2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:28:52 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 14
Author Topic: 2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election  (Read 24020 times)
EastAnglianLefty
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,563


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #100 on: May 22, 2020, 09:36:14 AM »

The point about Chuka is interesting; we heard locally he was going to get Twickenham (along with stupid rumours he might go for Ealing & Acton or Brentford- the two local labour seats to his home with largish FBPE tendancies) and it was a bit surpise he went for Two cities- although he was actually the favourite for a while.

The party frankly didn't lose anything by him well losing- beyond another talking head for newsnight. He's an idiot who if he wanted a career in politics should have stayed in Labour; he isn't a Lib-Dem by any mark of the word & his colleagues are pretty close to getting what he wanted back (an electable, centre-left, crank free labour party)

On this point I do wonder what people's thoughts are on the ideological implications of the Lib-Dems taking in the defectors- I always thought it was perfectly sensible to take whoever was offered but I do wonder if the party contributed to the idea it had no driving liberal identity because it took people like Umunna, Gyimah, Philip Lee & Angela Smith.

Honestly, they got close enough in Cities that it might have fallen if the campaign had been less disastrous, and it's the only London seat where trying to run without any local government presence or workable voter ID records was actually plausible.

My problem with the idea that the Lib Dems' ideological coherence was harmed by taking in the defectors is that they weren't that coherent beforehand - people are criticising the old Lib Dem model of wanting more housing nationally but none in their constituencies, but that continues to be exactly the line of their local government brigade.

Interestingly, judging by their social media presences Lee seems to be the only one with much interest in hanging around the LDs now, despite having been the one who caused most ructions in the membership.

Yeah; I'll save my rant for why Change-UK should have stayed as a Parliamentary grouping another day but none of the people who joined the Lib Dems did themselves any good. I think it actively contributed internally to the idea that they were a 'stop Brexit at any-cost' party.

The thing about cities is that I didn't realise there was quite a large BAME (I assume laregely afro-carribean) vote which Labour always manages to pull out- it was sh**tty of Labour to target the seat as they knew it would hand it to the Tories still a cynic says it means they've got a shot at the seat in 2024 (I mean what difference did it actually make?)

Definitely not Afro-Caribbean. The 2011 census figures have it at less than 5% black. It's still very white for a central London seat, with the largest minority group being Asians. I can't find a breakdown of that into separate ethnic groups, but I think there's a pretty decent chance that it's one of the few seats where the east Asian population is bigger than the south Asian population.

There's also a sizeable 'Other' population. Again, I don't have a breakdown, but I would note that one of the Labour councillors elected in the constituency in 2014 defected to the Conservatives for reasons that seemed to have more to do with Azerbaijan than his ward.
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,816
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #101 on: May 22, 2020, 10:38:39 AM »


These three things baked in the problems of the campaign; as the small third party it's virtually impossible to overturn them. The report rightly notes too that a lot of money was wasted in the defector seats-Sam Gyimah for example handed Keningston to the Tories & ran a foul campaign accusing the sitting Labour MP of being responsible for the Grenfell fire. (see more below re coupons)

I don't think you can say this at all. The Lib Dem vote in Kensington would've almost certainly come primarily from the very wealthy southern half of the constituency, whilst I think it's highly likely they did pretty poorly in the much poorer north (location of Grenfell). So it's not at all unreasonable to assume most of their voters were ex-Tories. Now who these people would have voted for if it was just a choice between Tory and Labour is another question entirely, but if you look at the available evidence (the Deltapoll) the same % of Lib Dem voters preferred the Tories to Labour as preferred the Labour to the Tories. Thus it is possible that Labour would've held Kensington narrowly without the Lib Dems trying to win but equally the Tories could've won it with a larger majority.

The idea that Lib Dem voters at the last election would've overwhelmingly preferred Labour to the Tories in a binary choice is a myth that needs dispelling (along with the myth that all Brexit Party voters would have voted Tory if the party didn't exist).

I mean re the bolded I never said that & have for a long time I have told Labour people who argued for an alliance that this wasn't the case...

And yeah the various sham People's Vote organisations endorsed Gyimah because he was a high-profile defector & because several of those groups were Lib-Dem fronts (to an extent). They did this on the basis of useless polling as the report makes clear & because Coad was a corbynista.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/tactical-voting-could-deliver-remain-victory-in-election-study

It was for the above reason that I know for a fact from other Labour people that they had a fair amount of confused voters who geneuinely didn't know whether to back the Lib-Dems or Labour as the pro-european to beat the Tories.

My argument (maybe poorly put) was that the pro-european/tactical vote was mixed/botched in Kesington. I know that there were enough tactical voters in these types of seats to make a difference...
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,816
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #102 on: May 22, 2020, 10:40:14 AM »

and to nitpick I'm not sure how many inner city guardianista types they are left in London as we can barely afford the rent in Zone 5- and Moran is very much the candiaite for the suburbs as IIRC she lives in an infamously NIMBY oxfordshire seat
Logged
vileplume
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 540
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #103 on: May 22, 2020, 08:07:53 PM »
« Edited: May 22, 2020, 08:24:34 PM by vileplume »

and to nitpick I'm not sure how many inner city guardianista types they are left in London as we can barely afford the rent in Zone 5- and Moran is very much the candiaite for the suburbs as IIRC she lives in an infamously NIMBY oxfordshire seat

Depends on the type of suburb. But if you mean the type that the Lib Dems came close in last time (weathy, owner occupied, Cameroony) then no, she'd go down like a bucket of cold sick. I live in one of these seats and I know these people. The moment Layla Moran starts banging on about UBI or some extreme sounding gender reform (self ID etc.) these people will go scuttling back to the Tories. If you think the Esher/Harpenden/Wokingham-set will love Moran's brand of politics with all due respect you don't really understand these places at all. Ed Davey's brand of politics on the other hand would be extremely appealing to these types of people and thus the Lib Dems would be mad not to elect him.

Where Moran would do well on the other hand would be in places like my old uni seat of Bristol West. However even if she was able able to win over these 'progressive' (I use the term loosely as many of them tend to be highly authoritarian on things like freedom of speech) voters en-masse she probably still wouldn't be able to capture the seat for her party due to Labour racking up huge majorities in wards like Lawrence Hill (ethnically diverse council estates).

I also don't know why you seem to think the Guardianistas have been driven out of the inner cities, in central Bristol they're everywhere; the amount of ill-fitting patterned trousers, unkempt (often blue) hair and Yoko Ono-style glasses you see you'd almost be forgiven for thinking that God had rained the 11th plague on the city in the form of hippies! Ok, I'm being facetious but the truth of the matter is that these types of people still very much live in the inner cities but the fact that their rents have gone through the roof which has made them essentially poor even on a decent salary. This of course has the knock on effect of making them as economically left-wing as they are socially (hence the support for Corbyn amongst this demographic and also probably a major reason why Labour was able to regain Putney).
Logged
Coldstream
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,982
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -6.59, S: 1.20

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #104 on: May 23, 2020, 04:19:07 AM »

I canvassed in two Cities and Kensington in the last GE. Incidentally Two cities was for the unlamented Steve Saxby, a man who no one will miss from politics.

I came away thinking that the Lib Dem’s would easily win two cities whereas there was still some Tory support left in Kensington and comparatively little Lib Dem support (though I think this was before Gyimah announced he was running).

 I remember none of the people I knew thought that Gyimah had a shot and could only cost Labour in Kensington (assisted by the fact that EDC was a less than ideal candidate) whereas the consensus was that Chuka Umunna would win since Two Cities is just so remainy and Mark Field was disgraced. In fact I’m pretty sure had Field been the Tory candidate Umunna would still have narrowly won.

There isn’t much of an ethnic minority population in Two Cities, that I saw at least, but there’s quite a lot in next door Vauxhall which might be the source of confusion.

I agree with the above that the Lib Dem’s would probably do better at picking up the Clegg-Cameron type seats with Ed Davey, whereas all Moran really offers is a chance for a three way competition with Labour and the Greens for the progressive vote which will hurt them in the places they actually need to win to deny a Tory majority (Esher, Guildford, Lewes etc) and be able to be a junior coalition partner again.
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,816
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #105 on: May 23, 2020, 05:01:45 AM »

I mean I'm aware it's hardly data driven analysis but generally a popular leader with a good campaign will have a 'rising tide lifts all boats' effect on seats; there were a lot of seats that Labour won in 2017 which no-one thought they would & where on reflection where awful matches for Corbyn.

Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,595
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #106 on: May 23, 2020, 06:10:45 AM »

I canvassed in two Cities and Kensington in the last GE. Incidentally Two cities was for the unlamented Steve Saxby, a man who no one will miss from politics.

Eh?

He was selected as candidate originally but withdrew before the 2019 GE after running into trouble.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,370
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #107 on: June 04, 2020, 04:01:24 PM »

Davey has officially entered, and has endorsements from Jardine and Olney to start off with. His main task will be convincing us that he is slightly more interesting than wallpaper.

Anyway, I'll take this opportunity to start up a tracker for each MP, their status and endorsements. Because why not, not as if it's going to take me very long is it. Will be updated as we go along, provided I don't die of boredom first.

Leadership Candidates
Ed Davey (Kingston & Surbiton)
Wera Hobhouse (Bath)
Layla Moran (Oxford West & Abingdon)

Endorsement Tracker
Davey
Christine Jardine (Edinburgh West)
Sarah Olney (Richmond Park)
Moran
Jamie Stone (Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross)
Yet to Endorse
Alistair Carmichael (Orkey & Shetland) (Chief Whip so may not endorse)
Wendy Chamberlain (North East Fife)
Daisy Cooper (St Albans)
Tim Farron (Westmorland & Lonsdale) (May not endorse for obvious reasons)
Munira Wilson (Twickenham)
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #108 on: June 04, 2020, 07:22:41 PM »

Isn't there a fairly obvious skeletal closet situation with Moran?
Logged
Intell
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,817
Nepal


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -1.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #109 on: June 04, 2020, 08:53:57 PM »

I don't think the tory vote in the likes of Esher will go back to the tories, and lack of fear for Corbyn there may push some voters to the libdems even more so.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #110 on: June 04, 2020, 10:00:56 PM »

I don't think the tory vote in the likes of Esher will go back to the tories, and lack of fear for Corbyn there may push some voters to the libdems even more so.
"The likes of Esher?" Sure. But Esher itself swung harder into the LD camp than anywhere else in the country (bar North Down) and has not historically been LibDem (not since the late 1800s, IIRC). A lot of our overperformance there was due to #candidatequality and I would expect some local unwind if Monica Harding chose not to stand again.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,370
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #111 on: June 05, 2020, 04:45:40 AM »

Isn't there a fairly obvious skeletal closet situation with Moran?

Ahem, yes. She did manage to make it disappear fairly easily at the time but these things have a habit of appearing again...

A lot of our overperformance there was due to #candidatequality and I would expect some local unwind if Monica Harding chose not to stand again.

I think that over-performance was probably more down to the identity of the Conservative candidate than the identity of our candidate
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,595
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #112 on: June 05, 2020, 11:11:40 AM »

She evidently did well at exploiting his dearth of popularity, though.
Logged
cp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,612
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #113 on: June 05, 2020, 12:51:40 PM »

She evidently did well at exploiting his dearth of popularity, though.

Speaking as a resident of E&W and a spouse of a campaign worker, I'd say it was a combination of both. Monica really connected with the wine mums in the Molsey/Oxshott/Claygate area. She was extremely impressive in the hustings debates (especially compared with the Labour candidate, who was clearly in over his head) and had a good ear for local issues.

Raab was loathed, but that was at least a much because of what he represented (Brexit, toffs) as his personality. I find him a rather slimy fellow in person but he can speak with sincerity and conviction when giving a speech or on the fly. Put another way, there are *far* more obnoxious Tories than Raab as far as personality goes.
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,816
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #114 on: June 05, 2020, 01:39:50 PM »
« Edited: June 05, 2020, 02:08:47 PM by Blair »

I'd still probably vote for Ed Davey if I was a Lib Dem; as others have discussed the best route back for them still appears to be remaining credible enough in tory held seats (which requires a very delicate dance)

Moran however I fear appeals very much to the types of Lib Dem members who doom the other centre-left parties.

Isn't there a fairly obvious skeletal closet situation with Moran?

And that's not the only one...
Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #115 on: June 06, 2020, 02:14:21 AM »

I'd still probably vote for Ed Davey if I was a Lib Dem; as others have discussed the best route back for them still appears to be remaining credible enough in tory held seats (which requires a very delicate dance)

Moran however I fear appeals very much to the types of Lib Dem members who doom the other centre-left parties.

Isn't there a fairly obvious skeletal closet situation with Moran?

And that's not the only one...

Theres more to her assault charges and her pansexuality?
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,595
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #116 on: June 06, 2020, 06:12:24 AM »
« Edited: June 06, 2020, 06:58:37 AM by CumbrianLeftie »

Certainly wouldn't surprise me, she is the sort of politician for whom the euphemism "colourful" could have been devised Smiley

(whereas, of course, Davey is pretty much the opposite - I think that some of his backers see him as a placeholder for a few years until Daisy Cooper is ready tho)
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,816
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #117 on: June 06, 2020, 08:17:37 AM »
« Edited: June 06, 2020, 10:38:29 AM by Blair »

I'd still probably vote for Ed Davey if I was a Lib Dem; as others have discussed the best route back for them still appears to be remaining credible enough in tory held seats (which requires a very delicate dance)

Moran however I fear appeals very much to the types of Lib Dem members who doom the other centre-left parties.

Isn't there a fairly obvious skeletal closet situation with Moran?

And that's not the only one...

Theres more to her assault charges and her pansexuality?

I understand she's in a relationship with the former head of Press for the Lib Dems- who was in the news during the general election.

This is in itself is perfectly normal; Westminister is even worse than the US capitol for relationships within parties (half the Labour Party is married to each other) but it's just another example of 'oh wait your personal life is generating another story'

Certainly wouldn't surprise me, she is the sort of politician for whom the euphemism "colourful" could have been devised Smiley

(whereas, of course, Davey is pretty much the opposite - I think that some of his backers see him as a placeholder for a few years until Daisy Cooper is ready tho)

I was going to post that I thought the Davey approach is a good strategy; he's well respected in Westminster, is an experienced former Minister and is actually what I think of when I think of the Lib-Dems; a dedicated constituency MP who is firmly on the centre-left on most issues other than the economy where he sits on edge of the centre.

However I know this is the exact approach they tried with Cable; it failed hugely because everyone ignored Cable when he was leader, he got no media coverage & then when Swinson became Leader they had someone untested with little public profile, no real experience and no obvious politica atenna or judgement.

It's still baffling they punted on a right wing bag carrier from the coalition who's area of passion appeared to be Sheryl Sandberg esque femisim.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,595
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #118 on: June 06, 2020, 08:36:11 AM »

They did that because they were drunk on the European elections Kool-Aid.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,370
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #119 on: June 06, 2020, 10:14:21 AM »

I think that's a very unfair assessment of Cable, who did what he had to do - stabilise a sinking ship and give it a relevant purpose again, which he did. That it later went wrong isn't relevant to his handling of it. I'm currently leaning Davey (despite his canny ability to put people to sleep) because he could well serve that function at a time when its rather desperately needed, especially when Labour is pretending its changed anything other than the leader and is nicking all our voters. And after all, if he goes nowhere, we can ditch him for Cooper two years down the line so that's okay.

Regarding Moran, I had forgotten about the pansexuality thing, but frankly anyone who cares about that wasn't voting for us in the first place. The assault stuff is a potential problem though. But mostly I don't think I want her as leader because she just doesn't seem up to the job, and well, Labour tried that didn't they and look how well it went.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,595
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #120 on: June 06, 2020, 11:48:51 AM »

I think that's a very unfair assessment of Cable, who did what he had to do - stabilise a sinking ship and give it a relevant purpose again, which he did. That it later went wrong isn't relevant to his handling of it. I'm currently leaning Davey (despite his canny ability to put people to sleep) because he could well serve that function at a time when its rather desperately needed, especially when Labour is pretending its changed anything other than the leader and is nicking all our voters. And after all, if he goes nowhere, we can ditch him for Cooper two years down the line so that's okay.

Regarding Moran, I had forgotten about the pansexuality thing, but frankly anyone who cares about that wasn't voting for us in the first place. The assault stuff is a potential problem though. But mostly I don't think I want her as leader because she just doesn't seem up to the job, and well, Labour tried that didn't they and look how well it went.

Heh, that's not what your typical online Corbynista thinks Wink
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #121 on: June 06, 2020, 12:07:38 PM »

Labour is going to be essentially a different party by the time of the next election, much as by the 2019 election it was essentially a different party to the one that contested the 2015 election. Basing an electoral strategy around an assumption to the contrary would be foolish.

My advice to the LibDems, which I give out here for free, is to make a serious effort to launch some sort of recovery in the countryside.
Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,595
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #122 on: June 08, 2020, 09:34:11 AM »

My advice to the LibDems, which I give out here for free, is to make a serious effort to launch some sort of recovery in the countryside.

I mean, they managed to win a byelection in a mostly rural seat less than a year ago......
Logged
Coldstream
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,982
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -6.59, S: 1.20

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #123 on: June 08, 2020, 12:51:48 PM »

My advice to the LibDems, which I give out here for free, is to make a serious effort to launch some sort of recovery in the countryside.

I mean, they managed to win a byelection in a mostly rural seat less than a year ago......

Which they won because of uniquely strong local organisation and a split between he Tories and Brexit Party, then they lost it 4 months later. Lib Dem’s best chance at short term gains are places in the countryside where Labour won’t ever win but the Tories aren’t popular, what sustained them 1992-2015.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,370
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #124 on: June 08, 2020, 02:02:53 PM »

Well there's the countryside and the countryside isn't there. I think the party as a whole needs to accept most of the old south western base isn't coming back - it suffered a terminal blow in May 2010 and finally bit the dust in June 2016. But there are regions where a rural recovery could be very feasible - if B&R was winnable in August 2019 there's no reason why it shouldn't be in May 2024 for instance.

If I was a party strategist however, I think in 2024 I would concentrate the vast vast majority of resources on the following seats:

East Dunbartonshire
Wimbledon
Cheltenham
Winchester
Cheadle
Cambridgeshire South
Esher & Walton
Lewes
Guildford
St Ives
Hazel Grove
Hitchin & Harpenden
Wokingham
Surrey SW
Harrogate & Knaresborough
Brecon & Radnorshire

Unless there's a long-shot that becomes very promising during the campaign, don't bother outside of these seats (Tory/SNP facing seats where Labour even under Starmer will go nowhere). And obviously throw the kitchen sink at holding Caithness and Westmorland.

Overall, I think concentrating on a set of local campaigns can begin the rebuild. As for what leader will be best at that... well, dull might be the order of the day, might it not?
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 14  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.067 seconds with 12 queries.