Maine redistricting, 2020s

[Sorenroy]

A GOP mander map is virtually impossible for this state.

I'll be honest, I don't know what Maine's requirements are for splitting counties or contiguity, but here's a R+9.7 PVI district that doesn't split any cities/towns and has a population deviation of 37/±0.003% (the Democratic district is 19 too small and the Republican district is 18 too big) that Trump won in 2020 by a margin of almost 14%:



And here is a R+6.3 PVI district that doesn't split any counties and has a population deviation of 3,765/±0.3% (the Democratic district is 1,882 too big and the Republican district is 1,883 too small) that Trump won in 2020 by a margin of about 7.5%:



If you mean a GOP gerrymander that could actually get passed the legislature and the courts, I suppose you are correct.

[Sorenroy]

A GOP mander map is virtually impossible for this state.

I'll be honest, I don't know what Maine's requirements are for splitting counties or contiguity, but here's a R+9.7 PVI district that doesn't split any cities/towns and has a population deviation of 37/±0.003% (the Democratic district is 19 too small and the Republican district is 18 too big) that Trump won in 2020 by a margin of almost 14%:

-snip-

Looking at general contiguity rules across the country, it seems like most states require a minimum of either land or bridge/road contiguity. So here's a map where each precinct meets at least on of those criteria. There are precincts linked to each-other by only land and no roads, but I made sure that there are no precincts that connect over rivers or ocean without some type of bridge. The Republican district is R+9.4 PVI, doesn't split any cities or towns, is perfectly population balanced to the person, and is a district Trump won by over 13% in 2020:



Given how small some of the towns in Maine are, a better looking map could probably be made with a similar but slightly lower Republican PVI, but this is about as gerrymandered as it gets: any significant changes will quickly make a less Republican district. As it stands, Dave's Redistricting App puts the "compactness" at 16/100.

[Sorenroy]

I went back and deleted the photo in my last post which had either land or road contiguity because of issues around Bangor. I had checked to make sure that District 1 was fully contiguous, but forgot to check District 2, which left a river divide with no road in that area. Fixing that issue resulted in very minor changes, with the new district still being R+9.4 (with Trump winning by 13% in 2020), having no city or town splits, a population deviation/range of three, and a compactness of 16. Like I said, many of the towns in Maine are just so small that switching around a few isn't going to change much.



Also, I decided to go back and create a fully road contiguous map of Maine as well. Starting from any precinct in either district, you can drive to every other precinct in that district without leaving the district, state, or country (unless it is to travel to some of the completely disconnected islands). The Republican district is R+9.3, doesn't split any cities or towns, has a population range of three (just like the other map), and is a district Trump won by 13% is 2020.



The interesting thing about both maps is that Lewiston sits right at the middle of both districts, at least voting-wise. You can switch it between the two districts and it will only alter the PVI of either map by about 0.05. That's why the first map includes part of Lewiston in the Republican district and the second does not. Given this fact, and the fact that my own small tweaks to both maps have improved the Republican PVI by hundredths here and there, I imagine someone with a little more practice could go through and get the Republican PVI up another 0.1 points.

[Sorenroy]

And here is a R+6.3 PVI district that doesn't split any counties and has a population deviation of 3,765/±0.3% (the Democratic district is 1,882 too big and the Republican district is 1,883 too small) that Trump won in 2020 by a margin of about 7.5%:

-snip-

That's the third closest of the 867 possible divisions of Maine counties into two contiguous congressional districts (I went kind of crazy back when the Trond was doing his county-based CD maps, well over a decade ago).  The closest is as follows (in the standard DRA color-scheme as I can't be sure what election or composite thereof you used to determine PVA or whatever in your map):

-snip-

I used the 2016/2020 PVI for my numbers. I mostly made that original map as sort of a starting point for the three later town maps, as that strip of counties along the coast houses the block of contiguous towns that make up base for the Democratic district in a Republican gerrymander. It is interesting that you can cut the population range by more than half while keeping counties intact, but dropping to R+~3 from R+6.3 doesn't quite fit what I was trying for (a safe Republican district) in my own post. However, given that Waldo county stretches out to the coast and breaks land contiguity, the second and fourth maps work better if those are requirements. Interestingly, only the fourth closest map has full road contiguity, and only then between counties. Some of the towns in upper Oxford county require passage through Franklin county if you don't want to leave the state.