Maine redistricting, 2020s

[Kevinstat]

Links to 2010s Atlas discussion threads:
Congressional
Everthing else (Legislative, county commissioner, etc.)


Links to current districts:

Maine Senate: http://legislature.maine.gov/statutes/21-A/title21-Asec1203-B.html

Maine House of Representatives: http://legislature.maine.gov/statutes/21-A/title21-Asec1204-B.html

United States House of Representatives (congressional districts): http://legislature.maine.gov/statutes/21-A/title21-Asec1205.html

County commissioners: http://legislature.maine.gov/statutes/30-A/title30-Asec66-B.html

Aroostook County Finance Committee: can be found by downloading the 2016 and 2018 election results (in Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) format) at https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/results/2016/arocounty16.xlsx (accessed from https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/results/results16-17.html#tally ) and https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/results/2018/aroostook-cty-finance11-6-18.xlsx (accessed from https://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/results/results18.html#nonrcv ), respectively.

Knox County Budget Committee: http://legislature.maine.gov/statutes/30-A/title30-Asec757.html (sub-§2)


Links to redistricting provisions in the Maine Constitution:

Maine House of Representatives: Maine Constitution ( http://www.maine.gov/legis/const/ ), Article IV, Part First, Sections 2 and 3

Maine Senate: Maine Constitution, Article IV, Part Second, Section 2; state Senate redistricting is also affected by Article IV, Part Second, Section 1 regarding the set of possible sizes of the Senate ({31, 33, 35}).

United States House of Representatives (congressional redistricting): Maine Constitution, Article IX, Section 24

County boards of commissioners: Maine Constitution, Article IX, Section 25

Note that all four of the above require a 2/3 vote in each chamber to pass a redistricting plan.  If no plan is passed for a given type of district, the Maine Supreme Judicial Court (the supreme court in Maine) draws the lines for that type of district.

All of the above (provisions governing the Apportionment Commission): Maine Constitution, Article IV, Part Third, Section 1-A


Links to redistricting provisions in the Maine Revised Statutes Annotated:

United States House of Representatives: http://legislature.maine.gov/statutes/21-A/title21-Asec1206.html (basically a copy of the constitutional provisions)

Maine Legislature (both chambers; supplementary provisions): http://legislature.maine.gov/statutes/21-A/title21-Asec1206-A.html

All of the above (further supplementary provisions): http://legislature.maine.gov/statutes/21-A/title21-Asec1207.html (Note the nonseverability provision in sub-§3, but also note that that provision can be repealed by simple statute or "notwithstood" in a redistricting bill (a Legislature can't bind future Legislatures by statute).)

County boards of commissioners: http://legislature.maine.gov/statutes/30-A/title30-Asec65.html (Subsections 1 and 2 are basically a copy of the constitutional provisions, which themselves were based off the statutory provisions as they existed going into 2011 with the redistricting years simply changed (a rather sloppy job IMHO), while subsection 3 concerns funding of the county commissioner redistricting effort.)

Aroostook County Finance Committee: http://legislature.maine.gov/statutes/30-A/title30-Asec739.html (sub-§1, 1st ¶)

Knox County Budget Committee: http://legislature.maine.gov/statutes/30-A/title30-Asec757.html (sub-§1)

Municipal reapportionment: http://legislature.maine.gov/statutes/30-A/title30-Asec2503.html

[Kevinstat]

In the 2010 census, the State House "quotas" of Maine's largest municipalities** (those over 0.9/151 of Maine's population in any one of the three following tables), were as follows (with instances where the "Estimates Base" (EB) yields a different quota than the official census numbers noted in parentheses):

=7.6 (8*0.95) "cutoff"=
Portland city 7.5245 (EB 7.5244) (State Senate quota* 1.7441, between 1.05 and 1.9 "cutoffs")
=7.35 (7*1.05) "cutoff"=
...
=4.2 (4*1.05) "cutoff"=
Lewiston city 4.1596 (EB 4.1595) (State Senate quota* 0.9641, between 0.95 "cutoff" and 1.0 mark)
=4.0 mark=
=3.8 (4*0.95) "cutoff"=
Bangor city 3.7557 (EB 3.7539)
=3.15 (3*1.05) "cutoff"=
=3.0 mark=
=2.85 (3*0.95) "cutoff"=
South Portland city 2.8421 (EB 2.8423)
Auburn city 2.6208 (EB 2.6211)
Biddeford city 2.4186 (EB 2.4185)
Sanford city 2.3642 (EB 2.3634)
Brunswick town 2.3051 (EB 2.3052)
Augusta city 2.1753 (EB 2.1755)
Scarborough town 2.1506 (EB 2.1496)
Saco city 2.1009 (EB 2.1031)
=2.1 (2*1.05) "cutoff"=
=2.0 mark=
Westbrook city 1.9886 (EB 1.9910)
Windham town 1.9326 (EB 1.9321)
=1.9 (2*0.95) "cutoff"=
Gorham town 1.8621 (EB 1.8609)
Waterville city 1.7872 (EB 1.7873)
York town 1.4242 (EB 1.4228)
Falmouth town 1.2714 (EB 1.2709)
Kennebunk town 1.2275 (EB 1.2269)
Orono town 1.1779 (EB 1.1775)
Standish town 1.1224 (EB 1.1222)
Presque Isle city 1.1017
Wells town 1.0900
Kittery town 1.0788 (EB 1.0792)
Brewer city 1.0779 (EB 1.0782)
=1.05 "cutoff"=
Cape Elizabeth town 1.0248 (EB 1.0245)
Lisbon town 1.0241 (EB 1.0250)
=1.0 mark=
Topsham town 0.9985 (EB 0.9988)
Old Orchard Beach town 0.9803 (EB 0.9791)
Skowhegan town 0.9763 (EB 0.9758)
Bath city 0.9678
[Old Town city (0.8912 (EB 0.8919)) + Penobscot Indian Island Reservation (0.0693)] 0.9605 (EB 0.9612)
=0.95 "cutoff"=
Yarmouth town 0.9491 (EB 0.9492)
Caribou city 0.9309
Buxton town 0.9133 (EB 0.9134)
Freeport town 0.8956 (EB 0.8955)
...
Gray town 0.8822 (EB 0.8824)
...
Ellsworth city 0.8799
...
Cumberland town 0.8197 (EB 0.8188)

The largest municipalities as and according to the 2018 estimates and their State House "quotas" are as follows:

=7.6 (8*0.95) "cutoff"=
Portland city 7.4932 (State Senate quota* 1.7368, between 1.05 and 1.9 "cutoffs")
=7.35 (7*1.05) "cutoff"=
...
=4.2 (4*1.05) "cutoff"=
Lewiston city 4.0552 (State Senate quota* 0.9400, below 0.95 "cutoff")
=4.0 mark=
=3.8 (4*0.95) "cutoff"=
Bangor city 3.6099
=3.15 (3*1.05) "cutoff"=
=3.0 mark=
South Portland city 2.8889
=2.85 (3*0.95) "cutoff"=
Auburn city 2.6170
Biddeford city 2.4272
Sanford city 2.3899
Brunswick town 2.3107
Scarborough town 2.2961
Saco city 2.2280
Westbrook city 2.1407
Augusta city 2.1076
=2.1 (2*1.05) "cutoff"=
Windham town 2.0803
=2.0 mark=
Gorham town 1.9914
=1.9 (2*0.95) "cutoff"=
Waterville city 1.8780
York town 1.4837
Falmouth town 1.3809
Kennebunk town 1.3007
Orono town 1.2048
Wells town 1.1896
Standish town 1.1376
Kittery town 1.1108
Cape Elizabeth town 1.0507
=1.05 "cutoff"=
Brewer city 1.0211
Presque Isle city 1.0152
Lisbon town 1.0130
Old Orchard Beach town 1.0050
=1.0 mark=
Topsham town 0.9987
Yarmouth town 0.9610
Freeport town 0.9601
=0.95 "cutoff"=
Bath city 0.9397
Buxton town 0.9375
Skowhegan town 0.9312
Gray town 0.9258
Cumberland town 0.9212
Ellsworth city 0.9080
[Old Town city (0.8415) + Penobscot Indian Island Reservation (0.0660)] 0.9075
...
Caribou city 0.8590

Taking the "Estimates base" from April 1, 2010 (usually within a few people of the official numbers) shown in the same Census Bureau tables showing the above estimates, and adding to it the population gains (negative for losses) from that base to July 1, 2018 multiplied by 10/8.25 (I use a linear progression rather than exponential as it has the benefit of municipal projections being the same as county projections), the following are the projected 2020 State House "quotas" for all municipalities (in descending order) with projected (or 2010) quotas above 0.9000:

=7.6 (8*0.95) "cutoff"=
Portland city 7.4867 (State Senate quota* 1.7353, between 1.05 and 1.9 "cutoffs")
=7.35 (7*1.05) "cutoff"=
...
=4.2 (4*1.05) "cutoff"=
Lewiston city 4.0333 (State Senate quota* 0.9349, below 0.95 "cutoff")
=4.0 mark=
=3.8 (4*0.95) "cutoff"=
Bangor city 3.5797
=3.15 (3*1.05) "cutoff"=
=3.0 mark=
South Portland city 2.8987
=2.85 (3*0.95) "cutoff"=
Auburn city 2.6161
Biddeford city 2.4291
Sanford city 2.3955
Scarborough town 2.3269
Brunswick town 2.3118
Saco city 2.2542
Westbrook city 2.1721
Windham town 2.1115
=2.1 (2*1.05) "cutoff"=
Augusta city 2.0933
Gorham town 2.0188
=2.0 mark=
=1.9 (2*0.95) "cutoff"=
Waterville city 1.8971
York town 1.4965
Falmouth town 1.4041
Kennebunk town 1.3162
Orono town 1.2105
Wells town 1.2105
Standish town 1.1408
Kittery town 1.1175
Cape Elizabeth town 1.0562
=1.05 "cutoff"=
Lisbon town 1.0105
Old Orchard Beach town 1.0105
Brewer city 1.0092
=1.0 mark=
Topsham town 0.9987
Presque Isle city 0.9970
Freeport town 0.9737
Yarmouth town 0.9635
=0.95 "cutoff"=
Cumberland town 0.9427
Buxton town 0.9426
Gray town 0.9349
Bath city 0.9338
Skowhegan town 0.9219
Ellsworth city 0.9139
[Old Town city (0.8309) + Penobscot Indian Island Reservation (0.0653)] 0.8962
...
Caribou city 0.8439

*assuming 35 Senators.  With 33 or 31, Lewiston would be too small for a Senate district even under the 2010 Census figures.  Portland would still be comfortably between 1.05 and 1.9 State Senate quotas.

**I grouped Old Town city and the Penobscot Indian Island Reservation (big enough for a House district in 2010, although there are a couple census blocks (perhaps with no population) outside those two municipalities in that district, I think because they were entirely surrounded by the Penobscot Reservation) together, as technically Old Town doesn't belong in these tables but I thought it should be included.

[Kevinstat]

Populations as of and according to the 2010 census (with Estimates Base populations in parentheses):

Maine: 1,328,361 (EB 1,328,369)

Current CD-1: 664,180 (EB 664,181) (−0.00%)
Current CD-2: 664,181 (EB 664,188) (+0.00%)

Current CD-1 − Waterville: 648,458 (−2.37%)
Current CD-2 + Waterville: 679,903 (EB 679,911) (+2.37%)

Current CD-1 − Waterville − Farmingdale: 645,502 (EB 645,490) (−2.81%)
Current CD-2 + Waterville + Farmingdale: 682,859 (EB 682,879) (+2.81%)

Populations as of and according to the 2018 estimates:

Maine: 1,338,404

Current CD-1: 685,515 (+2.44%)
Current CD-2: 652,889 (−2.44%)

Current CD-1 − Waterville: 668,869 (−0.05%)
Current CD-2 + Waterville: 669,535 (+0.05%)

Current CD-1 − Waterville − Farmingdale: 665,952 (−0.49%)
Current CD-2 + Waterville + Farmingdale: 672,452 (+0.49%)

Populations (rounded to the nearest 1/100 of a person) when you take the "Estimates base" from April 1, 2010 (which were within a few people of the official numbers for practically every municipality until the estimates released this year, and are still very close), and adding to it the population gains (negative for losses) from that base to July 1, 2018 multiplied by 10/8.25 (I use a linear progression rather than exponential as it has the benefit of municipal projections being the same as county projections):

Maine: 1,340,532.64

Current CD-1: 690,040.39 (+2.95%)
Current CD-2: 650,492.24 (−2.95%)

Current CD-1 − Waterville: 673,198.61 (+0.44%)
Current CD-2 + Waterville: 667,334.03 (−0.44%)

Current CD-1 − Waterville − Farmingdale: 670,292.42 (+0.00%)
Current CD-2 + Waterville + Farmingdale: 670,240.21 (−0.00%)

[Kevinstat]

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, it's apparently possible to make both districts D-leaning (by moving Lewiston into CD-1 and some coastal areas north/east of Portland into CD-2), and it's also possible to make CD-2 strongly R-leaning (by making Portland, Lewiston, and Bangor all fall in CD-1). Given that Democrats now control the state government at both the executive and legislative levels, I wonder if they will take action to turn CD-2 into a D-leaning district...

The Maine Constitution requires a 2/3 vote in both houses of the Maine Legislature to pass any redistricting plan*, with the Maine Supreme Judicial Court (our state supreme court) making any apportionments the Legislature fails to come to agreement on (as well as hearing any challenges to plans the Legislature does pass, but the two times people have challenged a plan the court has rejected that challenge (not counting a 2011 malapportionment challenge in federal court that was pretty much a slam dunk)).  So I doubt there will be any significant partisan redistricting, at least by the Legislature.

For those who may be remembering Republican efforts to ram a partisan congressional district plan through in 2011, back then the 2/3 requirement for congressional redistricting was only in statute (same with county commissioner redistricting).  The 2/3 requirement for Legislative redistricting has been in the Maine Constitution for decades (it was adopted sometime in the 1970s, I believe).  In 2003 the Democrats had a trifecta, but Republicans wouldn't have played ball on a State House plan if the Democrats unilaterally passed a congressional plan, so the Democrats backed off.  In 2011 the legislative redistricting wasn't due yet (Maine delayed its redistricting to the "3" year back then and no one challenged the delay for anything but the congressional districts (the pair who sued to force a 2011 congressional redraw were apparently Republican activists)), so Republicans didn't have to worry about immediate repercussions if they muscled a plan through.  But the Democrats successfully collected petitions to force a vote on a Republican measure to repeal Maine's same-day voter registration (the voters supported that Democratic "people's veto" soundly, in perhaps the first major black eye of the new Republican majority), and it was pretty clear the Democrats would have been able to do the same to block a unilateral Republican congressional redistricting plan.  The adopted plan was slightly better for Republicans in CD-2 than the then-existing plan was (and probably better then what the Republicans originally wanted in hindsight, except that Jared Golden would have been in the first congressional district and he was probably the best person to take on Poliquin in 2018 (certainly better than Lucas St. Clair whose mother is hated in northern Maine).

It would be quite a messy map to have Portland, Lewiston and Bangor all in the same congressional district.  Lewiston isn't particularly Democratic anymore (it elected Republican mayors four times in a row before the Democratic-aligned candidate won this fall), although it does have an all-D legislative delegation.  An R gerrymander might have CD-1 sneak up I-95 to take in downtown Lewiston and Auburn but otherwise leave "Western Maine" (Androscoggin, Oxford and Franklin counties) in the second district, and some conservative towns in western Cumberland and northwestern York counties going into the second district along with it.  CD-1 would go up I-295/the Kennebec River as far as Waterville/Winslow (bypassing Sidney), and perhaps with the Midcoast trending D there could be a fairly neat eastern bulge of the first district along the coast to make up the needed population - perhaps even including Chellie Pingree's "hometown" of North Haven so they could say they weren't drawing her out of her district.  But it's all moot now anyway, as there's no chance the Republicans will win 2/3 of either chamber (let alone both) in next year's elections.

There's not much chance of the Democrats getting 2/3 in either chamber either.  They'll probably be on the defensive mostly next year.  But 7 of the 9 Supreme Judicial Court Justices are either King or Baldacci appointees, with one of the two LePage appointees having announced his retirement earlier this year (I'm not sure if he's staying on until a replacement is named).  The court isn't nearly as political as it is nationally (and in some states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), but one of the Associate Justices is a former Democratic Legislator from a prominent Democratic political family in Waterville and could be an asset to Democrats on redistricting.  LePage almost didn't reappoint that guy in 2016, wanting a more conservative justice (there are 7-year terms for the top court in Maine, although reappointment of Justices who desire it seems to be the norm), but LePage claimed in 2018 that that Justice had promised to retire in 2018 after getting enough service to meet a certain retirement threshold, and then reneged.  I don't know if that's true, but most of the outrage from Democrats was in the vein of how LePage was threatening the independence of the court and how it was inappropriate for LePage to make an issue out of it when he did, not claiming that he was making it up.

*Well, for congressional, state house, state senate, and county commissioner districts, anyway.  There's nothing stopping a party with a trifecta from gerrymandering the Knox County Budget Committee   (The comparable committee in Aroostook County has districts that are subdivisions of county commissioner districts, so there would be some limit to gerrymandering there although that subdivision provision could be repealed or "notwithstood" by simple statute; all other Budget/Finance Committees have exclusively appointed members; Paul LePage was on the Kennebec County Budget Committee when he was Mayor of Waterville.)

[Kevinstat]

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, it's apparently possible to make both districts D-leaning (by moving Lewiston into CD-1 and some coastal areas north/east of Portland into CD-2), and it's also possible to make CD-2 strongly R-leaning (by making Portland, Lewiston, and Bangor all fall in CD-1). Given that Democrats now control the state government at both the executive and legislative levels, I wonder if they will take action to turn CD-2 into a D-leaning district...

Given their dominance on the Maine Supreme Judicial Court, I could see Democrats in the Legislature refusing to accept any plan that doesn't move Waterville into CD-2, which would help Golden (if he survives 2020, and perhaps even if he loses) or another Democrat in that district.  If moving Waterville and Farmingdale as I showed above ended up working population-wise, I could see Democrats advocating for that.

[Kevinstat]

There's also the possibility that Trump expands his margin in ME02 in 2020. I personally think it's unlikely because the Acadian Francophones are a fickle bunch, and they won't give him as large of a majority this time. However, if he does improve, we could just end up with a triage rather than an attempt to make ME-02 more competitive

I could definitely see Golden getting triaged in the sense of DCCC resources this fall if things are looking bad for Democrats then, and if he loses next year an incumbent protection plan is certainly possible, particularly if the overall results in Maine (including the Presidential race) are such that a 2-0 R result seems about as likely with two "ME-PVI 0" districts as a 2-0 D result, but I don't see Maine Democrats going along with hurting Golden in 2021 just to make the already seemingly secure Pingree more secure.  But you never know, and it won't be entirely up to Democrats anyway, with Maine's 2/3 requirement.

[Kevinstat]

Maine’s 2nd District could become more blue after 2021 (Bangor Daily News)

This article is from last November, but I thought I'd post it here before I post one from this morning as it hadn't been posted on this thread before and is likely of interest to those interested in Maine congressional redistricting.

[Kevinstat]

Late Census throws Maine redistricting into chaos (Bangor Daily News) (should have "data" after "Census" in my opinion)

Not unique to Maine, but still newsworthy I think. The Apportionment Commission hasn't been formed yet, seemingly contrary to the requirements of the Maine Constitution. They probably feel there's nothing they could do right now. I think you could still have discussions of like, if you have to split a town in an area, do you split one with 90% of a district's population or one with 20%, that kind of thing, but such philosophical considerations could go out the window when the actual data arrives.

[Kevinstat]

Several members of Maine's Apportionment Commission for 2021 have now been named.

Democrats:
Rep. (and House Majority Leader) Michelle Dunphy (D-Old Town)
Rep. Anne Perry (D-Calais)
Rep. Michael Brennan (D-Portland)
Sen. (and Senate President) Troy Jackson (D-Aroostook County (Allagash))
Sen. Nathan Libby (D-Androscoggin County (Lewiston))
Maine Democratic Party Vice Chair Beverly Uhlenhake (D-Brewer)*
Unknown (by me at least): one final Democratic member*

*I'm not sure whether Uhlenhake has been appointed as Maine Democratic Party Chair's representative or as the Democratic Public Member.  MDP Chair Drew Gattine can either be a member himself or name someone to serve in his place (the latter seemed to be the norm until 2013, when the state party chairs of both major parties were on the commission themselves).  In the communication where I learned of Uhlenhake's appointment, Senate President Troy Jackson (who also took the seemingly unusual step of appointing himself to the commission) and House Speaker Ryan Fecteau seemed to appoint her themselves (jointly), alleging state constitutional authority they don't actually posses.  The 3 Representatives, 2 Senators and the Party Chair or her/his designee, those 6 members are supposed to choose the "public member" from their party (quotes used as it's usually not exactly an "average Joe").  Anyway, whichever Democratic position is left remains either to be named or for me to find out about it.

Republicans:
Rep. Joshua Morris (R-(North) Turner)
Rep. Theodore Kryzac (R-Acton)
Rep. Wayne Parry (R-Arundel)
Sen. Paul Davis (R-Piscataquis County (Sangerville))
Sen. Richard Bennett (R-Oxford County (Oxford))
Hon. Joshua Tardy (R-? (Newport still?)), Republican Public Member‡
Unknown (by me at least): the Maine Republican Party Chair's representative (which could be MRP Chair Demi Kouzounas herself)‡

‡The fact that the Republican Public Member has been named without it being made public (as far as I'm aware) who the Maine Republican Party Chair's representative on the commission will be suggests that the Republicans may not have been flawless in their execution of their constitutional mandate either.  But if four or all five of the Republican Legislators appointed to the commission agreed on Tardy being their party's "public member", then it wouldn't have voted how Kouzounas or her designee would have voted.  So perhaps this possible Republican goof is not as big as Jackson and Fecteau's.

Final member of the 15-member body (chosen jointly by the Democratic Public Member and the Republican Public Member; usually ends up being the Chair of the commission):
Either not named yet or unknown by me

----------

My sources for the information above:

The Advanced Bill Search page on the Maine Legislature's website (make sure "130th Legislature" is selected and that everything else is "cleared", type in "apportionment" (without the quotes) in the "Title containing" section and then click "Search").

House Advance Journal and Calendar for Wednesday, March 10, 2021 (under "COMMUNICATIONS", those labeled (2-39) (H.C. 34), (2-41) (H.C. 38), (2-42) (H.C. 39), (2-93) (H.C. 112) and (2-94) (H.C. 113)).

The Maine Senate website unfortunately doesn't have the Advance Journal and Calendar for March 10 available presently, having replaced it as the current one with the one for March 11 (makes perfect sense), while their 130th Senate Calendars page doesn't look to have been updated to reflect the two sittings of the Senate in March so far (their last Advance Calendar is for the one-day First Confirmation Session on February 25).  I assume S.C. 89, S.C. 242 and S.C. 243, all of which also show up on the search in the first link on this post, plus an order "establishing" the commission in December and an earlier draft of that order) would show up in the Senate Advance Calendar for March 10, 2021.

Maine Constitution, Article IV, Part Third, Section 1-A, second paragraph.

The state constitutional provisions for membership of the Apportionment Commission is summarized fairly well in Ballotpedia's Redistricting in Maine after the 2020 census article, in the "Drafting process" section, except that the presiding officers in each chamber appoint the majority party's House and Senate commission members rather than the majority floor leaders.  Of course, when Nate Libby resigned as Senate Majority Leader, a news article called him the #2 Democrat in the Senate (with the implication that Senate President Troy Jackson was the #1 Democrat), and I think most Maine political and State House observers would agree with that assessment.

[Kevinstat]

The population difference between Maine's two CDs (as of the census they were drawn based upon) was 8 in 1983, 6 in 1993 and 23 in 2003.  It was only 1 (the smallest possible with Maine's odd population) in 2011, but at that time the Republicans had a trifecta and there was no state constitutional 2/3 requirement for congressional redistricting back then, and since the legislative redistricting (which did have a state constitutional requirement) wasn't for a couple years as no one challenged the delay there there wasn't the same concern about payback, and since Republicans had plans they liked with only a 1-person deviation they made a big deal about how only "the state" could make an argument for a larger deviation, and while they ended up caving a bit under threat of a people's veto the final plan still had a 1-person deviation.  But the minimal deviation there might be an aberration.

I think it's very unlikely that any city or town town would be split between CDs.  A census-designated "county subdivision" in unorganized territory along township lines maybe, but Kennebec County only has one unorganized territory which consists of a single township, so if the changes are kept within Kennebec County, which seems likely, I don't see any municipality being split.

[Kevinstat]

What is an unorganized territory in a Maine county? Is that an unincorporated community, similar to Hacienda Heights and Foothill Ranch in California?

It is an unincorporated community?  Yes.  Neither a city nor a town nor a plantation (which has some limited local (sub-county) government, although in terms of land use regulation a lot of plantations function the same as unorganized territory I believe), nor a "gore" (that's more of a Vermont thing, but there is one in Maine, Hibberts Gore in Lincoln County between Somerville, Palermo and Washington, with a population of 1 in the past few censuses, but I recall seeing that the 2020 person was Hispanic (seems doubtful) and I imagine it's part of the statistical "noise" in differential privacy; the woman who used to live there didn't like getting contacted by reporters asking how it felt to be the one person in her municipality, and I've heard she moved; it's only like 2 1/2 towns away from my side of Augusta).

It is similar to those California communities you mention (or South San Jose Hills, where one current/former Atlasian lived in the western eastern, "nicer" part of and wanted his area to get annexed to surrounding West Covina, although geographically that area and the southeastern bulge of West Covina seemed like it should have been in Walnut)?  Not really.  Not nearly as many people or as densely populated.

From a post of mine a month and a half ago in The Forum That Shall Not Be Named:

There are kind of two "universes" in Maine for "minor civil divisions" (the level below counties, including cities and towns).  There's the universe that the census bureau uses ([with often quite large census-designated "county subdivisions"]), and there's what I like to call the "DoT/DeLorme" universe, that will show up in Department of Transportation township maps and The Maine Atlas and Gazetteer (originally published by DeLorme, which was bought by Garmin).  In addition to the differences in the unorganized areas, the DoT/DeLorme universe treats the Penobscot Indian Island Reservation (which includes the Penobscot River and most islands within between Old Town and Medway and is its own census "county subdivision", or rather two "county subdivisions" as a small portion of one side of the river is in Aroostook County) as parts of the various city or towns along the river, with town lines running along something like the centerline of the main channel of the river (and other town lines from the land proceeding as they were until you get to that main channel, with some crossing the river, forming "four corners" situations) like with much of the Kennebec and Androscoggin rivers, and the Maine Atlas maps themselves also treat the Passamaquoddy Pleasant Point Reservation as part of the town of Perry (although the township outline map on Page 4 of the Maine Atlas has the location of that reservation noted; it didn't use to (I've had several versions of The Maine Atlas and Gazetteer over the years)).  The third reservation (as opposed of off-reservation "Trust Land"), the Passamaquoddy Indian Township Reservation, is, as its name suggests, coterminous with a township of comparable size to the nearby townships and most of the unorganized townships, and that "minor civil division" is the same in both universes.

[Kevinstat]

What is an unorganized territory in a Maine county? Is that an unincorporated community, similar to Hacienda Heights and Foothill Ranch in California?

It is an unincorporated community?  Yes.  Neither a city nor a town nor a plantation (which has some limited local (sub-county) government, although in terms of land use regulation a lot of plantations function the same as unorganized territory I believe), nor a "gore" (that's more of a Vermont thing, but there is one in Maine, Hibberts Gore in Lincoln County between Somerville, Palermo and Washington, with a population of 1 in the past few censuses, but I recall seeing that the 2020 person was Hispanic (seems doubtful) and I imagine it's part of the statistical "noise" in differential privacy; the woman who used to live there didn't like getting contacted by reporters asking how it felt to be the one person in her municipality, and I've heard she moved; it's only like 2 1/2 towns away from my side of Augusta).

It is similar to those California communities you mention (or South San Jose Hills, where one current/former Atlasian lived in the western eastern, "nicer" part of and wanted his area to get annexed to West Covina, although geographically that area and the southeastern bulge of West Covina seemed like it should have been in Walnut)?  Not really.  Not nearly as many people or as densely populated.

From a post of mine a month and a half ago in The Forum That Shall Not Be Named:

There are kind of two "universes" in Maine for "minor civil divisions" (the level below counties, including cities and towns).  There's the universe that the census bureau uses ([with often quite large census-designated "county subdivisions"]), and there's what I like to call the "DoT/DeLorme" universe, that will show up in Department of Transportation township maps and The Maine Atlas and Gazetteer (originally published by DeLorme, which was bought by Garmin).  In addition to the differences in the unorganized areas, the DoT/DeLorme universe treats the Penobscot Indian Island Reservation (which includes the Penobscot River and most islands within between Old Town and Medway and is its own census "county subdivision", or rather two "county subdivisions" as a small portion of one side of the river is in Aroostook County) as parts of the various city or towns along the river, with town lines running along something like the centerline of the main channel of the river (and other town lines from the land proceeding as they were until you get to that main channel, with some crossing the river, forming "four corners" situations) like with much of the Kennebec and Androscoggin rivers, and the Maine Atlas maps themselves also treat the Passamaquoddy Pleasant Point Reservation as part of the town of Perry (although the township outline map on Page 4 of the Maine Atlas has the location of that reservation noted; it didn't use to (I've had several versions of The Maine Atlas and Gazetteer over the years)).  The third reservation (as opposed of off-reservation "Trust Land"), the Passamaquoddy Indian Township Reservation, is, as its name suggests, coterminous with a township of comparable size to the nearby townships and most of the unorganized townships, and that "minor civil division" is the same in both universes.

Why can't it just be called an unincorporated community?

Sheepish answer: I dunno.  Maine's weird, I guess.
Flip answer: Does this look like a community to you?
In-between answer: We use our own lingo in Maine.

[Kevinstat]

What is an unorganized territory in a Maine county? Is that an unincorporated community, similar to Hacienda Heights and Foothill Ranch in California?

It is an unincorporated community?  Yes.  Neither a city nor a town nor a plantation (which has some limited local (sub-county) government, although in terms of land use regulation a lot of plantations function the same as unorganized territory I believe), nor a "gore" (that's more of a Vermont thing, but there is one in Maine, Hibberts Gore in Lincoln County between Somerville, Palermo and Washington, with a population of 1 in the past few censuses, but I recall seeing that the 2020 person was Hispanic (seems doubtful) and I imagine it's part of the statistical "noise" in differential privacy; the woman who used to live there didn't like getting contacted by reporters asking how it felt to be the one person in her municipality, and I've heard she moved; it's only like 2 1/2 towns away from my side of Augusta).

It is similar to those California communities you mention (or South San Jose Hills, where one current/former Atlasian lived in the western, "nicer" part of and wanted his area to get annexed to West Covina, although geographically that area and the southeastern bulge of West Covina seemed like it should have been in Walnut)?  Not really.  Not nearly as many people or as densely populated.

From a post of mine a month and a half ago in The Forum That Shall Not Be Named:

There are kind of two "universes" in Maine for "minor civil divisions" (the level below counties, including cities and towns).  There's the universe that the census bureau uses ([with often quite large census-designated "county subdivisions"]), and there's what I like to call the "DoT/DeLorme" universe, that will show up in Department of Transportation township maps and The Maine Atlas and Gazetteer (originally published by DeLorme, which was bought by Garmin).  In addition to the differences in the unorganized areas, the DoT/DeLorme universe treats the Penobscot Indian Island Reservation (which includes the Penobscot River and most islands within between Old Town and Medway and is its own census "county subdivision", or rather two "county subdivisions" as a small portion of one side of the river is in Aroostook County) as parts of the various city or towns along the river, with town lines running along something like the centerline of the main channel of the river (and other town lines from the land proceeding as they were until you get to that main channel, with some crossing the river, forming "four corners" situations) like with much of the Kennebec and Androscoggin rivers, and the Maine Atlas maps themselves also treat the Passamaquoddy Pleasant Point Reservation as part of the town of Perry (although the township outline map on Page 4 of the Maine Atlas has the location of that reservation noted; it didn't use to (I've had several versions of The Maine Atlas and Gazetteer over the years)).  The third reservation (as opposed of off-reservation "Trust Land"), the Passamaquoddy Indian Township Reservation, is, as its name suggests, coterminous with a township of comparable size to the nearby townships and most of the unorganized townships, and that "minor civil division" is the same in both universes.

Why can't it just be called an unincorporated community?

Sheepish answer: I dunno.  Maine's weird, I guess.
Flip answer: Does this look like a community to you?
In-between answer: We use our own lingo in Maine.

Actually, while thinking more about it, I think it's the census lingo that's different regarding Maine.  The places you mention in California are census-designated places, which would show up in "Place" tables along with cities.  These places in Maine are not CDPs, but county subdivisions.  So they wouldn't show up in place tables.  I think the Census Bureau does things a little differently in New England than in other parts of the country, and while they may be following how the locals think of their unorganized territory you'd have to ask the Census Bureau why they're not treated the same way.

[Kevinstat]

In the 2020 census, the State House "quotas" of Maine's largest municipalities (those with over 0.9/151 of Maine's population), are as follows:

=7.6 (8*0.95) "cutoff"=
Portland city 7.5821 (State Senate quota* 1.7575, between 1.05 and 1.9 "cutoffs")
=7.35 (7*1.05) "cutoff"=
...
=4.2 (4*1.05) "cutoff"=
Lewiston city 4.1144 (State Senate quota* 0.9537, between 0.95 "cutoff" and 1.0 mark)
=4.0 mark=
=3.8 (4*0.95) "cutoff"=
Bangor city 3.5194 (State Senate quota 0.8158, well below 0.95 "cutoff")
=3.15 (3*1.05) "cutoff"=
=3.0 mark=
South Portland city 2.9370
=2.85 (3*0.95) "cutoff"=
Auburn city 2.6669
Biddeford city 2.4996
Scarborough town 2.4534
Sanford city 2.4364
Brunswick town 2.4114
Westbrook city 2.2611
Saco city 2.2590
=2.1 (2*1.05) "cutoff"=
Augusta city 2.0947
Windham town 2.0432
Gorham town 2.0323
=2.0 mark=
=1.9 (2*0.95) "cutoff"=
Waterville city 1.7543
York town 1.5210
Falmouth town 1.3793
Kennebunk town 1.2786
Wells town 1.2540
Orono town 1.2395
Standish town 1.1354
Kittery town 1.1161
Lisbon town 1.0763
Brewer city 1.0720
Topsham town 1.0596
Cape Elizabeth town 1.0568
=1.05 "cutoff"=
=1.0 mark=
Yarmouth town 0.9964
Old Orchard Beach town 0.9931
Presque Isle city 0.9750
Bath city 0.9716
Freeport town 0.9684
Skowhegan town 0.9554
=0.95 "cutoff"=
Cumberland town 0.9391
Ellsworth city 0.9309
Buxton town 0.9284
Gray town 0.9165

*assuming 35 Senators.  With 33 or 31, Lewiston would be too small for a Senate district.  Portland would still be comfortably between 1.05 and 1.9 State Senate quotas.

[Kevinstat]

And here is a R+6.3 PVI district that doesn't split any counties and has a population deviation of 3,765/±0.3% (the Democratic district is 1,882 too big and the Republican district is 1,883 too small) that Trump won in 2020 by a margin of about 7.5%:

That's the third closest of the 867 possible divisions of Maine counties into two contiguous congressional districts (I went kind of crazy back when the Trond was doing his county-based CD maps, well over a decade ago).  The closest is as follows (in the standard DRA color-scheme as I can't be sure what election or composite thereof you used to determine PVA or whatever in your map):


Link to view on DRA


And here is the second closest:


Link to view on DRA


And here is the fourth closest (and the closest where I would consider both districts to be functionally contiguous):


Link to view on DRA

[Kevinstat]

Interestingly, only the fourth closest map has full road contiguity, and only then between counties. Some of the towns in upper Oxford county require passage through Franklin county if you don't want to leave the state.

Good point, although there's actually a similar situation with the current map in that Isle au Haut in Knox County in CD-1 is connected by ferry only to Stonington (on an island but one with a road connection to the mainland) in Hancock County in CD-2.  That town has gone back and forth between Rockland-based and Ellsworth/MDI-based State Senate districts over the decades (it's currently in with most of the rest of Knox County).

[Kevinstat]

Consensus U.S. House plan out now.

Augusta would move to the 2nd District under bipartisan redistricting deal

The only plan where the two parties have yet to reach agreement is  the State Senate plan (the parties are apparently still far apart there).

[Kevinstat]

Consensus U.S. House plan out now.

Augusta would move to the 2nd District under bipartisan redistricting deal

The only plan where the two parties have yet to reach agreement is  the State Senate plan (the parties are apparently still far apart there).

Click here to view my recreation of that map on DRA, and feel free copy it so you can add whatever your preferred partisanship measure is from the available options (I have that disabled on my maps).