2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election

[Alcibiades]

I think people still overestimate the willingess of the Labour Party to back PR; especially because it's seen (incorrectly) as the worse sort of naval gazing- I remember the 'he needs a helmet, not a new voting system' type ads we had in 2011.

I think the only accepted way to change a voting system is via referendum & I don't think PR would pass; the two easiest arguments are 1.) It costs too much 2.) Do you want Farage/Galloway/Momentum in Parliament?

There's a certain visceral distrust of it; while the AV vote in 2011 most likely did a lot worse for a whole host of reasons (being a half way system, clegg being hated etc) it wouldn't fill me with confidence. Even more so it's part of a horse trade for a government.

On a slightly related note there's a tendency in both the Lib Dems & Labour to talk about PR without working out how you achieve it (aka 326 votes for the bill & 50%+1 in a referendum)

I unfortunately agree that there is no way PR is winning a referendum in the near future, although I think that just in the last few years support for it in Labour has increased substantially. It would, politically, be a hard sell to implement it without holding a referendum, though not impossible.

The only way I see a large shift in public opinion towards electoral reform is if we see an election where the party with the second-largest number of votes ends up with a majority, or a similarly egregiously unproportional result.

[Lord Halifax]

The only way I see a large shift in public opinion towards electoral reform is if we see an election where the party with the second-largest number of votes ends up with a majority, or a similarly egregiously unproportional result.

I suppose that party would have to be the Tories given their structural advantage, how likely is such a result?

[Alcibiades]

The only way I see a large shift in public opinion towards electoral reform is if we see an election where the party with the second-largest number of votes ends up with a majority, or a similarly egregiously unproportional result.

I suppose that party would have to be the Tories given their structural advantage, how likely is such a result?

Yes, most likely the Tories. Playing around on Electoral Calculus, it seems definitely possible that the Tories could lose the popular vote by up to 5 points and still be the largest party, but it’s very unlikely they lose the PV and still win a majority.

The closest we’ve come to having a scenario like this in recent years which could have provided an impetus to PR was during Cleggmania in 2010, when it looked likely that the Lib Dems could win the most votes but still finish a distant third in seats.

[Former President tack50]

I think people still overestimate the willingess of the Labour Party to back PR; especially because it's seen (incorrectly) as the worse sort of naval gazing- I remember the 'he needs a helmet, not a new voting system' type ads we had in 2011.

I think the only accepted way to change a voting system is via referendum & I don't think PR would pass; the two easiest arguments are 1.) It costs too much 2.) Do you want Farage/Galloway/Momentum in Parliament?

There's a certain visceral distrust of it; while the AV vote in 2011 most likely did a lot worse for a whole host of reasons (being a half way system, clegg being hated etc) it wouldn't fill me with confidence. Even more so it's part of a horse trade for a government.

On a slightly related note there's a tendency in both the Lib Dems & Labour to talk about PR without working out how you achieve it (aka 326 votes for the bill & 50%+1 in a referendum)

I unfortunately agree that there is no way PR is winning a referendum in the near future, although I think that just in the last few years support for it in Labour has increased substantially. It would, politically, be a hard sell to implement it without holding a referendum, though not impossible.

The only way I see a large shift in public opinion towards electoral reform is if we see an election where the party with the second-largest number of votes ends up with a majority, or a similarly egregiously unproportional result.

For what is worth, 2015 was the most unrepresentative result in the UK in decades if I am not mistaken, with UKIP getting just 1 seat on 13% of the votes and the Lib Dems getting 8 on 8% of the vote; while the SNP got 56 on under 5% of the vote and the Tories got a majority on 37%.

2005 is also not going to win any representation awards either, with Labour getting a majority on 35% of the vote and only a 3 point gap with the Conservatives.

[Alcibiades]

I think people still overestimate the willingess of the Labour Party to back PR; especially because it's seen (incorrectly) as the worse sort of naval gazing- I remember the 'he needs a helmet, not a new voting system' type ads we had in 2011.

I think the only accepted way to change a voting system is via referendum & I don't think PR would pass; the two easiest arguments are 1.) It costs too much 2.) Do you want Farage/Galloway/Momentum in Parliament?

There's a certain visceral distrust of it; while the AV vote in 2011 most likely did a lot worse for a whole host of reasons (being a half way system, clegg being hated etc) it wouldn't fill me with confidence. Even more so it's part of a horse trade for a government.

On a slightly related note there's a tendency in both the Lib Dems & Labour to talk about PR without working out how you achieve it (aka 326 votes for the bill & 50%+1 in a referendum)

I unfortunately agree that there is no way PR is winning a referendum in the near future, although I think that just in the last few years support for it in Labour has increased substantially. It would, politically, be a hard sell to implement it without holding a referendum, though not impossible.

The only way I see a large shift in public opinion towards electoral reform is if we see an election where the party with the second-largest number of votes ends up with a majority, or a similarly egregiously unproportional result.

For what is worth, 2015 was the most unrepresentative result in the UK in decades if I am not mistaken, with UKIP getting just 1 seat on 13% of the votes and the Lib Dems getting 8 on 8% of the vote; while the SNP got 56 on under 5% of the vote and the Tories got a majority on 37%.

2005 is also not going to win any representation awards either, with Labour getting a majority on 35% of the vote and only a 3 point gap with the Conservatives.

That is very true. Unfortunately for public opinion to turn significantly against PR I think it would have to be an immediately obvious example, involving the two main parties, where the winner of the most votes is not the winner of the most seats (it is most likely that Labour suffer this fate in the near future).

[Kingpoleon]

The only way I see a large shift in public opinion towards electoral reform is if we see an election where the party with the second-largest number of votes ends up with a majority, or a similarly egregiously unproportional result.

Do you prefer PR to STV/AV+?

[Alcibiades]

The only way I see a large shift in public opinion towards electoral reform is if we see an election where the party with the second-largest number of votes ends up with a majority, or a similarly egregiously unproportional result.

Do you prefer PR to STV/AV+?

Personally, yes. My ideal system would be MMP.

[DaWN]

Soooo... final predictions anyone? I predict that the winning candidate will either win very narrowly or by miles with nothing in between.

[Alcibiades]

I reckon Davey will win by a moderate-to-comfortable margin.

[Blair]

Thank god

[Blair]

Thank god

Ed Davey has won & it looks rather comfortable (40K v 20K)

As a Labour member who wants us to get back into Government this is a good result.

His speech is actually quite candid in admitting the Liberal Democrats are not trusted or liked by a large chunk of the country.

[DaWN]

Oh good

[Cassius]

Big disappointment :’(

(Although I’m not convinced that Davey will be particularly successful either).

[DaWN]

Soooo... final predictions anyone? I predict that the winning candidate will either win very narrowly or by miles with nothing in between.

Davey won by miles so with that I win prediction of the year or something

[YL]

The safe choice.

[Blair]

Also proves, once again, that twitter isn't britain.

[morgieb]

Also proves, once again, that twitter isn't britain.

You mean that Keir Starmer isn't about to lose a primary to Rebecca Long-Bailey?

[CumbrianLefty]

The safe choice.

Moran not winning the "nominations" contest (mostly participated in by activists who tended to be more left wing than the "armchair" members) proved to be prescient.

And, yet again, YouGov polling (even from months ago) wasn't that far out in an internal election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turns out there is such a thing as 'too weird' even for LibDem members.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

I can imagine Davey being likeable to the public......if they ever find out who he is. Moran would have gone the same way as that Scottish person last year.

[brucejoel99]

This has been fun, see y'all again next year.

[morgieb]

Big disappointment :’(

(Although I’m not convinced that Davey will be particularly successful either).

Davey is probably less likely to be successful than Moran, but equally I can't see the party completely imploding under him. Under Moran they just might.

[CumbrianLefty]

Also proves, once again, that twitter isn't britain.

The people who most like to say that are maybe even less "Britain", though.

[Blair]

Also proves, once again, that twitter isn't britain.

The people who most like to say that are maybe even less "Britain", though.

I've never claimed to be!

[CumbrianLefty]

Big disappointment :’(

(Although I’m not convinced that Davey will be particularly successful either).

Davey is probably less likely to be successful than Moran, but equally I can't see the party completely imploding under him. Under Moran they just might.

Precisely, the "safe" option was always likely to be attractive to LibDems given the situation they are currently in - I don't think Davey is going to be pushed by them as "the next PM" come 2024 at least

There is also the fact that the membership has changed significantly in the past decade - not just the outflow of left leaning people (sometimes to Labour or the Greens) since the coalition was created, but the recent influx includes quite a few #FBPE types who are often fairly centre-right on economics.