2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election

[Lord Halifax]

I think this is probably a difference of terminology rather than opinion. I've met very many 'socialists' who are very much in favour of vastly expanding the social safety net and enacting punitive measures against the banks, it's just that they squeal even more than your average Progress member if you suggest that people earning £40k a year ought to be paying more tax...

That’s fair - and what I was getting at. I wouldn’t describe people who’d object to increased taxation on relatively high incomes like that as socialist. It’s essentially the Beveridge style left/radical liberals. I was also at a Momentum event a few weeks ago and I was one of 2/150ish that were members of a trade union.

But my point about new joiners ideology was secondary to my point about the fact that the new joiners were generally not embedded in the history/culture of the Labour Party irrespective of their ideology (imo a few were unreconstructed Communists, some were genuine socialists and most were liberals). Same as the FBPE joiners to the Lib Dem’s, and the Lib Dem’s/Liberals have always had a very idiosyncratic internal party culture anyway.

So that’s why I think Hobhouse is in with a shot similarly to Corbyn’s, given that she’s the only person advocating for the position that motivated most Lib Dem’s to join. Worth pointing out that 9/11 of their seats are ones they’ve only gained since the referendum on the basis largely of their Pro-EU policy, so I can easily see the party embracing a hardliner on the issue.

But has there really been that big a turnover in the LibDem membership? Most members are presumably people who joined before the coalition.

[Coldstream]

I think this is probably a difference of terminology rather than opinion. I've met very many 'socialists' who are very much in favour of vastly expanding the social safety net and enacting punitive measures against the banks, it's just that they squeal even more than your average Progress member if you suggest that people earning £40k a year ought to be paying more tax...

That’s fair - and what I was getting at. I wouldn’t describe people who’d object to increased taxation on relatively high incomes like that as socialist. It’s essentially the Beveridge style left/radical liberals. I was also at a Momentum event a few weeks ago and I was one of 2/150ish that were members of a trade union.

But my point about new joiners ideology was secondary to my point about the fact that the new joiners were generally not embedded in the history/culture of the Labour Party irrespective of their ideology (imo a few were unreconstructed Communists, some were genuine socialists and most were liberals). Same as the FBPE joiners to the Lib Dem’s, and the Lib Dem’s/Liberals have always had a very idiosyncratic internal party culture anyway.

So that’s why I think Hobhouse is in with a shot similarly to Corbyn’s, given that she’s the only person advocating for the position that motivated most Lib Dem’s to join. Worth pointing out that 9/11 of their seats are ones they’ve only gained since the referendum on the basis largely of their Pro-EU policy, so I can easily see the party embracing a hardliner on the issue.

But has there really been that big a turnover in the LibDem membership? Most members are presumably people who joined before the coalition.

Their membership at the end of 2014 was 48000, it’s now over 120000...

And that’s ignoring the small - but not non-existent - eurosceptic wing who will have left post 2016. All together the overwhelming majority of the membership - at least 60% - are post 2016 members.

[DaWN]

I know it makes Labourites giddy (for some reason... all the Lib Dems' remaining seats would be won by one of your two mortal enemies if not them you do realise) but the party is not going to elect their own Corbyn and go down a rejoin rabbit hole. Just because you made a terrible decision 5 years ago that everyone is still reeling from the consequences of doesn't mean others will.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well FWIW I still think it very likely they will elect Davey.

But the possibility of something analogous to 2015 happening now shouldn't be dismissed. And it has the most chance of occurring if (as then) it is complacently assumed that it *can't* come about.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I tend to think Brexit predominated partly because there wasn't the oxygen for any other issue. So either in a year's time all our politics will be coronavirus-inflected, or we'll have a reset to whatever normality will be by then. Brexit will probably have dropped down the agenda whatever happens.

[Coldstream]

I know it makes Labourites giddy (for some reason... all the Lib Dems' remaining seats would be won by one of your two mortal enemies if not them you do realise) but the party is not going to elect their own Corbyn and go down a rejoin rabbit hole. Just because you made a terrible decision 5 years ago that everyone is still reeling from the consequences of doesn't mean others will.

There are only 2 seats that the Lib Dem’s hold that aren’t directly attributable to having a Pro-EU position since 2016. It’s hardly a “rabbit hole”, whatever that means to you. Without that - and with Labour and the Tories both moving away from the extremes they don’t really have any major appeal without being the Pro-EU party.

[CumbrianLefty]

I tend to think Brexit predominated partly because there wasn't the oxygen for any other issue. So either in a year's time all our politics will be coronavirus-inflected, or we'll have a reset to whatever normality will be by then. Brexit will probably have dropped down the agenda whatever happens.

Except that we are still due for a "hard exit" at the end of this year.....

(of course, the present crisis could well change that as well)

[brucejoel99]

I tend to think Brexit predominated partly because there wasn't the oxygen for any other issue. So either in a year's time all our politics will be coronavirus-inflected, or we'll have a reset to whatever normality will be by then. Brexit will probably have dropped down the agenda whatever happens.

Except that we are still due for a "hard exit" at the end of this year.....

(of course, the present crisis could well change that as well)

As polling has borne out (&, if nothing else, as logic would dictate), the present crisis will definitely change that. BoJo's just gonna have to extend the transition period beyond December.

[CumbrianLefty]

Postponed until 2021, apparently

Thinking about it, I wonder if this is partly motivated by Cooper maybe appearing a more credible prospect by then? Tbf one can see the appeal, could dodge some of the (different) drawbacks of both Davey and Moran.

[brucejoel99]

Postponed until 2021, apparently

Thinking about it, I wonder if this is partly motivated by Cooper maybe appearing a more credible prospect by then? Tbf one can see the appeal, could dodge some of the (different) drawbacks of both Davey and Moran.

Ugh, the election is digital or by mail. The hustings can be online; the previous ones were livestreamed anyway. There's no legitimate reason to delay this.

[Coldstream]

Postponed until 2021, apparently

Thinking about it, I wonder if this is partly motivated by Cooper maybe appearing a more credible prospect by then? Tbf one can see the appeal, could dodge some of the (different) drawbacks of both Davey and Moran.

Ugh, the election is digital or by mail. The hustings can be online; the previous ones were livestreamed anyway. There's no legitimate reason to delay this.

They want to give people a chance to go to hustings to see the candidates in person, it’s a tradition in British politics. It would also look a bit self indulgent to have a leadership election amidst a national crisis (it’s different for Labour whose election was pretty much finished already).

I guess a cynical motive might be that the election would get lost in the press if they hold it now. At least next year whoever the new leader is might get some press. I assumed that was why they decided to hold it after Labour in the first place.

[brucejoel99]

Postponed until 2021, apparently

Thinking about it, I wonder if this is partly motivated by Cooper maybe appearing a more credible prospect by then? Tbf one can see the appeal, could dodge some of the (different) drawbacks of both Davey and Moran.

Ugh, the election is digital or by mail. The hustings can be online; the previous ones were livestreamed anyway. There's no legitimate reason to delay this.

They want to give people a chance to go to hustings to see the candidates in person, it’s a tradition in British politics. It would also look a bit self indulgent to have a leadership election amidst a national crisis (it’s different for Labour whose election was pretty much finished already).

I guess a cynical motive might be that the election would get lost in the press if they hold it now. At least next year whoever the new leader is might get some press. I assumed that was why they decided to hold it after Labour in the first place.

Even still, a mere delay until the autumn would make more sense (especially since that could always be pushed back as well if need be). But guaranteeing over a year without a new leader? That's just stupid.

[DaWN]

But guaranteeing over a year without a new leader? That's just stupid.

There aren't going to be any elections over that period, there isn't much immediate need for a leader of a relatively small party aside from that. It's not the same as the Labour contest where a functioning Leader of the Opposition is a necessity.

[brucejoel99]

But guaranteeing over a year without a new leader? That's just stupid.

There aren't going to be any elections over that period, there isn't much immediate need for a leader of a relatively small party aside from that. It's not the same as the Labour contest where a functioning Leader of the Opposition is a necessity.

The fact that they're "a relatively small party" is the problem. If anything, such a long delay just makes it seem like the party is determined to consign itself to irrelevancy, no matter what.

[Blair]

The reason is that MPs are extremely busy; one of the reasons why the last month of the Labour leadership was dead was because MPs are both having to do a lot more constituency work & deal with any relevant work in Parliament on topics that they cover.

There's absolutely no energy or time for a leadership contest in the current climate (which we expect to last for the next 3-5 months- ignoring the unknown & aftermath)

Unlike the Labour Party there's no need for a new leader for the sake of opposition; and frankly the cynic says wait until you have an open media cycle & less going on.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Also, Davey likes it because he gets to be leader for longer, whilst the other candidates like it because they don't have to stake out a distinctive position in a difficult media environment, but in a year's time they can criticise Davey for having been as mediocre as he always is.

[Lord Halifax]

The LibDem's Federal Appeals Panel has ruled that the party's Federal Board can only revoke the timetable and suspend a leadership election in "exceptional circumstances" and not as far into the future as May 2021, unless the "exceptional circumstances" continue until then. So the Board has to review the election timetable and come up with an earlier date.

[CumbrianLefty]

Which does seem sensible tbh.

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1255848915645202432

In case anyone forgot this was still happening, Jardine is apparently pulling out. I suspect because she's decided she can't be bothered and it's maybe a bit of a poisoned chalice at this point anyway (it'll take a few years for the party to get back on its feet and I suspect whoever is elected this time will be not be leader at the election).

I was going to vote for her btw. Davey is about as exciting as watching paint dry and Moran is far too much of a risk.

[CumbrianLefty]

There's still Hobhouse

[Continential]

Hopefully Daisy Cooper will run in 2021

[CumbrianLefty]

Hopefully Daisy Cooper will run in 2021

More plausible than if the contest was going ahead this year, as originally planned.

[Continential]

Hopefully Daisy Cooper will run in 2021

More plausible than if the contest was going ahead this year, as originally planned.

True, but Coronavirus resulted in the lockdowns and also, do you think that Swinson will regain her seat in 2024?

[DaWN]

There's still Hobhouse

I can hardly contain my excitement.

Do you think that Swinson will regain her seat in 2024?

It is highly unlikely she runs. As for whether another LD candidate can do it, it depends if the SNP have become unpopular by then. It's got to happen eventually.

[Continential]

There's still Hobhouse

I can hardly contain my excitement.

Do you think that Swinson will regain her seat in 2024?

It is highly unlikely she runs. As for whether another LD candidate can do it, it depends if the SNP have become unpopular by then. It's got to happen eventually.

Do you think that Swinson has a future in providential politics in Scotland?