Could Yang become a top tier candidate?

[SN2903]

I like the guy. He clearly is focused on economic issues people care about but is getting nowhere in the polls. Why is he not doing better and could he get to top tier? I say yes.

[GeneralMacArthur]

No.  He's an annoying loser and needs to drop out.

[SN2903]

No.  He's an annoying loser and needs to drop out.

How is he annoying?
How is he a loser?
Him and Tulsi are the only democrats running appealing to people outside of the democratic base.

[SaneDemocrat]

No.  He's an annoying loser and needs to drop out.

How is he annoying?
How is he a loser?
Him and Tulsi are the only democrats running appealing to people outside of the democratic base.

Sanders appeals to non-voters as well.

[7,052,770]

He could. He probably won't, but it's clear that his platform has appeal from across the Democratic (and to some extent outside of it too) spectrum. The first day the UBI checks come in the mail, it will have over 90% support nationally.

[weixiaobao]

For him to be, there is a set of events that is outside of his control to happen.  The field is still too large, and a few of them had hardcore supporters that most likely won't switch sides.

1) The optimal candidate to drop out.  For example, for Warren, Sanders dropping out would be good.  Despite Sander supporters' number one second pick is Biden.  But if Sanders to drop out, Warren can make a stronger case for herself.  I think what the most unlikely and yet best for Yang is somehow Sanders lost both Iowa and New Hampshire.  I do believe Sanders has the most "hard" type supporters that would not likely to switch to anyone as long as he remained in.

2) The number of independents and republicans register as democrats this cycle.  Yang keep saying he can get Trump voters.  Well, unless that happened in the Primary (as opposed to the general), then it won't matter.  There are no value to be a registered republican this cycle since there isn't much of a Republican primary.  Some right-leaning supporters of Yang said they will register as a democrat.  I don't think this demographic is usually polled.  But even then, I do think that this is way too many hoops to jump just to participate in the primary.  Most probably won't do it.  But on the very unlikely chance that there are actually sizable voters that actually do that for Yang.  That may help him overperformed in some early states and keep him around for a bit.

3) Some huge scandals came out.  Sanders is the most dangerous to the Yang campaign.  He had already gone through one election cycle i.e. 2016 without much skeletons in the closet.  So I don't think he will sink via that sort of thing.  Warren did have a few integrity issues.  I don't see any of her liberal opponents bring up some of her lies in the past especially in terms of identity politics as a woman and a "minority."  Klobuchar and Buttigieg had some midsize scandals.  Will they got spiral out to something even bigger.  We will see.  I do hope the Urkaine incident sunk both Biden and Trump.  Rofl, if Buttigieg had some sex scandals that would be pretty juicy lol.

4) Endorsements- Yang has some interesting endorsements.  I do hope that since he hadn't really attack folks.  And is very friendly with everyone.  If some politicians start to endorse him.  It would give him some credentials just like the then-senator Sessions to Trump.  This is also unlikely.  But it would complement his outsider status.  Many saying without Washington exp, Yang isn't as qualified.  But if a few politicians start to support Yang.  That could change the narrative.

Too lazy to think of more right now.  

[7,052,770]

No.  He's an annoying loser and needs to drop out.

How is he annoying?
How is he a loser?
Him and Tulsi are the only democrats running appealing to people outside of the democratic base.

But Tulsi has basically no appeal to people inside the Democratic base, while Yang has a lot of it. Yang has been nothing but kind and uplifting to all of the other Democratic candidates and party leaders.

[Galeel]

I mean, he could, but it's really unlikely. Something crazy would have to happen very soon in order to get him in a place to compete in Iowa.

[SN2903]

I mean, he could, but it's really unlikely. Something crazy would have to happen very soon in order to get him in a place to compete in Iowa.

We need polls out of New Hampshire and Iowa.

[Orser67]

Probably not.

Better question: with Gabbard fading, will Yang become every Republican's favorite Democrat?

[James Monroe]

Probably not.

Better question: with Gabbard fading, will Yang become every Republican's favorite Democrat?

Bernie Sanders has goodwill from his time bashing the party. He and Gabbard are tight in a relationship, with Putin being the puppet controlling their campaigns.

[Gracile]

No. He’s been in the race so long already and he hasn’t taken off.

He’s just not a great candidate who can’t expand beyond his niche.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Every single election cycle there are multiple gimmicky primary candidates who sit at the bottom of the polls, and yet despite having 0% chance their supporters want to have endless conversations about them.

It's going to be the same in the general election, we'll have five threads a week about whether various third party candidates like Gary Johnson or Tulsi Gabbard or Howie Hawkins can break out.

The answer is NO.

And the gimmick of pretending these people have any relevance at all to what's actually happening in politics is extremely tired.  The only relevance they have is to act as spoilers in the event of a close race.

[SN2903]

Probably not.

Better question: with Gabbard fading, will Yang become every Republican's favorite Democrat?

Yes

[brucejoel99]

Nah, it's late enough in the game at this point that, given where he's currently polling, he won't take off, let alone to such a point that he's seen as top-tier.

[weixiaobao]

Nah, it's late enough in the game at this point that, given where he's currently polling, he won't take off, let alone to such a point that he's seen as top-tier.

What are you talking about willy?  Do you remember the 2012 election?  How did Santorum poll throughout 2011 prior to Iowa?

[brucejoel99]

Nah, it's late enough in the game at this point that, given where he's currently polling, he won't take off, let alone to such a point that he's seen as top-tier.

What are you talking about willy?  Do you remember the 2012 election?  How did Santorum poll throughout 2011 prior to Iowa?

8 years ago today, Santorum (who would go on to win Iowa) was polling as well as Pete (a top-tier candidate who is one of the favorites to win Iowa) is polling today. Barring something truly weird happening (but after all, this is American politics in 2019, so who the hell knows anymore?), it's
just too late for Yang to create a path to top-tier status.

[weixiaobao]

8 years ago today, Santorum (who would go on to win Iowa) was polling as well as Pete (a top-tier candidate who is one of the favorites to win Iowa) is polling today. Barring something truly weird happening (but after all, this is American politics in 2019, so who the hell knows anymore?), it's
just too late for Yang to create a path to top-tier status.

Well I do like how you just pulling stuffs out of wherever.  Is it that hard to just look up on wikipedia?  Come on, man.  The 2012 GOP primary dynamic is a tad different than the 2020 primary dynamic.  And Yang is indeed a long shot.  But to say Santorum is tied or statistically tie for first in Iowa and New Hampshire like Buttigieg.  Nationally, he wasn't even there at Buttigieg level.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#2011_polls

In early December, nationally, Santorum poll 2%.  In later December, he consistently poll 3 to 4%.  Only toward the new year, he got a bump.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_January_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Iowa_(January_3)

Mid december, Santorum polled slightly behind Klobuchar or about how much Klobuchar would poll right now.  His polls didn't increase until toward later december into the new year.  And even then, Ron Paul actually was ahead in many polls mid december.

just too late for Yang to create a path to top-tier status.

I gonna tell you how ridiculous you sound too.  Do you know when Iowa primary for the GOP that year?

January 3rd.  I gave you the timeline.  Santorum surging about one week before Iowa caucus.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

No.

Polling has been frozen for over a month now. Fundraising is slower than ever, and even the Yang Gang base on Twitter has been slowly shrinking.

His "moment" could've happened in October, or November, or this month - but it's too late now.

[weixiaobao]

His "moment" could've happened in October, or November, or this month - but it's too late now.

I am not against you as a Yang supporter.  I am against you from a pure political strategy perspective.  Harris, Warren, Buttigieg were treated as front runners.  I wasn't for Yang until the last debate.  But when those 3 rose in the polls, I told my friends, they peaked way too early.

I learned that lesson in 2012, when you are the nail that stuck up.  You got hammered down.  Perry, Cain, Gingrich.  When they up as front runners.  Scandals, media scrutiny, attacks by other candidates dragged them down.  No one accuses Cain of sexual misconduct until the very month, he was ahead in the poll.  They waited until Gingrich was the front runner, that the media talk about his previous marriage and how much of a hypocrite he was while impeaching Clinton.

And that same pattern played out in 2020.  Yang is unlikely gonna be the Santorum.  Klobuchar are more likely to be the Santorum.

But there is one debate to go, and one month to go.  If Klobuchar peak in the coming week, she will be the next hammer to knock down.  Paving the way for Sanders to win in Iowa.

And the gimmick of pretending these people have any relevance at all to what's actually happening in politics is extremely tired.  The only relevance they have is to act as spoilers in the event of a close race.

Stop posting in this thread then, you are feeding the trolls.  Go and post about a more relevant candidate.

[brucejoel99]

8 years ago today, Santorum (who would go on to win Iowa) was polling as well as Pete (a top-tier candidate who is one of the favorites to win Iowa) is polling today. Barring something truly weird happening (but after all, this is American politics in 2019, so who the hell knows anymore?), it's
just too late for Yang to create a path to top-tier status.

Well I do like how you just pulling stuffs out of wherever.  Is it that hard to just look up on wikipedia?  Come on, man.  The 2012 GOP primary dynamic is a tad different than the 2020 primary dynamic.  And Yang is indeed a long shot.  But to say Santorum is tied or statistically tie for first in Iowa and New Hampshire like Buttigieg.  Nationally, he wasn't even there at Buttigieg level.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#2011_polls

In early December, nationally, Santorum poll 2%.  In later December, he consistently poll 3 to 4%.  Only toward the new year, he got a bump.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_January_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Iowa_(January_3)

Mid december, Santorum polled slightly behind Klobuchar or about how much Klobuchar would poll right now.  His polls didn't increase until toward later december into the new year.  And even then, Ron Paul actually was ahead in many polls mid december.

just too late for Yang to create a path to top-tier status.

I gonna tell you how ridiculous you sound too.  Do you know when Iowa primary for the GOP that year?

January 3rd.  I gave you the timeline.  Santorum surging about one week before Iowa caucus.

You're forgetting (or, rather, ignoring the fact) that Santorum had a fundraising apparatus that Yang never will. You're right about one thing, though: if anyone's gonna show us some version of that improbable 'Santorum' burst out of nowhere, it's Amy.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nope. It's probably too late for him.

[weixiaobao]

You're forgetting (or, rather, ignoring the fact) that Santorum had a fundraising apparatus that Yang never will. You're right about one thing, though: if anyone's gonna show us some version of that improbable 'Santorum' burst out of nowhere, it's Amy.

At this point, I think you are trolling.  Because you keep making statements that can be very easily verified with the search bar on the very machine that you are on.

The fact that I have to keep doing homework for you.  Annoyed the living hell out of me.  Because you gonna make another wild claim that gonna waste another 10 minutes of my life, just to prove you are wrong.  Holy F***

I don't even bother looking at 1st and 2nd quarter since Santorum is polling at like 1% then, so whatever fundraising power that i am ignoring.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/third-quarter-fundraising-totals-then-now-n437091
3rd quarter: Rick Santorum: $682,177.87 that is 682k
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fundraising_for_the_2012_United_States_presidential_election
4th quarter: Rick Santorum $920,427.57  that is 920k

Santorum barely raise 2 millions in 6 months prior to his win in Iowa.  

Yang raised 9.92 mil 3rd quarter ALONE.  And jesus, just on this very website.  You can found a thread that said Yang campaign is looking at some 12 million for the 4th quarter.

You can said Yang have no chance of winning.  That is fine.  But why with this blatant lie that borderline someone pointing at a chicken and tell me that it is a cat.

[brucejoel99]

I'm trolling!? Lol that's rich. Okay, Mr. Yang Gang.

Regardless, it's not about the amount of money; it's about their effectiveness at using it. Santorum was able to parlay a $1.602 million Q3+Q4 into an Iowa win. Comparatively, Yang has squandered nearly $22 million. If it's not an affinity for Yang, then how you utterly refuse to see (let alone understand) the difference between those two (let me spell it out for you: Santorum was able to perform better than Yang with nearly 1/14th the amount of money that Yang has) is beyond me.

[weixiaobao]

I'm trolling!? Lol that's rich. Okay, Mr. Yang Gang.

Regardless, it's not about the amount of money; it's about their effectiveness at using it. Santorum was able to parlay a $1.602 million Q3+Q4 into an Iowa win. Comparatively, Yang has squandered nearly $22 million. If it's not an affinity for Yang, then how you utterly refuse to see (let alone understand) the difference between those two (let me spell it out for you: Santorum was able to perform better than Yang with nearly 1/14th the amount of money that Yang has) is beyond me.

You just move the goal post.  Where did I said Yang gonna win Iowa.  What strawman are you arguing.  Go and find that strawman to argue with.  You sound so ridiculous right now.  It like a Yang Gang member rape a family member of your or something.

You just move the goal post so hardcore.  So so so so so so so so so so hardcore.  Also base on everything you posted so far, you were asleep the whole time in 2012 and wasn't following the 2012 primary.  I could go in detail of why you are wrong once again.  Not in comparision of Yang to Santorum.  But rather the dynamic of the 2012 race.  Santorum was like the Delaney of this race.  Or even the Klobuchar now.  He visit every counties in the state.  Whether big or small.  People were repulsive by him.  That why they pick every candidates under the sun before him that including Perry, Cain, Gingrich.  Even Walker, Bachman, Ron Paul had a turn of doing super high in Iowa polls.  By the end, all of them falling out favor except Ron Paul in Iowa.  

Omg, my brain cell is dying.  How about this.  I don't support Yang.  Yang is a son of gun.  Now would you get out of your bias, and see the facts?  Or are you acting like there are some menacing Yang Gang robbing you or something?

*I am done.  You are going to my ignore list.