2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election

[vileplume]

Re your last point, maybe that is a reason to target Tories more? Little doubt in hindsight that another mistake of the Swinson era was to concentrate their attacks so heavily on Labour (despite which, they ultimately couldn't even win Hallam back - one of their most ridiculous failures)

The reason why they attacked Labour/Corbyn as hard as they did was because the primary type of seat they were targeting (wealthy, suburban strongly remain), the key to winning was flipping Tory Remain voters. Being perceived to be going soft on Corbyn (who was actively despised amongst this demographic) would just have ensured these people would have held their nose and voted for the Tories. In the end fear/dislike of Corbyn was too strong and enough of these people reluctantly returned to the Tories in the final weeks to stop him, which ensured narrow Lib Dem losses in the likes of Guildford and Esher.

If on the other hand they'd openly aligned themselves with Corbyn's Labour I doubt any of these seats would've been at all close and they would still have stonking Tory majorities.

Now I do agree that maybe they didn't attack the Tories enough, however the best way to attack them would be along the lines of: 'they've thrown business under the bus', 'they're no longer the party of 'sensible' economic management' etc. whilst at the same time defending their record in coalition. Taking this line however would of course be deeply uncomfortable for the left of the party.

This is why I believe their electoral prospects would be far best served by electing Ed Davey, who comes closest to this way of thinking and thus would appeal to key demographics in most of their target seats. Layla Moran on the other hand, whilst I do think she is at least a reasonably talented politician, would appeal most to inner city Guardianista-types and would repel Tory-Lib Dem swing voters in the suburbs. The effect of this would be to make the Lib Dem vote even less efficient by going backwards in the seats they're currently close in whilst making strong gains in the Islingtons of this world but falling short there too due to Labour's vote being too strong on the council estates. Wera Hobhouse would very likely be a disaster but her winning is, I would have thought, rather unlikely.  

[vileplume]

These three things baked in the problems of the campaign; as the small third party it's virtually impossible to overturn them. The report rightly notes too that a lot of money was wasted in the defector seats-Sam Gyimah for example handed Keningston to the Tories & ran a foul campaign accusing the sitting Labour MP of being responsible for the Grenfell fire. (see more below re coupons)

I don't think you can say this at all. The Lib Dem vote in Kensington would've almost certainly come primarily from the very wealthy southern half of the constituency, whilst I think it's highly likely they did pretty poorly in the much poorer north (location of Grenfell). So it's not at all unreasonable to assume most of their voters were ex-Tories. Now who these people would have voted for if it was just a choice between Tory and Labour is another question entirely, but if you look at the available evidence (the Deltapoll) the same % of Lib Dem voters preferred the Tories to Labour as preferred the Labour to the Tories. Thus it is possible that Labour would've held Kensington narrowly without the Lib Dems trying to win but equally the Tories could've won it with a larger majority.

The idea that Lib Dem voters at the last election would've overwhelmingly preferred Labour to the Tories in a binary choice is a myth that needs dispelling (along with the myth that all Brexit Party voters would have voted Tory if the party didn't exist).

[vileplume]

and to nitpick I'm not sure how many inner city guardianista types they are left in London as we can barely afford the rent in Zone 5- and Moran is very much the candiaite for the suburbs as IIRC she lives in an infamously NIMBY oxfordshire seat

Depends on the type of suburb. But if you mean the type that the Lib Dems came close in last time (weathy, owner occupied, Cameroony) then no, she'd go down like a bucket of cold sick. I live in one of these seats and I know these people. The moment Layla Moran starts banging on about UBI or some extreme sounding gender reform (self ID etc.) these people will go scuttling back to the Tories. If you think the Esher/Harpenden/Wokingham-set will love Moran's brand of politics with all due respect you don't really understand these places at all. Ed Davey's brand of politics on the other hand would be extremely appealing to these types of people and thus the Lib Dems would be mad not to elect him.

Where Moran would do well on the other hand would be in places like my old uni seat of Bristol West. However even if she was able able to win over these 'progressive' (I use the term loosely as many of them tend to be highly authoritarian on things like freedom of speech) voters en-masse she probably still wouldn't be able to capture the seat for her party due to Labour racking up huge majorities in wards like Lawrence Hill (ethnically diverse council estates).

I also don't know why you seem to think the Guardianistas have been driven out of the inner cities, in central Bristol they're everywhere; the amount of ill-fitting patterned trousers, unkempt (often blue) hair and Yoko Ono-style glasses you see you'd almost be forgiven for thinking that God had rained the 11th plague on the city in the form of hippies! Ok, I'm being facetious but the truth of the matter is that these types of people still very much live in the inner cities but the fact that their rents have gone through the roof which has made them essentially poor even on a decent salary. This of course has the knock on effect of making them as economically left-wing as they are socially (hence the support for Corbyn amongst this demographic and also probably a major reason why Labour was able to regain Putney).

[vileplume]

Well there's the countryside and the countryside isn't there. I think the party as a whole needs to accept most of the old south western base isn't coming back - it suffered a terminal blow in May 2010 and finally bit the dust in June 2016. But there are regions where a rural recovery could be very feasible - if B&R was winnable in August 2019 there's no reason why it shouldn't be in May 2024 for instance.

If I was a party strategist however, I think in 2024 I would concentrate the vast vast majority of resources on the following seats:

East Dunbartonshire
Wimbledon
Cheltenham
Winchester
Cheadle
Cambridgeshire South
Esher & Walton
Lewes
Guildford
St Ives
Hazel Grove
Hitchin & Harpenden
Wokingham
Surrey SW
Harrogate & Knaresborough
Brecon & Radnorshire

Unless there's a long-shot that becomes very promising during the campaign, don't bother outside of these seats (Tory/SNP facing seats where Labour even under Starmer will go nowhere). And obviously throw the kitchen sink at holding Caithness and Westmorland.

Overall, I think concentrating on a set of local campaigns can begin the rebuild. As for what leader will be best at that... well, dull might be the order of the day, might it not?

I agree these should be their primary focus though it really depends on the situation at the time of the election. If the Tories allow Britain to crash out of the single market/customs union without a deal at the end of this year it's very possible they could be headed for a full scale collapse not only in wealthy suburbs but in agricultural areas as well. The Lib Dems would be well placed (both due to  second places in many of these places at last years general as well strong local government presences) to take advantage of it.

Swinson was mad to be too ambitious (future PM candidate etc.) with the Tories polling in the 40s alongside Corbyn's utter toxicity with the type of Tory voter she was trying to appeal to. However if the Tories have fallen into the low 30s by 2024 (and presuming Starmer hasn't somehow been replaced by a radical leftist) the Lib Dems would be mad not to be at least somewhat more ambitious than this limited list. Though of course it really depends on what the political situation is at the time.

The one note of caution though which could trip the Lib Dems up is whilst the constituencies on this list are socially liberal they are not socially radical. There is a real danger that parties of the centre and centre-left may go 'too far' in an attempt to rise to the current cultural moment (censorship, whitewashing history, being seen to condone violence/criminal activity etc.) which would give the right a big opening. Admittedly I haven't really been following the Lib Dem response but there is a non-negligible chance they will fall into the sounding 'extreme/radical' trap just like they did with their disastrous 'revoke' messaging at the last election. This, I imagine, will be a particular danger if Moran wins the leadership over Davey.

As for Labour, Keir Starmer does appear to be handling the situation well so far, but the 'Corbynista' wing of the party is not at all happy with him. So whether this continues or whether he bows to internal pressure to take more radical stances I'm not entirely sure.

[vileplume]

Oh and I don't know if it's just me, but Layla Moran sounds really like Lena Headey! Every time I hear her being interviewed all I can think is Cersei Lannister (not sure if that's a good thing or not lol ).