but people like you aren't numerous. You hate Trump, you don't want to vote for him, but you would be open to voting for him if the democratic candidate runs on a Medicare for all platform ? 98% of persons who despise Trump will vote against him no matter who is his opponent, maybe you're part of the 4% of true swing voters but you're a exception.

[Frenchrepublican]

Everyone, says it's a Cuban state, but most Latinos are Puerto Ricans

What's the link between this ''The state is Latino, Puerto Ricans looking for statehood;'' and this  ''as a result,  that's why they have a minimum wage Ballot initiative'' ? 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If PR gets statehood, they will get equal representation in DC, 2 Democrats going to the Senate, that will help Dems keep their majority;subsequently,  campaign finance reform and gun control will be unclogged,  by Leader Schumer, instead of McConnell.

Obama passed DC statehood in 2009, by Senator Kyl filibustered it, and when Specter flipped and gave Dems 60 votes, he told GOP leaders he wasnt gonna help pass DC statehood. It was 59.5 votes, not 60 votes, with Specter's defection

[538Electoral]

Not even Biden would win the state against Trump in my opinion.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not even Biden would win the state against Trump in my opinion.

Yeah right. Fox has held Biden has been leading Trump by 5

[GeorgiaModerate]

You can tell it's a slow polling period when two unremarkable Mason-Dixon polls get to two pages each within a few hours.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This translates to a Trump lead of about 1%...as most Florida polls will.

[Skill and Chance]

Anyways,
it's great to see Mason-Dixon starting polling Battleground States again. They went completely into hiding after 2012.

M/D did very well in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana this year.

Good, that we don't have to rely on those crappy University Polls like Quinnipiac and CNN/SSrS.

I agree their polls were pretty accurate concerning the 2019 Gov races but it’s very hard to see how their VA and FL polls can be true at the same time

I don't think it's strange at all that Biden would have a uniquely strong appeal with Florida retirees?
Florida shifting left relative to the PV with Biden and strongly right with the other top contenders is a pretty sensible result, I think. 

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

FL is a tossup, sorry Atlas.

Who said it wasn't anything close to that?

[TDAS04]

LOL, every Democrat will win Virginia lose Florida against Trump: the margins may vary but the outcome will not.

Sure, if the Democratic nominee is like an Atlasian and assumes that Trump has FL locked down.

Seriously, Florida is competitive.  I’d give the Democratic candidate at least a 40% chance of winning it.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Believable. If 2020 is another D wave, Biden will win FL. Not sure about the others though

[AN63093]

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.

There are more of these people than you may think.  Heck, you're looking at one (or, at least, potentially one... I never really decide who I'm voting for until the day before, sometimes day of).

I think your perspective may be skewed since these types of voters are probably among the least likely to tweet, write something in comments sections, etc.  Naturally those that feel strongest about Trump are going to be those you're always hearing from.  No offense but I think Atlas has probably had a role in skewing your perspective.

I suspect most of your disbelief stems from the fact that you have little to no day-to-day, in person experiences of living in a competitive swing district (as I do).  Many of my friends, peers and co-workers in my industry are moderates, independents, or even apolitical, and so on.  Many of us, including myself, are older, have houses, families etc.  No one (as far as I know) seems to be involved in online political conversation (this forum is actually the only place I ever talk about politics at all).  90%+ of our discussions have to do with stuff like football or mundane life things.  I can count the time politics has come up in a conversation on one hand, and on several of those occasions, a "I'd vote for Biden, but possibly Trump over the other Dems" opinion was expressed.

Now that is all anecdotal, so perhaps borderline useless- but let me put it this way.  You say that you don't think these voters are more than 2% of the electorate, which is probably more-or-less accurate... the number of actual persuadable voters these days has to be, what, <5% of the electorate?  I would not think that an over-representation of these voters in a state like FL is inconsistent with that nor would it be particularly out-landish.. in fact, I would generally expect that in a state that votes like FL.  Consider also that it's possible this type of voter is more likely to be older, which is also consistent with FL's demographics.

[Frenchrepublican]

I find really strange that there are, at least according to this poll, so many people who would vote Biden (in a Trump/Biden matchup) but who would vote Trump when he is paired against another democrat, I mean you either like Trump or you hate him, there is no middle ground with him.

There are more of these people than you may think.  Heck, you're looking at one (or, at least, potentially one... I never really decide who I'm voting for until the day before, sometimes day of).

I think your perspective may be skewed since these types of voters are probably among the least likely to tweet, write something in comments sections, etc.  Naturally those that feel strongest about Trump are going to be those you're always hearing from.  No offense but I think Atlas has probably had a role in skewing your perspective.

I suspect most of your disbelief stems from the fact that you have little to no day-to-day, in person experiences of living in a competitive swing district (as I do).  Many of my friends, peers and co-workers in my industry are moderates, independents, or even apolitical, and so on.  Many of us, including myself, are older, have houses, families etc.  No one (as far as I know) seems to be involved in online political conversation (this forum is actually the only place I ever talk about politics at all).  90%+ of our discussions have to do with stuff like football or mundane life things.  I can count the time politics has come up in a conversation on one hand, and on several of those occasions, a "I'd vote for Biden, but possibly Trump over the other Dems" opinion was expressed.

Now that is all anecdotal, so perhaps borderline useless- but let me put it this way.  You say that you don't think these voters are more than 2% of the electorate, which is probably more-or-less accurate... the number of actual persuadable voters these days has to be, what, <5% of the electorate?  I would not think that an over-representation of these voters in a state like FL is inconsistent with that nor would it be particularly out-landish.. in fact, I would generally expect that in a state that votes like FL.  Consider also that it's possible this type of voter is more likely to be older, which is also consistent with FL's demographics.

From what I have read and from what I know, these voters are generally college educated men with a relatively high income, Florida doesn't have a lot of these voters, white voters in FL are generally less educated than the average white people and are not particulary well off either. I think the kind of voter we are talking about are overrepresented in places like the Dallas/Fort-Worth area, the Phoenix area and other metro areas with a large professional class, Florida is a close state (you probably already know this ) but it's also a very inelastic state, either you're a conservative white person or a older Cuban voter and you're going to vote for Trump or you're a non white person or maybe a white liberal (usually jewish) person and you're not going to vote for gim.