2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election

[EastAnglianLefty]

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/01/ed-davey-ahead-liberal-democrat-leadership-race

Davey apparently well in the lead. It's looking fairly likely this will be pretty boring.

Will the Lib Dems ever vote for somebody who isn't tainted by the Coalition?

Yes. Mostly because Davey, Farron and Carmichael are their only remaining MPs from the Coalition years but also because eventually the Coalition will fade from memory both in the party itself and in the wider public.

Look, the Coalition was a mistake and they handled it appallingly - my support of the party is still very conditional on something like that never ever happening again - but it's more than time to move on.

Davey might be a bit boring but he's a safe pair of hands which is exactly what the party needs for the rebuilding process over the next five years. The only person I'd be willing to support over him at this point is Jardine - Moran is too much of a risk, Hobhouse just a bit crap, Cooper is too green.

Why Jardine? The only time I've ever heard her speak was the Donside by-election back in 2013, when she put in probably the worst hustings performance I've ever seen. Just seems like the definition of somebody who has risen without trace.

From an outsider's perspective, Moran seems like the best pick by a long way. They need to have somebody who can garner attention and comes across positively to an audience stretching from tactical Labour voters to shire crypto-Tories to the deeply but non-ideologically weird, and she seems to be the one to have anything resembling charisma.

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1222867388934381573?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ct...

Well, so much for boring.

For the record, I think she is actually quite a good speaker (at least she appears to be on video which is the important bit as that's how most people would see her) and think she is tough and can do the job. The big question for me is her seat though, so for now, I'd be inclined to support Davey but if she impresses during the campaign who knows.

Moran is too much of a risk. She might connect with voters but on the other hand she might put them off as well. As for appealing across the divide... whoever the leader is will be accused by the Labour machine of being an Orange Tory and by the Tory machine of a socialist in disguise. I think the party needs someone tough and able enough to fight back those attacks rather than someone who'll try to pacify them - because it won't work. The Labour Twitter base is insane and the Tories won't let a challenge to their heartlands go unfought. She also comes across to me as someone who Boris and the Tory machine will run over. Starmer/Nandy as well if a miracle happens (obviously Wrong-Failey couldn't run over a shrub if she tried) - but nearly all Lib Dem targets are Tory facing and will be until Labour are back in government, so being able to fight the Tories is imperative. Davey and Jardine I think could do that, I think Moran would struggle.

Very early days and another key element is how much are the candidates willing to learn from the election, which is a debate I think will happen unlike a certain other party.

[DaWN]

Hobhouse has declared. She's crap and won't win but it's certainly the final nail in my 'Davey coronation' theory.

Moran next?

[brucejoel99]

Hobhouse has declared. She's crap and won't win but it's certainly the final nail in my 'Davey coronation' theory.

Her insinuation that the Lib Dems should pivot to an immediate 'rejoin' position is also crap.

[Hnv1]

Is there anyone who’s economically liberal who’s standing?

[CumbrianLefty]

Davey is at least reasonably that way, surely?

True, there is no Browne/Laws type candidate in prospect. But that was always a niche of a niche.

[DaWN]

There aren't any Browne/Laws types left anyway

[Hnv1]

Davey is at least reasonably that way, surely?

True, there is no Browne/Laws type candidate in prospect. But that was always a niche of a niche.

So what's Liberal about the Liberal Democrats? they're as socially liberal as Labour so nothing unique there

[CumbrianLefty]

Moran has announced she is running.

[DaWN]

Moran has announced she is running.

A phrase involving the number of cooks in a kitchen springs to mind

[CumbrianLefty]

Or rather "she has come out fighting", eh readers?

[Lord Halifax]

The betting markets now have Moran as the favorite. Why is she suddenly considered more likely than Davey?

[CumbrianLefty]

That surprises me, though political betting odds are often *highly* unreliable.

[Coldstream]

A Lib Dem I know is really worried that Hobhouse is going to storm it like Corbyn did. Logic is that most Lib Dem members are post-2016 FBPE hardline Remainers who will vote for the rejoin candidate.

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe it depends on if the other candidates are as useless and out of touch as was the case then?

[Coldstream]

Maybe it depends on if the other candidates are as useless and out of touch as was the case then?

Depends on your definition of out of touch, Hobhouse is - like Corbyn - out of touch with the traditions of the party but, like Corbyn, far more in touch with the new largely largely single issue membership (EU for Lib Dem’s, wars for Labour).

As I understand it Davey is disliked by most of the grassroots due to the coalition, and being lukewarm on the EU - second only to Norman Lamb. That’s why he lost so badly to Swinson.

People forget even most Pre-2015 members saw themselves as on the left and anti-Tory, and a decent chunk of the membership now are ex-Labour members who perhaps came via Change UK so are really unlikely to go for someone associated with the coalition.

Cooper/Jardine are unknown whereas Hobhouse has gone round the grassroots events a lot. Cooper is a good campaigner though and respected amongst the more engaged membership.

Moran would win right now imo, but she’s the Burnham of this and I could see her triangulating too much on the EU and losing. Like how in 2015 you had STW, PSC, PAAA etc encouraging their supporters to swarm in to Labour I could see similar hardline remain groups encouraging supporters to swarm in to the Lib Dem’s to back Hobhouse once Labour has elected its new leader. Moran also has the whole assault baggage (the painfully centrist FBPE types will care about that).

[Former President tack50]

If the Lib Dems go all in on a hardline #rejoin campaign, how likely is it that they get wiped out? Do they even have anything remotely resembling a safe seat?

I guess the Lib Dems would just become the Orkney and Shetland party?

[EastAnglianLefty]

Westmoreland and Lonsdale is the only other seat they've held continuously since 2010 and that was close in 2017, so they don't really have safe seats in the traditional sense. That said, there are certainly places where their vote is stickier than others.

[Coldstream]

If the Lib Dems go all in on a hardline #rejoin campaign, how likely is it that they get wiped out? Do they even have anything remotely resembling a safe seat?

I guess the Lib Dems would just become the Orkney and Shetland party?

Not likely. In fact I can’t see why they’d do worse than in 2019. The very worst case scenario  for them is that people stop caring about the EU, in which case they’d just not make any advances. I can’t see a situation where somehow 60-70% of the population become Brexiteers which is what it would take for them to suffer a backlash leading to a wipeout in the small, very hardline Remain, seats they hold. With the exception of Westmoreland and Lonsdale and Orkney+Shetland the other seats are all places that they’ve won solely on the basis of their pro-Remain message and probably would support rejoining the EU. Or the ones in Scotland on the basis of being the strongest unionist party.

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe it depends on if the other candidates are as useless and out of touch as was the case then?

Depends on your definition of out of touch, Hobhouse is - like Corbyn - out of touch with the traditions of the party but, like Corbyn, far more in touch with the new largely largely single issue membership (EU for Lib Dem’s, wars for Labour).

Without wanting to go too much off topic, that wasn't really why he won in 2015 IMO.

Austerity, welfare cuts, Harman's "too clever by half" posturing are what did it.

[Coldstream]

Maybe it depends on if the other candidates are as useless and out of touch as was the case then?

Depends on your definition of out of touch, Hobhouse is - like Corbyn - out of touch with the traditions of the party but, like Corbyn, far more in touch with the new largely largely single issue membership (EU for Lib Dem’s, wars for Labour).

Without wanting to go too much off topic, that wasn't really why he won in 2015 IMO.

Austerity, welfare cuts, Harman's "too clever by half" posturing are what did it.

That’s what motivated the leadership of Momentum sure, and a chunk of pre-existing members -  but the vast majority of his newly joined supporters came from the mailing lists of the stop the war coalition and the Palestine solidarity campaign. They neither knew nor cared anything about socialist economic policies. 

Hence why it’s the same as the FBPE influx to the Lib Dem’s, they don’t care about the Liberal traditions of the party - they only see it as a vehicle for pushing rejoin. Which is why I think Hobhouse could do it.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Honestly, the notion that the Stop the War Coalition or the Palestine Solidarity Campaign don't care about socialist economic policies is pretty absurd - the former is an SWP front group, the latter is propped up by a combination of trade unions and various far-left groupings.

And Corbyn won by a couple of orders of magnitude more than the membership of both those organisations combined. There's plenty to complain about with regard to some of those who've joined Labour since 2015, but you're wide of the mark here.

[Coldstream]

Honestly, the notion that the Stop the War Coalition or the Palestine Solidarity Campaign don't care about socialist economic policies is pretty absurd - the former is an SWP front group, the latter is propped up by a combination of trade unions and various far-left groupings.

And Corbyn won by a couple of orders of magnitude more than the membership of both those organisations combined. There's plenty to complain about with regard to some of those who've joined Labour since 2015, but you're wide of the mark here.

Getting off topic, but I’ve known rank and file supporters of both of these organisations (far vaster than the actual membership and it was this mailing list that swelled Corbyn’s ranks)   - and the SWP itself - and I’ve never seen any evidence they are socialists at all. Sure the inner circle are Socialists/Communists but the average member isn’t moved by that - it’s why their leaflets are always about war rather than economic theory.

Or at least that socialism is their primary motivator in contrast to Militant in the 80s or the much smaller AWL, CPGB types. All they care about is Palestine, Iraq etc. Just calling yourself a socialist doesn’t make you one, but even if they might prefer Socialism to other economic models it’s just absurd to think they prioritise it - hence why many backed (and were even members of) the Lib Dem’s 2003-2010. I really don’t think it’s controversial if you’ve had any extended interaction with Corbynites to say that Corbyn’s support was/is far more about his foreign policy than his economics. If, say, Crispin Blunt was Tory leader and Mike Gapes was Labour leader, I’m pretty certain they’d vote for Blunt.

Fair enough if you disagree, I can’t exactly prove it empirically without a vast survey of the membership - but I can’t see how if you’ve been to any of these meetings you wouldn’t come away thinking these people don’t care about economics - apart from anything else the overwhelming majority are from middle/upper class backgrounds.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I think this is probably a difference of terminology rather than opinion. I've met very many 'socialists' who are very much in favour of vastly expanding the social safety net and enacting punitive measures against the banks, it's just that they squeal even more than your average Progress member if you suggest that people earning £40k a year ought to be paying more tax...

[Coldstream]

I think this is probably a difference of terminology rather than opinion. I've met very many 'socialists' who are very much in favour of vastly expanding the social safety net and enacting punitive measures against the banks, it's just that they squeal even more than your average Progress member if you suggest that people earning £40k a year ought to be paying more tax...

That’s fair - and what I was getting at. I wouldn’t describe people who’d object to increased taxation on relatively high incomes like that as socialist. It’s essentially the Beveridge style left/radical liberals. I was also at a Momentum event a few weeks ago and I was one of 2/150ish that were members of a trade union.

But my point about new joiners ideology was secondary to my point about the fact that the new joiners were generally not embedded in the history/culture of the Labour Party irrespective of their ideology (imo a few were unreconstructed Communists, some were genuine socialists and most were liberals). Same as the FBPE joiners to the Lib Dem’s, and the Lib Dem’s/Liberals have always had a very idiosyncratic internal party culture anyway.

So that’s why I think Hobhouse is in with a shot similarly to Corbyn’s, given that she’s the only person advocating for the position that motivated most Lib Dem’s to join. Worth pointing out that 9/11 of their seats are ones they’ve only gained since the referendum on the basis largely of their Pro-EU policy, so I can easily see the party embracing a hardliner on the issue.